Thesis (Ph. D.)--Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, 1992. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 169-176).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Toronto, 1994. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 205-209).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Harvard University, 1992. / Includes bibliographical references.

This dissertation investigates the effects of exchange rate devaluation on non-mining exports in Botswana over the period 1984-2012 and the exchange rate pass-through effect to consumer prices. The economy of Botswana is significantly dependent on mineral exports, particularly the diamond. The dominance and over-reliance on diamond exports in the economy has led to low levels of economic diversification. Bank of Botswana has over the years devalued the pula, in attempt to stimulate growth of non-mining export industries and to enhance non-mining export competitiveness. However, raising export competitiveness this way may be inflationary and have no significant effect on non-mining exports. The study investigates the existence of cointegration between real effective exchange rate and the non-mining exports using the Johansen method of cointegration. The vector error correction model is used, to examine the short-run dynamics of the model. The results suggest that a positive long-run relationship exists between real effective exchange rate and Botswana’s non-mining exports. The results of the exchange rate pass-through suggest that nominal exchange rate has a short term relationship with consumer prices in Botswana. However this relationship does not hold over the long run.

The purpose of this study is to establish the impact of real exchange rate on exports in South Africa. In conducting the empirical test, the Vector Error Correction Model and annual time series data between 1973 and 2014 has been utilised. In the model, exports are the dependent variable and the real effective exchange rates, gross domestic product, mining, agricultural, foreign direct investments, and merchandise export prices are explanatory variables. A significant inverse relationship between real effective exchange rates and exports was confirmed in line with economic theory. Except for the Gross Domestic Product which exhibited a positive relationship, all other explanatory variables displayed an inverse relationship with exports. All other variables exhibited a significant impact except for Foreign Direct Investments. Based on the findings of this study, firm and practical policy recommendations are made including a moderated adjustment of monetary and fiscal policy to ensure competitiveness on the supply side.

This study looks at the development of bond markets in emerging economies and focuses on the development of the Bond Exchange of South Africa (BESA). It explores the history, structure, performance and key issues related to the development of this market within the broader context of domestic, regional and global bond market development. BESA's experience provides valuable lessons for other emerging market economies also seeking to build bond markets. The sophistication of the local bond market is not enough to make it appealing to foreign borrowers. Market development demands an enabling market infrastructure and a background of macroeconomic stability, diversified market participants, deregulation of capital flows and an appropriate regulatory and supervisory environment.

Doctorat en sciences sociales, politiques et économiques / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

The theoretical literature assumes that real variables affect the real exchange rate only through the relative price of nontraded goods. In Chapter 2. I decompose the real Canada-US exchange rate into the relative prices of traded goods and nontraded goods and analyze how real shocks affect these two relative prices. I find that shocks to productivity and commodity prices affect the real exchange rate almost entirely through the relative price of traded goods. This evidence calls for explicit modeling of the transmission mechanism from real shocks to the real exchange rate through the relative price of traded goods. In Chapter 3. I develop a model that allows the relative price of traded goods to play a role in the transmission mechanism. The model is a generalization of the basic Balassa-Samuelson model that incorporates terms-of-trade and productivity shocks in a unified framework. The generalization is parsimonious since it maintains the law of one price for each traded good. However, the model does not have the law of one price for the composite traded good. This is necessary to allow traded goods to act as a channel in the transmission mechanism. The model implies that domestic productivity shocks depreciate the relative price of tradables, while shocks to world commodity prices appreciate it. The empirical analysis provides some support for the first prediction, but rejects the second prediction. In Chapter 4. I analyze whether the depreciation of the real Canada-US exchange rate can be a driving force behind the widening of the Canada-US productivity gap in manufacturing since the 1980s. I focus on the factor cost hypothesis. that states that a real exchange rate depreciation can make capital relatively more expensive than labour, causing manufacturing firms to adopt more labour intensive technologies. Using a Vector Error Correction Model. I find that a real depreciation of the Canadian dollar reduces the relative Canada-US capital-labour ratio and labour productivity in manufacturing in accordance with the hypothesis. However. the contribution of this channel in explaining movements of the relative productivity in manufacturing is only about ten per cent at a five year horizon.

No description available.

Real exchange rates have important effects on production, employment and trade, so it is crucial to understand the factors responsible for their variations. This study analyses the main determinants of the real exchange rate and the dynamic adjustment of the real exchange rate following shocks to those determinants, using quarterly South African data covering the period 1975 to 2005. It begins with a review of literature on the determinants of the real exchange rate and provides an updated background on the exchange rate system in South Africa. An empirical model linking the real exchange rate to its theoretical determinants is then specified. In contrast to previous analyses, this study augments the cointegration and vector autoregression (VAR) analysis with impulse response and variance decomposition analyses to provide robust long run effects and short run dynamic effects on the real exchange rate. The variables that have been found to have a long run relationship with the real exchange rate include the terms of trade, real interest rate differential, domestic credit, openness and technological progress. The estimate of the speed of adjustment coefficient found in this study indicates that about a third of the variation in the real exchange rate from its equilibrium level is corrected within a quarter. The impulse response functions broadly corroborate the theoretical predictions, but only the terms of trade, domestic credit and openness have a significant impact on the real exchange rate in the short run. However, only shocks to the terms of trade and domestic credit have persistent effects on the real exchange rate. Results from the variance decompositions are largely similar to those from the impulse response analysis. The terms of trade, domestic credit and openness are the only variables found to significantly explain the variation in the real exchange rate. The most interesting result that emerged from this analysis and is supported by previous research is that among other determinants, the terms of trade explain the largest proportion of the variation in the real exchange. On balance, the evidence therefore suggests that real exchange rate fluctuations are predominantly equilibrium responses to real and monetary shocks rather than fiscal policy shocks.