This thesis measures the extent to which the interest rate falls after an increase in the money supply. Even though the South African Reserve Bank has as a commitment, a goal for the inflation rate to vary between a prescribed band, it still needs to be able to use active monetary policy if economic conditions require intervention. To this end it is of interest to measure the number of quarters for which interest rates remain low after the liquidity of the macro-economy improves. In the monetary literature (for example Melvin (1983)) there are methods that have been used to measure the duration of the decline in the interest rate. These models have not to our knowledge been tested using South African data. We find evidence that the monetary authorities can induce falling interest rates for approximately one quarter using appropriate monetary policy. This result was subjected to testing under alternative assumptions concerning the structure of the error term and found to be robust. This thesis argues for the first time, that there may not be a set pattern to the time path of the interest rate, and inflationary expectations may cause the interest rate to rise, however, this rise is not confined to one uniform adjustment over time, but may occur in separate discrete adjustments. This theoretical innovation and the possibility of an identification problem suggested we estimate another more general model of interest rate determination The second model we estimate is that of Mehra (1985). After a careful analysis of the data to ensure that there are no major statistical problems with the South African data, we find that inflationary expectations result in a higher interest rate especially in times of higher expected inflation. Thus, one benefit of the Reserve Bank's current policy that aims for a band between which the rate of inflation (appropriately defined) must fall, is an improved operation of the transmission mechanism. Therefore, if intervention is required, say, if the economy suffers a severe supply shock, then monetary policy can be effective. / Thesis (M.Com.)-University of Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2001.

The South African fiscal legislators have found it necessary to introduce anti-avoidance legislation which governs controlled foreign companies in order to counteract schemes devised by taxpayers where companies are established outside South Africa for the purpose of diverting income from the South African fiscal net. Whilst the enforcement of such legislation does have merit in that the intention behind the introduction of such domestic legislation is to prevent the erosion of the South African tax base, it is submitted that this does pose a problem from an international perspective. The objective of this treatise is to conduct a critical analysis of how compatible the South African fiscal legislation which governs controlled foreign companies is with the provisions of the double taxation agreement as prescribed in terms of the OECD Model Tax Convention (which was published in July 2010). In addition, the aim of this study is to deduce whether the purpose of the double taxation agreement is not only the avoidance of juridical double taxation but also that it addresses the avoidance of economic double taxation. This will assist in determining whether domestic controlled foreign company legislation (as embodied in section 9D of the Income Tax Act 58 of 1962) conflicts with the purpose of the double taxation agreement. By conducting an extensive research study and by depicting a certain scenario which addresses the issue at hand, the following is concluded: The tax treatment of the business profits generated by a controlled foreign company resident in a State outside South Africa and which have been generated from active business operating activities, is held to be in agreement with the provisions of the double taxation agreement. By contrast, the tax treatment of the controlled foreign company’s passive income in the form of interest income, is found not to correlate with the aforesaid agreement. As will be demonstrated in the chapters that follow, the controlled foreign company’s interest income is subjected to economic double taxation in terms of the scenario depicted in this treatise. This means that such income is taxed twice in the hands of two different taxpayers in two different States. As a result of this it is submitted that the following problem arises: Because section 9D of the Income Tax Act causes economic double taxation to occur (as illustrated in the previous paragraphs) and owing to the fact that the purpose of the double taxation agreement is the avoidance of economic double taxation, it can be shown that the section 9D domestic legislation conflicts with the terms of the double taxation agreement. This conflict is considered to be an area of concern because a contravention of the purpose of the double taxation agreement is regarded as a breach of the Contracting States’ international obligations in terms of the aforesaid agreement. It is further submitted that paragraph 23 of the OECD Commentary on article 1 and paragraph 14 of the OECD Commentary on article 7 are incorrect when they express the sentiment that domestic controlled foreign company legislation does not conflict with the provisions of the double taxation agreement. It is proposed that this be corrected to state the contrary.

