This paper shows the important role of government in determining the behavior of firms in emerging markets by focusing on their response to exchange-rate exposure. We measure the foreign exchange-rate exposure of Korean firms and investigate into its determinant factors. Our results show that around 15 percent of the firms have significant exposure and there exists a structural shift of the firms' exposure during our experimental period. In the earlier subperiod, firms tend to have positive exposure while in the later subperiod firms tend to have negative one. Our results also show the significant role of government intervention when Korean firms deal with their exchange-rate exposure. Firms with more government intervention tend to over-invest and care less about their exposure. As a result, firms with more government intervention tend to expose more. Our results also show that chaebol firms usually have lower exposures. It can, at least partly, be attribute to size effect because those firms tend to be large firms. The evidences uncovered in this paper are very different from the existing studies based on developed countries. / Yan Hong-jun. / Adviser: Jia He. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 62-09, Section: A, page: 3138. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2001. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 56-59). / Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, MI : ProQuest dissertations and theses, [200-] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / School code: 1307.

Lam Man Kin, Wong Yim Pan. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1992. / Includes bibliographical references. / ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS --- p.ii / ABSTRACT --- p.iii / TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.iv / LIST OF TABLES --- p.vi / LIST OF FIGURES --- p.vii / Chapter / Chapter I. --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter II. --- A BRIEF REVIEW OF THE MODELS FOR FOREIGN EXCHANGE DETERMINATION --- p.6 / Purchasing Power Parity --- p.6 / Flexible Price Monetary Model --- p.9 / Sticky Price Monetary Model -Exchange Rate Dynamics --- p.11 / Portfolio Balance Approach --- p.14 / Insights --- p.16 / Chapter III. --- THE LINKED EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEM --- p.18 / A Brief Historical Account --- p.18 / The Linked Exchange Rate System and Interest Rate --- p.19 / The Linked Exchange Rate System and Inflation Rate --- p.21 / The Pattern of Interest Rate Since Oct. 1983 --- p.22 / "The Pattern of Inflation Rate Since Oct., 1983" --- p.23 / "The Change of Real Exchange Rate Since Oct.,1983" --- p.23 / Chapter VI. --- METHODOLOGIES FOR THE EMPIRICAL STUDIES --- p.31 / The Data --- p.31 / Statistical Techniques --- p.32 / Models to be studied --- p.32 / Absolute PPP --- p.32 / Relative PPP --- p.33 / Augmented PPP Model --- p.34 / Hong Kong Inflation and US Inflation --- p.35 / Hong Kong Interest Rate and US Interest Rate --- p.36 / Interest Rate and Inflation Rate of Hong Kong --- p.36 / Chapter V. --- EMPIRICAL RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS --- p.38 / PPP Model --- p.38 / Absolute PPP --- p.38 / Relationship between Exchange Rate and Price Levels --- p.43 / Relative PPP --- p.43 / Inflations of Hong Kong and the US --- p.45 / Percentage change of exchange rate and inflation --- p.46 / Augmented PPP Model: Incorporate Interest Rates in PPP Model --- p.47 / Absolute PPP --- p.47 / Interest Rates and Short Term Fluctuation of Exchange Rate --- p.48 / Relative PPP --- p.49 / Interest Rates and the Percentage Change of Exchange Rate --- p.51 / Hong Kong Inflation and US Inflation --- p.51 / The Divergence of Two Inflation Rates --- p.52 / Hong Kong Interest Rate and US Interest Rate --- p.53 / Hong Kong Inflation and Hong Kong Interest Rates --- p.55 / Chapter VI. --- CONCLUSION --- p.57 / Limitations --- p.59 / APPENDIX / I --- p.61 / II --- p.67 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.78

