Thesis (MScFor)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Several studies have shown that stands of invasive alien plants in the natural forest environment can facilitate the rehabilitation and recovery of such forests and challenged the general and global perception that such invasive species threaten the biodiversity and functioning of natural vegetation systems. The aim of this study was to develop an understanding of the dynamics of the spread and establishment of natural forest species in a large stand of the invasive alien plant species Acacia mearnsii (Black wattle) along the Buffeljagsrivier, Western Cape, South Africa. Several patches of Moist forest, Dry forest and Riparian forest occur along the Buffeljagsrivier, above the Buffeljagsrivier dam. The stand of Black wattle consists of 90 ha for a distance of 3.12 km. The main objective was pursued through four specific objectives: (i) to map and assess the patterns in the distribution, size and species composition of the natural forest clusters within the Black wattle stand; (ii) to determine the relationship between natural forest clusters establishing within the Black wattle stand and the neighboring natural forest patches as potential seed sources for the developing forest clusters; (iii) to determine the subsequent spread of natural forest species from the developing forest clusters into the rest of the Black wattle stand; and (iv) to synthesize the information on the dynamics of the spread and establishment of natural forest species into the Black wattle stand as a basis for developing general guidelines for the conversion of invasive alien plant stands in the forest environment towards regrowing natural forest. In total, 329 clusters of natural forest species were GPS recorded and mapped (Arc-GIS) in three zones (Proximal, Intermediate and Distant in relation to the forest patches) within the Black wattle stand: 266 small clusters (one to three reproductively mature trees), 36 medium sized clusters (four to nine trees) and 27 large clusters (more than 10 trees). Large clusters were abundant in the zone close to the natural forest patches and the number of small clusters increased with increasing distance from the forest patches. A total of 28 species of 20 families were recorded. Natural forest species are therefore able to establish within a Black wattle stand. The relationship between natural forest clusters establishing within the Black wattle stand and the natural forest patches as potential seed sources was studied by sampling the stand composition along transects through the stands. A total of 55 rectangular plots (20 m x 10 m, 200 m2) were sampled across forest patches and forest clusters. Hierarchical clustering analysis, using number of stems of a species per plot, identified three main groups and 10 sub-groups. All the sampled forest clusters were included in four of the five Riparian forest sub-groups. Most Moist and Dry forest species were absent from the forest clusters. The three main forest types differed in their general characteristics and site conditions, and this was supported by the ordination analyses: aspect, slope and canopy closure. The developing forest clusters within the Black wattle stand related more to the Riparian forest in terms of similar very gentle south-westerly slope and mean stem diameter. This suggested Riparian forest to be the primary seed source of the establishing forest clusters within the Black wattle stand. However, the large-sized stems of common species were not significantly different between Riparian forest patches and forest clusters, suggesting that large-sized stems in the forest clusters could be part of remnant forest patches, which could act as local seed sources. Detailed evaluation of species importance values and stem diameter distributions showed that some important Moist and Dry forest species are present in the forest clusters. The conclusion was that every type of forest patch contributes to a greater or lesser degree to the development of forest clusters within the Black wattle stand. Seven large clusters were selected to sample the regeneration of natural forest species within 18 m from the forest cluster boundary. Two species lists were generated; one of species from adjacent natural forest patches, and another from 59 forest clusters of all sizes sampled throughout the wattle stand. The results indicated that (1) Mature trees of well-established forest clusters were the main seed sources for the cluster expansion in all directions; (2) Three different patterns were observed in terms of the distance of expansion of regeneration from the clusters: a decrease in regeneration with increasing distance from the cluster margin; increasing regeneration with increasing distance from the cluster; and no distinct pattern with a lack of regeneration of the dominant species of a forest cluster. The 40 species recorded within the Buffeljagsrivier site include a wide range of fruit and seed characteristics. Four main groups of woody species were identified, based on their presence/absence in forest patches and forest clusters. The presence/absence of most species can be explained in terms of their fruit/seed characteristics and dispersal mechanisms. The majority of recorded woody species were most likely dispersed by birds and mammal, particularly Rameron pigeons and baboons. In conclusion, a conceptual framework was developed to guide the rehabilitation of stands of light demanding invasive stands in the forest environment. Several topics for further research were identified. