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An early warning information system for militarised interstate conflicts : combining the interactive liberal peace proposition with neural network modellingLagazio, Monica January 2001 (has links)
No description available.
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A computer model that forecats the cash flow of building projects at the tender stage using stage paymentsBlyth, Karl Anthony January 2002 (has links)
No description available.
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Sales forecasting by the method of exponential smoothingCarbone, Joseph January 1964 (has links)
Thesis (M.B.A.)--Boston University / PLEASE NOTE: Boston University Libraries did not receive an Authorization To Manage form for this thesis or dissertation. It is therefore not openly accessible, though it may be available by request. If you are the author or principal advisor of this work and would like to request open access for it, please contact us at open-help@bu.edu. Thank you. / 2031-01-01
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Feeling the future: the role of current emotions in affective forecastingLaham, Simon M., Psychology, Faculty of Science, UNSW January 2005 (has links)
The aim of this thesis was to examine the effects of people???s current moods and emotions on affective forecasting. The primary hypothesis was mood congruence: people currently feeling happy were expected to generate relatively positive affective forecasts and people currently feeling sad were expected to generate relatively negative forecasts compared to people currently in a neutral state. In addition, a moderated mood congruence hypothesis, predicted by the Affect Infusion Model (AIM, Forgas, 1995), stating that mood congruence effects are more pronounced under conditions of constructive processing, was tested. Two secondary hypotheses concerning the processing and motivational consequences of transient moods were also examined in each of the studies in this thesis. Studies 1 to 3 examined these hypotheses using a variety of manipulations of constructive processing. In Study 1, happy, neutral and sad participants made affective forecasts about a variety of everyday events, under overt instructions to process constructively or not. In Study 2, the ambiguity of the forecast was the manipulation of constructive processing. In Study 3, Need for Cognition, was used as a measure of constructive processing. Results of Studies 1-3, however, did not support either the mood congruence or the moderated mood congruence hypotheses. Further, neither of the secondary hypotheses was supported. Studies 4 and 5 examined the influence of transient high arousal emotions on affective forecasts. In Study 4, anxious or neutral people forecasted their feelings about an upcoming public speaking engagement and also rated their willingness to give a public speech. Study 5 replicated and extended Study 4 by examining how happy, sad and angry participants made those same predictions. In both Study 4 and 5, anxious people made more pessimistic forecasts and were less likely to engage in a public speech than were neutrals. This effect did not generalize to anger. Results suggest that while anxiety does have implications for affective forecasting and decision making, lower intensity moods and anger do not. Implications of these results are discussed with a focus on the benefits of an emotion-specific approach to the study of affect and affective forecasting.
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Evaluation of a probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting experimentHsu, Wu-ron 24 June 1982 (has links)
Forecasts of the likelihood of occurrence of various
amounts of precipitation are very important, since
excessive precipitation amounts over relatively short time
periods can have adverse effects on public safety and
economic efficiency, As a result, forecasters at the
National Weather Service Forecast Office in San Antonio,
Texas were asked to formulate subjective probabilistic
quantitative precipitation forecasts on an experimental
basis beginning in February 1981. This study describes
methods of evaluating probability forecasts of this
ordinal variable and presents some results of the first
year of the experiment.
Scalar and vector evaluation procedures are
described. In the case of scalar evaluation, the
inclusion of a no-skill line and a no-correlation line on
reliability diagrams is helpful in representing the skill,
reliability, and resolution qeometrically in two-state
situations. Geometrical interpretations of attributes of
forecasts can also be accomplished in three-state
situations based on vector evaluation procedures. A skill
score for subsample forecasts is shown to be useful in
identifying systematic errors made by forecasters or
forecast systems. A beta model is developed to obtain a
forecaster's predictive distributions (i.e., the
distribution of use of probability values).
The experimental results show that the skill of the
subjective forecasts is generally higher than the skill of
objective guidance forecasts for measurable precipitation
(i.e., precipitation amounts exceeding a threshold of 0.01
inches), but that the opposite is true for threshold
associated with larger precipitation amounts. This result
is due primarily to the forecaster's tendency to
over forecast for the events associated with higher
precipitation thresholds. The tendency to over forecast is
most pronounced in the nighttime forecasts and in the
forecasts for drier stations. The MCS objective guidance
forecasts, on the other hand, are quite reliable for both
periods and all stations. The vector evaluation approach
indicates that the degree of overforecasting is quite high
for bimodal forecasts and that the skill contribution from
bimodal forecasts is negative in many cases. / Graduation date: 1983
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An investigation of accuracy, learning and biases in judgmental adjustments of statistical forecastsEroglu, Cuneyt. January 2006 (has links)
Thesis (Ph. D.)--Ohio State University, 2006. / Full text release at OhioLINK's ETD Center delayed at author's request
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Using climate model ensemble forecasts for seasonal hydrologic prediction /Wood, Andrew W. January 2003 (has links)
Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Washington, 2003. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 100-109).
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Feeling the future: the role of current emotions in affective forecastingLaham, Simon M., Psychology, Faculty of Science, UNSW January 2005 (has links)
The aim of this thesis was to examine the effects of people???s current moods and emotions on affective forecasting. The primary hypothesis was mood congruence: people currently feeling happy were expected to generate relatively positive affective forecasts and people currently feeling sad were expected to generate relatively negative forecasts compared to people currently in a neutral state. In addition, a moderated mood congruence hypothesis, predicted by the Affect Infusion Model (AIM, Forgas, 1995), stating that mood congruence effects are more pronounced under conditions of constructive processing, was tested. Two secondary hypotheses concerning the processing and motivational consequences of transient moods were also examined in each of the studies in this thesis. Studies 1 to 3 examined these hypotheses using a variety of manipulations of constructive processing. In Study 1, happy, neutral and sad participants made affective forecasts about a variety of everyday events, under overt instructions to process constructively or not. In Study 2, the ambiguity of the forecast was the manipulation of constructive processing. In Study 3, Need for Cognition, was used as a measure of constructive processing. Results of Studies 1-3, however, did not support either the mood congruence or the moderated mood congruence hypotheses. Further, neither of the secondary hypotheses was supported. Studies 4 and 5 examined the influence of transient high arousal emotions on affective forecasts. In Study 4, anxious or neutral people forecasted their feelings about an upcoming public speaking engagement and also rated their willingness to give a public speech. Study 5 replicated and extended Study 4 by examining how happy, sad and angry participants made those same predictions. In both Study 4 and 5, anxious people made more pessimistic forecasts and were less likely to engage in a public speech than were neutrals. This effect did not generalize to anger. Results suggest that while anxiety does have implications for affective forecasting and decision making, lower intensity moods and anger do not. Implications of these results are discussed with a focus on the benefits of an emotion-specific approach to the study of affect and affective forecasting.
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A probabilistic approach to flash flood forecastingZevin, Susan Faye, January 1986 (has links) (PDF)
Thesis (Ph. D. - Hydrology and Water Resources Administration)--University of Arizona, 1986. / Bibliography: leaves 146-151.
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The influence of wind on HF radar surface current forecastsde Almeida, Francisco M. S. C. January 2008 (has links) (PDF)
Thesis (M.S. in Physical Oceanography)--Naval Postgraduate School, December 2008. / Thesis Advisor(s): Paduan, Jeffrey. "December 2008." Description based on title screen as viewed on January 29, 2009. Includes bibliographical references (p. 67-69). Also available in print.
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