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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Columbia University, 2005. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 113-119).

The identification of financial stress, and an understanding of financial contagion on a global scale, is of critical importance to a South African economy that is becoming increasingly integrated into the global economy. The last decade has been characterised by periods of high economic growth, but also periods of significant financial instability culminating in global economic crises. This study examines the extent to which the South African financial system is exposed to distress abroad by identifying and measuring the co-movement of financial stress originating from within and outside South Africa. The study can be separated into two sections: the identification of financial stress and the measurement of financial contagion. Using monthly data for the period 2000 to 2012, three indices were constructed for the emerging markets, advanced economies and South Africa using varianceequal weighting. The indices were tested for contagion using the Johansen and Jesulius (1990) multivariate cointegration approach supplemented with basic OLS architecture and Impulse Response analysis. The results indicate the three constructed indices were highly accurate at identifying the intensity and timing of financial stress over the three regions respectively. It was found that the South African financial sector is highly susceptible to financial stress originating from advanced economies. The results obtained for financial stress emanating from emerging markets were not as conclusive and found to be insignificant. Overall, it is clear that the methods employed to identify financial stress are highly accurate and that South Africa is highly susceptible to financial stress originating from abroad. It is clear that advanced economies have a greater ability to affect financial stress in South Africa via contagion. It must be noted that this does not conclude that South Africa is not affected by emerging market crises, but that these crises tend to affect South Africa through advanced economy channels as defined within this thesis.

The thesis examines the comprehensive relationship between all aspects of financial liberalisation and economic growth in three countries from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Employing ARDL bounds test approach and real GDP per capita as growth indicator; the thesis finds support in favour of the McKinnon-Shaw hypothesis but also finds that the increases in the subsequent savings and investments have not been transmitted into economic growth in two of the studied countries. Moreover, the thesis also finds that stock market developments have negligible or negative impact on economic growth in two of the selected countries. The thesis concludes that in most cases, it is not financial liberalisation polices that affect economic growth in the selected ECOWAS countries, but rather increase in the productivity of labour, increase in the credit to the private sector, increase in foreign direct investments, increase in the capital stock and increase in government expenditure contrary to expectations. Interestingly, the thesis also finds that export has only negative effect on economic growth in all the selected ECOWAS countries. The thesis therefore, recommends that long-term export diversification programmes be implemented in the ECOWAS regions whilst further investigation is carried on the issue. / Economic Sciences / D. Litt et Phil. (Economics)

The thesis examines the comprehensive relationship between all aspects of financial liberalisation and economic growth in three countries from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Employing ARDL bounds test approach and real GDP per capita as growth indicator; the thesis finds support in favour of the McKinnon-Shaw hypothesis but also finds that the increases in the subsequent savings and investments have not been transmitted into economic growth in two of the studied countries. Moreover, the thesis also finds that stock market developments have negligible or negative impact on economic growth in two of the selected countries. The thesis concludes that in most cases, it is not financial liberalisation polices that affect economic growth in the selected ECOWAS countries, but rather increase in the productivity of labour, increase in the credit to the private sector, increase in foreign direct investments, increase in the capital stock and increase in government expenditure contrary to expectations. Interestingly, the thesis also finds that export has only negative effect on economic growth in all the selected ECOWAS countries. The thesis therefore, recommends that long-term export diversification programmes be implemented in the ECOWAS regions whilst further investigation is carried on the issue. / Economics / D. Litt et Phil. (Economics)

The aim of this research is to show the effects of financial liberalisation on emerging market economies, how these economies removed restrictions on financial institutions so that they can be globally integrated, and to show the flow of international finance in and out of a country. This research also illustrates how the financial system in these economies moved from being government-led to being market-led. The main finding of this research is that many countries failed to reap the benefits of liberalisation because of weaknesses in the regulatory structure, undercapitalised banks, volatile markets and contagion effects. The research concludes that the long-term gains of liberalisation certainly supersede short-term instability of liberalisation. Thus, for financial liberalisation to have predominantly positive effects, attention should be drawn to the importance of a more prudent regulatory and supervisory environment. Furthermore, financial liberalisation must be accompanied by a sound institutional infrastructure, proper conduct of monetary and fiscal policies, a reduction in corruption, and an increase in transparency. In addition, liberalisation should be a gradual process whereby the right measures are taken in the right sequence. / Economics / M. Comm. (Economics)

The aim of this research is to show the effects of financial liberalisation on emerging market economies, how these economies removed restrictions on financial institutions so that they can be globally integrated, and to show the flow of international finance in and out of a country. This research also illustrates how the financial system in these economies moved from being government-led to being market-led. The main finding of this research is that many countries failed to reap the benefits of liberalisation because of weaknesses in the regulatory structure, undercapitalised banks, volatile markets and contagion effects. The research concludes that the long-term gains of liberalisation certainly supersede short-term instability of liberalisation. Thus, for financial liberalisation to have predominantly positive effects, attention should be drawn to the importance of a more prudent regulatory and supervisory environment. Furthermore, financial liberalisation must be accompanied by a sound institutional infrastructure, proper conduct of monetary and fiscal policies, a reduction in corruption, and an increase in transparency. In addition, liberalisation should be a gradual process whereby the right measures are taken in the right sequence. / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)