A two-level diagnostic baroclinic model is constructed for the purpose of examining the role of latent heat release in the production of vertical motion and rainfall. Incorporated in the model are terrain and frictional inflow effects and a variable level of non-divergence. The computations are carried out on a 300 point standard rectangular grid covering the North American continent. [...]

Recently is topicality making wherewith more electrical energy from “clean” stockholding. Detractive hothouse gas exhaustion to the atmosphere. One “clean” energy is – wind power. Wind plans working in the commensurable electrical energy supply system, must “nuisance��. For this purpose essential wind electricity work forecast and respectively react to the situation. Wind power – station made electrical energy forecasting analysis I done sustaining by California experience. Forecasting is executable by wind forecast ground. Wind forecasts possible get from meteorological dimensional station or other institutions which doing wind range. Wind power – stations work essential to forecast at one hour 48 hours to the future. Such period is needful to other power – stations reaction. Wind power – stations worst worth to be built in the seaside zone or in the local pelagic there are not high flora or buildings. Wind power – stations can be built and in the others regions, but then increase the period of dividend.

Bakalauro darbe pritaikomi įvairūs bankroto prognozavimo modeliai bei apskaičiuoti bankrotą labiausiai įtakojantys finansiniai santykiniai rodikliai. Pirmojoje darbo dalyje analizuojama bankroto esmė, požymiai, priežastys ir pasekmės, daugėlis bankroto prognozavimo modelių, santykinių rodiklių sistemos prognozuojant bankroto tikimybę. Antroje darbo dalyje analizuojamos pirmoje dalyje pateiktų: Altman, G. Springate, R. Liss, R. Taffler ir H. Tisshaw, J. Fulmer ir Ca – Score bankroto prognozavimo modelių pritaikymo skirtinguose sektoriuose veikiančioms įmonėms galimybės, įvertinta pelningumo ir mokumo santykinių rodiklių ryšys su bankroto prognozavimo modeliais. Apskaičiuotas koreliacinis ryšys tarp pelningumo ir mokumo rodiklių bei bankroto prognozavimo modelių. / Bachelor of science in a variety of bankruptcy prediction at work everyday, and calculate the bankruptcy of most models affecting financial relatives. The first part examines the essence of the work of the bankruptcy, symptoms, causes and consequences of bankruptcy prediction models, daugėlis, relative indicators system for predicting the likelihood of bankruptcy. The second part of the first part of the work is analyzed by the following: E. Altman, G. Springate, R. Liss, R. Taffler and H. Tisshaw, J. Fulmer and CA-Score bankruptcy prediction models for the adaptation of undertakings active in the different sectors, estimated profitability and solvency relative indicators in relation to the bankruptcy prediction models. Estimated correlation link between profitability and solvency of indicators and bankruptcy prediction models.

The increasing penetration of renewable energy in the power system grid makes it one of the most important topics in electricity generation, now and into the future. Tidal current energy is one of the most rapidly growing technologies for generating electric energy. Within that frame, tidal current energy is surging to the fore. Forecasting is the first step in dealing with future generations of the tidal current power systems. The doubly-fed induction generator (DFIG) and the direct drive permanent magnet synchronous generator (DDPMSG) are the most commonly used generators associated with tidal current turbines. The aim of the present work is to propose a forecasting technique for tidal current speed and direction and to develop dedicated control strategies for the most commonly used generators, enabling the turbines to act as an active component in the power system. This thesis is divided into two parts. The first part proposes a hybrid model of an artificial neural network (ANN) and a Fourier series model based on the least squares method (FLSM) for monthly forecasting of tidal current speed magnitude and direction. The proposed hybrid model is highly accurate and outperforms both the ANN and the FLSM alone. The model is validated and shown to perform better than other models currently in use. This study was done using data collected from the Bay of Fundy, Nova Scotia, Canada, in 2008. The second part of the thesis describes the overall dynamic models of the tidal current turbine driving either a DFIG or a DDPMSG connected to a single machine infinite bus system, including controllers used to improve system stability. Two models are tested and validated, and two proportional integral (PI) controllers are proposed for each machine to control the output power of the tidal current turbine. The controllers are tested using a small signal stability analysis method for the models, and prove the robustness of the tidal current turbine using two different types of generators over those without controllers. The controller gain ranges are also investigated to establish zones of stability. Overall results show the advantages of using a DDPMSG over a DFIG.

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This thesis was undertaken with the intention of applying forecasting with time series analysis, in a manufacturing context. This involved two phases: the updating of existing forecasting techniques, and the application of these techniques to a manufacturing firm. The existing techniques, developed mainly by Brown in the 1960's, had to be adapted for computer application, to allow fast and objective computation of forecasts. This required an investigation into the derivation of each algebraic model, previously computed by hand, and translating those intuitive steps into routine ones. Furthermore, the revision of each forecast in the light of new data had to be dealt with mechanically. As for the application, the data supplied by the client, a large South African manufacturing firm, did not permit a successful application. This concerned both the manner in which the data were recorded (inconsistent time intervals), and the volume of data readily accessible. This then led the thesis in an unanticipated direction to overcome these difficulties. To do this objectively, it became necessary to generate test data with known characteristics, then to study how many data were required to recover those characteristics. Generating data required an investigation into random number generation, real data consisting of both true changes as well as a percentage of random fluctuations. A random data series was, therefore, added to the series with known characteristics. Such characteristics are unknown for genuine data, such as those supplied by the client. Empirical experimentation with the generated data, led to the determination of the number of data required to recover coefficients of various complexity. This number was found to be contrary to the statements made by Brown on this topic, significantly more data being required than was previously thought. Finally, an attempt was made to select an appropriate model for the client's data, based on the knowledge gained from investigating generated data. / Thesis (M.Soc.Sc.)-University of Natal, Durban, 1998.

This thesis investigates the patterns of each type of energy consumption for fourteen countries, to study the link between energy consumption, economics and population. It was found that for all the countries studied, there is a decrease in energy consumption relative to economic growth. This shows that the world has become less energy based, and is more efficient in using energy to produce economic wealth. The carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions for each fossil fuel type used for electricity generation in New Zealand: coal, gas and oil was also calculated. Gas is the main contributor of CO₂ by electricity generation for New Zealand. New Zealand's CO₂ emissions from electricity generation have nearly tripled in the last 12 years. Despite the environmental concerns of global warming and the Kyoto protocol, there has been a large increase in total CO₂ emitted. This increase has seen a replacement of gas by coal in order to continue to meet the electricity demand of the nation. New Zealand has a small energy market relative to the global market. World energy market patterns show a recent history of oil declining, coal declining, gas increasing and the significant presence of nuclear. Renewable energies are insignificant on the world scene. These are marked contrasts to the New Zealand scene. Of the renewable energy supply fuels, both hydro and geothermal have been in decline, from before deregulation. This trend will continue in the future if left to market forces. Although renewable energy may be a solution to New Zealand's energy supply, the increase in market share of other renewable energies to date is limited. They are unlikely to be sufficient to cover New Zealand's energy demand in the near future. With New Zealand being dependent on the world supply of oil, the expected depletion of the Maui gas field, the low market share for renewable energy and rising concerns about pollution, the green house effects and global warming, nuclear power is considered an option in New Zealand.