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Verskeie studies het gewys dat opstande van uitheemse indringerplante in die woudomgewing kan die rehabilitasie en herstel van sulke woude fasiliteer, en daag die algemene en globale persepsie uit dat sulke indringerplantspecies die biodiversiteit en funksionering van natuurlike plantegroeisisteme bedreig. Die doel van hierdie studie was om ‘n beter begrip te ontwikkel van die dinamika vir die verspreiding en vestiging van inheemse woudspesies binne ‘n omvangryke opstand van die uitheemse indringerplant, Acacia mearnsii (swartwattel), langs die Buffeljagsrivier, Wes-Kaap, Suid Afrika. Verskeie kolle (‘patches’) van Vogtige, Droë- en Oewerwoud kom langs die Buffeljagsrivier voor. Die swartwattel opstand van ongeveer 90 ha groei langs die Buffeljagsrivier oor ‘n afstand van 3.12 km, tussen die dam en die woudkolle aan die stroom-op kant van die swartwattelopstand. Die hoofdoel is nagevolg deur vier spesifieke doelwitte: (i) om die groepies (‘clusters’) vestigende inheemse houtagtige plantsoorte binne die swartwattelbos te karteer en die patrone in hul verspreiding, grootte en spesies samestelling binne die swartwattelopstand te evalueer; (ii) om die verwantskap tussen natuurlike woudgroepies wat binne die swartwattelopstand vestig en die aangrensende woudkolle as potensiële saadbronne vir die ontwikkelende woudgroepies te bepaal; (iii) om die daaropvolgende verspreiding van inheemse woudspesies vanaf die ontwikkelende woudgroepies binne die res van die swartwattelopstand te bepaal; en (iv) om die inligting oor die dinamika van die verspreiding en vestiging van die woudspesies binne-in die swartwattelopstand saam te vat as ‘n basis vir die ontwikkeling van algemene riglyne vir die omskepping van uitheemse indringerplantopstande in die woudomgewing na hergroeiende inheemse woud. In totaal is 329 groepies van inheemse woudspesies aangeteken (via GPS) en gekarteer (Arc-GIS) in drie sones (nabygeleë, intermediêre en afgeleë) binne die swartwattel opstand: 266 klein groepies (een tot drie voortplantingsvolwasse bome), 36 medium-grootte groepies (vier tot nege bome) en 27 groot groepies (10 of meer bome). Groot groepies was volop in die sone naby aan die woudkolle en die aantal klein groepies het toegeneem met toenemende afstand vanaf die woudkolle. ‘n Totaal van 28 species van 20 families is aangeteken, en spesies soos Canthium inerme, Celtis africana, Gymnosporia buxifolia, Rapanea melanophloeos en Vepris lanceolata was algemeen binne die swartwattelopstand. Dit is daarom moontlik vir inheemse woudspesies om binne die swartwattelopstand te vestig. Die verhouding tussen inheemse woudgroepies wat binne die swartwattelopstand vestig en die woudkolle as potensiële saadbronne is bestudeer deur die opstandsamestelling langs transekte deur die opstande te bemonster. ‘n Totaal van 55 reghoekige persele (20 x 10 m, 200 m2) is opgemeet: nege in Droeëwoudkolle, 17 in Vogtige woudkolle, 20 in Oewerwoudkolle, en nege in die woudgroepies binne the swartwattelopstand. Hiërargiese Groeperingsanalise, gebaseer op aantal stamme van ‘n spesies per plot, het drie hoofgroepe en 10 sub-groepe ge-identifiseer: Vogtige woud met drie sub-groepe, Oewerwoud met vyf sub-groepe, en Droeëwoud met twee sub-groepe. Al die gemete woudgroepies is in vier van die Oewerwoud sub-groepe ingesluit. Die meeste Vogtige en Droeëwoud spesies was afwesig van die woudgroepies. Die hoof woudtipes (Droog, Vogtig, Oewer) verskil in hul algemene eienskappe en groeiplektoestande, en dis ondersteun deur die ordinasie-analises: aspek, helling en kroonsluiting. Die ontwikkelende woudgroepies binne die swartwattelopstand was nouer verbonde met Oewerwoud in terme van soortglyke baie geleidelike suid-westelike helling en gemiddelde stamdeursneë. Dit veronderstel dat Oewerwoud is die primêre saadbron van die vestigende woudgroepies binne die swartwattelopstand. Baie inheemse woudspesies kom egter oor die verskillende groepe en sub-groepe voor, met goeie verjonging oor die gemeenskappe. Die stamdeursneë van goter stamme van algemene spesies was niebeduidend verskillend tussen die Oewerwoudkolle en die woudgroepies, en dit veronderstel dat die groter stamme in die woudgroepies kan deel wees van oorblywende woudkolle, wat as plaaslike saadbronne kan dien. Gedetaileerde ontleding van spesies belangrikheidswaardes en stamdeursneëklasverdelings het getoon dat sommige belangrike Vogtige en Droeëwoud spesies is wel teenwoordig in die woudgroepies. Die gevolgtrekking was dat elke tipe woudkol in a mindere of meerdere mate bydra tot die ontwikkeling van die woudgroepies binne die swartwattelopstand. Sewe groot woudgroepies is geselekteer om die woudverjonging binne 18 m vanaf die woudgroepierand te bemonster. Twee spesieslyste is saamgestel; een van spesies van die aangrensende woudkolle, en een van spesies van 59 woudgroepies van alle groottes wat deur die hele swartwattelopstand aangeteken is. Die resultate het aangetoon dat (1) volwasse bome van goed-gevestigde woudgroepies was die hoof saadbronne vir die uitbreiding van die woudgroepies in all rigtings; (2) drie verskillende patrone is waargeneem in terme van die afstand van uitbreiding van verjonging weg vanaf die woudgroepies: ‘n afname in verjonging met toenemende afstand vanaf die groepierand; toenemende verjonging met toenemende afstand vanaf die woudgroepie; en geen beduidende patroon met ‘n gebrek aan verjonging van die dominante spesies van die woudgroepie. Die 40 spesies wat binne die Buffeljagsrivierstudiegebied aangeteken is het ‘n wye reeks vrug- en saadeienskappe ingesluit. Vier hoofgroepe van houtagtige spesies is geïdentifiseer, gebaseer op hul aan- of afwesigheid in die woudgroepies and woudkolle: spesies algemeen in die woudkolle en teenwoordig in die woudgroepies; spesies spesifiek to bepaalde woudkolle en teenwoordig in die woudgroepies; spesies teenwoordig in die woudkolle maar afwesig van die woudgroepies; en spesies afwesig van die woudkolle maar teenwoordig in die woudgroepies. Die aan- of afwesigheid van die meeste spesies kan verduidelik word in terme van hul vrug/saadeienskappe en verspreidingsmeganismes. Die meerderheid van aangetekende houtagtige spesies was meeswaarskynlik deur voëls en soogdiere versprei, veral Geelbekbosduiwe en Bobbejane. Ten slotte, ‘n konsepsuele raamwerk is ontwikkel om die rehabilitasie van opstande van ligafhanklike indringerspesies in die woudomgewing te rig. Verskeie onderwerpe vir verdere navorsing is geïdentifiseer. / RESUME: Plusieurs études ont montré que les peuplements de plantes exotiques envahissantes dans le milieu de forêt naturelle peuvent favoriser la réhabilitation de ces forêts contestant par-là, la perception générale et globale que ces espèces envahissantes menacent la biodiversité et le fonctionnement des systèmes de végétation naturelle. L’objective de cet étude était de mieux comprendre le dynamisme d’établissement et de propagation dans une forêt naturelle des espèces forestières au sein d’un large peuplement de l'espèce de plantes exotiques envahissantes Acacia mearnsii (acacia noir) le long de Buffeljagsrivier, Western Cape, en Afrique du Sud afin d’élaborer des axes directives de réhabilitation relative aux recouvrements d’espèces invasive. La forêt de Buffeljagsrivier s’étale sur un gradient de petites parcelles de forêt allant de forêt sèche, humide et marécageux. Au milieu de ces parcelles de Buffeljagsrivier, on circonscrit un peuplement d’acacia noir estimé à 90 ha sur une distance de 3,12 