Forecasting capital expenditures in early stages of an offshore wind power project is aproblematic process. The process can be affected by optimism bias and strategicmisrepresentation which may result in cost overruns. This thesis is a response to issuesregarding cost overruns in offshore wind power projects. The aim of this thesis is tocreate a cost forecasting method which can estimate the necessary capital budget in awind power project. The author presents a two-step model which both applies the inside view and outsideview. The inside view contains equations related to investment and installation costs.The outside view applies reference class forecasting in order to adjust the necessary costcontingency budget. The combined model will therefore forecast capital expenditures fora specific site and adjust the cost calculations with regard to previous similar projects. The results illustrate that the model is well correlated with normalized cost estimationsin other projects. A hypothetical 150MW offshore wind farm is estimated to costbetween 2.9 million €/MW and 3.5 million €/MW depending on the location of the windfarm.

Stakeholder driven research has been advocated to link hydroclimatic research with the needs and capabilities of groups affected by climatic variability and related governmental policies. A stakeholder driven research agenda was designed, focusing on hydroclimatic forecasts and their assessment, within the context of an interdisciplinary integrated assessment of the vulnerability of diverse stakeholders to climate variability in the U.S. Southwest. Water management, ranching, and wildland fire management stakeholders were solicited for their input. Their perspectives about hydroclimatic variability and opportunities for using hydroclimatic forecasts differed widely. Many individuals were uninformed or had mistaken impressions about seasonal hydroclimatic forecasts, but understood practical differences between forecasts for "normal" conditions and "nonforecasts" having total uncertainty. Uncertainty about the accuracy of forecasts precludes their more effective use, as does difficulty in distinguishing between "good" and "bad" information. A survey of hydroclimatic forecasting confirmed stakeholder perceptions and identified improvements in hydrologic predictability that could be rapidly incorporated into current operations. Users faced a complex and evolving mix of forecasts available from many sources, but few corresponding interpretive materials or reviews of past performance. Contrasts between the state of meteorologic and hydrologic forecasting were notable, especially in the former's greater operational flexibility and more rapid incorporation of new observations and research products. The research agenda uses predictions as the linkage between stakeholders and scientific advances in observations (e.g., snow conditions) or process understanding. The agenda focuses on two areas: (1) incremental improvement of seasonal water supply forecasts, and (2) improvement of stakeholder perceptions of forecasts through ongoing forecast assessments. A forecast evaluation framework was developed that provides consistency in assessing different forecast products, in ways that that allow individuals to access results at the level they are capable of understanding, while offering opportunity for shifting to more sophisticated criteria. Using the framework, seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks issued by the National Weather Service were evaluated, considering regions, lead times, seasons, and criteria relevant to different stakeholders. Evaluations that reflect specific user perspectives provide different assessments of forecast performance. Frequently updated, targeted forecast evaluations should be available to potential users.

The gradual changes in the world development have brought energy issues back into high profile. An ongoing challenge for countries around the world is to balance the development gains against its effects on the environment. The energy management is the key factor of any sustainable development program. All the aspects of development in agriculture, power generation, social welfare and industry in Iran are crucially related to the energy and its revenue. Forecasting end-use natural gas consumption is an important Factor for efficient system operation and a basis for planning decisions. In this thesis, particle swarm optimization (PSO) used to forecast long run natural gas consumption in Iran. Gas consumption data in Iran for the previous 34 years is used to predict the consumption for the coming years. Four linear and nonlinear models proposed and six factors such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Population, National Income (NI), Temperature, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and yearly Natural Gas (NG) demand investigated.

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published_or_final_version / Statistics / Master / Master of Philosophy

published_or_final_version / Civil Engineering / Master / Master of Philosophy

published_or_final_version / Civil Engineering / Master / Master of Philosophy

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Purpose & research questions: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the roleand influence trend institutes have on the decision a designer makes in the designand development of a garment/product’s lifecycle. Theoretical approach: The theoretical framework is based on the theories ofsustainability and trends but also on previous studies and models concerning thefashion design process and the environmental aspects of a garment’s lifecycle. Research Approach: The research uses a qualitative method based on multiple casestudies as research design. Conclusion: This research reveals that trend institutes have little or no influence atall for small, independent and high-end fashion designers, especially in sustainablefashion design because trend institutes are not perceived as knowledgeable enough oradvocates, yet. However, it is important to bear in mind the need to maintain thepicture of the high-end fashion designer as the one and only fashion contributor.Furthermore, The research evidences that there is no such thing as sustainabilitycommunication at trend institutes.