Submitted by Automa??o e Estat?stica (sst@bczm.ufrn.br) on 2017-02-02T14:15:51Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MarcosSamuelMatiasRibeiro_DISSERT.pdf: 2699745 bytes, checksum: 80cd838093ed1b4868d57e0aa32b1384 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Arlan Eloi Leite Silva (eloihistoriador@yahoo.com.br) on 2017-02-08T21:46:51Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 MarcosSamuelMatiasRibeiro_DISSERT.pdf: 2699745 bytes, checksum: 80cd838093ed1b4868d57e0aa32b1384 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-02-08T21:46:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 MarcosSamuelMatiasRibeiro_DISSERT.pdf: 2699745 bytes, checksum: 80cd838093ed1b4868d57e0aa32b1384 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-05-30 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior (CAPES) / Os Desastres Naturais (DN) s?o estabelecidos pela ocorr?ncia de fen?menos naturais em ?reas ou regi?es habitadas, e caracterizados pelo fato de seu impacto causar danos ? popula??o afetada. Caso n?o apresente danos ? sociedade ou aconte?a em ?reas n?o ocupadas, o fen?meno ? considerado apenas um evento natural. As ocorr?ncias de Desastres Naturais originam grandes problemas e preju?zos para as sociedades afetadas, al?m de ocasionar grandes perdas humanas. O objetivo do trabalho ? realizar uma an?lise das ocorr?ncias dos DN nas dezenove microrregi?es do estado do Rio Grande do Norte, no per?odo de1991 a2012, tra?ando um paralelo com os registros ao longo do tempo dos limiares de precipita??o. Utilizou-se de t?cnicas estat?sticas, como an?lise espacial para a constru??o de mapas tem?ticos de forma a identificar ?reas com maior risco, e o teste de qui-quadrado para verificar associa??es entre as vari?veis. O ?ndice de Precipita??o Padronizado (SPI) foi considerado, objetivando evidenciar as condi??es meteorol?gicas das ?reas analisadas no momento da publica??o dos Decretos de Estado de Emerg?ncia ou Calamidade P?blica. Os resultados demonstraram um aumento expressivo de 98,7% nos registros das ocorr?ncias para o Estado, uma vez que nos 11 (onze) primeiros anos foram registrados 535 ocorr?ncias e nos 11 anos subsequentes foram registrados 1.063, com um total de 2.447.683 pessoas afetadas por DN. Para o Estado, os fen?menos que apresentaram maior frequ?ncia foram: as estiagem/seca (81,1%), as enxurradas e as inunda??es (18,9%), provenientes das rela??es de fatores com caracter?sticas entre o natural e social. Os dados apresentaram rela??es estatisticamente significativas entre as ocorr?ncias para os dois per?odos em an?lise, bem como sua rela??o com a precipita??o m?dia acumulada anual. A compreens?o deste comportamento ao longo do tempo levar? as autoridades competentes, a identificar as condi??es que se encontra a sociedade, possibilitando no direcionamento de a??es e pol?ticas p?blicas eficazes na gest?o para a mitiga??o do risco a desastres naturais. / The Natural Disasters (DN) are established by the occurrence of natural phenomena in areas or regions inhabited, and characterized by the fact that its impact damage to the affected population. If undamaged to the company or happen in areas not occupied, the phenomenon is considered just a natural event. The Natural Disaster occurrences originate great problems and damage to the affected societies besides causing great human losses. The objective is to analyze the occurrence of DN in nineteen micro-regions of Rio Grande do Norte state, in the period 1991-2012, drawing a parallel with the records over time of rainfall thresholds. We used statistical techniques, as a spatial analysis to build thematic maps to identify areas with increased risk, and the chi-square test to verify associations between variables. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was considered, aiming to highlight the weather conditions of the areas analyzed at the time of publication of Decree of the State of Emergency and Public Calamity. The results showed a significant increase of 98,7% in the records of events for the state, once in eleven (11) years were first registered 535 occurrences and the subsequent 11 years were recorded 1.063, a total of 2.447,683 people affected by DN. For the state, the phenomena that most frequently presented were: the drought / dry (81,1%), flash floods and floods (18,9%), from the relations of factors with characteristics between the natural and social. The data show statistically significant relationships between the occurrences for the two periods, and its relationship with the annual cumulative average rainfall. Understanding this behavior over time will lead the competent authorities, to identify the conditions that is society, enabling the direct actions and effective public policies in the management to mitigate the risk of natural disasters.