D.Comm. / This thesis endeavoured to assess whether the government can simultaneously achieve the objectives of sustained economic growth, income redistribution and fiscal discipline, as stated in the Growth, Employment and Redistribution (GEAR) policy. The simultaneous realisation of these objectives of the GEAR policy brings about controversies between the South African government and other interest groups, such as the trade unions and some academics. Empirical analysis such as econometrics and computerised general equilibrium (hereafter referred to as CGE) techniques were used in an attempt to solve the research question. The Kalman filter technique was applied to model total factor productivity and to establish the link between social services expenditure and economic growth in South Africa. The structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) technique was applied to assess the dynamics of fiscal shocks on output growth and determine the type of taxes that are distortionary in financing the increase in social services expenditure. The study’s main contribution is the application of the CGE technique to assess whether the above three objectives can be reached simultaneously. A new CGE model was built, based on the standard CGE model by Thurlow and Van Seventer (2002). In the new CGE model, some taxes were changed to endogenous variables instead of exogenous variables or parameters as in the standard model. The model introduced a number of government macro closure rules to clear the government balance. The research lead to the following conclusion: When constraints on employment are removed across all the labour categories in South Africa, and the government uses compositional shift of its expenditure to finance the continual increase in social services expenditure, the three objectives, namely fair redistribution of iv income, fiscal discipline and sustained economic growth, will be reached simultaneously. It is recommended that the government fix conditions in the labour market to remove impediments to employment in South Africa (such as lack of appropriate skills for specific activities), as this will enable the government to achieve most of its objectives.

M.Com. (Economics) / The primary purpose of this study is a theoretical analysis of the allocation of the primary functions of the authority, with specific reference to the distribution function in a system of fiscal federalism in South Africa. An effort is made to find an answer to the question: On what level of government should the various functions of authorities and, in particular, the distribution function, be executed? South Africa is on the threshold of a new democratic system with an interim constitutional dispensation and for this reason, existing views concerning the distribution function in South Africa were also briefly investigated. The method of research comprised a literature study. In chapter two the rationale for government functions I in other words, the allocation, distribution and stabilisation functions, are theoretically analysed. The analysis also defines the nature of collective goods and services. This definition is essential because it has to serve as a point of departure in the discussion of the spatial dimension of government functions. Since the distribution function represents the central theme of the study, this function is discussed in more detail than other functions. It appears that there are different approaches to the distribution function and that it can be implemented in numerous ways. The approaches can be classified into two theories: Firstly, there is the theory which advocates equity in the execution of the distribution function. This view requires the centralisation of authority in a system of fiscal federalism. The second theory is in favour of the promotion of decentralisation of authority on the basis of economic efficiency. In chapter three the spatial aspects of government functions are concentrated upon more specifically. The spatial aspects of the allocation function indicate that economic efficiency is promoted by effective decentralisation so that autonomous sub-authorities can accept responsibility for the provision of collective goods and services with limited geographical advantage. According to this, the national government will only be responsible for services which have a national tenor, such as defence and foreign affairs. An analysis of the stabilisation function indicates that subnational authorities cannot apply stabilisation management in an effective manner. There is considerably less consensus about the allocation of the distribution function. Various reasons exist as to why the distribution function should be vested in the central authority. The possible mobility of individuals, the necessity for the establishment of minimum standards of service and the desirability of central control over fiscal resources are the primary motivation for the execution of the distribution function to be vested in the central authority.

This study examines the relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth in South Africa for the period 1994-2014. This study examines the relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth within the context of the endogenous growth theory. Three models are estimated. The variables included in the first model are; real GDP, aggregate government expenditure, total taxes and private investment. The second and third models disaggregate government expenditure into productive and non-productive and taxes into distortionary and non-distortionary. The Vector Autoregressive is used to estimate the relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth. The data is quarterly in frequency. The findings of the study suggest that government investment expenditure has negative impact on growth, while government consumption expenditure has positive impact on growth. Furthermore, the findings of the study are that direct taxes have negative impact on the economy while indirect taxes have positive impact on economic growth.

M.Comm. / The central question addressed by this study is how a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for South Africa can be use to measure the impact of fiscal policy on the well being of South Africa's society and therefore assist fiscal policy makers in the making of Fiscal Policy in South Africa. As a starting point, this study will define the concept of poverty and look at income distribution as a measure of welfare. The questions to be raised in this section are: What is the importance of income distribution? How does South Africa compare in an international perspective and how does the different sources of data in South Africa compare with one another? How can inequality be measured? What does a profile of South Africa's poor looks like and what is the burden of poverty that they have to deal with? The second section of this study describes South Africa's Fiscal Policy in order to understand its impact on societies well being. More specifically, it examines: The failures of recent fiscal policy and its lessons for the future; and The government's GEAR (Growth, Employment and Redistribution) policy. Section three investigates possible fiscal policy interventions for attacking poverty. The following questions are addressed: Which programmes can the government implement in order to address poverty? What is the priorities for action? The fourth and final section of the study looks at the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) as a method for measuring the impact of fiscal policy on the well being of a society. It is discussed from various perspectives in order to arrive at a thorough understanding of its scope and nature, including: o What is a Social Accounting Matrix and does it exists in South Africa? o How can a Social Accounting Matrix assist fiscal policy makers?

Budget control is a process of financial monitoring to ensure effective allocation, collection and efficient utilizing of public funds. It is a process that is aimed at ensuring the accomplishment of public policy objectives. Budget control is regulated by financial legislation as well as regulations and procedures which guide public financial administrators. Continuous monitoring is needed once appropriation is allowed by parliament or provincial legislatures to ensure effective service rendering as well as tax and user charges collection. This study investigates the reported ineffective budget control measures implemented by the provincial treasury in the Province of the Eastern Cape particularly in the Eastern Cape Department of Education (George, 2004). Ineffective budget control may be associated with the implementation of unstable fiscal policy by the provincial treasury that led to deficit spending in the Department of Education during the 2004/5 financial year. The purpose of this study is to show that the implementation of stable fiscal policy instruments by the provincial treasury would lead to effective budget control in provincial departments such as the Eastern Cape Department of Education. Governments in many instances encounter various challenges in controlling their expenditures on an annual basis as well as in the medium term. This is due to the notion that once the government exceeds the current year’s budget, it consumes the forthcoming budget. Borrowing is by nature an implicit consumption of future unplanned revenue. This makes the Medium Term Revenue Framework in the province immaterial as the provincial own revenue is insignificant. The relative uncontrollability of government expenditure stems from the notion that the provision of, for instance, primary education and social welfare is intertwined with legal entitlement within prescribed parameters. Allocative efficiency embodies recognition of legal entitlement that is reflected in the distribution imperatives if the provincial treasury is to be effective in the budget control function. The National Norms and Standards for School Funding of 2006 state explicitly that public spending in public schools is targeted at increasing the literacy levels of the poor. Intergovernmental fiscal relations play a pivotal role in modelling the fiscal policy of the province. This stems from the fact that expected national collected revenue is distributed as an equitable share to national, provincial and local spheres of government. The criteria for revenue sharing are based on economic disparities and demographics in each sphere of government. It is imperative to note in intergovernmental relations that there are functional areas of concurrent national and provincial competencies. The budget control function of the provincial treasury is implemented within the framework of various administrative processes which are aimed at ensuring effective transactional activities. The disbursement of funds and various other financial processes are subject to the delegation of powers as prescribed in the Public Finance Management Act, 1999 (Act 1 of 1999), as amended by Act 29 of 1999. The provincial governments’ fiscal policies are modelled to be consistent with the macro-economic objectives of the national government. It is for the purpose of macro-economic stability that only national government is eligible to borrow to finance a budget deficit. Provinces are legally prohibited from overspending their budgets. If the fiscal policies of the provinces materially and unreasonably prejudice the national economic policies, the relevant provincial treasury is responsible for taking appropriate steps to place the financial administration on a sound footing.

