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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
21

Use of large-scale atmospheric flow patterns to improve forecasting of extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean region for longer-range forecasts

Mastrantonas, Nikolaos 31 May 2023 (has links)
The Mediterranean region frequently experiences extreme precipitation events (EPEs) with devastating consequences for affected societies, economies, and environment. Thus, it is crucial to better understand their characteristics and drivers and improve their predictions at longer lead times. This work provides new insights about the spatiotemporal dependencies of EPEs in the region. It, moreover, implements Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis and subsequent non-hierarchical Kmeans clustering for generating nine distinct weather patterns over the domain, referred to as “Mediterranean patterns”. These patterns are significantly associated with EPEs across the region, and in fact, can be used to extend the forecasting horizon of EPEs. This is demonstrated considering modelled data for all the domain, but also using observational data for Calabria, southern Italy, an area of complex topography that increases the challenges of weather prediction. The results suggest preferential techniques for improving EPEs predictions for short, medium, and extended range forecasts, supporting thus the mitigation of their negative impacts.

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