A unified toolbox for testing, monitoring, and dating structural changes is provided for likelihood-based regression models. In particular, least-squares methods for dating breakpoints are extended to maximum likelihood estimation. The usefulness of all techniques is illustrated by assessing the stability of de facto exchange rate regimes. The toolbox is used for investigating the Chinese exchange rate regime after China gave up on a fixed exchange rate to the US dollar in 2005 and tracking the evolution of the Indian exchange rate regime since 1993. / Series: Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics

Thesis (M.M. (Finance & Investment)--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Wits Business School, 2017 / This paper provides an empirical analysis of the effect of commodity price volatility on the volatility of the South African exchange rate and subsequently the returns on the equity of commodity producing firms listed on the JSE. GARCH and VAR models evaluate South African exchange rate and stock market data between the years 1995 and 2015. Results show that there exists a spill over and bidirectional relationships between the equity returns volatility and the volatility of the exchange rate. Findings also indicated that international commodity price shocks transmitted into the South African Rand. / MT2017

Research paper for the degree of Master of Management in Finance & Investment / With a globalised system, the credit crunch of 2007/2008 rippled through the global economy quickly and turned a global financial crisis into a global economic crisis, vulnerabilities in the economy surfaced when it hit and these still continue to plague South Africa today. According to the World Bank, South Africa’s real GDP growth estimates are 0.8% in 2016/2017 and 1.1% in 2017/2018. Increasing uncertainty in global financial markets and banking systems, sharp declines in commodity prices, subdued global trade, currency pressure, as well as domestic constraints such as a current account deficit, a negative inflation outlook and high levels of unemployment, lead to increased financial stress in South Africa making the country more vulnerable in the event of an adverse scenario. Clearly, being cognizant of determinants of financial stress in South Africa is of paramount importance to policy makers as it allows them to assess potential risks to financial system stability and to consider timely and appropriate counteractions while maintaining a financial system that is resilient to systemic shocks. (South African Reserve Bank Financial Stability Review, 2016) This study aims to construct a financial stress index using Principal Component Analysis to identify key determinants of financial stress in South Africa. Several variables that have been identified in standing literature as being able to capture certain symptoms of financial strain in emerging market economies are estimated then aggregated into an index using the principal component analysis method. The usefulness of the index in identifying past crises is then assessed, moreover its performance is contrasted against the financial stress index constructed by South African Reserve Bank as well as against a South African composite business cycle leading indicator. Finally, the ability of the index to predict economic activity is examined. / MT2017

Master Thesis Paper Submitted to: Wits Business School University of the Witwatersrand Johannesburg, South Africa Master in Finance & Investment, 2015 / Does the volatility of the Renminbi (RMB) have any significant impact on China’s trade? This fundamental question has garnered considerable debate in both the academic and financial circles. The recent “currency wars” amongst larger economies has further fueled the question. Using a number of econometric methods, this research dissects the heart of the effect of the volatility of exchange rate on trade. The research makes crucial findings to provide an affirmative response to the central question posed. In line with most theoretical and empirical studies, the study found that volatility of exchange rate has a positive impact on trade by boosting exports and reducing imports. The appreciation of the RMB has tended to lead to a decrease in China’s global competitiveness, and often suppresses growth. The research provides an important insight on how Chinese monetary authorities can maintain the managed pegged currency system while simultaneously expanding economic growth. Key words: Exchange rate volatility; trade balance; imports; exports; causality; appreciation; depreciation. / MT2016

Research Report: BUSA7167 (MM Finance and Investment Management). Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the (Master of Management in Finance and Investments). Submitted on 06th June 2016 / The findings of the research have implications on the efficiency of the South African exchange rate market, and by extension, the efficiency of similar emerging foreign exchange markets. The study used Ordinary Least Square Approach and Johansen cointegration. Despite their theoretical appeal, and in line with a dozen of related past literature, the findings of the research generally favour the rejection UIP, PPP and IFE. The findings have implications on some regulatory measures that can be undertaken by the financial authority to improve the efficiency of the foreign exchange market. While there have been extensive studies on uncovered interest parity (UIP), purchasing power parity(PPP), and the international Fisher effect(IFE), research has scarcely tested these hypotheses in the context of emerging markets. This study attempts to bridge the existing gap by testing the three related parity condition for South Africa. / MT2016