本文主要研究實際匯率出口彈性對中國貧富懸殊的影響。我們使用了二十八個省份從1995年至2008年的數據。結果顯示實際匯率出口彈性愈高的省份其城鄉收入差距就會愈廣。另外，我們使用了各省的加工出口比例作為實際匯率出口彈性的工具變量。 / 本文主要的貢獻在於分別地考慮出口數量和出口的商品種類來研究開放度對貧富懸殊的關係。在分開了出口數量和出口商品的種類對貧富懸殊的影響後，我們發現數據中呈現的中國對外開放度和貧富懸殊的正向關係，是基於出口商品的種類改變，而非如以前的文獻所說，是基於出口量的增長。因此，要決定一個省份的城鄉收入差距，該省份生產甚麼比其生產數量更重要。 / This paper investigates the effect of export elasticity to real exchange rate and on urban-rural income disparity in China. We use annual data from 28 provinces from 1995 to 2008. The main finding is that provinces producing more elastic exported goods would have a higher urban-rural income inequality. We also construct the processing export ratio as an instrumental variable for the elasticity terms. / One main contribution of this paper is to consider separately the effect of export value and the composition of exports when we examine the relationship between openness and income inequality. After separating the effect of export value and the composition of exports, we find that the positive relationship between openness and income inequality mentioned in previous literature is caused by a change in export composition, rather than in export value. Hence, what the provinces produce matters much more than how much they produce when we determine urban-rural income inequality. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Chan, Ying Tung. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 32-34). / Abstracts also in Chinese. / ABSTRACT --- p.II / 摘要 --- p.III / ACKNOWLEDGMENTS --- p.IV / Chapter 1 --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- OPENNESS AND INEQUALITY --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- COMPOSITION OF INCOME INEQUALITY IN CHINA --- p.2 / Chapter 2 --- LITERATURE REVIEWS --- p.4 / Chapter 2.1 --- LITERATURE ON THE CAUSE OF INCOME INEQUALITY IN CHINA --- p.4 / Chapter 2.2 --- LITERATURE ON THE EFFECT OF OPENNESS ON INCOME INEQUALITY IN CHINA --- p.6 / Chapter 2.3 --- LITERATURE ON THE COMPOSITION OF EXPORTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA --- p.9 / Chapter 3 --- DATA --- p.11 / Chapter 4 --- REGRESSION MODEL --- p.12 / Chapter 4.1 --- REGRESSION RESULT (WITHOUT THE ELASTICITY TERM) --- p.15 / Chapter 4.2 --- ROLLING REGRESSION FOR ESTIMATING THE ELASTICITY TERMS --- p.17 / Chapter 4.3 --- REGRESSION RESULT OF REGRESSION (1) --- p.19 / Chapter 4.4 --- INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLE FOR THE ELASTICITY TERM --- p.20 / Chapter 4.5 --- REGRESSION RESULT AFTER USING TWO-STAGE LEAST SQUARE (2SLS) --- p.23 / Chapter 5 --- DISCUSSION --- p.24 / Chapter 6 --- CONCLUSION --- p.29 / REFERENCES --- p.32

by Ng Yiu Hong. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1997. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 77-80). / Chapter ONE --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter TWO --- HONG KONG'S IMPORT PERFORMANCE --- p.5 / Chapter THREE --- REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE --- p.9 / The Elasticity Approach / Market Structure and Product Characteristics / Long-Run Profit Maximization / Hysteresis Models / Multinational Corporations and Intra-Firm Trade / Non-Tariff Barriers / Other Explanations / Chapter FOUR --- THE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK --- p.19 / Chapter FIVE --- DATA AND ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS --- p.22 / Data / Econometric Analysis / Chapter SIX --- EMPIRICAL RESULTS --- p.33 / Chapter SEVEN --- CONCLUSION --- p.40 / TABLES --- p.43 / APPENDIX --- p.64 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.77

Exchange rates are believed to be one of the major driving forces behind sustainable macroeconomic growth and it is therefore important to ensure that they are at an appropriate level. Exchange rate misalignment is a situation where the actual exchange rate differs significantly from its equilibrium value, resulting in either an overvalued or an undervalued currency. The problem with an undervalued currency is that it will increase the domestic price of tradable goods whereas an overvalued currency will cause a fall in the domestic prices of the tradable goods. Persistent exchange rate misalignment is thus expected to result in severe macroeconomic instability. The aim of this study is to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for both Ghana and Nigeria. After so doing, the equilibrium real exchange rate is compared to the actual real exchange rate, in order to assess the extent of real exchange rate misalignment in both countries, if any such exists. In order test the applicability of the equilibrium exchange rate models, the study draws from the simple monetary model as well as the Edwards (1989) and Montiel (1999) models. These models postulate that the variables which determine the real exchange rate are the terms of trade, trade restrictions, domestic interest rates, foreign aid inflow, income, money supply, world inflation, government consumption expenditure, world interest rates, capital controls and technological progress. Due to data limitations in Ghana and in Nigeria, not all the variables are utilised in the study. The study uses the Johansen (1995) model as well as the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to estimate the long- and the short-run relationships between the above-mentioned determinants and the real exchange rate. Thereafter the study employs the Hodrick-Prescott filter to estimate the permanent equilibrium exchange rate. The study estimates a real exchange rate model each for Ghana and Nigeria. Both the exchange rate models for Ghana and Nigeria provide evidence of exchange rate misalignment. The model for Ghana shows that from the first quarter of 1980 to the last quarter of 1983 the real exchange rate was overvalued; thereafter the exchange rate moved close to its equilibrium value and was generally undervalued with few and short-lived episodes of overvaluation. In regard to real exchange rate misalignment in Nigeria prior to the Structural Adjustment Program in 1986 there were episodes of undervaluation from the first quarter of 1980 to the first quarter of 1984 and overvaluation from the second quarter of 1984 to the third quarter of 1986; thereafter the exchange rate was generally and marginally undervalued.

