A research report submitted to the Faculty of Humanities, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts (International Relations), 2017 / Through a close reading of the changes that have occurred within African agriculture using Food Regime Theory, this study will attempt to further understand the impact that has been felt by small-scale farmers who are a dominant feature of African agriculture. This paper will seek to understand the influence that the increased corporatization of agriculture through globalization has had on the small-scale farmer in Africa. As agriculture has become more and more corporatized and commodi:ied, it becomes important to consider the changes that have occurred for those actors within the industry and how these changes will impact them. This paper is attempting to do that through a close reading of the changes that have taken place within an integral part of the agricultural process: the seed. / GR2018

xiv, 126 p. : ill., map. A print copy of this thesis is available through the UO Libraries. Search the library catalog for the location and call number. / The government of Malawi is being lauded internationally for having ostensibly eliminated hunger within its borders through a subsidy that makes available chemical fertilizers to smallholder farmers. Development scholarship and policy have recently turned toward promoting a "new" Green Revolution in Africa for the establishment of food security and the advancement of economic development. Many view the increased use of chemical fertilizer in Malawian agriculture and the resultant rise in maize yieldsdescribed by such publications as the New York Times as the "Malawi Mirac1e"-as evidence that the prescribed NGR is indeed a recipe for success. This thesis places the subsidy in its historical and theoretical framework and discusses the extent to which production-end strategies accomplish the goals of food security. Also discussed are nonproduction measures that are essential to creating a reliable and accessible food system. / Committee in Charge: Peter A. Walker, Chair; Derrick L. Hindery

Thesis (MScAgric)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In this study the food and nutritional security of the African continent was analysed based on the three main pillars of food security, namely availability, accessibility and utilisation. FAO‟s Food Balance Sheet method of per capita caloric food supply along with food production, trade and food aid was used for the food availability analysis. Accordingly, the majority of Eastern and Central Africa countries still remain below FAO‟s recommended caloric food supply level. While Ghana and Egypt showed impressive progress, Madagascar and Zambia recorded a deteriorating performance of caloric food supply. Per capita cereal production showed deteriorating performance in Sudan, DRC, Madagascar, South Africa and Nigeria. However, the rate of area harvest (except in South Africa) and yield (except in DRC) increased over the case study countries. On the other hand the majority of African countries struggle to maintain their agricultural trade surplus. Also food aid was found to be more important in the East African region. Among the case study countries, the DRC, Sudan and Ethiopia showed increasing trend of cereal aid receipt over time. The food accessibility analysis of the continent revealed that Africa showed impressive economic growth over the last decade. While it was widespread, those countries with less dependence on mineral resources showed better performance in poverty reduction and income distribution. Besides the economic factors, physical, political and sociocultural factors are also important factors of food accessibility. The food utilisation analysis found that child malnutrition was generally decreasing over the case study countries. However, the level of micronutrient deficiency, especially in children under the age of five, was found to be high in almost all of the case study countries. Except in Egypt, South Africa and Zambia, the percentage of the population with access to better sanitation services was under 30% in all the case study countries. In the DRC, Ethiopia, Madagascar and Mozambique, the percentage of the population with access to improved water services was less than 50%. Although challenged by complex factors, the analysis found out a positive relationship of agricultural growth and food and nutritional