Master of Science / Department of Agricultural Economics / Ted C. Schroeder / With volatile cattle markets, comes substantial amounts of price risk for all parties involved in the industry. Hedging with futures markets to mitigate risk is a common practice performed by commercial producers. For this to be an effective risk management tool, the futures contract must function correctly by accurately representing the price and quality of the underlying product. Often times, commodity futures contracts are settled by physical delivery. However, two livestock contracts transitioned to a cash settled index, feeder cattle in 1986 and lean hogs in 1997, to enhance the performance of the contract and promote participation by commercial users. Eliminating high delivery costs, reducing any issues with the grading process when the product is delivered, and portraying a truer commercial value, are some of the benefits of a cash settlement index. There has been some speculation that dates back to the 1980’s regarding whether the live cattle futures contract should switch to cash settlement rather than physical delivery. This study was done to measure the impact the change to cash settlement had on the hedging ability of the feeder cattle futures contract. Even though the feeder cattle contract represents a different sector of the industry, the results still provide some insight as to whether cash settlement can be advantageous for a futures contract. The ability to forecast basis is critical when hedging with futures to manage risk. The magnitude of basis prediction error (BPE), or the difference between expected basis and actual basis, is a common method used to measure the hedging ability of a futures contract. This procedure was utilized to analyze the effects the change to cash settlement had on BPE in six different regions: Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, North/South Dakota, Oklahoma, and Texas. Expected basis was calculated using a two, three, and four year historical average technique for each respective week to contract expiration. Other market factors were also included in the models to ensure the cash settlement adjustment was not the sole reason for BPE variations over time. To estimate the impact the different elements have on basis predictability, Ordinary Least Squares regression was used for each of the three stacked models. For the two-year historical basis prediction error model, Kansas was the only area with a statistically significant value indicating cash settlement reduced BPE by $0.18. Three states, Kansas (-$0.24/cwt.), Missouri (-$0.17/cwt.), and Texas (-$0.16/cwt.), showed a statistically significant decrease in BPE due to cash settlement for the three-year historical basis prediction error model. Also, the coefficient for Oklahoma was just slightly above the statistically significant level. However, the four-year model had moderately different results. The estimate for Kansas was statistically significant at -$0.18/cwt. meaning cash settlement reduced BPE, while the Dakotas region actually showed a statistically significant increase in BPE by $0.18/cwt. This research provides evidence that cash settlement can improve the basis predictability of a futures contract depending on the region and technique used to calculate expected basis.

台灣期貨交易所於92年1月20日推出到期採實物交割的股票選擇權契約，希望能提供市場更豐富、更多元的避險以及套利機能。然自股票選擇權推出以來，市場成交量並未如預期般蓬勃發展，便失去台灣期貨交易所推出股票選擇權之用意，不能使其充分發揮其多元之避險套利機能。多數人主觀認為，採用現金交割方式的衍生性金融商品容易受到人為操縱。一般而言，研究市場的人為操縱因子多以報酬波動率及到期日效應作為觀察指標，因此商品之交割方式與報酬波動率及到期日效應有一定之關聯。然而近來國外許多相關研究發現，採實物交割與現金交割，對股票選擇權的到期日效應並未產生差異，反而是透過結算制度的設計，可以有效降低人為操縱的機率。本研究旨在研究股票選擇權改採現金交割之可行性分析，研究到期日採現金交割是否就是增加人為操縱機率的主要因素，且到期日效應與到期交割方式是否又有絕對的關係？而根據文獻了解，到期日報酬波動率與受人為操縱之跡象是呈現正向關係。 / 因此本研究對指數期貨在到期日與非到期日時對指數現貨價格以及個股股價報酬波動率的影響程度進行實證分析，以報酬波動率之異常現象判斷是否有所謂到期日效應。 本研究實證結果指出，在台指期貨到期日報酬波動率和摩根台指期貨到期日的報酬波動率實證結果發現所有樣本在台指期貨到期日的報酬波動率都顯著高於摩根台指期貨到期日的報酬波動率。顯示台指期貨結算制度雖為到期日下一交易日開盤前十五分鐘個股成交量加權平均價結算，但並未有效降低異常報酬波動率的發生。根據國外研究結果發現，個股期貨能降低到期日效應之影響。此外，採實物交割與現金交割，對股票選擇權的到期日效應並未產生差異。為了降低到期日效應且提升市場的效率性，建議股票選擇權改為現金交割之外，尚可考慮開放個股期貨的交易。 / Taiwan Futures Exchange launched stock options on January 20, 2003, hoping to provide the market with more hedging and arbitraging opportunities. However, the trading volume does not grow as was expected. The low trading volume does not meet Taiwan Futures Exchange’s goal to provide the market with hedging and arbitraging mechanism. Most people think that derivatives applying cash settlement lead to manipulation. Researchers studying manipulations take the volatility of returns and expiration effects as the factors of their studies. However, some recent studies suggest applying cash settlement or physical settlement does not have much impact on expiration effects, while applying proper settlement system can reduce manipulation. / This research investigated the possibility of stock options applying cash settlement and examined the volatility of returns of stock indexes and stock prices during settlement and non-settlement days to determine if expiration effects exist. In this study, we found the volatilities of returns of all samples during TAIFEX settlement days are significantly higher than the volatilities of returns during SIMEX settlement days. All of our samples have significant higher volatilities of returns during TAIFEX settlement days and SIMEX settlement days except CMO, which does not have significant higher volatility of returns during SIMEX settlement days. Other researches point out the adopting of stock futures reduces the expiration effects. Furthermore, adopting cash settlement or physical settlement does have much impact on expiration effects. To decrease the expiration effect and to increase the effectiveness of the market, this study proposes the adoption of cash settlement and the launching of stock futures.

我國公債期貨市場發展至今，市場流動性未能有效提振，本文將針對此問題嘗試從市場結構、實務狀況、相關學理等各方面，探討諸多可能的影響因素，並加以分析研究，找出問題的癥結以提供解決之道。此外，本文亦從問券調查的結果中，歸納出市場參予者對現行公債期貨的看法，希冀能作為台灣期貨交易所未來商品規劃之參考。 / Since the Taiwan government bond futures trade, the market is lack of liquidity during the year. For the problem, this paper considers the layers of market structure, trading convention and relative theories, try to analysis the causes of less liquidity and resolve the liquidity problem. On the other hand, by making the survey this paper sums up the opinions from the participants of the bond futures market. This paper, which could help the Taiwan Futures Exchange in designing other interest rate derivatives, will wish to give some useful reference.