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No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) elton_silva_resende.pdf: 1929897 bytes, checksum: fde632052ca1e821e00cfdb4bb839253 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017 / Objetivou-se analisar e mensurar o desempenho econ?mico plurianual da atividade leiteira a partir de dados obtidos de seis propriedades leiteiras, situadas na regi?o do munic?pio de Montes Claros-MG entre os anos de 2007 e 2012. Al?m disso, visou-se desenvolver um software de simula??es que permitisse a avalia??o econ?mica e a viabilidade de projetos no aux?lio ? tomada de decis?es. Foram realizadas an?lises de dados de despesas, receitas e ?ndices zoot?cnicos como porcentagem de vacas em lacta??o, dias em lacta??o, produ??o total di?ria, produ??o m?dia de vacas em lacta??o, produ??o m?dia total do rebanho, rela??o matriz/funcion?rio, rela??o leite/funcion?rio, produ??o/hectare/ano e intervalo de partos de cada propriedade. Posteriormente, foi determinada a m?dia regional anual para an?lise do comportamento da atividade na regi?o durante os anos, por meio de correla??es multivariadas. As propriedades foram estratificadas em fun??o do n?mero de vacas no rebanho e, por teste de m?dias foram estabelecidas as diferen?as entre os principais indicadores zoot?cnicos e econ?micos. Na determina??o do custo de produ??o foi utilizada a metodologia do custo operacional. O software, por sua vez, foi desenvolvido em linguagem computacional Basic, com aux?lio de ferramentas administrativas na estrutura??o do algoritmo de viabilidade econ?mica de projetos. Foram adicionados ao algoritmo equa??es para realiza??o de teste de sensibilidade e an?lise de riscos segundo m?todo de simula??o de Monte Carlo. A an?lise plurianual dos componentes zoot?cnicos e econ?micos evidenciou elevado n?vel de intera??o dos indicadores zoot?cnicos no comportamento dos indicadores econ?micos avaliados. O fator gerencial esteve atuante na determina??o dos indicadores zoot?cnicos e, consequentemente, nos indicadores econ?micos. A produ??o de leite anual foi superior no intervalo de estratos de maior tamanho, demandando maiores custos com alimentos concentrados e maiores investimentos de capital para obten??o de m?dias superiores para receita, margem bruta e margem l?quida. O algoritmo implementado ao submodelo econ?mico gera dados condizentes, auxiliando a tomada de decis?es na elabora??o de projetos da atividade leiteira. O software desenvolvido possui interface amig?vel, permitindo a intera??o m?quina usu?rio. / Disserta??o (Mestrado) ? Programa de P?s-Gradua??o em Zootecnia, Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, 2017. / The objective was to analyze and measure the multiannual economic performance of milk production through economic indicators and its correlation with some zootechnical indicators, based on data obtained from six dairy farms located near to Montes Claros- MG, Brazil, between 2007 and 2012. In addition, it was aimed the development of a simulation software, with a mathematical algorithm, capable of performing the economic evaluation and feasibility of projects in dairy farms, in the aid of decision-making. Were analyzed data of expenses, income and zootechnical indexes of the six properties. The following zootechnical indexes were determined and analyzed: percentage of lactating cows, days in lactation, total daily production, and average production of lactating cows, total average herd production, matrix/employee ratio, milk/employee ratio, yield/hectare/year and interval of deliveries of each property. After that, the annual regional average was determined to analyze the behavior of the activity in the region during the years. To determine the cost of production, the operational cost methodology. To determine the complete inventory of the goods, the methodology proposed by Lopes et al. (2004). The annual depreciation was calculated in a linear way and did not consider the depreciation of matrices, nor of the property. Revenue from the activity consisted of the sale of milk, sub-products, the sale of animals and the variation of animal inventory. The following economic efficiency indicators were determined: gross margin, net margin and profitability. Multivariate correlations were made of the zootechnical indexes with the indicators of economic efficiency and operational costs. The properties were classified according to the number of cows in the herd, and by average test the differences between the main size, zootechnical and economic indicators were established. The software was developed in Basic computational language, it was used administrative tools for structuring the economic feasibility of projects algorithm. Equations were added to the algorithm in order to perform sensitivity test and risk analysis according to the Monte Carlo simulation method. The properties with more than 100 cows in the herd had a higher average of lactating cows than the others, but properties with up to 80 cows in the herd obtained a similar average to the properties of over 100 cows in the herd. The annual milk production was higher in the range with properties with more than 100 cows in the herd, demanding higher costs, including expenses with concentrated feed and higher capital investment to obtain higher averages of revenue, gross margin and net margin.