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Thesis (M.B.A.)--Boston University / PLEASE NOTE: Boston University Libraries did not receive an Authorization To Manage form for this thesis or dissertation. It is therefore not openly accessible, though it may be available by request. If you are the author or principal advisor of this work and would like to request open access for it, please contact us at open-help@bu.edu. Thank you. / 2031-01-01

The aim of this thesis was to examine the effects of people???s current moods and emotions on affective forecasting. The primary hypothesis was mood congruence: people currently feeling happy were expected to generate relatively positive affective forecasts and people currently feeling sad were expected to generate relatively negative forecasts compared to people currently in a neutral state. In addition, a moderated mood congruence hypothesis, predicted by the Affect Infusion Model (AIM, Forgas, 1995), stating that mood congruence effects are more pronounced under conditions of constructive processing, was tested. Two secondary hypotheses concerning the processing and motivational consequences of transient moods were also examined in each of the studies in this thesis. Studies 1 to 3 examined these hypotheses using a variety of manipulations of constructive processing. In Study 1, happy, neutral and sad participants made affective forecasts about a variety of everyday events, under overt instructions to process constructively or not. In Study 2, the ambiguity of the forecast was the manipulation of constructive processing. In Study 3, Need for Cognition, was used as a measure of constructive processing. Results of Studies 1-3, however, did not support either the mood congruence or the moderated mood congruence hypotheses. Further, neither of the secondary hypotheses was supported. Studies 4 and 5 examined the influence of transient high arousal emotions on affective forecasts. In Study 4, anxious or neutral people forecasted their feelings about an upcoming public speaking engagement and also rated their willingness to give a public speech. Study 5 replicated and extended Study 4 by examining how happy, sad and angry participants made those same predictions. In both Study 4 and 5, anxious people made more pessimistic forecasts and were less likely to engage in a public speech than were neutrals. This effect did not generalize to anger. Results suggest that while anxiety does have implications for affective forecasting and decision making, lower intensity moods and anger do not. Implications of these results are discussed with a focus on the benefits of an emotion-specific approach to the study of affect and affective forecasting.

Forecasts of the likelihood of occurrence of various amounts of precipitation are very important, since excessive precipitation amounts over relatively short time periods can have adverse effects on public safety and economic efficiency, As a result, forecasters at the National Weather Service Forecast Office in San Antonio, Texas were asked to formulate subjective probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts on an experimental basis beginning in February 1981. This study describes methods of evaluating probability forecasts of this ordinal variable and presents some results of the first year of the experiment. Scalar and vector evaluation procedures are described. In the case of scalar evaluation, the inclusion of a no-skill line and a no-correlation line on reliability diagrams is helpful in representing the skill, reliability, and resolution qeometrically in two-state situations. Geometrical interpretations of attributes of forecasts can also be accomplished in three-state situations based on vector evaluation procedures. A skill score for subsample forecasts is shown to be useful in identifying systematic errors made by forecasters or forecast systems. A beta model is developed to obtain a forecaster's predictive distributions (i.e., the distribution of use of probability values). The experimental results show that the skill of the subjective forecasts is generally higher than the skill of objective guidance forecasts for measurable precipitation (i.e., precipitation amounts exceeding a threshold of 0.01 inches), but that the opposite is true for threshold associated with larger precipitation amounts. This result is due primarily to the forecaster's tendency to over forecast for the events associated with higher precipitation thresholds. The tendency to over forecast is most pronounced in the nighttime forecasts and in the forecasts for drier stations. The MCS objective guidance forecasts, on the other hand, are quite reliable for both periods and all stations. The vector evaluation approach indicates that the degree of overforecasting is quite high for bimodal forecasts and that the skill contribution from bimodal forecasts is negative in many cases. / Graduation date: 1983

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Ohio State University, 2006. / Full text release at OhioLINK's ETD Center delayed at author's request

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Washington, 2003. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 100-109).

The aim of this thesis was to examine the effects of people???s current moods and emotions on affective forecasting. The primary hypothesis was mood congruence: people currently feeling happy were expected to generate relatively positive affective forecasts and people currently feeling sad were expected to generate relatively negative forecasts compared to people currently in a neutral state. In addition, a moderated mood congruence hypothesis, predicted by the Affect Infusion Model (AIM, Forgas, 1995), stating that mood congruence effects are more pronounced under conditions of constructive processing, was tested. Two secondary hypotheses concerning the processing and motivational consequences of transient moods were also examined in each of the studies in this thesis. Studies 1 to 3 examined these hypotheses using a variety of manipulations of constructive processing. In Study 1, happy, neutral and sad participants made affective forecasts about a variety of everyday events, under overt instructions to process constructively or not. In Study 2, the ambiguity of the forecast was the manipulation of constructive processing. In Study 3, Need for Cognition, was used as a measure of constructive processing. Results of Studies 1-3, however, did not support either the mood congruence or the moderated mood congruence hypotheses. Further, neither of the secondary hypotheses was supported. Studies 4 and 5 examined the influence of transient high arousal emotions on affective forecasts. In Study 4, anxious or neutral people forecasted their feelings about an upcoming public speaking engagement and also rated their willingness to give a public speech. Study 5 replicated and extended Study 4 by examining how happy, sad and angry participants made those same predictions. In both Study 4 and 5, anxious people made more pessimistic forecasts and were less likely to engage in a public speech than were neutrals. This effect did not generalize to anger. Results suggest that while anxiety does have implications for affective forecasting and decision making, lower intensity moods and anger do not. Implications of these results are discussed with a focus on the benefits of an emotion-specific approach to the study of affect and affective forecasting.

Thesis (Ph. D. - Hydrology and Water Resources Administration)--University of Arizona, 1986. / Bibliography: leaves 146-151.

Thesis (M.S. in Physical Oceanography)--Naval Postgraduate School, December 2008. / Thesis Advisor(s): Paduan, Jeffrey. "December 2008." Description based on title screen as viewed on January 29, 2009. Includes bibliographical references (p. 67-69). Also available in print.