According to the USDA, there were 52.7 million marketings of cattle through live and internet auction markets and other venues in 2005. With the national average herd size at 43 head, most producers have limited bargaining power when it comes to marketing and auctioning their cattle. This has led to the birth of numerous value added cattle programs in the U.S. Value added programs are named as such, because they add additional value to the cattle before they are sold, but this value is difficult to quantify. The objective of this research was to measure the value of characteristics of feeder cattle sold through auction markets and special source verified feeder cattle sales, specifically the value of participating in these value added programs. Data over seven years from regular and special feeder cattle sales at Joplin Regional Stockyards were used. The effects of explanatory variables on sale price were analyzed using ordinary least squares regression hedonic model. Type of sale, seasonality, cyclical effects, lot size, weight, breed type, sex, commingling, fed cattle futures price, and corn price were all found to have an impact on the sale price of feeder cattle. Feeder calves sold through MFA Health Track Beef Alliance and other value added programs received a premium over those calves that sold through regular sales and the premiums for MFA and other value added programs were statistically different. Commingled lots of feeder cattle received a discount in comparison with non-commingled lots, but a lot size of 17 head would offset the negative effect of commingling. The predictive power of the hedonic model was tested using out of sample forecasting. The mean absolute percent error and root mean square error are indicators of the ability of the model to forecast sale price based on the measured impact of the explanatory variables. When the hedonic model was used for forecasting the out of sample data, the MAPE was 7.84 and the RMSE was 10.48.

According to the USDA, there were 52.7 million marketings of cattle through live and internet auction markets and other venues in 2005. With the national average herd size at 43 head, most producers have limited bargaining power when it comes to marketing and auctioning their cattle. This has led to the birth of numerous value added cattle programs in the U.S. Value added programs are named as such, because they add additional value to the cattle before they are sold, but this value is difficult to quantify. The objective of this research was to measure the value of characteristics of feeder cattle sold through auction markets and special source verified feeder cattle sales, specifically the value of participating in these value added programs. Data over seven years from regular and special feeder cattle sales at Joplin Regional Stockyards were used. The effects of explanatory variables on sale price were analyzed using ordinary least squares regression hedonic model. Type of sale, seasonality, cyclical effects, lot size, weight, breed type, sex, commingling, fed cattle futures price, and corn price were all found to have an impact on the sale price of feeder cattle. Feeder calves sold through MFA Health Track Beef Alliance and other value added programs received a premium over those calves that sold through regular sales and the premiums for MFA and other value added programs were statistically different. Commingled lots of feeder cattle received a discount in comparison with non-commingled lots, but a lot size of 17 head would offset the negative effect of commingling. The predictive power of the hedonic model was tested using out of sample forecasting. The mean absolute percent error and root mean square error are indicators of the ability of the model to forecast sale price based on the measured impact of the explanatory variables. When the hedonic model was used for forecasting the out of sample data, the MAPE was 7.84 and the RMSE was 10.48.

Master of Science / Department of Agricultural Economics / Ted C. Schroeder / With volatile cattle markets, comes substantial amounts of price risk for all parties involved in the industry. Hedging with futures markets to mitigate risk is a common practice performed by commercial producers. For this to be an effective risk management tool, the futures contract must function correctly by accurately representing the price and quality of the underlying product. Often times, commodity futures contracts are settled by physical delivery. However, two livestock contracts transitioned to a cash settled index, feeder cattle in 1986 and lean hogs in 1997, to enhance the performance of the contract and promote participation by commercial users. Eliminating high delivery costs, reducing any issues with the grading process when the product is delivered, and portraying a truer commercial value, are some of the benefits of a cash settlement index. There has been some speculation that dates back to the 1980’s regarding whether the live cattle futures contract should switch to cash settlement rather than physical delivery. This study was done to measure the impact the change to cash settlement had on the hedging ability of the feeder cattle futures contract. Even though the feeder cattle contract represents a different sector of the industry, the results still provide some insight as to whether cash settlement can be advantageous for a futures contract. The ability to forecast basis is critical when hedging with futures to manage risk. The magnitude of basis prediction error (BPE), or the difference between expected basis and actual basis, is a common method used to measure the hedging ability of a futures contract. This procedure was utilized to analyze the effects the change to cash settlement had on BPE in six different regions: Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, North/South Dakota, Oklahoma, and Texas. Expected basis was calculated using a two, three, and four year historical average technique for each respective week to contract expiration. Other market factors were also included in the models to ensure the cash settlement adjustment was not the sole reason for BPE variations over time. To estimate the impact the different elements have on basis predictability, Ordinary Least Squares regression was used for each of the three stacked models. For the two-year historical basis prediction error model, Kansas was the only area with a statistically significant value indicating cash settlement reduced BPE by $0.18. Three states, Kansas (-$0.24/cwt.), Missouri (-$0.17/cwt.), and Texas (-$0.16/cwt.), showed a statistically significant decrease in BPE due to cash settlement for the three-year historical basis prediction error model. Also, the coefficient for Oklahoma was just slightly above the statistically significant level. However, the four-year model had moderately different results. The estimate for Kansas was statistically significant at -$0.18/cwt. meaning cash settlement reduced BPE, while the Dakotas region actually showed a statistically significant increase in BPE by $0.18/cwt. This research provides evidence that cash settlement can improve the basis predictability of a futures contract depending on the region and technique used to calculate expected basis.