RESEARCH THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF COMMERCE, LAW & MANAGEMENT IN PARTIAL FULLFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS OF THE MASTER OF MANAGEMENT IN FINANCE & INVESTMENTS DEGREE UNIVERSITY OF THE WITWATERSRAND JOHANNESBURG February, 2016 / In this study we examine the relationship between international oil prices and the South African Rand/US Dollar exchange rate. We also determine the direction of causality between these two variables. We further ascertain the magnitude of the influence of oil prices to the exchange rate compared to other theoretically driven macroeconomic variables. A forecasting exercise is also undertaken to determine whether oil prices contain information about future Rand/Dollar exchange rate. Drawing from the works of Aliyu (2009) and Jin (2008) we use VAR based cointegration technique and vector error correction model (VECM) for the long run and short run analysis respectively. The results show that there is a unidirectional causality running from oil prices to exchange rate and not the other way round. We also find that a 1% permanent increase in oil prices results in 0.17% appreciation of the Rand against the US Dollar; a 1% permanent increase in money aggregates results in 21.3% depreciation of the Rand and a 1% increase in business cycles results in 0.29% depreciation of the Rand in the long run. A 1% increase in inflation and interest rates is found to result in a 0.09% and 0.005% depreciation on the Rand respectively. Our short run analysis indicates that 4.4% of the Rand/Dollar exchange rate disequilibrium can be corrected within a month. Oil prices are found to contain some information about the future Rand/US Dollar exchange rate when the VAR model is used for forecasting. This study has shown there is a causal relationship between oil prices and the strength of the Rand against the Dollar and, therefore, recommends diversification of the economy and more use of green energy. Strategies to reduce capital flight and trade-related capital is also recommended by this study. Key Words: Exchange rate, Oil price, forecasting, vector autoregressive (VAR) model, cointegration, vector error correction model (VECM), causality / MT2016

The main goal of this research is to investigate whether foreign exchange transacting costs are an impediment to intra-regional trading within the Southern African Development Community SADC region. The research question posed has been whether foreign exchange trading costs affect the amount of intra-regional trading within the SADC region. Once the impediments relating to regional trading have been broken down and the cost effect on Small, Medium and Micro Enterprises SMMEs is established, then possible solutions are proposed. The research discovers that the cost of foreign exchange has an impact on intra-regional trading, but it is not the main hindrance to intra-regional trading in the SADC. It also discovers that the settlement risk of a foreign exchange transaction in the region has not yet been addressed to the same or similar extent as in the developed world. The extent of trading partners’ currency volatility is a function of the amount of trade between those trading partners. The SADC countries’ currency pairs volatility can be reduced by increased trade. Having said that, businesses need to plan and high levels of volatility tend to be disruptive. This is now the area where it is suggested that central banks within the region should actively participate in foreign exchange markets. Central banks should be the facilitator or price-maker of last resort in cases of lack of liquidity of local or foreign currencies. The research suggests that they should play a role in ensuring or reducing the amount of rapid currency spikes that lead to disorderly markets. The research also discovers that SMMEs are a core part of the economies of developing countries, and therefore a serious look at this sector of the economy is suggested. Mobile communication networks, like cell phones, are the current accessible and preferred communications tool among the geographical regions and areas that are hard to reach. Cell phones have also doubled as a form of payment among rural, African countries. The research suggests leeching on the current cell phone iii banking platforms to enable better foreign exchange reach to SMMEs and the general public. It suggests interlinking relationships between banks and cell phone networks, where the cell phone companies facilitate the accessibility and the banks’ liquidity. The report takes cognisance of the fact that, inasmuch as the countries in SADC are geographically close to each other, their political, economic and social dynamics can be wildly different. This would therefore mean that the proposed solutions are not necessarily a one-size-fits-all, but could be adjusted and tweaked to suit individual country dynamics.