security in Africa. Besides its importance as an engine for economic growth and poverty reduction, agriculture enhances nutritional security through the provision of cheap and nutritious food even to remote rural areas. On the other hand the expansion of supermarkets and food price variability found to be both opportunities for and threats to food security. Also unfair international trade environment is negatively affecting food security. To this end, agricultural promotion accompanied with political stability, investment on infrastructure, national and regional market integration together with maintaining productive and sustainable safety nets and social protection schemes are found to be very important. The study used electronic databases of the EIU's Global Food Security Index, FAO's FAOSTAT database, the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the World Bank among others. Analysis of the long-term statistical trends in the quantitative data and a systematic qualitative literature review were the methods employed for undertaking this research at the regional and national level. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In hierdie studie is voedsel- en voedingsekerheid op die Afrika-vasteland op grond van die drie hoofkomponente van voedselsekerheid ontleed, naamlik die beskikbaarheid, toeganklikheid en aanwending van voedsel. Voedselbeskikbaarheid is aan die hand van die parameters van voedselproduksie, -handel en -hulp ondersoek. Uit die lande waarvan gevallestudies onderneem is, toon Zambië 'n daling in kaloriese voedselvoorraad. Ook Nigerië, Soedan en Madagaskar toon 'n afname in die vlak van kaloriese voedselvoorraad oor die afgelope paar jaar. Dít kan verband hou met die waargenome afname in landbouproduksie per kop in daardie lande. Die landbouhandelsontleding dui aan dat Afrika sedert die 1980's 'n suiwer invoerder ten opsigte van landbou geword het. Vier studielande, naamlik Ghana, Ethiopië, Suid-Afrika en Zambië, het egter in 2011 'n landbouhandelsurplus getoon. Daarenteen word voedselhulp oënskynlik al hoe belangriker in die Oos-Afrika-streek. Onder die studielande het die Demokratiese Republiek die Kongo (DRK), Soedan en Ethiopië mettertyd 'n toename in graanhulpontvangste getoon. Die ontleding van voedseltoeganklikheid op die vasteland het aan die lig gebring dat Afrika oor die afgelope dekade indrukwekkende ekonomiese groei beleef het. Hoewel dié groei wydverspreid was, het lande wat minder afhanklik is van minerale hulpbronne beter presteer wat armoedevermindering en inkomsteverdeling betref. Benewens die ekonomiese faktore, is fisiese, politieke en sosiokulturele faktore ook belangrike bepalers van voedseltoeganklikheid. Die ontleding van voedselaanwending het bevind dat wanvoeding onder kinders in die studielande aan die afneem is. Tog is daar 'n hoë vlak van mikrovoedingstoftekorte in bykans al die lande wat bestudeer is, veral by kinders onder die ouderdom van vyf. Buiten Egipte, Suid-Afrika en Zambië, het minder as 30% van die bevolking in die studielande met verloop van tyd toegang tot beter sanitasiedienste bekom. Daarbenewens het minder as 50% van die bevolking in die DRK, Ethiopië, Madagaskar en Mosambiek mettertyd toegang tot beter waterdienste verkry. Hierdie navorsing beklemtoon ook dat landbougroei in Afrika die hoeksteen van voedsel- en voedingsekerheid bly. Benewens die belang daarvan as 'n werktuig vir ekonomiese groei, versterk landbou voedingsekerheid deur goedkoop, voedsame kos te voorsien; deur metodes te bied vir die verhoging van voedingswaarde, soos industriële verryking en bioverryking, en deur met behulp van landbouvoorligtingsdienste in die voedingsbehoeftes van afgeleë landelike gebiede te voorsien. In hierdie opsig word die uitbreiding van supermarkte en die wisselvalligheid van kospryse as 'n geleentheid sowel as 'n bedreiging vir voedselsekerheid beskou. Hoewel supermarkte goedkoop kos van gehalte aan stedelike en buitestedelike inwoners verskaf, kan die gevolglike marginalisasie van kleinskaalboere uit die verskaffingsketting, sowel as die toenemende gesondheidsgevare verbonde aan verwerkte voedsel, 'n bedreiging inhou. Die styging in kospryse kan ook op lang termyn 'n geleentheid bied om boerderyinkomste te verhoog, terwyl dit op kort termyn voedseltoeganklikheid vir arm mense beduidend ondermyn. In dié verband verseker die instandhouding van produktiewe en volhoubare veiligheidsnette en maatskaplike beskermingskemas nie net voedseltoeganklikheid vir die armes nie, maar versterk dit ook algehele voedingsekerheid. Hierdie navorsing op streeks- en nasionale vlak is met behulp van 'n langtermynontleding van statistiese tendense in kwantitatiewe data sowel as 'n stelselmatige kwalitatiewe literatuuroorsig onderneem.