published_or_final_version / Economics and Finance / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

M.Comm. / The object of this study is to critically appraise the fundamental models, technical methods and statistical techniques that constitute the bulk of exchange rate forecasting methodology. Specifically, can any single approach, or combination of techniques, predict or explain the volatile currency movements characterising exchange rate behaviour in the modern international currency market? International currency markets are indeed complex in nature, and the layperson may be excused for not grasping the distinction between the fundamental, technical and statistical techniques described in the hypothesis. It is vital, however, for the comprehension of this study that the distinction between these approaches be explained, and the logic underlying their individual methodologies examined. It may prima facie seem that this study is based on a contradiction. Surely if one wants to predict an economic variable of any kind, one should refer to the economic theory upon which it is based as the starting point of an analysis. Consequently, if the objective is to forecast the future value of a currency, surely there are a great many economic texts that deal with this very question in voluminous detail. Why, then, should yet another paper be written when so much literature already exists? The answer lies not so much in the scope as in the purpose of this work. The aim of this study can be paraphrased. as follows: to provide a comprehensive and critical examination of the various methods of exchange rate forecasting and to explain why economic theory is still deficient in this important area. The question of whether or not short-term' exchange rates are able to be forecast at all will also be critically examined. This study will attempt to elucidate that while fundamental currency speculation models do provide a certain degree of guidance to currency-traders in their daily prognostications, these models are, in the context of modern capital markets, inadequate. At best, these models will be shown as trackers of long-term exchange rate trends, and not always accurate ones at that. Further, it will be demonstrated that the modern trading floors are characterised (if not defined) by split-second price changes, where the long-term'' can mean a minute, and he who hesitates is lost. It is in this setting that traders must do battle for profit, and where the fundamental models that seem to serve so well in textbooks are anachronisms. The study then shifts its focus to a subset of technical analysis known as charting, the objective being to fill the void which arises due to the fundamental models' inadequacies in the short-term. The charting techniques utilised in this study deviate from their fundamental counterparts in that they attempt to explain future exchangerate trends in terms of past performance. That is, exogenous changes are factored out of the forecasting equation, to give way to a methodology based on trendextrapolation. The performance of these models, especially as they pertain to the medium- and short-term., will then be determined. Finally, in an attempt to supplement the use of charts as a forecasting tool, statistical analysis will be considered. The model utilised in this section will be a rudimentary auto-regressive process. Its simplicity, however, belies its consequence. That is, considering that no ubiquitous statistical model dominates exchange rate theory, it is reasonable to assume that an auto-regressive process, such as the one contributed by this study, will not be subordinate to other, more complex, quantitative offerings. Thus this study attempts to provide the necessary insights in order to perspicaciously 1 It should be noted here that the terms "short-term" and "short run" are interchangeable. For the purposes of consistency, only the former term shall be employed throughout this study. 2 The terms "long-term" and "long run" are also interchangeable. For the purposes of consistency, only the former term shall be employed throughout this study. ascertain the proficiency of statistical analysis as an accurate forecaster of exchange rate fluctuations. All of the models and methods examined in this study adopt a pragmatic acid-test. That is to say, if the predictions made as a result of adherence to the models do not comply accurately and consistently with real findings, then the models themselves should be revised. This revision can be in terms of the time-frame to which the model pertains, the application of the model, or the model itself. It must, however, be stressed that a model whose very raison d'etre lies in its ability to predict exchange rate movements must be able to do so without qualifications or exceptions. The methodology adopted in analysing the models themselves is therefore positive as opposed to normative. Thus, even in the "organised chaos" of the modern exchange rate markets, the application of the models should yield satisfactory results. In other words, despite the unprecedented volumes, speed and volatility of the currencies that are traded in the modern arena, the models themselves should still be able to achieve their purpose - to forecast the extent and direction of changes in the par value of a currency. The next logical question is: what is meant by the "organised chaos", and specifically why should this influence the predictive ability of the fundamental, technical and statistical methods of exchange rate forecasting? The answer to this can be introduced as follows. On an almost daily basis, currency traders move an excess of one trillion dollars throughout the world. Adding to the gravity of this somewhat overwhelming statistic is that most of these are intercomputer transactions occurring instantaneously via inter-bank wire-transfers. In fact, the volume of currency traded is so great that if one were to sum the trading of all the Saudi oil, American wheat, European aircraft and Japanese cars, the monetary result would seem pithy in comparison (Millman, 1995:xxi). It is, however, not only the sheer volumes of currencies traded that characterise the international money markets. It is perhaps more importantly the unanticipated and unparalleled volatility of the markets themselves which provides the greatest quandary for those who conform to 'traditional' methods of exchange rate determination. It is all too common, in fact, for currency prices to change on a minute-to-minute or even second-to-second basis. Exchange rates are thus in a constant state of flux. The significant though infrequent changes of past years have been terminally disposed of. The inception of the microcomputer and the floating exchange rate system currently dominating the greater world economy has irrevocably altered what was considered a flawed order. It is this very metamorphosis which will be examined in detail, specifically how fundamental models have assumed a differing purpose to those used by modern speculators, hedgers and arbitrageurs in their specific fields of application. Thus it will be shown how the changing paradigm of the world economy and consequently the currency trading floors themselves necessitate neoteric predictive powers, that is, the power to forecast currency changes not in terms of years, months or even weeks, but rather in terms of days, minutes and seconds. The object of this thesis will therefore be to show that a definite dichotomy has developed between the exchange rate models espoused in economic textbooks and the techniques upon which the de facto day-to-day buying and selling of currencies depend. The efficacy of this study consequently hinges on one decisive question - is there truly a consistent and precise method of forecasting exchange rates?

