This study investigates the implications of financial dollarization for inflation targeting framework. To this end, monetary policy rule, inflation targeting performance and international reserves equations are estimated for twenty four inflation targeting countries with different levels of financial dollarization. The results based on the panel data estimations indicate that monetary policy rule and behavior of accumulating international reserves are affected by the degree of financial dollarization. Furthermore, the study finds that inflation targeting performance is not affected by the level of financial dollarization. Consequently, the empirical analysis suggests that even if financial dollarization does not affect the inflation targeting performance, it does affect the monetary policy rule and the variables to be taken into account to reach the target.

The purpose of this study is to analyze financial dollarization phenomenon in the Turkish economy since the beginning of 1990&rsquo / s based on Ize and Levy Yeyati&rsquo / s (2003) minimum variance portfolio (MVP) framework. Financial dollarization, steamed by unfavorable macroeconomic conditions and uncertainties, is revealed by the experiences of recent banking and financial crisis as carrying significant drawbacks such that it complicates economic policy implementation and contains the seeds of fragility for the whole economy as well. Although, considerable progress has been achieved in reducing inflation levels and sustaining macroeconomic stability, financial dollarization displays rather an enduring stance. MVP approach is based on optimizing the currency composition of financial contracts depending on the risk and the return profile of agents&rsquo / portfolios. According to this approach, financial dollarization is an increasing function of the inflation volatility and a decreasing function of the real exchange rate volatility. In line with this framework, financial dollarization in the Turkish economy during 1990-2011 period is studied by also considering other important macroeconomic risk indicators and it is tried to shed some light on the success of inflation targeting policy in dealing with dollarization phenomenon.

This study aims to investigate currency substitution and financial dollarization in Turkey. The extend of dollarization in Turkey appears to be very high according to both the conventional currency substitution and the recently developed financial dollarization measures. This has serious policy implications as a source of financial fragility through currency/maturity mismatches and balance sheet effects. The empirical part of this study contained an investigation of the long run relationships between the variables in a system containing currency substitution ratio, expected exchange rate change and rates of return on domestic and foreign currency denominated assets. The results of the Johansen cointegration analysis based on quarterly data for the 1987-2004 period appeared not to be strongly supporting the General Portfolio Balance Model (GPBM). The theoretical part of this study suggests that the GPBM can be reduced to the Sequential Portfolio Balance Model (SPBM) under the uncovered interest parity (UIP) hypothesis. Consequently, the GPBM may be misleading under UIP. The Johansen cointegration results suggested the validity of the UIP for the Turkish data. The estimation of the SPBM suggested that there is a long-run relationship between currency substitution and expected exchange rate change in Turkey. The elasticity of currency substitution appeared to be high but consistent with those estimated for other high inflation developing countries. The results further supported the presence of a ratchet/hysteresis effect proxied by a trend variable. All these results are consistent with the argument that currency substitution and financial dollarization are important especially in high inflation countries.

Financial dollarization, defined as the substantial presence of foreign currency denominated assets and liabilities in the balance sheets of the main sectors of an economy, is a widespread phenomenon among developing economies, especially in Latin America and Turkey. Since financial dollarization often causes financial fragility and limits the effectiveness of monetary policy, the causes and consequences of it and dedollarization strategies have been placed at the forefront of policy debates especially in developing countries. The purpose of this study is to analyse the determinants of corporate sector asset and liability dollarization in ten Latin American countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela) and Turkey for the period 1990-2001. To this end, this study considers the effects of monetary policy stance (exchange rate flexibility and adoption of a de facto inflation targeting regime), institutional structure (governance) and macroeconomic stance variables (volatilities of inflation and real effective exchange rates) on financial dollarization. The results based on panel data estimations suggest that high and volatile inflation and depreciation of domestic currency induce a switch to dollar denominated assets and liabilities. Furthermore, exchange rate regime flexibility appears to reduce liability dollarization and encourage asset dollarization. Finally, the empirical analysis supports the hypothesis that adoption of inflation targeting regime and strengthening the institutional structure are significant in decreasing the level of financial dollarization.

La presente investigación analiza si la volatilidad del tipo de cambio, condicionada a la intervención cambiaria del Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, conlleva a generar un fallo en la disminución de la dolarización de los créditos en el Perú. Se desarrolla un modelo VAR bajo diferentes especificaciones que se diferencian por tipo de crédito y variable proxy de volatilidad cambiaria, realizando análisis de impulso-respuesta y descomposición de varianza. Los resultados confirman la hipótesis de que la limitada volatilidad del tipo de cambio, debido a la intervención cambiaria, genera un fallo en la disminución de la dolarización de los créditos hipotecarios y de consumo, ya que estas presentan una relación negativa. / This research analyzes whether the volatility of the exchange rate, conditioned to the exchange rate intervention of the Central Bank of Peru, leads to generating a failure in the de-dollarization of credits in Peru. A VAR model is developed under different specifications that differ by type of credit and exchange rate volatility proxy variable, performing impulse-response analysis and variance decomposition. The results confirm the hypothesis that the limited volatility of the exchange rate, due to the exchange rate intervention, generates a failure in the de-dollarization process of mortgage and consumer loans, since these present a negative relationship. / Trabajo de investigación