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The world population is growing rapidly and places additional pressure on the natural resources of the world. The increase in the world population leads to increasing focus on food security and the nutrition of the world population. Developed countries can only produce up to a certain level to satisfy the demand for food in the world. The additional production needs to come from countries where economic and agricultural development has been lagging. The research identified five major drivers of the future growth of agriculture. These drivers of future growth create opportunities for countries in Africa and help to address the development challenges for their different agricultural sub-sectors. The dairy industry in Southern Africa can play a significant role in addressing food security and nutritional needs of the growing population. Large numbers of livestock are present in Southern Africa because the landscape is lending itself to livestock farming and cultural believes see livestock as wealth in the hands of the owner. There are however serious challenges to address in order to achieve sustainable growth in the dairy industry in Southern Africa. The focus of the report is on the identification of the challenges in the dairy industry in Southern Africa, thus helping with the formulation of a growth strategy and business model. The report used a qualitative method of literature study to determine the challenges faced by the dairy industry in three Southern African countries, i.e. South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia. The contrasts between these countries are significant, but there are also many common elements and challenges. From this range of factors a set of key “challenges for action” has been derived, which are put forward as a basis for public and private sector efforts to strengthen growth in the sector. The list of challenges also assisted in the proposal of a business model to address part of the challenges of development in the dairy industry.

International Relations Masters Research Thesis, 2015 University of Witwatersrand / The G8 New Alliance on Food Security and Nutrition (NAFN) is a new, under-researched and rapidly spreading partnership initiative. As the latest attempt to target hunger in Africa by developed countries, it deserves a certain level of scrutiny to decipher the intended development trajectory for African food systems and the possible implications for smallholder farmers, since these smallholders produce more than ninety percent of the continent’s food supply. Food sovereignty provides the ideal lens through which to analyse the New Alliance, being a political economy critique of agro-industrial food systems, as well as a constitutive approach to rights and the building of a grassroots movement and alternative. This research seeks to ascertain how the New Alliance may globalise African agriculture and undermine food sovereignty. An exploratory research design was used, first historicising African globalised agriculture, then decoding the main objectives of the New Alliance, and finally using the African Food Sovereignty Alliance as a case study to critique its translation into African countries’ commitments. The first few predictions of the hypothesis were strongly validated with findings that the New Alliance will result in large-scale investment of land, the commercialisation of the seed industry and an increased use of agro-chemicals and GMOs, increased foreign investment, and monopolisation of agribusiness by MNCs. To a lesser degree, the prediction that it would decrease barriers to trade and increase imports and exports was confirmed; however, there was little evidence that it intends to cut domestic support measures like some previous development programmes. The New Alliance is beyond reform, built on flawed neoliberal assumptions about development. This and further research could contribute to a movement to abolish the New Alliance before it induces negative long term effects, and to warn off other African countries contemplating this initiative.