M.Com. (Economic Development and Policy Issues) / This research analyses the effect of exchange rate volatility on exports using a sample of nine emerging countries – Argentina, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Malaysia, Poland, South Africa and Thailand – between 1995 and 2010. The study uses panel data models, with a standard exports equation with exports performance determined by exchange rate volatility, the level of exchange rate, demand conditions in major countries as well as terms of trade. Exchange rate volatility is measured by Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) and conventional standard deviation in order to determine if the instrument of volatility used influences the nature of the relationship between exchange rate volatility and exports. The results show that exchange rate volatility has a significant negative effect on the performance of exports regardless of the measure of volatility used. The Pedroni residual cointegration method was used to test for panel cointegration to determine if there is a long-run relationship among the variables, and the test showed that a long-run relationship does exists. Generally, the study concludes that policy mix that will reduce exchange rate volatility (such as managed exchange rate regimes) and relatively competitive exchange rates are essential for emerging markets in order to sustain their exports performance.

M.Comm. / The aim of this study is to discuss, analyse and forecast market volatility. Financial liberalisation and technological innovation have taken place during the past twenty-five years, producing a highly integrated and competitive world financial system in which trillions of dollars are traded every day (Murray, van Norden & Vigfusson, 1996:1). These developments have been positive, but there are concerns about the problems that such unregulated capital flows might pose for the efficient pricing of financial assets and the stability of domestic and international financial markets. Speculation has increased and greater competition, information technology and new securities lead to excessive price volatility. Stocks, bonds and foreign exchange are more sensitive to sudden shocks and trade at prices that appear inconsistent with market fundamentals. It is important to point out the causes of market volatility in order to determine if any precautions can be taken to prevent the enormous impact of market volatility on economic performance. The study could be useful for investors and dealers. It might enable them to forecast volatility and use it as a risk management instrument.

Regression models for de facto currency regime classification are complemented by inferential techniques for tracking the stability of exchange rate regimes. Several structural change methods are adapted to these regressions: tools for assessing the stability of exchange rate regressions in historical data (testing), in incoming data (monitoring) and for determining the breakpoints of shifts in the exchange rate regime (dating). The tools are illustrated by investigating the Chinese exchange rate regime after China gave up on a fixed exchange rate to the US dollar in 2005 and to track the evolution of the Indian exchange rate regime since 1993. / Series: Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics