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Magister Administrationis - MAdmin / The object of this study is to examine and analyse the dynamics of central banks. The central bank in any country has a great impact on the economic and monetary issues within its jurisdiction. This research is based on a case study of the economic and monetary crisis in the Republic of Angola resulting from the prolonged phases of civil war. The study will focus in particular on the role of the Banco Nacional de Angola, the central bank of Angola. This bank has a very important role to play in the post-war phase, since it is the only institution capable of inspiring confidence in national and international markets. In this period the country has been closely observed by foreign investors who are believed by this researcher to be the only guarantee for an immediate development of the country. The study points out the main periods of economic crisis, emphasising their main causes and origins, and suggests ways of overcoming these problems on the path to economic recovery from the ravages of the war. Furthermore it examines the manner in which monetary policiesare monitored and implemented within the Angolan framework. Emphasis is given to the fact that the Angolan central bank was highly controlled by the state. This is due to the lack of financial resources at the state's disposal. It is believed by this researcher that the main problem of central banking in Angola is inefficiency in terms service delivery, which has had a significant impact on the quality of its functioning. This study gives some suggestions for possible tools for better performance of the central bank, so that Angola can move towards a better future. This researcher has used qualitative data from secondary sources, exploring and analysing existing information from resources such as journals, reports, legal documents, as well as banking and government sources. This researcher has also collected and analysed national and international laws and legislative policies regarding central banks in general, and the Banco Nacional de Angola in particular.

This thesis provides international evidence relating to the impact of financial liberalisation on banking sector performance. Compared to a large number of studies linking financial liberalisation to economic growth and financial fragility, there is relatively little research at the international level linking financial liberalisation to banking sector efficiency and productivity. The research contributes to the literature by making a systematic, cross-country empirical investigation using domestic and international measures of financial liberalisation and evaluates their impact on bank efficiency and productivity by applying a combination of frontier estimation methods, dynamic panel data regressions and Granger causality techniques. The evidence is based on the use of bank-level accounting data and country-level economic data for a sample of 1536 commercial banks covering 88 countries over the period 2000 to 2009. Apart from using the global frontier for estimation of bank efficiency, empirical analysis is conducted across various levels including the use of separate income-group frontiers to determine the robustness of the findings. Using stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) for the estimation of banks’ cost and profit efficiency, the evidence shows that financial liberalisation contributes positively to profit efficiency while the effect on cost efficiency is generally mixed, depending on the measures of financial liberalisation used. Additionally, the results show that while cost efficiency remains, on average, stable during the estimation period (2000-2009), average profit efficiency fluctuates in the pre-crises period (2000-06) but declines sharply during the post crises period (2007-09). Furthermore, accounting explicitly for the influence of risk in banking, the evidence suggests that financial liberalisation, lower cost efficiency and higher profit efficiency of banks all increase the potential for default risk, while the latter also reduces both cost and profit efficiency, providing support for the bad management hypothesis. Additionally, upon accounting explicitly for the role of market power or competition in banking, the evidence suggests that both financial liberalisation and greater market power contribute to higher default risk of banks. On the other hand, greater competition in banking contributes to higher cost but lower profit efficiency of banks under financial liberalisation. The cross-country empirical investigation is also extended to analyse the impact of financial liberalisation on banks’ technical efficiency and productivity growth, using a two-step approach of combining data envelopment analysis (DEA) with panel data regressions. The evidence here suggests that financial liberalisation is robustly and negatively associated with (pure) technical efficiency. Furthermore, the effect on the total factor productivity (TFP) growth (using two-step DEA-type Malmquist method) is positive, although not always statistically significant. The robustness analysis conducted across the different income groups (higher, upper-middle, lower-middle and lower) confirms that the impact on cost, profit and technical efficiency of banks is more pronounced in the more developed (higher and upper-middle) countries than in the less developed countries. In particular, the impact of financial liberalisation is largely insignificant in the lower income countries. This finding generally reflects the greater pace of capital account liberalisation in the higher and upper-middle income countries, where the impact on both cost and profit efficiency is positive. Throughout the analysis, the estimation takes into account country-specific differences in the regulatory, market structure, financial development and macro-economic conditions and the evidence shows that these influences are also mostly significant and robust under financial liberalisation. Hence, the thesis concludes by arguing that financial liberalisation exerts an independent effect on the cost, profit and technical efficiency of banks, while the risks associated with financial liberalisation should be mitigated with better regulatory and institutional structures.