A research paper presented in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Master of Arts (MA) Human Rights, Witwatersrand University, South Africa 16 February 2015 / The research looks at the coordination of land policy with population growth and biodiversity loss as a means through which economic, social and cultural rights may be achieved. The argument is made that poor coordination of land policy with social and environmental systems may perpetuate the circumstances that drive poverty in Africa. This given the fact that land policy is a public policy that may challenge the legitimacy of economic, social and cultural rights when not properly coordinated with social and environmental systems. The research questions what considerations are taken into account when determining land policy that reflects the economic, social and cultural needs of the people within a respective State. Given clearly identified dependencies on land for development by the majority of the African population, the research aims to address how land policy may be reformed in order to take on a multilateral perspective regarding coordination, as opposed to the current unilateral perspective that stays within the realm of land administration and commoditization of land. The hypothesis of the paper assumes that current land policies in Africa challenge the legitimacy of economic, social and cultural rights since coordinated with the systems of population growth and biodiversity loss as representatives of social and environmental sectors that most influence poverty are non-existent. The research focuses on the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Kingdom of Lesotho as comparative regions where; regardless of the differing characteristics of both regions, population growth and biodiversity loss prove to be common factors that influence society’s experience of poverty. The paper makes use of structural functionalism and conflict theory as a framework for analysis. Finally, the paper makes suggestions for further study into multilateral land policy reform as a contributing factor to the achievement of human rights. Key Words: Biodiversity Loss, Child Mortality, Corruption, DRC, Economic Social and Cultural Rights, Environmental Services, Food Security, Health, Housing, ICESCR, Land Policy, Land Tenure, Lesotho, Population Growth, World Bank

Sub-Saharan Africa is marginalised in the world economy and lags behind other developing regions in world trade. This is attributable to sub-Saharan Africa's inability to industrialise and diversify its exports base. Sub-Saharan Africa is still largely dependent on the exports of primary commodities, and agriculture is a vital export sector for many Sub-Saharan African economies with the majority of their exports reliant on traditional commodities. Most countries in the sub-Saharan African region have low levels of agricultural output and food security problems. Against this background, this study first discusses the problems associated with primary commodity dependence and then examines the need and economic rationale for sub-Saharan Africa to diversify its exports from agriculture into other sectors. From this, it follows that, diversifying agricultural production and exports into organic produce could be one way to create a more sustainable development path for sub-Saharan African trade and food security. With this in mind, this study discusses the economic viability, including the policy considerations, for organic product diversification in sub-Saharan Africa. In addition, to ascertain the empirical position of this study, a statistical assessment of the supply-side food security situation in three sub-Saharan African major organic converters and exporters (Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda) is presented. The empirical results indicate that among the three countries, considering data trends and variances, Uganda's food security outlook is the most optimistic. / Thesis (M.Com.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2011.

Staple food prices rose sharply in 2007/2008, dropped slightly after July 2008, and rose again in 2010/2011. Since 2008, food prices have remained high, indicating a structural upward adjustment in food prices amidst excessive price volatility. The 2008 food price increases led to considerable media coverage and alarm among governments who implemented a variety of responses to protect their populations from food insecurity. At the start of the high food price crisis in May 2008, the African Union and New Partnership for Africa’s Development (AU/NEPAD) invited 16 African countries to a workshop in South Africa. The aim of the workshop was to assist selected African countries identify and formulate appropriate plans to mitigate food insecurity and manage rising food prices. This study set out to investigate whether the strategies implemented by national governments at the start of the crisis mitigated high food prices through improved risk management strategies in five African countries (Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda and Uganda) and evaluated these strategies to see if they were included in the national agriculture and food security investment plans. To achieve this, the study set out to explore four sub-problems, namely: What was the impact of high food prices on populations in the five selected countries (Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda and Uganda)? How did the five countries respond to the 2008 food price crisis with regard to providing for immediate needs and protecting vulnerable groups from food insecurity? How many early actions were included in country compacts and agriculture and food investment programmes? Do country investment plans include household risk management programmes that will protect vulnerable groups against high food prices in future? The involvement of the researcher in the AU/NEPAD workshop and his subsequent engagement with national government representatives provided a unique opportunity to analyse the iterative process of Country Investment