Thesis (Ph. D.)--Ohio State University, 2004. / Title from first page of PDF file. Document formatted into pages; contains xiii, 121 p.; also includes graphics (some col.) Includes bibliographical references (p. 117-121). Available online via OhioLINK's ETD Center

Thesis (M.A.) - Carleton University, 2007. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 56-64). Also available in electronic format on the Internet.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Wisconsin--Milwaukee, 2002. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 126-134).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Michigan State University, 1989. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 169-179).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 1989. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 113-119).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 2000. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 113-116).

Part I of this thesis is concerned with providing an explanation for the absence of an international monetary agreement since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system. The analysis centers around the proposition that the potential gains are not sufficiently large to induce countries to engage in cooperative exchange rate management. The analysis is undertaken in the context of a two country model in which the monetary authorities of each country intervene in the foreign exchange market with the objective of stabilizing domestic consumption and prices. Non-cooperative behaviour is characterized in terms of the equilibrium intervention strategies associated with Cournot and Stackelberg games, as well as a game in which each player correctly anticipates the responses of his opponent; the principal form of cooperative behaviour considered is the agreement to participate in joint loss minimization. The results of the numerical simulations, used to compare the losses associated with cooperative and non-cooperative intervention strategies, support the proposition that countries behave non-cooperatively because the gains from policy coordination are too small to extract a cooperative effort. The primary objective of Part II is to formulate a quantitative measure of exchange market intervention that- can be used to classify exchange rate practices and to conduct empirical studies of exchange rate policy. The measure that is proposed in this study is an index of exchange market intervention which characterizes exchange rate policy as the proportion of exchange market pressure that is alleviated by an endogenous change in the domestic money supply. Exchange market pressure is measured using a model-consistent generalization of the Girton and Roper (1977) formulation. In order to provide a basis of comparison for future empirical work, the proposed measures of exchange market pressure and exchange market intervention are calculated quarterly for Canada, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, and the United States over the period 1973(I) - 1984(IV). Estimates are obtained for each country on the basis of a multiple-partner small open economy model as well as a model in which interdependence among trading partners is explicitly incorporated. / Arts, Faculty of / Vancouver School of Economics / Graduate

After eight years under the Bretton Woods system, Canada returned to a regime of flexible exchange rates in May 1970. Over the remainder of the decade many other countries joined Canada in adopting flexible rates, and this movement has opened up a fertile new area for study by economists. This dissertation examines the Canadian foreign exchange market from several different points of view. It begins by comparing a number of theoretical models currently found in the literature, showing the common theoretical core from which the models are derived, as well as the differences among them. The models are then estimated using Canadian and U.S. quarterly data over the period 1971-78, and compared to one another on the basis of fit. The dissertation then turns to the question of prediction. Using the models discussed above, and time-series forecasts of the explanatory variables, monthly forecasts of three-month-ahead exchange rates are constructed for the period 1974-78. Care is taken to ensure that all forecasts are based only on information available to the market at the time the forecast was to have been made. The forecasts of the three-month-ahead exchange rate are compared to one another and also to the three-month forward rate, which is taken to be the market's forecast of the future value of the exchange rate. It is shown that the models' forecasts and the forward rate each contain separate information valuable in forecasting the future spot rate. The models and the forward rate are combined to produce a set of 'optimal' forecasts. The final chapter of the dissertation focuses on speculation and market efficiency. It is shown that the forecasts can be combined with a crude betting strategy to produce speculative profits over the sixty periods from 1974-78. No conventional measure of risk can be constructed, but it is shown that the probability of mean returns being negative after sixty bets is less than one percent. When transaction costs are taken into account, speculative returns are reduced, but the probability of average returns being negative after sixty bets remains less than one percent. Thus all of the estimated models appear to contain information that was not efficiently used by participants in the foreign exchange market between 1974 and 1978. Subsequent research will be required to tell whether this represents a learning period for market participants, or whether exchange market participants will continue to undervalue available information. / Arts, Faculty of / Vancouver School of Economics / Graduate

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