Thesis (MTech (Public Management))--Cape Peninsula University of Technology, 2011 / The study aims to assess how people in South Africa perceive the impact of the global financial crisis on the South African economy in the context of unemployment, poverty, crime, the mining, industrial, manufacturing and agricultural sectors, household expenditure, capital inflows, capital flows, capital outflow, electricity prices, education funding, health funding, remittances, pension funding, and financial institutions. From 2008 to 2010 the South African economy entered into recession because of the global financial crisis which was caused by the collapse of the United States’ housing market. A survey questionnaire which aimed to measure the perceptions of the impact of the global financial crisis on the South African economy was administrated to 300 randomly selected students and staff at two universities. A number of people were selected from the general public in Cape Town and at selected survey areas: two universities and five townships in Cape Town (Mandela Park, Hout Bay Harbour, Guguletu, Nyanga and Khayelitsha). The research followed the procedure of random sampling with students and staff at two universities in Cape Town and they were selected by the researcher and fieldworkers on an arbitrary basis. The employed field workers selected persons from the townships on the same basis. Results from the survey showed that a majority of respondents from universities and non-university subjects (170) agreed that the global financial crisis has impacted negatively on the South African economy in the context of unemployment, poverty, crime, the mining, industrial, manufacturing and agricultural sectors, capital inflows, capital flows, electricity prices, education funding, health funding, pension funding, and financial institutions. The survey questionnaire was designed according to the sample, which comprises staff and students at two universities in Cape Town, as well as, non-university subjects. This meant that many respondents included university staff and students because they are educated and have more knowledge and understanding than non-university subjects. This research found that non-university respondents were more unwilling to participate. The fieldworkers were also challenged to assess the perceptions of a large number of these respondents owing to a lack of language and cognitive skills. The research used two fieldworkers to assess the perceptions of university respondents concerning the impact of the global financial crisis on the South African economy. The research also used 14 fieldworkers to assess the perceptions of non-university respondents concerning the impact of the crisis on the South African economy. The cost of the fieldworkers’ remuneration was justified as the assessment process would have been extremely difficult for the researcher to have undertaken alone.

M. Tech. Business Administration / Financial distress and bankruptcy is one of the most significant threats to the going concern of many businesses, irrespective of their size and nature of operations. Research in corporate financial distress and corporate failure prediction dates back to the mid-sixties, and the bulk of the studies have been conducted within the context of highly developed market economies. Very little research has been conducted within the context of emerging markets, and using small and medium-sized firms. This therefore encouraged the author of this research report to conduct a study, applying a model specifically developed for emerging economies to predict financial distress of small and medium-sized South African listed firms. The main purpose of this study is to examine whether a model designed for financial distress prediction and credit scoring in emerging markets is reliable, and can be accurately applied in South Africa.

Research paper for the degree of Master of Management in Finance & Investment / With a globalised system, the credit crunch of 2007/2008 rippled through the global economy quickly and turned a global financial crisis into a global economic crisis, vulnerabilities in the economy surfaced when it hit and these still continue to plague South Africa today. According to the World Bank, South Africa’s real GDP growth estimates are 0.8% in 2016/2017 and 1.1% in 2017/2018. Increasing uncertainty in global financial markets and banking systems, sharp declines in commodity prices, subdued global trade, currency pressure, as well as domestic constraints such as a current account deficit, a negative inflation outlook and high levels of unemployment, lead to increased financial stress in South Africa making the country more vulnerable in the event of an adverse scenario. Clearly, being cognizant of determinants of financial stress in South Africa is of paramount importance to policy makers as it allows them to assess potential risks to financial system stability and to consider timely and appropriate counteractions while maintaining a financial system that is resilient to systemic shocks. (South African Reserve Bank Financial Stability Review, 2016) This study aims to construct a financial stress index using Principal Component Analysis to identify key determinants of financial stress in South Africa. Several variables that have been identified in standing literature as being able to capture certain symptoms of financial strain in emerging market economies are estimated then aggregated into an index using the principal component analysis method. The usefulness of the index in identifying past crises is then assessed, moreover its performance is contrasted against the financial stress index constructed by South African Reserve Bank as well as against a South African composite business cycle leading indicator. Finally, the ability of the index to predict economic activity is examined. / MT2017