Plan (CIP) development. This innovative and largely qualitative study integrated comparative, content and thematic analysis approaches, using the four elements of the Comprehensive Africa Agricultural Development Programme’s (CAADP) Framework for African Food Security (FAFS) to analyse the national plans. The study drew on available data from a wide variety of national, regional and international documents. Additional data were collected through a survey questionnaire completed by CAADP country focal persons. Data sourced from documents included Food Price Indices, country policy responses to high food prices, poverty and malnutrition indicators and the types of risk management strategies designed under CAADP. The study found that food prices increased across all five countries between 2007 and 2008, although the effects of the increases varied, being influenced by, among other factors, the proportion of national stocks purchased on the international market (i.e. net importers of staple crops), the availability of substitute staples on the domestic market and the magnitude of the difference between international and domestic market prices. The 2008 food price increases forced populations to spend a higher proportion of their income on food and eroded their purchasing power, impacting on the food security of these populations. Poor people adopted eroding consumption strategies that increased food insecurity. The impact of the high food prices on populations was determined by whether they were net food buyers or producers, the mix of staple commodities in their food basket and the proportion of income spent on food. As poor net food importing countries, imported staple foods became too costly, except in Uganda - a net exporter of food staples consumed in the surrounding countries. High food prices also provoked social unrest in Ethiopia and exacerbated political and economic instability in Kenya. Countries’ early responses to the food price crisis were varied and included responses that can be classified into three main categories, namely: Trade-oriented responses protected domestic stocks, reduced tariffs, restricted exports to reduce prices for consumers or increased domestic supply Consumer-oriented responses provided direct support to consumers and vulnerable groups in the form of, among others, food subsidies, social safety nets, tax reductions and price controls Producer-oriented responses provided incentives for farmers to increase production - using measures such as input subsidies and producer price support. Most responses were aimed at managing prices, suggesting that governments tried to protect citizens from price increases and buffer consumption reduction. Safety net programmes mitigated risks through the provision of food for immediate consumption. As a result, malnutrition levels unexpectedly decreased or remained static in these five countries, despite expectations and media claims that the number of hungry people would increase significantly. The early actions from the food price workshop plans were generally systematically translated into long-term programmes in the Compacts and Country Investment Plans. In Ethiopia, seven of eight early action plans were translated into the CIP, Kenya included three of eight, Malawi’s CIP included four of ten, and Rwanda included six of its ten early actions in their CIP programme, while Uganda included only six of thirteen early actions in their CIP. The study found that CIPs included risk management strategies, but these focused predominantly on improving early warning systems and crisis prevention. The risk management options largely included options for improving crisis prevention, followed by improving emergency responses and strengthening risk management policies and institutions. Only Kenya’s CIP included more risk management options for improving emergency responses – four of six risk management programmes. Despite expectations that programmes developed under CAADP FAFS would include all FAFS elements, CIPs lacked programmes to improve dietary quality. Only Rwanda’s CIP included nutrition programmes - three of six programmes in their CIP. The study concluded that while the proposed risk management strategies could mitigate risks associated with high food prices and offer some buffer for populations from food insecurity, the programmes are not comprehensive. The plans were generally weak regarding improving dietary quality through diversification of food consumption and production. Although the CIPs included risk management strategies, these strategies would not address risks in a comprehensive manner. More effective and coherent actions are still required to help the most food insecure populations cope with increasing high food prices and future price shocks; help developing country farmers respond to the opportunities offered by the rising demand for their products; and bring more stability in prices. The early food price response workshop seems to have influenced the development of programmes in the CAADP compact and CIPs, despite the fact that the workshop did not intend to assist countries with the development of comprehensive national investment plans. The large funding gaps in the CIPs constrain implementation of essential mitigation and development strategies and could leave countries vulnerable to the negative impacts of higher prices for consumers and threaten future household food security. The study recommends that countries invest in agriculture-led growth to boost domestic production and strengthen institutional capacities regarding national food stock reserves to reduce their dependency on imports and ensure food insecurity. National monitoring and evaluation systems need to be strengthened to evaluate and monitor the implementation of CIPs and to warn about future high food prices. Empirical estimation of the impact of price increases on households across all CAADP countries is needed to understand and monitor the impact of price changes and interventions. / Thesis (Ph.D.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2012.