Traditional factors known to affect feeder cattle prices, such as corn prices, have been questioned recently given the volatile nature of agricultural markets and some recent research findings. This work utilizes two very current and unique datasets to examine feeder cattle pricing relationships from Kentucky internet auctions and Certified Preconditioned for Health (CPH) sales. In addition to examining traditional pricing factors, factors that affect feeder cattle basis were also examined. Basis questions are of great interest in the southeast as transportation costs to major cattle feeding areas have been impacted by rising fuel prices and increased market volatility. Finally, price premiums were examined for cattle selling as age and source verified and natural. Results suggested that traditional factors were still found to influence feeder cattle prices, with some evidence that the magnitude of these effects may be smaller. Basis factors were found to be relevant; specifically fuel price was found to have a negative effect on basis in internet sales. This finding was also consistent with weaker basis in areas further away from the Midwest. Finally, premiums for age and source verification were moderate, roughly $11 per head for age and source verified calves, $17 per head for natural calves, and about $32 per head for cattle with both attributes.

Master of Science / Department of Agricultural Economics / Ted Schroeder / Feeder cattle are placed into feedlots at varying weights. This placement weight is the result of procurement decisions by cattle feeders and of marketing decisions by cow/calf and stocker/backgrounder producers. Increased understanding of the behavior of these markets can help both buyers and sellers of feeder cattle make these decisions. Past research has used linear or quadratic variables or interaction variables in order to model the effects of weight on price. This study instead divides the market for feeder cattle into ten distinct subsets which are evaluated independently. The feeder cattle market for four major cattle feeding states in the Southern Great Plains (Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas) was divided into ten subsets, five in each gender. Each of these represent feeder cattle coming to market in a 50 pound weight range, centered upon 525, 625, 725, 825 and 925 pounds. Each of these subsets was analyzed using seven independent variables selected based upon previous research and economic rationale. These variables were the live futures price, previous feedlot returns, feeder cattle inventory, interest rate, feedlot capacity utilization, cost of gain and pasture conditions. The data for these variables were collected from public sources, aggregated into monthly observations and differenced to correct for nonstationarity. Analysis was conducted using ordinary least squares regressions. Results are reported and trends between weight classes discussed along with their implications. Findings support that feeder cattle of different weights are not perfect substitutes and that market and production factors do not influence all weights of feeder cattle the same. In fact, factors which positively and negatively affect feeder cattle price seem to signal that demand for, or in the case of pasture supply of, feeder cattle of a particular weight has changed and that placement price-weight relationships will adjust accordingly.

Kentucky plays an important role in the complex U.S. beef cattle industry. Thisstudy focused on the feeder cattle production sector of Kentucky's beef cattle industry.Primarily a cow-calf state with a substantial backgrounding sector, Kentucky is a largesupplier of feeder cattle to the cattle finishing sector. Price relationships within themarket for Kentucky feeder cattle were examined using historical price data fromKentucky livestock auction markets. This research revealed many interesting pricerelationships that Kentucky producers may use in order to increase the profitability of thecow-calf and/or backgrounding operations. A segment of this research includes aGrazing Management Decision Tool which was constructed to enable producers toevaluate the potential profitability of various grazing scenarios using current marketforecasts.