This paper examines bubbles on the JSE All Share Index as well as the critical time of the stock market crash from 2/01/ 2004 – 27/03/2014. The underlying hypothesis define bubbles as extreme and begin as a group of small events which grow in a super exponential form explained by a log periodic power law model (LPPL model). The hypothesis is based on the assumption of investors’ herding behavior, where investors collude by making investment decision correlated with their counterparties. The paper implements a Savitzky Golary Algorithm to detect peaks and calculate the critical time of the crash from the peaks. An Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method is used to determine both the value of stock market price index at the critical time and the increase in the stock market price index over the time before the crash. The remaining parameters of the LPPL model are estimated using a Maximum Likelihood Estimation method. On the empirical results; 68 peaks were detected, and the LPPL model at the critical crash time is estimated 34736.586. Five bubbles are detected; the 15/8/2005 bubble, 28/5/2013 bubble, 23/8/2013 bubble, 5/11/2013, and 1/20/2014.

The study sought to evaluate debt management policy implementation towards revenue management in government leased properties of the Eastern Cape Provincial Treasury at the Transkei Development and Reserve Fund. Secondly, the study aimed at developing a tool for assisting policy-makers and officials involved in debt management and revenue collection. In order to address the research problem, a case study involving randomly selected 27 employees from the Eastern Cape Provincial Treasury and housing ward committee members was adopted. Self-administered questionnaires and interviews were the two data collection techniques utilised. All participants were involved in the study during tea and lunch breaks at the workplace; this constituted the employees’ natural environment. Both quantitative and qualitative designs were utilised in analysing data. Descriptive statistical analysis using excel was utilised to summarise the responses, analyse the demographic profiles of participants and their responses. The results were thus presented in the form of bar charts. Responses which could not be analysed using statistics were analysed qualitatively thus the advantages inherent in the two approaches were exploited. The evidence from the study suggests that government operational employees are aware of their roles and responsibilities as they relate to debt management and debt collection policy. The development of debt management policy promotes rental collection, improve property profitability and ensure the maintenance is in place to improve attractiveness of the government properties.

The view of on-site school support for curriculum delivery is shared by most countries and its effects have been felt by schools. There is fear that the Austerity Measures will negate the outcomes of the action taken by the teams that visit the schools. The reviewed literature is more biased towards the Austerity Measures in the whole government sector rather than in a department or an institution like the Education District in Idutywa. Even though the effects of Austerity Measures have been researched all over the world based on a specific country, there is deficiency of such literature done in the institution like the department of Education Districts. The researcher intends contributing to the filling of this gap by this study. The researcher therefore carried out a focused study of the effect of Department’s Austerity Measures on on-site school curriculum support in Idutywa Education District. It is also imperative to know how the teachers are affected by these departmental Austerity Measures, hence the interviews were carried out with the school personnel in addition to the District Professional staff. The District is characterised by poor performance in both Annual National Assessment (ANA) and the final National Senior Certificate results. The findings revealed that the implementation of AM have contributed to, amongst other things, the following issues: The inadequate on-site school support for curriculum delivery; The shortage of resources that includes teachers and vehicles; and ultimately the learner underperformance The researcher expect that the recommendation made will be embraced and be factored through, during the planning process of the Eastern Cape Department of Basic Education in order to improve learner performance.