km. L’objective principal s’est poursuit à travers quatre sous objectives à savoir: (i) cartographier et évaluer les formes d’ invasions dans la distribution, la taille et la composition des recouvrements des espèces de forêt naturelle à l’intérieur du recouvrement d’acacia noir servant comme preuve possible de l’existence et établissement des espèces de forêt naturelle sous un recouvrement d'une espèces invasive; (ii) de déterminer la relation entre les recouvrements de forêt naturelle s’établissant á l’intérieur du peuplement d’acacia noir et ceux de la forêt naturelle avoisinante humide, sèche et marécageuse pouvant être considéré comme sources potentiel de semences conduisant au développement des premiers recouvrement cités; (iii) de déterminer l’étalement subséquent des espèces de la forêt naturelle à partir des recouvrements d’ acacia noir se développant à l’intérieur du reste du peuplement de l’Acacia noir; (iv) Synthétiser les informations sur la dynamique de la propagation et l'établissement d'espèces forestières naturelles dans l’acacia noir comme une base pour l'élaboration des lignes directrices générales pour la conversion de peuplements de plantes exotiques envahissantes se trouvant dans l'environnement de la forêt vers des repousses des forêts naturelles. Au total, 329 recouvrements d'espèces forestières naturelles ont été GPS enregistrées et cartographiées (Arc -GIS) dans trois zones (Proximale, Intermédiaire et Eloignée par rapport aux parcelles de forêt avoisinantes) dans le peuplement de l'acacia noir: 266 petits recouvrements avaient un à trois arbres matures, 36 recouvrements de taille moyenne avaient quatre à neuf arbres matures et 27 larges recouvrements avaient plus de 10 arbres matures. La visualisation de la carte a révélé que les larges recouvrements de forêt mature étaient abondant dans la zone proche des parcelles de forêt naturelle avoisinantes et que de petits recouvrements de jeunes arbres de forêt naturelles croissaient en nombre à mesure que la distance depuis les parcelles de forêts naturelles adjacentes s’élargissait. Un total de 28 espèces appartenant à 20 familles a été répertorié. Deux familles, Rubiaceae suivit de Anacardiaceae ont dominé l’echantillon. Les espèces forestières naturelles sont donc en mesure de s’établir dans un peuplement d'acacia noir. L’échantillon qui a servi à l’évaluation des sources de semences pour le développement des recouvrements de forêt naturelle à travers l’investigation de la relation entre les recouvrements de forêt naturels qui s’établissent à l’intérieur du peuplement d’acacia noir et les parcelles de forêt avoisinantes humide, sèche et marécageuse était constitué de 55 placettes rectangulaires de 200m2 le long de layons à travers le site d’étude. Une analyse hiérarchique des recouvrements réalisée sur la composition des espèces de l’échantillon a révèle que la forêt marécageuse concentre les espèces les plus fréquentes des recouvrements de forêts, et que la majorité des espèces présentes sur les parcelles des forêts sèches et humides étaient absente dans l’ensemble des recouvrements des forêts de l’acaci noir. Les trois principaux types de forêts différaient dans leurs caractéristiques générales et les conditions du site, et cela a été appuyé par l’analyse d’ordinants à partir de trois facteurs environnementaux, la pente, l’angle d’inclinaison par rapport au soleil, et la fermeture de la canopée. Les recouvrements de foret en développement au sein de l'acacia noir se sont trouvés davantage liés à la forêt marécageuse en termes de pente plate orientée sud-ouest et en diamètre moyen des arbres. Ces résultats ont désigné la forêt marécageuse comme la première source potentielle de semences permettant l’établissement des recouvrements de forêt à l’intérieur des peuplements d’acacia noir. Cependant, les souches d’arbres de grande taille des espèces communes entre les parcelles de forêts marécageuses et les recouvrements de forêt dans l’acaci noir n'étaient pas significativement différents, suggérant ainsi que ces arbres de grande taille trouves dans les recouvrements de foret pourraient faire parties des parcelles de forêt subsistantes de la dernière turbulence. Elles pourraient constituer des sources locales de semences. Par ailleurs, une évaluation détaillée des valeurs d'importance des espèces et des distributions des diamètres des souches d’arbres a montré que certaines espèces importantes de forêts humides et sèches sont présentes dans les recouvrements de foret. Finalement l’on conclue que chaque type de parcelles de forêt contribue plus ou moins à l’établissement des recouvrements de forêt dans le peuplement de l'acacia noir. Sept grands recouvrements de foret ont été sélectionnés pour étudier la régénération des espèces forestières naturelles sur un rayon de 18 m depuis la limite du recouvrement de foret. Deux listes d'espèces ont été générées, l'une des espèces de parcelles de forêt naturelle adjacentes, et une autre venant des 59 recouvrements de foret, toutes tailles confondues le long de l'acacia noir. Les résultats ont indiqué que (1) Les recouvrements de forêts, lorsque bien matures et bien établies devenaient les principales sources de semences pour leur expansion sur toutes les directions; (2) Trois allures différentes ont été observées en fonction de la distance de l'expansion de la régénération autour des recouvrements: une diminution de la régénération avec l'augmentation de la distance; une croissance de la régénération avec une distance croissante depuis les revcouvrements de foret, et pas d’allure particulaire voire une absence de régénération de certaines especes pourtant dominant dans les recouvrements de foret. Les 40 espèces recensées sur le site deBuffeljagsrivier comprennent un large éventail de caractéristiques de fruits et de graines. Quatre principaux groupes d'espèces ligneuses ont été identifiées, en fonction de leur présence / absence dans des parcelles de forêt et les recouvrements de forêt. De façon générale, la présence / absence de la plupart des espèces a pu être expliquée en termes de caractéristiques de leur fruits/graines et les mécanismes de dispersion. La majorité des espèces ligneuses enregistrées sont susceptibles d’être dispersées par les oiseaux et les mammifères, en particulier les pigeons rameron et les babouins vues sur le terrain. En conclusion, un cadre conceptuel a été élaboré pour guider la réhabilitation de peuplements envahissants de lumière en milieu forestier. Plusieurs sujets pour des recherches plus poussées ont été identifiés.

