The objective of the study is to establish how original financial integration could be attained in southern Africa in order to attract more foreign investment and develop a financially robust and stable region in the southern part of Africa; also to deal with the challenges, risks and remedies of prospective future financial crises. Financial markets are rapidly integrating into a single global market. Developing countries of various regions are drawn into the process with little choice, and without having sound financial infrastructure and policies in place. It is against this background that countries and regions of global integration choose policies that would benefit their regional economy and avert potential economic shock. The challenges posed to countries and regions by the progressive global integration of financial markets are becoming more urgent by the day. These challenges need to be addressed more effectively, either nationally or regionally, as demonstrated by the 1998 financial turmoil in Asia. Private capital flows are becoming intra regionally concentrated, particularly in the USA, Europe, Asia and Latin America. Be that as it may, failure in one market is likely to have immediate and large regional repercussions. Globalisation also marginalises Africa and other Least Developed Countries (LDC), leaving them more impoverished and with greater disparities in terms of income, GDP and FDI. Regional financial integration has to be efficient and sound in order to prevent or contain currency and capital market crises in the southern African region. This study identifies macro economic challenges and risks associated with financial integration. Recommendations are made about methodologies of addressing these issues in order to realise the benefits of regional financial integration in southern Africa, which could be a building block in realising the dream of an African Monetary Union. The study contributes greatly to the debate around the most appropriate criteria that are to be met by the SADC countries, before monetary integration can become a reality. A comparison of the benchmark macro economic convergence criteria of the EU and of the African Monetary Union is done and the performance of SADC countries is assessed in terms of both sets of benchmarks. Southern African states are found to not even be at a comparable level with regard to the EU targets of 1997. The thesis is also critical to the impact of the political instability in the SADC region on prospective monetary integration. Most importantly, SADC would be at a permanent disadvantage and face a long-run depreciation of its common currency, should it continue to integrate financially at macro economic benchmark levels inferior to those of its major trading partner, the EU. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2009. / Economics / unrestricted

Financial liberalisation, through increasing investment as well as the average productivity of capital, should stimulate economic growth, or so the theory goes. Bank lending unfortunately suffers adverse selection and moral hazard effects, to which the establishment and expansion of stock markets has been offered as a remedy. However, research from developing country stock markets have shown that in many cases these markets did not complement the effects of credit market liberalisation but in rather important aspects subverted them. Countries that implemented credit market liberalisation and raised real interest rates only increased the price of debt capital rather than all capital. This caused a share price boom in many of them. When the price of equity capital fell it seriously undermined and indeed allowed large private corporations to skip altogether the main channel of high interest rates through which the theoretical McKinnon-Shaw effects were to operate. This study asks the research question of what effect the expansion of the South African stock exchange has had for its economic development. It makes use of a general empirical model to explain the relationship between financial development and real output. The model comprises indicators for growth, banking system development, stock market volatility; and, stock market development through a conglomerate index that accounts for market size, liquidity and integration with world capital markets. Quarterly data from 1989 to 2001 is analysed based on the null hypothesis that, as far as financial architecture is concerned, the development of the JSE Securities Exchange has stimulated the country's economic growth. This study found a negative and statistically significant relation between stock market development and economic growth. It suggests that while the JSE Securities Exchange is a relatively large stock market it is the presence of thin trading that prevents the proposed benefits of market development from accruing to the economy. Thus the hypothesis is rejected. However, since the only stable cointegrating vector is between growth and banking sector development, it recommends that by expanding their universal banking functions, the present banking structure, though oligopolistic, may be better suited to act as a catalyst for growth. / Business Management / D. Comm.

The thesis examines the comprehensive relationship between all aspects of financial liberalisation and economic growth in three countries from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Employing ARDL bounds test approach and real GDP per capita as growth indicator; the thesis finds support in favour of the McKinnon-Shaw hypothesis but also finds that the increases in the subsequent savings and investments have not been transmitted into economic growth in two of the studied countries. Moreover, the thesis also finds that stock market developments have negligible or negative impact on economic growth in two of the selected countries. The thesis concludes that in most cases, it is not financial liberalisation polices that affect economic growth in the selected ECOWAS countries, but rather increase in the productivity of labour, increase in the credit to the private sector, increase in foreign direct investments, increase in the capital stock and increase in government expenditure contrary to expectations. Interestingly, the thesis also finds that export has only negative effect on economic growth in all the selected ECOWAS countries. The thesis therefore, recommends that long-term export diversification programmes be implemented in the ECOWAS regions whilst further investigation is carried on the issue. / Economic Sciences / D. Litt et Phil. (Economics)