Cette thèse s'intéresse aux questions d'accès aux marchés financiers dans les économies émergentes et en développement. La première partie donne un aperçu général des conséquences macroéconomiques de l'un des régimes de politique monétaire le plus favorable au marché - le ciblage d'inflation - en utilisant le cadre d'analyse de la méta-analyse. La deuxième partie analyse le risque et la stabilité des marchés obligataires des États. La troisième et dernière partie examine les effets disciplinaires résultant de la participation aux marchés obligataires souverains. Plusieurs résultats émergent. Au chapitre 1, les résultats indiquent que la littérature sur les effets macroéconomiques du ciblage d'inflation est sujette à des biais de publication. Après avoir purgé ces biais, le véritable effet du ciblage d'inflation reste statistiquement et économiquement significatif à la fois sur le niveau de l'inflation et la volatilité de la croissance économique, mais ne l’est pas sur la volatilité de l'inflation ou le taux de croissance économique réel. Aussi, les caractéristiques des études déterminent l’hétérogénéité des résultats de l'impact du ciblage d’inflation dans les études primaires. Le chapitre 2 montre que l'adoption d'un régime de ciblage d'inflation réduit le risque souverain dans les pays émergents. Cependant, cet effet varie systématiquement en fonction du cycle économique, de la politique budgétaire suivie, du niveau de développement et de la durée dans le ciblage. Le chapitre 3 montre que les envois de fonds des migrants, contrairement aux flux d'aide au développement, permettent de réduire le risque souverain. Cette réduction est plus marquée dans un pays avec un système financier moins développé, un degré d'ouverture commerciale élevé, un espace budgétaire faible et sans effet dans les pays dépendants des envois de fonds. Le chapitre 4 montre que les pays ayant des contrats d’échange sur risque de crédit sur leurs dettes sont plus sujets à des crises de dette. Il constate également que cet effet reste sensible aux caractéristiques structurelles des pays. Le chapitre 5 montre que la participation aux marchés obligataires de long terme (domestiques et internationaux) encourage les gouvernements des pays en développement à accroître leurs recettes fiscales intérieures. Il révèle également que l'effet favorable dépend du niveau des recettes de seigneuriage, d’endettement, du régime de change, du niveau de développement économique, du degré d’ouverture financière, et du développement financier. Le chapitre 6 montre que la présence de marchés obligataires domestiques, de long terme et liquides réduit considérablement le degré de dollarisation financière dans les pays en développement. Cet effet est plus important dans les pays avec un régime monétaire de ciblage d’inflation ou de change flottant, et à règles budgétaires. Enfin, il constate que la présence de marchés obligataires domestiques réduit la dollarisation financière à travers la baisse du niveau et de la variabilité de l'inflation, de la variabilité du taux de change nominal, et des revenus de seigneuriage. / This thesis focuses on some critical issues of the access to international financial markets in developing and emerging market economies. The first part provides a general overview of the macroeconomic consequences of one of the most market-friendly monetary policy regime—inflation targeting—using a meta-regression analysis framework. The second part analyses government bond market risk and stability. The last part investigates the disciplining effects of government bond market participation—bond vigilantes. In Chapter 1, the results indicate that the literature of the macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting adoption is subject to publication bias. After purging the publication bias, the true effect of inflation targeting appears to be statistically and economically meaningful both on the level of inflation and the volatility of economic growth, but not statistically significant on inflation volatility or real GDP growth. Third, differences in the impact of inflation targeting found in primary studies can be explained by differences in studies characteristics including the sample characteristics, the empirical identification strategies, the choice of the control variables, inflation targeting implementation parameters, as well as the study period and some parameters related to the publication process. Chapter 2 shows that the adoption of inflation targeting regime reduces sovereign debt risk in emerging countries. However, this relative advantage of inflation targeting—compared to money or exchange rate targeting—varies systematically depending on the business cycle, the fiscal policy stance, the level of development, and the duration of countries’ experience with inflation targeting. Chapter 3 shows that remittances inflows significantly reduce bond spreads, whereas development aid does not. It also highlights that the effect of remittances on spreads arises in a regimes of lower developed financial system, higher degree of trade openness, lower fiscal space, and exclusively in non-remittances dependent regimes. Chapter 4 indicates that countries with credit default swaps contracts on their debts have a higher probability of experiencing a debt crisis, compared to countries without credit default swaps contracts. It also finds that the impact of credit default swaps initiation is sensitive to several structural characteristics including the level of economic development, the country creditworthiness at the timing of credit default swaps introduction, the public sector transparency, the central bank independence; and to the duration of countries’ experiences with credit default swaps transactions. Chapter 5 shows that bond markets participation encourages government in developing countries to increase their domestic tax revenue mobilization. Finally, it finds that bond markets participation improves the mobilization of internal taxes, compared to tax on international trade, and reduces their instability. Chapter 6 shows that the presence of domestic bond markets significantly reduces financial dollarization in domestic bond markets countries. This effect is larger for inflation targeting countries compared to non-inflation targeting countries, is apparent exclusively in a non-pegged exchange rate regime, and is larger when there is a fiscal rule that constrains the conduct of fiscal policy. Finally, it finds that the induced drop in inflation rate and its variability, nominal exchange rate variability, and seigniorage revenue are potential transmission mechanisms through which the presence of domestic bond markets reduces financial dollarization in domestic bond markets countries.