Thesis (MAdmin)--Stellenbosch University, 2000. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The study is devoted to the determination of an appropriate financial management and budgeting system to support a transforming South Africa. Given the challenges and opportunities presented by the new political dispensation, both locally and abroad, the evolution of financial management and budgeting systems is analysed. Specifically, elements of each budgetary system that stood the test of time to the present, are studied. International case studies of countries that have undergone (or are undergoing) the transformation process successfully, or otherwise, are fully discussed to serve as invaluable lessons and experience for South Africa on its quest for a smooth and swift transformation, to prevent it from ending up as just another unsuccessful transformation. This then serves as a broad foundation for an appropriate financial management and budgeting system which is proactive in the transformation process. South Africa will not reinvent the wheel. Unlike other countries that waited for transformation problems to fall upon them, the South African financial management and budgeting system manipulates the financial management policies. It achieves this by broadly defining the objectives to be achieved through prioritisation and reprioritisation, formulate clear strategies for shortterm, medium-term and long-term plans, goals, processes, functions and activities. It applies all the positive elements of input-orientated systems, activity/ performance measuring systems, objective/goal-orientated system, medium term expenditure framework and multi-year budgets studied and drawn from lessons and experience of other countries. South Africa's appropriate financial management and budgeting system is a broad crosswalk model vacillating between all systems from a broad definition of objectives, goals, processes and activities ending up with a strong financial management tool. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Dié studie word gewy aan die daarstelling van 'n Geskikte Finansiële Bestuur en Begrotingstelsel om 'n veranderende Suid-Afrika te ondersteun. Teen die agtergrond van die uitdagings daargestel deur die nuwe politieke bestel word die revolusie van finansiële bestuur- en begrotingstelsels plaaslik en in die buiteland ontleed en in perspektief geplaas. Meer spesifiek is die elemente van elke begrotingstelsel wat die toets van die tyd deurstaan het, bestudeer. Internasionale studies van lande wat die veranderingsproses suksesvol ondergaan het (of tans daarmee besig is), of andersins, word volledig bespreek om as 'n onskatbare les en ondervinding vir Suid-Afrika in sy soektog na 'n gladde en vinnige transformasie te dien en om te verhoed dat dit op net nog 'n onsuksesvolle transformasie uitloop. Dit dien dan as 'n breë grondslag vir 'n Geskikte Finansiële Bestuur- en Begrotingstelsel wat proaktief in die Suid-Afrikaanse transformasieproses is. Suid-Afrika sal nie die wiel kan heruitvind nie. Anders as in ander lande wat op transformasieprobleme gewag het om hulle te tref, kan die Suid- Afrikaanse Finansiële Bestuur- en Begrotingstelsels finansiële bestuursbeleid pro-aktief ondersteun. Dit word bewerkstellig deur 'n omvattende bepaling van die mikpunte wat bereik moet word deur priorisering en herpriorisering van planne, doelwitte, prosesse, funksies en aktiwiteite op die kort, medium en lang termyn. Dit is moontlik indien al die positiewe elemente van verskillende finansiële bestuur- en begrotingsteiseis, soos bestudeer in en geleer uit ander lande se ondervindings toegepas word. Suid-Afrika se Finansiële Bestuur- en Begrotingstelsel behels 'n breë omvattende model wat put uit al die stelsels wat 'n bepaling van doelstellings, mikpunte, prosesse en aktiwiteite bevat ten einde te eindig met 'n sterk Finansiële Bestuurswerktuig.

The economic crisis of 2007 has had debilitating effects on the global economy, affecting GDP growth, unemployment and trade to name a few. In response to these economic effects, numerous policy interventions were implemented. There are various existing time-series methods available to determine better estimates of GDP growth rates, one of which is Stein’s Paradox which uses observed averages to estimate unobservable quantities which are closer to the true unknown GDP growth rates or theta (θ) in order to determine better growth rates post the economic crisis. The resulting James-Stein estimator (z) is said to be better than the arithmetic average, and thus a closer approximation to the true GDP growth rates which are unobservable. This dissertation analyses the effects of the 2008 financial crisis on the global economy, with specific reference to South Africa and America, and their corresponding policy interventions to determine the growth trajectory after the crisis. The main objective is to determine if better estimates of GDP growth can be calculated using Stein’s Paradox, across a sample of 30 countries, using quarterly GDP growth for the period 2005 to 2008. Annual GDP data was also used for the period 2009-2011, and future GDP growth rates were forecasted for the period 2012 to 2016. To reinforce the Stein’s Paradox, the Monte Carlo study is undertaken. It is used to determine how the James-Stein estimates perform under different conditions using a common c or unique c, and to determine which condition will provide more accurate GDP growth rates (Muthen. 2002). Analysis of time series data across a sample of 30 countries using Stein’s Paradox provided better estimates of GDP growth rates than the individual average growth rates for each country based on the lower standard deviation and total squared error of estimation achieved. This shows that the results are closer to theta and have a smaller amount of error, particularly when a common c was used. The Monte Carlo results indicate that better GDP growth rates are achieved when using a common c instead of a unique c given that a smaller standard deviation and variance is derived. Therefore the Monte Carlo study aims to reinforce or verify Stein’s Paradox. The study also indicates that emerging and developing countries seem to be the driving forces of growth in the future, while developed countries seem to be lagging behind. / Thesis (M.Com.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2013.

Unemployment is one of the greatest and most complex challenges facing South Africa. Just like most developing countries, South Africa has been using the fiscal policy framework as a tool to alleviate the high rates of unemployment. This study examined the impact of fiscal policy on unemployment in South Africa. The study used annual time series data for the period 1980 to 2010. A vector error correction model was used to determine the effects of fiscal policy aggregates on unemployment in South Africa. The fiscal policy aggregates considered in this study were government investment expenditure, government consumption expenditure and tax. Results from this study revealed that government consumption expenditure and tax have a positive impact on unemployment while government investment expenditure negatively affects unemployment in South Africa. Policy recommendations were made using these results.