This thesis examines the impact of financial liberalisation on the capital structure of non-financial firms listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The research hypotheses have been formulated and tested by using various econometric estimation procedures. The empirical assessment begins by resolving some methodological issues relating to the dating of financial liberalisation and the measurement of leverage. Next, a panel of 100 non-financial firms is constructed for the period 1989 to 2007. The pooled Ordinary Least Squares, fixed (within), and random effects (Generalised Least Squares) models are used to estimate the impact of various aspects of financial liberalisation on firm capital structure. Robustness checks are performed by using the instrumental variable technique and the Arellano and Bond (1991: 277) two-step Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) procedure. Irrespective of the procedure used, the lifting of international sanctions and stock market liberalisation is associated with a reduction in leverage for all sets of firms. Capital account liberalisation causes firms to access more debt, and there is mild support for domestic financial sector liberalisation. Stock market liberalisation provides avenues for firms to increase their debt maturity structure. The size of the stock market is positively associated with leverage, and banking sector development is negatively correlated to leverage. The effect of financial liberalisation is more pronounced for larger firms, suggesting that the process of financial liberalisation causes a wedge between small and large firms. Furthermore, regime dummies are interacted with firm specific determinants of capital structure. The notable facts arising out of the interactive dummy variable exercise reveal that the lifting of international sanctions and stock market liberalisation cause significant structural shifts in the profitability, growth and tax rate variables. This is evident for the book and market value of the debt to equity ratio. The results of the dynamic model of capital structure document evidence of transaction costs for both the pre and post liberalisation regime. However, it appears that transaction costs reduce dramatically in the post liberalisation regime. The associated coefficient of adjustment increases accordingly. This suggests that a developed financial system promotes competition amongst the issuers of capital, thereby lowering borrowing and transaction costs. The empirical significance of firm specific determinants in a closed economy appears to be weaker than that of the post liberalised regime. Furthermore, firm size speeds up the adjustment to the target level of leverage for firms operating in both the pre and post liberalisation regimes. Finally, the results confirm most of the theoretical predictions of capital structure theories. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Financial Management / unrestricted

Magister Economicae - MEcon / This paper explores the feasibility and desirability of the South African Government imposing a policy of prescribed asset requirements on contractual savings. This would serve as a short-term measure to secure finance for investment in high priority development projects. Such a policy would encourage contractual savings institutions to become active participants in the process of development by requiring them to diversify their assets to include claims on either the government or other identified institutions engaged in the above projects. The first section of this mini-thesis discusses some features of the South African economy focussing broadly on recent political changes and economic challenges facing the country. The second section of the paper reviews current literature on issues related to the thesis, exploring topics in public finance and financial liberalisation. The third section analyses the nature of tax concessions on contractual savings, the effects of tax distortions on the savings behaviour of individuals and problems that have arisen because of tax concessions. The fourth section uses a microeconomic approach to illustrate the bias that individuals have toward contractual savings. The fifth section develops analytical models, which illustrates how prescribed asset requirements could constitute a second best solution. Section six explores possible solutions based on the modelling exercises. Finally, section seven highlights some of the main conclusions reached.