Financial liberalisation, through increasing investment as well as the average productivity of capital, should stimulate economic growth, or so the theory goes. Bank lending unfortunately suffers adverse selection and moral hazard effects, to which the establishment and expansion of stock markets has been offered as a remedy. However, research from developing country stock markets have shown that in many cases these markets did not complement the effects of credit market liberalisation but in rather important aspects subverted them. Countries that implemented credit market liberalisation and raised real interest rates only increased the price of debt capital rather than all capital. This caused a share price boom in many of them. When the price of equity capital fell it seriously undermined and indeed allowed large private corporations to skip altogether the main channel of high interest rates through which the theoretical McKinnon-Shaw effects were to operate. This study asks the research question of what effect the expansion of the South African stock exchange has had for its economic development. It makes use of a general empirical model to explain the relationship between financial development and real output. The model comprises indicators for growth, banking system development, stock market volatility; and, stock market development through a conglomerate index that accounts for market size, liquidity and integration with world capital markets. Quarterly data from 1989 to 2001 is analysed based on the null hypothesis that, as far as financial architecture is concerned, the development of the JSE Securities Exchange has stimulated the country's economic growth. This study found a negative and statistically significant relation between stock market development and economic growth. It suggests that while the JSE Securities Exchange is a relatively large stock market it is the presence of thin trading that prevents the proposed benefits of market development from accruing to the economy. Thus the hypothesis is rejected. However, since the only stable cointegrating vector is between growth and banking sector development, it recommends that by expanding their universal banking functions, the present banking structure, though oligopolistic, may be better suited to act as a catalyst for growth. / Business Management / D. Comm.

The thesis examines the comprehensive relationship between all aspects of financial liberalisation and economic growth in three countries from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Employing ARDL bounds test approach and real GDP per capita as growth indicator; the thesis finds support in favour of the McKinnon-Shaw hypothesis but also finds that the increases in the subsequent savings and investments have not been transmitted into economic growth in two of the studied countries. Moreover, the thesis also finds that stock market developments have negligible or negative impact on economic growth in two of the selected countries. The thesis concludes that in most cases, it is not financial liberalisation polices that affect economic growth in the selected ECOWAS countries, but rather increase in the productivity of labour, increase in the credit to the private sector, increase in foreign direct investments, increase in the capital stock and increase in government expenditure contrary to expectations. Interestingly, the thesis also finds that export has only negative effect on economic growth in all the selected ECOWAS countries. The thesis therefore, recommends that long-term export diversification programmes be implemented in the ECOWAS regions whilst further investigation is carried on the issue. / Economics / D. Litt et Phil. (Economics)

The aim of this research is to show the effects of financial liberalisation on emerging market economies, how these economies removed restrictions on financial institutions so that they can be globally integrated, and to show the flow of international finance in and out of a country. This research also illustrates how the financial system in these economies moved from being government-led to being market-led. The main finding of this research is that many countries failed to reap the benefits of liberalisation because of weaknesses in the regulatory structure, undercapitalised banks, volatile markets and contagion effects. The research concludes that the long-term gains of liberalisation certainly supersede short-term instability of liberalisation. Thus, for financial liberalisation to have predominantly positive effects, attention should be drawn to the importance of a more prudent regulatory and supervisory environment. Furthermore, financial liberalisation must be accompanied by a sound institutional infrastructure, proper conduct of monetary and fiscal policies, a reduction in corruption, and an increase in transparency. In addition, liberalisation should be a gradual process whereby the right measures are taken in the right sequence. / Economics / M. Comm. (Economics)

The aim of this research is to show the effects of financial liberalisation on emerging market economies, how these economies removed restrictions on financial institutions so that they can be globally integrated, and to show the flow of international finance in and out of a country. This research also illustrates how the financial system in these economies moved from being government-led to being market-led. The main finding of this research is that many countries failed to reap the benefits of liberalisation because of weaknesses in the regulatory structure, undercapitalised banks, volatile markets and contagion effects. The research concludes that the long-term gains of liberalisation certainly supersede short-term instability of liberalisation. Thus, for financial liberalisation to have predominantly positive effects, attention should be drawn to the importance of a more prudent regulatory and supervisory environment. Furthermore, financial liberalisation must be accompanied by a sound institutional infrastructure, proper conduct of monetary and fiscal policies, a reduction in corruption, and an increase in transparency. In addition, liberalisation should be a gradual process whereby the right measures are taken in the right sequence. / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)