This thesis consists of two research papers, each of which studies the benefits from a different College of Agriculture and Life Sciences (CALS) program. These analyses provide necessary information to allocate resources efficiently among programs. The first paper studies the Virginia Quality Assured feeder cattle certification program and its effects on feeder cattle prices and profitability. No significant effect on price from VQA certification is found. However, enterprise budgets indicate that VQA cattle allow higher farm profits due to their lower sale weight, which allows for faster turnover and lower prices. The second paper studies the benefits to producers from wheat and barley breeding conducted by Virginia Tech researchers. Variety trial data are combined with acreage estimates constructed from royalty data to estimate gains from replacement of old varieties with new ones. The study finds that the program generated benefits to producers of over $119 million between 2000 and 2018. / Master of Science / This thesis contains two papers that assessed the benefits of two agricultural research and extension programs at Virginia Tech. The first paper studies the Virginia Quality Assured certification program. This program certifies cattle that have been raised following practices that are designed to result in cattle that will grow faster and stay healthier in a feedlot. Statistical analysis of cattle sold through a Virginia telephone auction show that VQA certified cattle do not receive higher prices than uncertified cattle, but the analysis also finds that certified and uncertified cattle have important physical differences, including lighter weights for certified cattle. These lighter weights make it possible for farmers to sell more VQA cattle in a year because they spend less time gaining weight before being sold, giving producers of VQA cattle the opportunity for higher profits per year. The second paper studies the benefits to farmers from wheat and barley breeding by Virginia Tech researchers. Field trials are used to compare the yields of old and new varieties, and acreage estimates are used to show how newer varieties replace older ones in farmers' fields. The study finds that economic benefits to farmers from new varieties released by the program total $119 million from 2000 to 2018.

Kentucky plays a vital role in the beef supply chain. The cow/calf producers,back-grounding operations, and order buying industry are important parts of Kentucky'sagricultural economy. Basis risk is an issue that affects these groups in a negative way. Agood estimate of the expected basis must be available to make hedging efficient.Simulations were performed on Kentucky price data to determine the effectiveness ofshort hedging for Kentucky producers. A model was also used to describe some of thefactors that determine basis levels. The research revealed that it is difficult to predictbasis within an acceptable range to make short hedging with futures efficient. Eventhough short hedging reduced variability in net price, it was difficult to lock in a profit.Various options and spread strategies were presented as alternative hedging tools thatwould protect cattle producers from unexpected price declines.

Master of Science / Department of Agricultural Economics / Ted C. Schroeder / Value-added management at the cow-calf level is integrated across breeding, health and nutrition programs. Hedonic pricing models are necessary to navigate through the layered management standards imposed by certified health and marketing programs on the cow-calf sector. Previous research in feeder calf pricing models provides insight on the use and development of ordinary least squares in estimating price effects. Breed, vaccination program, age-and-source verification and natural-beef production have become more relevant as vertical coordination has influenced commercial cow-calf producers. This study provides the industry with new information pertaining to the revenue opportunities that exist for cow-calf producers through increased coordination in the beef industry. Video and satellite auction markets are recognized as a national pricing mechanism for feeder cattle in the United States. These markets represent the management and marketing practices of national cow-calf producers and the tastes and preferences of a national stocker and feedlot industry. Previous research in feeder cattle pricing models is applied to the current genetic, management, marketing and market structure information from video auction markets to discover relevant price effects pertaining to value-added calf production. More intensive value-added management practices were expected to enhance the revenue of cow-calf producers selling their calves through video auction markets. This research confirms that verified health and genetic claims produce higher calf prices compared to commodity calves. Weaned calves with at least two rounds of respiratory vaccinations generated an additional $5.50 to $7.50 per cwt., and weaning created $2.75 to $4.50 per cwt. in premiums over non-certified health programs. There were statistical differences among the premiums for each aggregated breed influence, and Angus and black and black-white faced cattle offered the highest breed premiums at $5.25 to $7.50 per cwt. compared to Brahman-influenced calves. Age-and-source verification presents the best opportunity for video auction market premiums among recently developed marketing programs. Statistically significant premiums ranged from $1.25 to $2.00 per cwt. for both steers and heifers over the last five years.

The goal of the thesis is to evaluate the degree of efficiency of the particular markets and to apply the methods of fundamental and technical analysis on them in order to assess their efficiency in terms of profitablity. The thesis analyses the degree of long-term memory of the particular commodities and stock indices via Hurst coefficient. Afterwards fundamental and technical methods are applied to the market with the highest degree of long-term memory, which is the feeder cattle market. Indidivual methods from both disciplines are being applied at first, after wich a combnation of both is appleid as well. The result is the discovery, whether combining the two approaches leads to a higher profitability of the trading strategy. At the end the effect of transacton costs is also evalauted and a final conclusion is made regarding the profit potential of both methods for the case of individual Czech investor.