Dissertation (PhD (For))--University of Stellenbosch, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The objective of this study is to develop a new method which can be used to forecast the Forest Engineering value chain. The method is then applied in the South African context in order to validate the use thereof. Finally, the South African results are used to propose strategies, which the industry should pursue in the future. To forecast the future an understanding of the past is required. To this end, the historical development of Forest Engineering is discussed, both globally and in South Africa. The current status quo in Forest Engineering in South Africa was determined through a national survey of plantations larger than 200 ha. The results are reflected in Chapter 2. Because of the importance of globalisation and technology, Chapter 3 gives a literature review of relevance of technology in today's business world, including various forecasting techniques that are relevant to the study. These techniques are a combination of traditional forecasting methods, technology forecasting methods and strategic planning methods. Various approaches to financial analysis have also been discussed, in order to determine the soundest method of comparing various forest engineering systems with each other. This includes an overview of traditional machine cost calculations. The core of the study lies in the combination of these methodologies into a useful method, which is particularly suited to forecasting the Forest Engineering value chain. Such a method is developed in Chapter 4, based on the literature review of forecasting methodologies. The method is then validated in Chapter 5, through the application thereof in the South African forestry industry. Global trends are established with the use of a Delphi study. This technique uses a panel of experts who give their views on future developments on a multiple round basis. The study then evaluates 14 Forest Engineering systems for pine sawtimber, pine pulpwood and Eucalyptus pulpwood, based on various scenarios of the future. The scenario matrix is based on the future cost of labour vs. the future cost of machinery. Finally, a strategy is proposed on how the South African forestry industry should prepare itself for the future. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die doelwit van die studie is om 'n nuwe metode te ontwikkel waarmee 'n vooruitskatting van die Bosingenieurswese waardeketting gemaak kan word. Die metode word dan in die Suid-Afrikaanse konteks toegepas om die geldigheid daarvan te beproef. Die Suid-Afrikaanse resultate word voorts gebruik om 'n nasionale Bosingenieurswese strategie voor te stel vir die bedryf. Dit is nodig om die verlede te verstaan, voor die toekoms vooruitgeskat kan word. Om dié rede is die historiese ontwikkeling van bosingenieurswese bespreek, in beide 'n internasionale, sowel as 'n Suid Afrikaanse konteks. Die huidige status quo van Bosingenieurswese in Suid Afrika is vasgestel deur 'n nasionale opname waarby plantasies van groter as 200 ha ingesluit is. Die resultate van die opname word weergegee in Hoofstuk 2. As gevolg van die belangrikheid van beide globalisering en tegnologie, is 'n literatuur studie ingesluit in Hoofstuk 3 oor die relevansie van tegnologie in die besigheidswêreld van vandag, asook en 'n bespreking van verskeie vooruitskattingstegnieke wat in die studie gebruik kan word. Hierdie vooruitskattinge is 'n kombinasie van tradisionele vooruitskattings tegnieke, tegnologie vooruitskattingstegnieke en tegnieke wat gebruik word vir strategiese beplanning. Verskeie benaderinge tot finansiële analise is ook bespreek. Dit sluit tradisionele masjienkoste berekening in. Die rede hiervoor is om vas te stel watter metode die mees geskikte sou wees om verskeie Bosingenieurswese sisteme met mekaar te vergelyk. Die kern van die studie lê in die kombinasie van hierdie metodes om 'n bruikbare metode te ontwerp om die Bosingenieurswese waardeketting vooruit te skat. Hierdie ontwerp word in Hoofstuk 4 bespreek. Die metode word in Hoofstuk 5 beproef, deur die toepassing daarvan op die Suid Afrikaanse bosbedryf. Internasionale bosingenieurswese tendense is vasgestel deur middel van 'n Delphi studie. Hierdie vooruitskatting maak gebruik van 'n paneel van kundiges wat hulle siening oor die toekoms uitspreek deur verskeie rondtes van vrae wat aan hulle gestel word. Die studie evalueer hierna 14 Bosingenieurswese sisteme vir denne saaghout, denne pulphout en Eucalyptus pulphout, gebaseer op 'n scenario-analise van die toekoms. Die scenario matriks is gefundeer op die toekomstige koste van arbeid teenoor die toekomstige koste van masjinerie. As 'n finale stap word voorgestel hoe die Suid Afrikaanse bosbedryf kan voorberei om die toekoms tegemoet te gaan.