by Chiu Man-cheong and Lo Kin-chung. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1994. / Includes bibliographical references (leave 1 (4th gp.)). / ABSTRACT --- p.iii / TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.iv / ACKNOWLEDGEMENT --- p.vi / Chapter / Chapter I. --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter II. --- LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.4 / Variations --- p.7 / Ratio Analysis --- p.13 / Applications on Real Markets --- p.14 / Chapter III. --- METHODOLOGY --- p.16 / Wave Counting --- p.20 / Fibonacci Targets --- p.22 / Data Source --- p.23 / A Note on Notations --- p.23 / Chapter IV. --- RATIO ANALYSIS --- p.25 / Fibonacci Relationships --- p.25 / Results of Ratio Analysis --- p.28 / Wave 2 --- p.29 / Wave 3 --- p.30 / Wave 4 --- p.30 / Wave 5 --- p.31 / Summary of Results / Chapter V. --- FORMULATION OF TRADE PLANS AND RESULTS OF SIMULATED TRADING --- p.32 / Formulation of Trade Plans --- p.33 / Trade Plan No. 1 --- p.35 / Pre-conditions of Trade --- p.35 / Trade Initiation --- p.36 / Cut-loss Mechanism --- p.38 / Profit Taking --- p.39 / Trade Plan No. 2 --- p.41 / Pre-conditions of Trade --- p.42 / Trade Initiation --- p.42 / Cut-loss Mechanism --- p.43 / Profit Taking Point --- p.44 / Trade Opportunities Scan --- p.46 / Trade Case 1 --- p.52 / Pre-conditions --- p.52 / Trade Initiation --- p.52 / Profit-taking/Cut-loss --- p.53 / Trade Case 2 --- p.54 / Pre-conditions --- p.54 / Trade Initiation --- p.55 / Profit-taking/Cut-loss --- p.56 / Trade Case 5 --- p.57 / Pre-conditions --- p.57 / Trade Initiation --- p.58 / Profit-taking/Cut-loss --- p.58 / Results of Simulated Trade --- p.59 / Discussions on Simulated Trading --- p.62 / Chapter VI. --- WAVE ANALYSIS AND MARKET PERSPECTIVES --- p.65 / Analysis of the Broadest Swing --- p.66 / Phase 1 Price Movement --- p.67 / Phase 2 Price Movement --- p.70 / Future Market Perspectives --- p.78 / Chapter VII. --- DISCUSSIONS --- p.82 / Experience in Wave Counting --- p.82 / Limitations of Elliott Wave --- p.85 / Practical Issues --- p.86 / Chapter VIII. --- CONCLUSIONS --- p.92 / APPENDICES --- p.A-l / Chapter 1. --- RESULTS OF RATIO ANALYSIS --- p.A-2 / Chapter 2. --- DETAILS OF SIMULATED TRADING --- p.A-3 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.B-l

Zhang Haiyan. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2001. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 48-50). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2 --- Literature Review --- p.6 / Chapter 2.1 --- An Introduction to the Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) and previous works on UIP --- p.6 / Chapter 2.2 --- Previous empirical works applying Band Spectrum Regression(BSR) --- p.15 / Chapter 3 --- Basic Band Spectral Regression (BSR) Techniques --- p.20 / Chapter 3.1 --- BSR Based on the complex Fourier transform --- p.20 / Chapter 3.2 --- BSR based on the real-valued Fourier transform --- p.24 / Chapter 3.3 --- Testing for parameter stability in the frequency domain --- p.26 / Chapter 4 --- Data and Standard Time Series Analysis in the Time Domain --- p.29 / Chapter 5 --- Analyze the UIP relation in the frequency domain --- p.33 / Chapter 5.1 --- An overview of the UIP relation across frequency --- p.33 / Chapter 5.2 --- Testing parameter stability across different time horizons --- p.37 / Chapter 6 --- Test of UIP with the forward premium --- p.42 / Chapter 7 --- Conclusion --- p.45