Cette thèse de doctorat consiste en trois chapitres étudiant les liens transnationaux dans différents groupes d’économies industrialisées. Le premier chapitre montre que depuis le milieu des années 1980 et 1990, la part de la variance du cycle de l’investissement des entreprises due aux facteurs communs internationaux a augmenté aux États-Unis ainsi que dans les principaux pays Européens. Le second chapitre estime l’impact de la libéralisation et de l’internationalisation des secteurs bancaires et financiers sur les variations communes de la croissance du PIB réel. Depuis la fin des années 1970, un facteur commun international a contribué à la majorité de la croissance économique dans les pays de l’UE, les États-Unis, le Canada et le Japon. Parmi plusieurs indicateurs financiers, bancaires et monétaires, les prix des actions suivi des investissements de portefeuille ont été de loin les principaux déterminants de ce facteur. La suppression des contrôles sur le crédit domestique apparaît comme la seule mesure de libéralisation financière ayant eu un effet substantiel et négatif sur la croissance commune avant 1995. Le troisième chapitre étudie les sources de covariations du PIB réel entre les pays fondateurs de la zone euro. Tout au long de l’UEM, la synchronisation des cycles réels a été robustement reliée aux disparités en matière de politique budgétaire et de gains de productivité totale des facteurs. La synchronisation des cycles était étroitement associée à la similarité de la croissance des coûts salariaux unitaires avant 2007, mais non après 2007 lorsque les différentiels entre les taux d’intérêt à long terme sont devenus une cause majeure de divergence cyclique. / This doctoral thesis consists in three chapters investigating cross-country linkages in different samples of industrialized economies. The first chapter shows that the share of the investment cycle's variance due to common international factors has increased in the United States as well in large European countries. The second chapter estimates the impact of the liberalization and internationalization of the financial and banking sectors on real GDP growth comovements. Since the late 1970s, a common international factor has contribued to most economic growth in th EU countries, the United States, Canada and Japan. Among several financial, bank and monetary indicators, equity prices, followed by portofolio investment have been by far the main drivers of this factor. The removal of controls on domestic credit emerges as the only financial liberalization policy measure with a large and negative effect on common growth before 1995. The third chapter investigates the sources of real GDP's comovements between the founding member states of the euro area. Throughout EMU, real cyclical synchronization was robustly linked to disparities in term of fiscal policy and of total factor productivity gains. Cyclical synchronization was closely related to similarities in unit labour cost growth before 2007, but not after 2007 when long-term interest rate differentials became a major cause of cyclical divergence.

This thesis investigates the impact of financial liberalisation policies on finance-growth relationship and financial crises. Analysis of recent trends and economic performance of financially developed and stable economies raises at least two very important questions that seem to have strong analytical connections. The first question is associated with the link between financial development and economic growth and the second question focuses the possible association between the policies of financial liberalisation and financial vulnerability. In this thesis we aim to shed light on some of the aspects that have gained so much attention from academics and policy makers during the last two decades. First we address whether excessive liberalisation has caused financial development to lose its effectiveness in generating economic growth. We employ a dynamic panel data analysis for 88 countries over the period of 1973 to 2005. Our index for the financial sector liberalisation covers seven aspects: credit controls and reserve requirements, interest rate controls, entry barriers, state ownership, policies on securities markets, banking regulations and restrictions on capital market. We use a comprehensive financial development indicator constructed through principal component analysis of five different indicators: bank private credit to GDP ratio, liquid liability to GDP ratio, deposit money bank assets to total bank assets ratio, deposit money bank assets to GDP ratio, and bank credit to bank deposit ratio. The results indicate that the positive effect of financial development on long-run growth continues to decline as the financial sector becomes more liberalised. Our results are robust to changes in the financial development indicators and the dis-aggregation of the financial liberalisation index. Second, we examine the possibility for an optimal sequence of financial sector reforms that may reduce an economy’s vulnerability to financial crises. We construct a distance measure from the countries that followed a more gradual approach and liberalised their capital account at a later stage. Our analysis shows that the experience of the countries that delayed or followed a very gradual approach for the liberalisation of their capital accounts have high level of implications to those countries that allowed for shock approach or liberalised their capital account before bringing reforms in other sectors.