Thesis (PhD(For))--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / The subtropical ecosystem of the Zululand coastal plain is prized by the South African commercial plantation forestry industry for its rapid clonal Eucalyptus growth, short rotations (6 to 7 years) and high yields. This region is typified by sandy soils that are low in clay and organic matter, have small nutrient reserves and are poorly buffered against nutrient loss. The subtropical climate induces rapid decomposition of residues and tree litter resulting in small litter nutrient pools and rapid nutrient release into the soil, particularly after clearfelling. A combination of large nutrient demands through rapid growth, rapid nutrient turnover and small soil nutrient reserves implies that sites in this region are sensitive and may be at risk of nutrient decline under intensive management. The work in this study set out to determine the risk of nutrient depletion through harvesting and residue management on a site within the Zululand region, to assess nutritional sustainability and the risk of yield decline in successive rotations. Some bulk biogeochemical cycling processes of macro-nutrients nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium (K), calcium (Ca) and magnesium (Mg) were assessed, and assessments also included sodium (Na). An existing Eucalyptus stand was clearfelled and treatments were imposed on the residues after broadcasting to simulate various levels of nutrient loss through levels of harvesting intensity and residue management. These included residue burning (Burn), residue retention (No-Burn), fertilisation (stem wood nutrient replacement), whole tree harvesting and residue doubling. Outer blocks of the stand were not felled, but included as replicates of an undisturbed standing crop treatment. Biogeochemical nutrient cycling processes were assessed primarily in the standing crop, Burn and No-Burn treatments, in the assumption that these represented the furthest extremes of nutrient loss. Data collection commenced a year prior to clearfelling and continued to two years and six months after planting with key data collection over a 20.1 month period from clearfelling to canopy closure (one year after planting). Water related nutrient pools and fluxes were assessed as atmospheric deposition (bulk rainfall, throughfall and stemflow) and gravitational leaching to 1m soil depth. Drainage fluxes were predicted using the Hydrus model and real-time soil moisture data. Zero tension lysimeters collected soil solution for chemical analysis. Sequential coring in the 0 to 30cm soil layer was used to determine in situ soil N mineralisation. Soil chemical and physical properties were assessed over the first meter of soil at clearfelling and new crop canopy closure to determine soil nutrient pools sizes. Biomass nutrient fluxes were assessed from litterfall, residue and litter decomposition, and above ground accretion into the tree biomass. Leaching and N mineralisation were monitored in the No-Burn, Burn and standing crop treatments only. Atmospheric deposition, while variable, was shown to be responsible for large quantities of nutrients added to the Eucalyptus stand. Nitrogen and K additions were relatively high, but within ranges reported in previous studies. Rapid tree canopy expansion and subsequent soil water utilisation in the standing crop permitted little water to drain beyond 1m resulting in small leaching losses despite a sandy well drained soil. Further leaching beyond this depth was unlikely under the conditions during the study period. Mineralisation and immobilisation of N also remained low with net immobilisation occurring. The standing crop was shown to be a relatively stable system that, outside of extreme climatic events, had a relatively balanced or positive nutrient budget (i.e. nutrient inputs minus outputs). Large quantities of nutrients were removed with stem-wood-only harvesting in the No-Burn treatment leaving substantial amounts on the soil surface in the harvest residues. Whole tree removal increased losses of all nutrients resulting in the largest losses of P and base cations compared to all other treatments. This was mostly due to high nutrient concentrations in the removed bark. Loss of N in the Burn treatment exceeded whole tree N losses through combustion of N held in the harvest residues and litter layer. The majority of K leached from the residues prior to burning and a relatively small fraction of the base cations were lost from the partially decomposed residues during burning. Ash containing substantial amounts of Ca and relatively large amounts of N and Mg remained after burning. Surface soil Ca and Mg was significantly increased by the ash which moved into the soil with rainfall directly after burning. Rapid soil moisture recharge occurred within a few months after clearfelling, increasing leaching from the upper 50cm of soil. Clearfelling increased net N mineralisation rates, increasing mobile NO3-N ions in the soil surface layers. Nitrate concentration peaked and K concentration dipped in the upper soil layers of the Burn treatment directly after burning. Deep drainage and leaching (beyond 1m depth) over the 20.1 month period was, however, not significantly different between the Burn and No-Burn treatments. Rapid soil moisture depletion and nutrient uptake with new crop growth reduced leaching fluxes to levels similar to the standing crop by six months after planting. Taking the full rotation into account, clearfelling induced a short-lived spike in N and cation leaching compared with the low leaching losses in the undisturbed standing crop. Soil N mineralisation over the 20.1 month period in the burnt treatment was half that of the No-Burn treatment. Growth and nutrient accumulation was significantly higher in the fertilised treatment than in other treatments up to 2.5 years of age. Growth in the Burn treatment was greatest compared to other treatments during the first few months, but slowed thereafter. No significant growth differences were found between all other treatments from a year to 2.5 years after planting. Early growth was therefore apparently not limited by N supply despite large differences in N mineralisation between Burn and No-Burn. Foliar vector analysis indicated that fertilisation improved growth initially through increased foliar N and P at six months after planting followed by Mg and Ca at one year. The Burn treatment was not nutrient limited. These growth results contrasted with similar international research on sandy tropical sites where growth was reduced after residue removal and increased after residue doubling. The combined nutrients released from pools in the litter layer or ash and soil in addition to atmospheric inputs were sufficient to provide most nutrients required to maintain similar growth rates across all treatments. This demonstrated the importance of residue derived nutrients to early growth nutrient