The identification of financial stress, and an understanding of financial contagion on a global scale, is of critical importance to a South African economy that is becoming increasingly integrated into the global economy. The last decade has been characterised by periods of high economic growth, but also periods of significant financial instability culminating in global economic crises. This study examines the extent to which the South African financial system is exposed to distress abroad by identifying and measuring the co-movement of financial stress originating from within and outside South Africa. The study can be separated into two sections: the identification of financial stress and the measurement of financial contagion. Using monthly data for the period 2000 to 2012, three indices were constructed for the emerging markets, advanced economies and South Africa using varianceequal weighting. The indices were tested for contagion using the Johansen and Jesulius (1990) multivariate cointegration approach supplemented with basic OLS architecture and Impulse Response analysis. The results indicate the three constructed indices were highly accurate at identifying the intensity and timing of financial stress over the three regions respectively. It was found that the South African financial sector is highly susceptible to financial stress originating from advanced economies. The results obtained for financial stress emanating from emerging markets were not as conclusive and found to be insignificant. Overall, it is clear that the methods employed to identify financial stress are highly accurate and that South Africa is highly susceptible to financial stress originating from abroad. It is clear that advanced economies have a greater ability to affect financial stress in South Africa via contagion. It must be noted that this does not conclude that South Africa is not affected by emerging market crises, but that these crises tend to affect South Africa through advanced economy channels as defined within this thesis.

This thesis used the events of the 2007 financial crisis as a means of being able to add to the research already done on South African unit trusts. The objective was to study the risk-adjusted performance of South African general equity unit trusts against the market during the period between 2005 and 2014. This period took into account the bull market preceding the financial crisis, the market crash of 2007 and the subsequent market recovery that followed. Data was obtained online through the I-Net BFA data base and included 161 general equity unit trusts that contained a full data set. In addition to the general equity unit trusts, the Satrix40 was studied to compare a passive unit trust against those that are actively managed. The 10 year Government bond was also used as a risk-free rate to add to the comparisons of performance results. The Sharpe, Treynor and Jensen measures were applied to the data with the results adding more support to the opinions that markets are fairly efficient and active investment strategies are being challenged by consistently well performing passive investments. Throughout the duration of the study, taking into account the varying economic cycles, the Satrix40 passive investment showed the best average overall return on simple return calculations as well as during the risk-adjusted measurements. In support of active investment management, unit trusts showed their best relative performance figures during the period of the financial crisis. This suggested that active financial managers were able to make the active calls necessary to weather the storm of the financial crisis. While the study did have its limitations, the results it produced are intended to offer investors further knowledge in enabling them to make more educated investment decisions in the future.

This thesis focuses on monetary policy transmission and particularly seeks to examine the impact of credit and exchange rate channels of monetary policy transmission in the South African economy. South Africa's monetary policy has gone through several changes over the past thirty years. In this respect, there is a need for robust empirical evidence on the effects of these channels on inflation and output. The thesis employs a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to identify monetary transmission in South Africa for the period 1994:q4 - 2008:q2. The form of the SVAR used in this thesis is based on the fact that South Africa is a small open economy, which means that external shocks are an important driver of domestic activity. The impulse responses and variance decomposition results show that the repo rate, credit and exchange rate play a role in terms of their impact on inflation and output. The dynamic responses to the identified monetary policy shock are consistent with standard theory and highlight the importance of the interest rate channel. A shock to the interest rate, increasing it by one standard deviation, results in a persistent fall in credit. The response of output is immediate as it falls and bottoms out within the second year. Inflation shows a lagged response, it is positive within the first year as the exchange rate depreciates but in subsequent quarters inflation responds negatively as expected. Inflation falls and reaches a minimum by approximately eight quarters then moves towards baseline. The exchange rate shows delayed appreciation. The shock to the repo interest rate leads to an immediate depreciation of the exchange rate in the first two quarters as output declines, followed by an appreciation in the third and sixth quarter. Due to larger error bounds the impact of the repo rate on the exchange rate could be less effective within the first two years. The impulse responses suggest that monetary policy plays an effective role in stabilising the economy in response to a credit shock, notwithstanding large standard error bounds. Hence, the monetary authority reacts by increasing the repo rate as a result of inflation. The impact of credit on output is positive but is offset to some extent by the rising repo rate. In response to the rand appreciation, the monetary authority reduces the repo rate significantly during the first year with the maximum impact in the second year and then returns to baseline thereafter. Therefore the monetary authority reduces the repo rate, probably to stabilise falling inflation. The result shows that inflation falls as a result of the rand appreciation. A shock to the exchange rate causes a rise in output, though small in magnitude, which is persistent but reaches baseline at the end of the period. This result could reflect the effects of the resultant fall in the repo rate and a persistent rise in credit over the whole period, which tends to increase output. The exchange rate shows an obvious and stronger immediate impact on inflation compared to credit impact on inflation. However, the credit shock has an obvious and stronger impact on output compared to an exchange rate impact on output. However, the large standard error bounds may imply that credit and exchange rate channels are not as effective in the short run. It is important to note that the results are based on the SVAR model estimated with percentage growth rate of the variables. The variance decomposition result is in line with the impulse responses and shows that the exchange rate and credit channels could be important transmission channels in South Africa over the chosen sample period. The exchange rate and credit shocks show a stronger effect on inflation than on output, looking at both the impulse responses and variance decomposition results. The reaction of the repo interest rate to the credit and exchange rate shocks comes out as expected. The repo rate increases as a result of an increase in the credit and falls as a result of the currency appreciation.

Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2008. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: To date, there has been significant research completed on the topic of corporate financial distress. Two pioneering researchers in the field of predicting financial distress was Beaver in 1966 and Altman in 1968. More recent research, based on companies listed on the JSE has been that of Steyn-Bruwer and Hamman (2006). This project, based on the latter authors’ work, has been formulated with one main research objective and two subordinate research objectives. The main research objective is to prove that different modelling techniques provide better prediction accuracies than others. The two subordinate research objectives are firstly to prove that there is a difference in the overall predictive accuracy if the data (provided by Steyn-Bruwer and Hamman) is subdivided according to “year before failure” and not according to economic period and secondly to prove that more optimised, independent variables would provide a better overall predictive accuracy. This research report summarises several significant papers on the topic; and draws the conclusion that research on financial distress is fragmented with very little consensus on any of the major definitions, assumptions and findings. In order to contextualise these differences; this research report defines and discusses corporate financial distress and considers the major issues associated with the field of research. An interesting observation from the literature survey was the fact that existing literature does not readily take consideration of the number of Type I and Type II errors made. As such, this research report introduces a novel concept (not seen in other research) called the “Normalised Cost of Failure” (NCF) which takes cognisance of the fact that a Type I error typically costs 20 to 38 times that of a Type II error. In order to satisfy the main research objective several different modelling techniques were selected based on their popularity in the literature surveyed. They are: Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Recursive Partitioning (RP), Logit Analysis (LA) and Neural Networks (NN). A summary of each of the different techniques is provided in Chapter 4 of this research report. The research by Steyn-Bruwer and Hamman forms the departure point for this research and their work is summarised in Chapter 5 of this report. Chapters 6, 7 and 8 use the data from Steyn-Bruwer and Hamman along with the above mentioned modelling techniques to verify the main and subordinate objectives. In terms of the main research objective, the results of these chapters show that the different analysis techniques definitely produce different predictive accuracies. Here, the MDA and RP techniques correctly predict the most “failed” companies; and consequently have the lowest NCF. This research report also shows that LA and NN provide the best overall predictive accuracy. In terms of the first subordinate research objective; this research shows that using the year before failure rather than the economic period as a subdivision provides superior predictive accuracy. With regard to the second subordinate research objective: there is no difference in the predictive accuracies if the independent variables are further optimised. These results were disappointing and consequently disprove the second subordinate objective that widening the number of input variables actually improves the predictive accuracy. In fact, the results indicate that the information contained in the independent variables seems to saturate after the most important (key predictor) independent variables have been included in the model. It is important to take cognisance of the fact that each predictive technique has its own strength and weakness. It is proposed by the author that the strengths and weaknesses of these predictive techniques be combined to provide a better overall predictive methodology. