Interest rate futures have been traded in TAIFEX (Taiwan Futures Exchange) since 2004, but its trading volume is relatively behind expected. However, based on the scale of cash market and the hedge demand for bond, interest rate futures should have potential to boom. According to the definition of Success or Failure of future contract and suggestion to Taiwan interest rate future, this project intends to analyze Bond Futue and Commerical paper future through six parts: ¡§the size of cash market¡¨, ¡§Trading volume and cash price¡¨, ¡§Concentration in cash market¡¨, ¡§cash and future price¡¨, ¡§Trading volume of interest rate future¡¨, ¡§Cross Hedge Market¡¨. Then searching the dependent variable is suitable for practical model. This article is based on model of Black(1986), which trading volume as independent variable and hedge ratio, cash price, and size of cash market as dependent variable, and add ¡§Promtional policy to interest rate future¡¨, ¡§Trading volume of substitue contract¡¨, ¡§Concentraction ratio of large four traders¡¨ to be new dependent variable. The result reveals thar the key factor to influence trading volume is¡§Promtional policy to interest rate future¡¨, and trading volume of interest rate future will fall without promotion policy. The relation between trading volume and ¡§liquidity of cross hedge market¡¨ is significantly negative, hedgers prefer to use cross hedge than interest rate future. ¡§The size of cash market¡¨ and trading volume are significantly positive. The larger size of cash market is, the less price control power of traders will get.

我國公債期貨市場發展至今，市場流動性未能有效提振，本文將針對此問題嘗試從市場結構、實務狀況、相關學理等各方面，探討諸多可能的影響因素，並加以分析研究，找出問題的癥結以提供解決之道。此外，本文亦從問券調查的結果中，歸納出市場參予者對現行公債期貨的看法，希冀能作為台灣期貨交易所未來商品規劃之參考。 / Since the Taiwan government bond futures trade, the market is lack of liquidity during the year. For the problem, this paper considers the layers of market structure, trading convention and relative theories, try to analysis the causes of less liquidity and resolve the liquidity problem. On the other hand, by making the survey this paper sums up the opinions from the participants of the bond futures market. This paper, which could help the Taiwan Futures Exchange in designing other interest rate derivatives, will wish to give some useful reference.