supply. Reduced N mineralisation through a lack of substrate may limit N supply later in the rotation where residue had been removed. Construction of a nutrient budget for the system revealed that high levels of atmospheric inputs have the potential to partially replenish a large proportion N, K, and Ca lost during clearfelling, provided losses are constrained to stemwood removal only. However, loss of Mg that occurred primarily through leaching may not be replaced under the low Mg inputs recorded in this study. Larger nutrient removals (i.e. stemwood plus other plant parts) placed a heavier reliance on the small soil nutrient pools at this site which can limit future productivity. More intense harvesting and residue management practices dramatically increased the risk of nutrient depletion. Losses of specific nutrients depended on a combination of clearfelling biomass removal, residue burning and subsequent leaching. Nitrogen losses due to harvesting and burning were more substantial than those due to leaching. Mg and K losses depended most strongly on the time after clearfelling before re-establishment of the new crop and rainfall patterns, while Ca and P losses depended directly on the amount of biomass removed. Depletion risk was the greatest for Mg and K through rapid leaching, even after stem wood only removal. Deep root uptake and deep drainage with associated cation loss needs to be investigated further to quantify ecosystem losses and recovery of cations displaced beyond 1m. Atmospheric deposition is one of major factors countering nutrient losses. However, atmospheric inputs may not be reliable as these may lessen in future through pollution control legislation and climate change. Changes in growth rate under poor nutrient management practices are small and difficult to detect relative to the large impacts of changing weather patterns (drought), wildfire and pest and disease. This makes it difficult to prove nutrient related growth decline. It may be possible that improvements in genetics, silvicultural technologies and atmospheric inputs may also be masking site decline (in general) and in part explain the lack of evidence of a growth reduction in the region. As the poorly buffered sandy soils on the Zululand Coast are at risk of nutrient depletion under the short rotation, high productivity stands, it may be necessary to stipulate more conservative harvesting and residue management practices. A more conservative stem-wood only harvesting regime is recommended, retaining all residues on site. Residue burning should be avoided if N losses become a concern. The length of the inter-rotation period must be kept short to reduce cation leaching losses. Site nutrient pools need to be monitored and cations may eventually need to be replenished through application of fertilisers or ash residues from pulp mills. Management practices therefore need to be chosen based on the specific high risk nutrients in order to maintain a sustainable nutrient supply to current and future plantation grown Eucalyptus.

Thesis (MFor)--University of Stellenbosch, 2003. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The factors determining habitat selection of large herbivores, on a private wildlife reserve in semi-arid southeastern Zimbabwe, were investigated. Gross vegetative structure, herbaceous composition and topographic features thought to determine herbivore distribution were measured. Seasonal variation in resource distribution was considered, and research therefore extended over an entire year. Herbivore distribution and ecological niche separation was explained through several important environmental variables, and potential for inter-specific competition inferred. Additionally, predictive habitat suitability models were designed for each of the grazing species in the critical dry season. Herbivores showed a large degree of niche overlap in both the hotwet season and the cool-dry season, when food resources were more plentiful. Niche separation between grazers was pronounced in the hot-dry season. Herbivore distribution was associated most closely with distance to water, grass sward height, time since burn, woody plant density and by the presence of predominant grasses, these being Urochloa mossambicensis, Panicum maximum, Heteropogon contortus and Digitaria eriantha. Ecological separation of herbivores by the grasses P. maximum, H. contortus and D. eriantha was more indicative of associated environmental variables than feeding niche separation. A GIS-based analysis, using species presence data and quantitative coverages of environmental variables, produced maps of gradations of habitat suitability for grazing species during the dry season. Results of both analyses were integrated and gave a better understanding of ecological separation, and possible competitive interactions, among the large herbivore community on Malilangwe Estate. Recommendations were made based on the interpretation of findings, within the context of available management options. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die bepalende faktore van habitat seleksie by groot herbivore op ‘n privaat wildreservaat in semi-dorre suidoos Zimbabwe is ondersoek. Globale plantegroei stuktuur, kruidagtige samestelling en topografiese eienskappe wat glo herbivoor verspreiding bepaal, is gemeet. Seisoenale variasie in hulpbronverspreiding is in ag geneem en dus het navorsing oor ‘n hele jaar gestrek. Herbivoor verspreiding en ekologiese nisskeiding is verduidelik deur verskeie belangrike omgewingsveranderlikes en die potensiaal vir interspesifieke kompetisie is afgelei. Boonop is voorspellende habitat-geskiktheidsmodelle ontwerp vir elk van die weidingspesies in die krities droë seisoen. Herbivore toon ‘n hoë graad van nis oorvleueling in sowel die warm, nat seisoen as die koel, droë seisoen wanneer voedingsbronne meer volop is. Nis verdeling tussen weidiere was duidelik herkenbaar in die warm, droë seisoen. Herbivoor verspreiding is meestal geassosieer met die afstand na die water, die grasveld hoogte, tydperk sedert ‘n brand, digtheid van houtagtige plantsoorte en met die teenwoordigheid van die oorheersende grasse, Urochloa mossambicensis, Panicum maximum, Heteropogon contortus en Digitaria eriantha. Die ekologiese skeiding van herbivore deur die grasse P. maximum, H. contortus en D. eriantha het meer gedui op geassosieerde omgewingsveranderlikes as op skeiding van voedingsnisse. ‘n GIS-gebaseerde analise wat spesie-teenwoordigheidsdata en kwantitatiewe dekking van omgewingsveranderlikes gebruik, het klassifikasiekaarte geproduseer van habitatgeskiktheid vir weidiere tydens die droë seisoen. Resultate van beide analises is geïntegreer en het ‘n beter begrip van ekologiese skeiding en moontlike kompeterende interaksies tussen die groot herbivore gemeenskap op Malilangwe Estate tot gevolg gehad. Aanbevelings is gemaak, gebaseer op die interpretasie van bevindinge, binne die konteks van beskikbare bestuursopsies.