The Asian financial crisis in 1997 98 left a severe impact on Malaysia s economy and banking system. This has forced the Malaysian government to undertake financial restructuring initiatives to restore market and public confidence, and to meet the ongoing challenges associated with market structure, financial innovation and globalisation. Therefore, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) introduced a ten-year Financial Sector Master Plan (FSMP) to strengthen domestic banks and the regulatory structure, and to promote the banks efficiency by stimulating a competitive banking industry through financial liberalisation. The crisis for banks in Malaysia and the region has been extensively studied in the past (Sufian, 2010). However, empirical studies of the post-crisis period, and the implementation of the FSMP, remain limited. Hence, a data set of all banks in Malaysia, which covers the period 2000 2011, was employed to examine the effect of the FSMP s initiatives on Malaysian banks efficiency between 2000 and 2011. To measure this efficiency, this study employs both parametric and nonparametric models: namely, stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) and data envelopment analysis (DEA). Economic functions such as, cost-, standard profit- and alternative profit-efficiency were used in a 1-stage SFA model, which includes control variables (e.g. capital adequacy, asset quality and liquidity) and environmental variables (e.g. ownership, size, specialisation, deregulation periods and market structure) in the model specifications. In addition, this study employs SFA as the main measurement method, while the DEA model was used to cross-check consistency (Resti, 1997; Bauer et al., 1998). Both SFA and DEA demonstrated that, in most cases, the consistency was moderate. The level of cost efficiency of Malaysian banks worsened over the years 2000 2011, with average cost efficiency during this period was at 76.5%. Despite the various liberalisation measures introduced to the banking industry particularly during the three phases of the FSMP; 2000 2003; 2004 2007; 2008 2011 cost efficiency trended downward, due to the effects of consolidation by domestic banks, deregulation of interest rates, the introduction of foreign Islamic banks, and the global credit crisis. Banks in Malaysia were forced to adjust their inputs and outputs to the rapid changes in the banking industry, which might have made a negative impact on cost efficiency. On the other hand, the banks demonstrated a steadily increasing profit efficiency trend, which fluctuated with the introduction of interest rate liberalisation (early second phase of the FSMP (i.e. 2004)) and during the global credit crisis (early third phase of the FSMP (i.e. 2008)). The average profit efficiency for 2000 2011 was 93.3%. The profit efficiency exhibited an increasing trend in the first (2000-2003) and second (2004-2007) phases of the FSMP, suggesting that the effect of consolidation by domestic banks had resulted in higher market concentration and greater market power among the remaining banks. However, the profit efficiency average scores fell in 2004, 2008 and 2011. This is attributed to the deregulation of interest rates, the deleveraging of the inflow of foreign funds, and the rapid increase in policy interest rates. At a more granular level, domestic banks were found to be more cost efficient, but marginally less profit efficient, when compared to foreign banks. In terms of bank specialisation, conventional banks were more cost- and profit-efficient than Islamic banks. With regard to economies of scale, the majority of Malaysian banks revealed scale economies, illustrated by a U-shape, with medium-sized banks being more scale efficient than small and large banks. These results suggest that, to enhance Malaysian banks efficiency, the government must maintain competitive pressure on the large domestic banks that were consolidated during the first phase of the FSMP (2000-2003). Policymakers may want to further open up banking markets, improve risk management and governance, encourage financial innovation, and support expansion of smaller banks. The implementation of deregulation initiatives during periods of uncertainty (e.g. the global credit crisis) have also resulted in decreasing trend of cost and profit efficiency. Hence, monitoring initiatives, using tools such as frontier measurement is important for regulator s macro- and micro-prudential surveillance.

This doctoral thesis consists in three chapters investigating cross-country linkages in different samples of industrialized economies. The first chapter shows that the share of the investment cycle's variance due to common international factors has increased in the United States as well in large European countries. The second chapter estimates the impact of the liberalization and internationalization of the financial and banking sectors on real GDP growth comovements. Since the late 1970s, a common international factor has contribued to most economic growth in th EU countries, the United States, Canada and Japan. Among several financial, bank and monetary indicators, equity prices, followed by portofolio investment have been by far the main drivers of this factor. The removal of controls on domestic credit emerges as the only financial liberalization policy measure with a large and negative effect on common growth before 1995. The third chapter investigates the sources of real GDP's comovements between the founding member states of the euro area. Throughout EMU, real cyclical synchronization was robustly linked to disparities in term of fiscal policy and of total factor productivity gains. Cyclical synchronization was closely related to similarities in unit labour cost growth before 2007, but not after 2007 when long-term interest rate differentials became a major cause of cyclical divergence.