by Zhi-Bin Lai. / Thesis submitted in: December 1998. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1999. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 111-116). / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- ICA Model --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- ICA Algorithms --- p.3 / Chapter 1.3 --- Foreign Exchange Rate Scheme --- p.9 / Chapter 1.4 --- Problem Motivation --- p.10 / Chapter 1.5 --- Main Contribution of the Thesis --- p.10 / Chapter 1.6 --- Other Contribution of the Thesis --- p.11 / Chapter 1.7 --- Organization of the Thesis --- p.11 / Chapter 2 --- Heuristic Dominant ICs Sorting --- p.13 / Chapter 2.1 --- L1 Norm Sorting --- p.13 / Chapter 2.2 --- Lp Norm (L3 Norm) Sorting --- p.14 / Chapter 2.3 --- Problem Motivation --- p.15 / Chapter 2.4 --- Determination of Dominant ICs --- p.15 / Chapter 2.5 --- ICA in Foreign Exchange Rate Markets --- p.16 / Chapter 2.6 --- Comparison of Two Heuristic Methods --- p.16 / Chapter 2.6.1 --- Experiment 1: US Dollar vs Swiss Franc --- p.18 / Chapter 2.6.2 --- Experiment 2: US Dollar vs Australian Dollar --- p.21 / Chapter 2.6.3 --- Experiment 3: US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar --- p.24 / Chapter 2.6.4 --- Experiment 4: US Dollar vs French Franc --- p.27 / Chapter 3 --- Forward Selection under MSE Measurement --- p.30 / Chapter 3.1 --- Order-Sorting Criterion --- p.30 / Chapter 3.2 --- Order Sorting Approaches --- p.30 / Chapter 3.3 --- Forward Selection Approach --- p.31 / Chapter 3.4 --- Comparison of Three Dominant ICs Sorting Methods --- p.32 / Chapter 3.4.1 --- Experiment 1: US Dollar vs Swiss Franc --- p.33 / Chapter 3.4.2 --- Experiment 2: US Dollar vs Australian Dollar --- p.37 / Chapter 3.4.3 --- Experiment 3: US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar --- p.41 / Chapter 3.4.4 --- Experiment 4: US Dollar vs French Franc --- p.45 / Chapter 4 --- Backward Elimination Tendency Error --- p.49 / Chapter 4.1 --- Tendency Error Scheme --- p.49 / Chapter 4.2 --- Order-Sorting Criterion --- p.50 / Chapter 4.3 --- Order Sorting Approaches --- p.50 / Chapter 4.4 --- Backward Elimination Tendency Error Approach --- p.51 / Chapter 4.5 --- Determination of Dominant ICs --- p.52 / Chapter 4.6 --- Comparison Between Three Approaches --- p.53 / Chapter 4.6.1 --- Experiment Results on USD-SWF Return --- p.53 / Chapter 4.6.2 --- Experiment Results on USD-AUD Return --- p.57 / Chapter 4.6.3 --- Experiment Results on USD-CAD Return --- p.61 / Chapter 4.6.4 --- Experiment Results on USD-FRN Return --- p.65 / Chapter 5 --- Other Analysis of ICA in Foreign Exchange Rate Markets --- p.69 / Chapter 5.1 --- Variance Characteristics of ICs and PCs --- p.69 / Chapter 5.2 --- Reconstruction Ability between PCA and ICA --- p.70 / Chapter 5.3 --- Properties of Independent Components --- p.70 / Chapter 5.4 --- Autocorrelation --- p.73 / Chapter 5.5 --- Rescaled Analysis --- p.73 / Chapter 6 --- Conclusion and Further Work - --- p.78 / Chapter 6.1 --- Conclusion --- p.78 / Chapter 6.2 --- Further Work --- p.79 / Chapter A --- Fast Implement of LPM Algorithm --- p.80 / Chapter A.1 --- Review of Selecting Subsets from Regression Variables --- p.80 / Chapter A.2 --- Unconstrained Gradient Based Optimization Methods Survey --- p.85 / Chapter A.3 --- Characteristics of the Original LPM Algorithm --- p.88 / Chapter A.4 --- Constrained Learning Rate Adaptation Method --- p.89 / Chapter A.5 --- Gradient Descent with Momentum Method --- p.98