Thesis (MSc (Forest and Wood Science))—University of Stellenbosch, 2007. / The utilization and commercialization of indigenous fruit trees has in the past been overlooked by extension agencies due to the misconception that they do not play a major role in contributing to the rural livelihoods. There is new and increasing emphasis on the contribution of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) on improving the livelihoods and sustainable management of forest ecosystems of the Miombo woodlands. This study was conducted around Mwekera area in the Copperbelt province, Zambia to determine the role of indigenous fruit trees in the rural livelihoods. A total of 70 households were interviewed in the survey using semi-structured questionnaires, in-depth open ended interviews and focus group meetings to collect information on the use of indigenous fruits. The study revealed that 99% of the households experience ‘hunger’ during the rainy season from November to April every year. Ninety seven percent (97%) of the households collect indigenous fruit, with the most collected fruits being Uapaca kirkiana (74%), Anisophyllea boehmii (71%) and Parinari curatellifolia (67%). Additionally, there is very little selling of indigenous fruit (31%) but that Uapaca kirkiana and Anisophyllea boehmii account for 95% of the fruits sold. Forty six percent (46%) of the households process fruits of U. kirkiana, A. boehmii and P. curatellifolia into juice and/or porridge. Furthermore IFTs are also used as traditional medicine. Sixty three percent (63%) of the households used IFTs for medicinal purposes with two-thirds of the respondents citing Anisophyllea boehmii as an important medicinal tree species. The study also showed that 85% of the respondents have seen a change in the forest cover resulting into loss of biodiversity with 70% of the respondents indicating that the change is with respect to reduction in forest size and scarcity of some species; and that charcoal production and clearance of land for cultivation are the major causes of the scarcity of indigenous fruit trees. It is concluded that the major contribution of IFTs in the study area is in filling the gap during times of hunger rather as being a source of income through selling. Charcoal production and clearance for agriculture are the main contributing agents for the loss of biodiversity and scarcity of IFTs. It is recommended that domestication of IFTs and sustainable forestry and agricultural management practices be employed to ensure that future generations continue to benefit from the forest resource.

Thesis (MFor)--Stellenbosch University, 2011. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study is aimed at testing the possibility of using woody biomass from three invasive woody vegetation types (Spider Gum, Myrtle and Acacia) for production of bioenergy in the Cape Agulhas Plain. Physical recoverability of the woody biomass was studied by means of a semi-mechanized harvesting system to evaluate potential productivity, operational costs and the estimated yield energy gain. The system consisted of five components: manual harvesting, motor-manual harvesting, extraction, chipping and road transport. Data on the system productivity was obtained using activity sampling and time study techniques. Activity sampling was applied on manual and motor-manual harvesting in order to record harvesting time and standard time study techniques were used to obtain time data for extraction, chipping and road transport operations. Findings revealed benefits associated with the utilisation of invasive woody vegetation as energy feedstock. Therefore, the problem of exotic tree species can be dealt with by transforming them into energy feedstock, thus minimising the effect of invasive plants. At the same time essential biomass energy can be produced, while some of the cost of production could be offset by the benefits accruing from the biomass energy. The Acacia site, characterized by larger mature dense trees, had the highest amount of harvested biomass compared to the rest of the vegetation types (i.e. Myrtle and Spider Gum). The overall system productivity was found to be significantly influenced by a low equipment utilisation rate, estimated at 50%. This resulted in low production rates in general. The low supply rate of material to the chipper by the three-wheeled loader (1.5 – 5.3 oven-dry tonne per production machine hour) was found to be a major constraint in the chipping process, especially when considering that the chipper is potentially capable of chipping 4 – 9.4 ODT PMH-1 at the harvesting sites. This resulted in a significant energy balance of 463 GJ between output and input energy of the system. The overall total supply chain system costs based various road transport distances of species ranged from R 322.77 ODT-1 to R 689.76 ODT-1 with an average of R 509 ODT-1. This was found to be costly compare to the case where high machine utilisation rate and optimal productivity are used (average of R 410 ODT-1), biomass recoverability in this field trial had a higher total system cost due to low productivity, resulting from the low equipment utilisation rate applied. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie was gemik daarop om die moontlikheid van die gebruik van houtagtige biomassa, afkomstig van uitheemse plantegroei (Bloekom, Mirte en Akasias) op die Agulhasvlakte vir bio-energie te ondersoek. Potensiële produktiwiteit, bedryfskostes en die geskatte energie opbrengs toename is gebruik, om die fisiese opbrengs van houtagtige biomassa van ʼn semi-gemeganiseerde ontginningstelsel te evalueer. Die stelsel het uit vyf komponente bestaan: Handontginning, motor-handontginning, uitsleep, verspandering en padvervoer. Data oor die stelselproduktiwiteit is uit tydstudie en aktiwiteit steekproewe verkry. Aktiwiteit steekproewe is toegepas op hand- en motorhandontgining om ontginingstyd te verkry, terwyl tydstudie standaardtegnieke gebruik is om tyd data vir uitsleep, verspandering en padvervoer werksaamhede te verkry. Bevindings het die voordele met bettrekking tot die gebruik van uitheemse plantegroei as energiebron bevestig. Die uitdaging rondom die verspreiding van uitheemse plantegroei kan dus aangespreek word deur dit as energiebron te benut. Die produksiekoste vir die toegang tot die bruikbare biomassa kan moontlik voorsien word uit die voordele van die gebruik van die energie wat uit die benutting van die biomassa verkry word. Die groter meer volwasse en digte Akasia opstand het die meeste ontginde biomassa gelewer vergeleke met die ander opstande in die studie (d.i. Mirte en Bloekom). Die stelselproduktiwiteit is beduidend beïnvloed deur die lae toerustinggebruik wat minder as 50% beloop het. Dit het ook laer produksievermoë in die algemeen tot gevolg gehad. In die verspandering werksaamheid blyk die lae invoer tempo (1.5 – 5.3 oonddroog ton per produktiewe masjienuur) van die driewiellaaier die beperking op die proses te wees, veral as in ag geneem word dat die verspandering teen 4-9.4 ODT PMH-1 kan geskied. Die resultaat was ʼn beduidende energie balans van 463 GJ tussen uitset- en invoerenergie van die stelsel. Die totale toevoerketting kostes gegrond op verskeie padvervoer afstande van die spesies was tussen R 322.77 ODT-1 tot R 689.76 ODT-1, met ʼn gemiddelde rondom R 509 ODT-1. Die resultaat is duur gevind in vergeleke met gevalle waar hoë masjiengebruik en optimale produktiwiteit (gemiddeld van R 410 ODT-1), moontlik was. Die biomassaherwinning in die studie het ʼn hoër totale stelselkoste gehad veroorsaak deur lae produktiwiteit, wat verwant is aan die laer toerusting gebruikstempo wat verkry is.