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Heelwat betekenisvolle navorsing oor die onderwerp van maatskappye se finansiële verknorsing is tot op hede voltooi. Twee baanbreker-navorsers op die gebied van vooruitskatting van finansiële verknorsing was Beaver in 1966 en Altman in 1968. Meer onlangse navorsing, gebaseer op maatskappye wat op die JSE genoteer is, was dié van Steyn-Bruwer en Hamman (2006). Hierdie navorsingsverslag, gebaseer op die voorgenoemde outeurs se werk, is geformuleer met een hoofnavorsingsdoelwit en twee ondergeskikte navorsingsdoelwitte. Die hoofnavorsingsdoelwit is om te bewys dat verskillende modelleringstegnieke beter voorspellingsakkuraatheid as andere het. Die twee ondergeskikte navorsingsdoelwitte is, eerstens, dat daar ʼn verskil is in die oorhoofse voorspellingsakkuraatheid as die data (verskaf deur Steyn-Bruwer en Hamman) onderverdeel word volgens die “jaar voor mislukking” eerder as volgens die ekonomiese tydperk; en tweedens, om te bewys dat meer geoptimiseerde, onafhanklike veranderlikes kan lei tot ʼn beter oorhoofse voorspellingsakkuraatheid. Ten einde hierdie verskille te konseptualiseer, het hierdie navorsingsverslag finansiële mislukkings van maatskappye bespreek en gedefinieer en aandag geskenk aan die belangrikste aspekte geassosieer met die navorsingsveld. ʼn Interessante waarneming uit die literatuurstudie was die feit dat die huidige literatuur selde indien enige, oorweging skenk aan die aantal Tipe I- en Tipe II-foute wat gemaak word. As sulks het hierdie navorsingsprojek ʼn nuwe begrip (nog nie in ander navorsing gesien nie) ontwikkel, wat beskryf word as die “Genormaliseerde Kostefaktor”; wat die feit dat ʼn Tipe I-fout tipies 20 tot 38 maal die koste van ʼn Tipe II-fout beloop, in ag neem. Ten einde te voldoen aan die hoofnavorsingsdoelwit is verskillende modelleringstegnieke wat op grond van hul gewildheid in die literatuur voorgekom het, gekies. Hulle is: Meervoudige Diskriminantanalise (MDA), Herhalende Verdeling (RP), Logit-Analise (LA) en Neurale Netwerke (NN). ʼn Opsomming van elk van hierdie verskillende tegnieke word in Hoofstuk 4 van hierdie navorsingsverslag verskaf. Die navorsing wat deur Steyn-Bruwer en Hamman gedoen is, vorm die vertrekpunt van hierdie navorsing en hulle werk is gevolglik in Hoofstuk 5 van hierdie verslag opgesom. Hoofstukke 6, 7 en 8 gebruik die data van Steyn-Bruwer en Hamman tesame met die bovermelde modelleringstegnieke ten einde die hoof- en ondergeskikte doelwitte te bewys. In terme van die hoofnavorsingsdoelwit, het die resultate van hierdie hoofstukke getoon dat die verskillende analitiese tegnieke definitief verskillende voorspellingsakkuraatheid oplewer. Hier het die MDA- en RP-tegnieke die grootste aantal mislukte maatskappye korrek voorspel, en gevolglik die laagste Genormaliseerde Kostefaktor gehad. Die navorsingsverslag toon ook dat LA en NN die beste oorhoofse akkuraatheid van voorspelling het. In terme van die eerste ondergeskikte navorsingsprobleem het hierdie navorsing getoon dat, om die jaar voor mislukking te gebruik as onderverdeling, eerder as die ekonomiese tydperk, beter voorspellingsakkuraatheid het. Wat die tweede ondergeskikte navorsingsdoelwit betref, is daar bevind dat daar geen verskille in die voorspellingsakkuraatheid bestaan as die individuele veranderlikes verder geoptimaliseer word nie. Hierdie resultate was teleurstellend en het gevolglik die tweede ondergeskikte probleem, naamlik dat as die aantal inset-veranderlikes sou vergroot word, dit die vooruitskattingsakkuraatheid behoort te kan verhoog, verkeerd bewys. Tewens, die resultate het getoon dat die inligting soos vervat in die onafhanklike veranderlikes klaarblyklik versadiging bereik nadat die belangrikste (hoof-vooruitskatter) onafhanklike veranderlikes in die model opgeneem is. Dit is belangrik om kennis te neem van die feit dat elke vooruitskattingstegniek sy eie sterk en swak punte het. Die skrywer stel dus voor dat hierdie sterk- en swakpunte gekombineerd gebruik word om ʼn beter oorhoofse vooruitskattingsmetodologie daar te stel.