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The purpose of this study was to determine if control charts are an effective tool to identify trends in forest growth and yield model accuracy. Accurate forest growth and yield models are important for projecting future forest composition. However, environmental factors have the potential to make forest growth models created from historic data inaccurate. Control charts in this study determine if forest growth predictions fall within confidence limits established for historic growth at a number of points in time. Two data sets were used in this study: the first was a Continuous Forest Inventory (CFI) from three tracts at the University of Tennessee Cumberland Research Station and the second data set was Forest Inventory and Analysis data collected by the U.S. Forest Service. The CFI plots represented a stand level data set measured every 5 years from 1962-1977 and revisited for a re-measurement in 2009. The FIA plots were a regional data with subsets of plots measured annually from 1999-2008. The FIA data set was limited to plots of the oak/hickory forest type from Tennessee, Alabama, and Georgia. Two forest growth and yield models were used to predict growth: (1) WinYield and (2) Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS). The two different data sets were used with both FVS and WinYield to evaluate control charts using different models ad at different spatial and temporal scales. The data sets were also subset by site index, stand age, stocking percent, aspect, and species composition to determine if control charts could identify changes in model accuracy for forests subjected to different growing conditions. The CFI and FIA data had short growth predictions and control charts indicated that there were no trends affecting accuracy. The CFI data also had a long growth prediction of 32 years and the control charts found that the predictions using WinYield and FVS were inaccurate, indicating that there may be a trend causing inaccuracy in the model.

<p>In the Central Hardwood Region, the quantity and quality of hardwood timber critically depend on forest management decisions made by private landowners, since they hold the largest share of woodlands, some of which are plantations. These plantations are in a unique and critical position to provide much-needed hardwood resources. However, there is a lack of research and tools enabling rigorous assessments of profitability of long-term investments in hardwood plantations. Partially due to this, the majority of these privately held plantations remain unmanaged.</p> <p>This study aims at providing scientific evidence and tools to help promote forest management on hardwood plantations held by private landowners. To this end, I demonstrate in Chapter 1 an economic-modeling approach that minimizes establishment costs while ensuring free-to-grow status by year 5, and crown closure by year 10. Using temperate hardwoods such as black walnut and red oak as focal species, I find a black walnut plantation can attain crown closure in year six at the lowest cost ($4,540/ha) with 6 feet x 7 feet spacing, herbicide application for the first year, and fencing. For red oak, the minimum-cost option ($5,371/ ha) which achieves crown closure in year 10 requires a planting density of 6 feet x 7 feet, herbicide application for the first three years, and fencing. Modelling uncertainty in growth and mortality in a stochastic counterpart shifts optimal solutions to denser plantings for black walnut; planting more trees is, thus, risk mitigative. Based upon these research outcomes, I identify the tradeoffs between efficacy of treatments towards establishment success viz a viz their relative costs which serve as a solid foundation for the assessment of subsequent management strategies.</p> <p>Next, in chapter 2, I first calibrate growth, yield, and crown-width models for black walnut trees with existing and new tree measurements on selected Hardwood Tree Improvement and Regeneration Center (HTIRC) plots. Using spatial information on trees, I develop an individual tree level thinning model and simulate their post-thinning growth and yield. Significant predictors of annual diameter growth between years 10 to 18 include the initial tree DBH, forest edge effects, distance-dependent neighborhood competition, and tree age. Significant edge effects exist up to 3 rows and 3 trees from the non-forested edge. A tree on the perimeter rows grows 0.30 cm (0.12in.) in DBH more per year than the interior trees, between years 10 to 18. Next, I dovetail my results from the spatially explicit thinning model with the USFS Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) to understand the impacts of different scenarios of planting densities, site productivities, thinning treatments, and expected yields (as percentage of the total volume) of veneer sawlogs to quantify the growth and profitability from the mid-rotation until the final harvest. To support the attendant financial analyses, I incorporate risk into these projections by simulating stochastic windthrows based on certain assumptions. My projections suggest that, without the threat of windthrow damage, the net present day value (NPV) could exceed $4,900 per acre on the highest quality sites (SI =100) and high densities at planting (6 feet x 6 feet), assuming 10% or more of final volume was veneer and using a 3% discount rate. In contrast, under simulations of probable windthrow disturbances from mid-rotation to final harvest, the chances that standing timber value at harvest exceeds $5,000 per acre are 43.13% for a 96- and 90-year rotation and increase to 45.48% for 75 and further to 56.04% for 60.</p>