In this study, a household resilience score was developed as a measure of rural household resilience to identify households with low resilience and to measure progress towards improved household resilience. Resilience is the ability of households to cope with risk. The motivation for the study originated from the first objective of the Framework of African Food Security (FAFS) of improved household risk management, and the indicator of progress towards this objective – proposed by the FAFS - a resilience score. A review of the literature indicated that the assets owned by a household could be used as a proxy for resilience. The household component of the Demographic and Health Surveys for six African countries was used to develop and apply the resilience score. The score was estimated using an index of assets owned by the household and information regarding household access to certain services and characteristics of the dwelling. There is disagreement in the literature concerning the best method of constructing an asset index in terms of how to weight the variables included in the index. As a result, four methods of constructing an index of socio-economic status (SES) were selected for comparison in this study: two linear principal component analysis (PCA) techniques; a non-linear or categorical principal component analysis (CATPCA) method; and a simple sum of assets technique. The results from the application of each of the four indices to the country data and the resulting classification of households into quintiles of SES were compared across several assessment criteria. No single method out-performed the others across all the assessment criteria. However, the CATPCA method performed better in terms of the proportion of variance explained by the first principal component and the stability of the solution. The results showed that for all methods, SES was not evenly distributed across the sample populations for the countries analysed. This violates the assumption of uniformity implied when using quintiles as classification cut-off points. As an alternate to the quintile split cluster analysis was applied to the SES scores derived for each country. The classification of households into SES groups was repeated using k-means cluster analysis of the household SES scores estimated by the CATPCA method for each country. The results showed that a greater proportion of households fell into relatively lower levels of SES, which is in contrast to the assumption of uniformity of SES made when using the quintile cut-off approach. Cluster analysis better reflected the clustered nature of the household data analysed in this study, compared to the quintile cut-off method. In a final analysis, the index of SES along with k-means cluster analysis was applied to household data from two different time periods for five African countries to determine whether the resilience measure was able to detect changes in household SES between the two periods and, therefore, whether the tool could be used to monitor changes in household resilience over time. The results showed evidence of adjustments in SES over time: there were differences in the per cent of households allocated to the clusters of SES between the two periods. Using the CATPCA index and k-means cluster analysis, Egypt, Uganda and Mali showed an increase in the per cent of 'poor' households, while for Kenya and Tanzania there was a reduction in the per cent of households allocated to the first cluster between time periods: the decrease for Kenya from 2003 to 2008 was as much as 13 percentage points. The observed changes in SES were then compared to changes in national poverty estimates reported in the literature. The resilience score developed in the study displayed an ability to track changes in household SES over time and could be used as a measure of progress towards improved household resilience. As such, the resilience measure could be valuable to policy-makers for monitoring the impacts of policies aimed at improving household resilience. Future research is recommended before the reliability of the resilience measure developed here can be fully ascertained. / Thesis (M.Sc.Agric.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2011.

Water is recognised as a key driver for social and economic development in the Zambezi basin. The basin is riparian to eight southern African countries and the transboundary nature of the basin’s water resources can be viewed as an agent of cooperation between the basin countries. It is possible, however, that the same water resource can lead to conflicts between water users. The southern African Water Vision for ‘equitable and sustainable utilisation of water for social, environmental justice and economic benefits for the present and future generations’ calls for an integrated and efficient management of water resources within the basin. Ensuring water and food security in the Zambezi basin is, however, faced with challenges due to high variability in climate and the available water resources. Water resources are under continuous threat from pollution, increased population growth, development and urbanisation as well as global climate change. These factors increase the demand for freshwater resources and have resulted in water being one of the major driving forces for development. The basin is also vulnerable due to lack of adequate financial resources and appropriate water resources infrastructure to enable viable, equitable and sustainable distribution of the water resources. This is in addition to the fact that the basin’s economic mainstay and social well-being are largely dependent on rainfed agriculture. There is also competition among the different water users and this has the potential to generate conflicts, which further hinder the development of water resources in the basin. This thesis has focused on the Zambezi River basin emphasising climate variability and climate change. It is now considered