L'étude vise principalement à analyser l'origine de la crise financière globale de 2007 (2007 GFC) au États-Unis et dans les autres économies avancées (AE), ses impacts macroéconomiques sur les économies (de marché) émergentes (EME) ainsi qu'un examen critique de leurs réponses en termes de politique économique. L'étude met en évidence les défis en matière de régulation post crise et discute des implications des réformes qui ont été récemment introduites dans les EME. A cette fin, la thèse se décline en quatre chapitres. Le premier chapitre établit le contexte théorique de la thèse et présente un exposé critique des approches orthodoxe (dominante/néolibérale) et hétérodoxe concernant la fragilité financière et la crise. Après avoir examiné l'approche orthodoxe, on met en évidence le mérite et la pertinence du cadre d'analyse de Minsky connu en tant que « Hypothèses d'instabilité financières » (FIH), afin de comprendre la question de la fragilité dans les économies de marché. Dans le deuxième chapitre, la thèse propose un compte rendu exhaustif des explications et des conséquences de la crise de 2007 en mettant l'accent sur ses prémisses qui se trouvent sur le marché immobilier américain. On met également en évidence les principaux dysfonctionnements du marché financier et du système de régulation qui se trouvent à l'origine de la crise. Le troisième chapitre présente une analyse approfondie du processus de transmission de la crise de 2007 aux EME. Par la suite, on met en évidence les réactions en matière de politique économique (monétaire) de certaines EME sous forme d'étude comparative. Le quatrième chapitre analyse les diverses réformes de régulation financière introduites après la crise. L'examen indique que ces réformes (la loi Dodd Franck Act de 2011 et les nouveaux standards Bâle III) sont d'inspiration néolibérale et qu'elles ne peuvent pas résoudre le problème de fragilité et de crise financière. Sur la base de notre analyse développée au travers de ces quatre chapitres on met en évidence deux principaux résultats. Premièrement, les marchés financiers ne devraient pas être laissés aux vicissitudes des marchés (libres). Il faudrait mettre en place un cadre de régulation pertinent assorti des principes macroprudentiels qui puissent remplacer l'approche dominante de marchés libres efficients. Les orientations de politique et d'analyse de « gouvernement puissant » et de « banque centrale puissante », assumées par l'économiste hétérodoxe Hyman Minsky, semblent appropriées pour comprendre et contenir la fragilité des économies de marché. Ensuite, il est recommandable pour les EME d'adopter des politiques cohérentes avec leurs propres caractéristiques macroéconomiques et avec leur niveau de développement financier et non de s'attacher à une croyance aveugle dans la libéralisation du marché ou dans le paradigme néolibéral. / This study mainly aims to investigate the origin of the global financial crisis of 2007 (2007 GFC) in United States and in other advanced economies(AEs),its macroeconomic impact on the Emerging Market Economies(EMEs) and the critical analysis of their policy response. Study highlights the regulatory challenges of the post-crisis period and discusses the implications of newly introduced regulatory reforms for the EMEs.In this aim the thesis is delineated into four chapters. First chapter of the thesis sets the theoretical context of the dissertation and presents a critical review of orthodox (mainstream/neoliberal) and the heterodox approaches on financial fragility and crisis. After giving a critique of the orthodox approach, merits and relevance of Minsky's framework known as “Financial Instability Hypothesis”(FIH) are emphasized to understand the issue of fragility in capitalist economies. Second chapter of the thesis provides a compelling compendium of various explanations and consequences of the 2007 GFC focusing on its origination in the US housing market. Main dysfunctions of the financial markets and the regulatory system that led to the eruption of financial crisis are highlighted. Third chapter presents an in-depth analysis of the contagion of the 2007 GFC to EMEs. A comparative case studies analysis highlights the policy response of selected EMEs. Fourth chapter of the thesis investigates the various financial regulatory reforms introduced in the aftermath of the 2007 GFC. Analysis in this chapter indicates that introduced reforms (The Dodd- Franck Act of 2011 and the new Basel III Banking Standards) are rooted in neoliberal philosophy so would be unable to solve the issues of fragility and financial crisis. On the basis of our analysis in these four chapters, two major conclusions are emphasized. Firstly, the financial markets should not be left to the vicissitudes of free markets, and a relevant regulatory framework having macroprudential orientations must be implemented to replace the dominant free-market-based approach. Analytical and policy insights (“big government” and “big central bank”) endorsed by heterodox economist Hyman Minsky seem appropriate to understand and constrain the fragility of capitalist market economies. Secondly, it is advisable for EMEs to adopt policies keeping in view their own macroeconomic characteristics and the level of financial development and not by the blind faith in market liberalisation or the neoliberal policy paradigm.