common knowledge that the global climate is changing and that many of the impacts will be felt through water resources. If these predictions are correct then the Zambezi basin is most likely to suffer under such impacts since its economic mainstay is largely determined by the availability of rainfall. It is the belief of this study that in order to ascertain the impacts of climate change, there should be a basis against which this change is evaluated. If we do not know the historical patterns of variability it may be difficult to predict changes in the future climate and in the hydrological resources and it will certainly be difficult to develop appropriate management strategies. Reliable quantitative estimates of water availability are a prerequisite for successful water resource plans. However, such initiatives have been hindered by paucity in data especially in a basin where gauging networks are inadequate and some of them have deteriorated. This is further compounded by shortages in resources, both human and financial, to ensure adequate monitoring. To address the data problems, this study largely relied on global data sets and the CRU TS2.1 rainfall grids were used for a large part of this study. The study starts by assessing the historical variability of rainfall and streamflow in the Zambezi basin and the results are used to inform the prediction of change in the future. Various methods of assessing historical trends were employed and regional drought indices were generated and evaluated against the historical rainfall trends. The study clearly demonstrates that the basin has a high degree of temporal and spatial variability in rainfall and streamflow at inter-annual and multi-decadal scales. The Standardised Precipitation Index, a rainfall based drought index, is used to assess historical drought events in the basin and it is shown that most of the droughts that have occurred were influenced by climatic and hydrological variability. It is concluded, through the evaluation of agricultural maize yields, that the basin’s food security is mostly constrained by the availability of rainfall. Comparing the viability of using a rainfall based index to a soil moisture based index as an agricultural drought indicator, this study concluded that a soil moisture based index is a better indicator since all of the water balance components are considered in the generation of the index. This index presents the actual amount of water available for the plant unlike purely rainfall based indices, that do not account for other components of the water budget that cause water losses. A number of challenges were, however, faced in assessing the variability and historical drought conditions, mainly due to the fact that most parts of the Zambezi basin are ungauged and available data are sparse, short and not continuous (with missing gaps). Hydrological modelling is frequently used to bridge the data gap and to facilitate the quantification of a basin’s hydrology for both gauged and ungauged catchments. The trend has been to use various methods of regionalisation to transfer information from gauged basins, or from basins with adequate physical basin data, to ungauged basins. All this is done to ensure that water resources are accounted for and that the future can be well planned. A number of approaches leading to the evaluation of the basin’s hydrological response to future climate change scenarios are taken. The Pitman rainfall-runoff model has enjoyed wide use as a water resources estimation tool in southern Africa. The model has been calibrated for the Zambezi basin but it should be acknowledged that any hydrological modelling process is characterised by many uncertainties arising from limitations in input data and inherent model structural uncertainty. The calibration process is thus carried out in a manner that embraces some of the uncertainties. Initial ranges of parameter values (maximum and minimum) that incorporate the possible parameter uncertainties are assigned in relation to physical basin properties. These parameter sets are used as input to the uncertainty version of the model to generate behavioural parameter space which is then further modified through manual calibration. The use of parameter ranges initially guided by the basin physical properties generates streamflows that adequately represent the historically observed amounts. This study concludes that the uncertainty framework and the Pitman model perform quite well in the Zambezi basin. Based on assumptions of an intensifying hydrological cycle, climate changes are frequently expected to result in negative impacts on water resources. However, it is important that basin scale assessments are undertaken so that appropriate future management strategies can be developed. To assess the likely changes in the Zambezi basin, the calibrated Pitman model was forced with downscaled and bias corrected GCM data. Three GCMs were used for this study, namely; ECHAM, GFDL and IPSL. The general observation made in this study is that the near future (2046-2065) conditions of the Zambezi basin are expected to remain within the ranges of historically observed variability. The differences between the predictions for the three GCMs are an indication of the uncertainties in the future and it has not been possible to make any firm conclusions about directions of change. It is therefore recommended that future water resources management strategies account for historical patterns of variability, but also for increased uncertainty. Any management strategies that are able to satisfactorily deal with the large variability that is evident from the historical data should be robust enough to account for the near future patterns of water availability predicted by this study. However, the uncertainties in these predictions suggest that improved monitoring systems are required to provide additional data against which future model outputs can be assessed.