Thesis (MScFor) (Forest and Wood Science)--University of Stellenbosch, 2003. / Planting of upperstorey trees along boundaries has been introduced in KabaleUganda with good reception from local farmers. Trees have been planted along agricultural fields, but both Alnus acuminata and Grew/lea robusta out-compete food crops. Managing competition between trees and crops for water, light, and nutrients to the benefit of farmers is a determinant of successful agroforestry. The scarcity and fragmentation of farmland coupled with the hilly nature of Kabale, highlights the need to address the question of tree-crop competition for resources if the technology of on-farm tree planting is to be widely disseminated and adopted in its different guises. Five-year old trees of A acuminata and G. robusta were subjected to treatments of pollarding, or a combination of pollarding and one side root pruning and compared with unpruned controls. The objectives were to assess their potential in reducing competition with food crops and providing firewood to farmers as well as their effects on tree growth. Pollarding has many benefits to farmers because it provides firewood and stakes for climbing beans, it reduces competition for resources between trees and crops and enables continued tree planting on-farm. Continued on-farm tree planting alleviates problems associated with limited land and contributes to environmental resilience. To ensure this, effect of pollarding and root pruning of upperstorey boundary trees of A acuminata and G. robusta was tested on 12 farmers' fields in Kabale. Food crops (beans and maize) grown in the sequence beans-maize-beans, grew very well at less than 50 em from trees that had been pollarded and root pruned one side. In general, pooled data from 12 sites over 5 m away from trees indicated that a combination of pollarding and root pruning increased bean yield by 240% and maize by 154%, while pollarding alone increased bean yield by 181% and maize yield was increased by 123% in comparison to non-pruned trees. However, pollarding and root pruning treatments reduced tree growth rates.Notable was more competition with crops by A. acuminata than by G. robusta. This was attributed to differences in root architecture, diameter at breast height (dbh) sizes, crown spread and crown density between the two species. Five-year-old A. acuminata had bigger dbh (12.40 cm), wider crown spread (6 m) and a dense crown, while G. robusta had dbh 10.82 em, 3 m crown spread and a light crown. A. acuminata also had more branches per tree (34) compared to G. robusta with only 25. These factors influence water uptake, light penetration through the canopy and transpiration rates, and thus affect tree-food crop competition. It is concluded that pollarding and root pruning have a great potential to reduce tree-crop competition, thereby paving the way for continued on-farm tree planting. The effect of pollarding on timber quality, moisture seepage into timber through the cut surface, if any, and the extent of its damage are areas for further research. The rate of root recovery is also to be followed closely to determine an appropriate frequency for cutting back of roots to recommend to farmers how often they need to prune their trees. It is also suggested that a thorough study be conducted on the amount of water uptake from the soil by each of the species Alnus acuminata and Grevillea robusta. This will help further explain the differences in competition between the two species.

Thesis (MScFor (Forest and Wood Science))--University of Stellenbosch, 2005. / Like in many developing countries, forest and woodland resources contribute significantly to ensure the sustainability of livelihoods of rural people of Eritrea. However, the contribution made by forest and woodland resources has been masked due to the inability of the traditional economic valuation methods to reveal the hidden values of forest resources. As a result they do not reflect in GDP accounting, development planning and conservation policymaking. The underestimation of the importance of forest and woodland resources to the rural subsistence economy results in both market and policy failures. These in turn lead to escalated forest degradation, livelihood insecurity, value conflicts and ineffective conservation programmes. The forest and woodlands of administrative sub-zone Dighe were selected as a case study as they comprise trees, shrubs and other non-woody plants of outstanding importance both in terms of socio-economics and biodiversity richness. However, these resources are being rapidly depleted as a result of clearing for commercial agriculture and are under growing pressure due to resettlement of returnees and needs of other social actors. The study was carried out in three representative administrative areas of the sub-zone. A literature survey was carried out to identify the best of traditional neo-classical economic valuation methods to use in this study. Complementary methods from various streams of economics, ethnobotany, ecological anthropology and rural sociology were reviewed. The sub-set of selected marketable items were quantified and monetised based on market-based valuation approaches; and compared with non-marketable roles to indicate the magnitude of full values of the forest and woodland resources. Values that could not be quantified were described qualitatively. A production-consumption analysis of dom palm scrub leaf harvesting for household utensils was carried out. Forest health was investigated based on observation, semi-structured interviews and secondary information. The study revealed that local forests and woodlands provide essential goods and services for subsistence use, to generate income and to reduce vulnerability during times of hardships. Riverine forests, acacia woodlands and scattered trees and shrubs of grassland are the three vegetation types found in the study area. The riverine forest, dominated by dom palm, is a most valuable resource as it provides for multiple uses. Among the many marketable and non-marketable benefits, forests and woodlands provide wild food, construction material, livestock feed, household utensils, firewood, traditional medicine, shade, climate amelioration, erosion control, cultural heritages and scenic values. All members of rural households regardless of age, gender and wealth extract forest products, which minor variation between households and administrative areas. Variability of consumptive use values between households and between administrative areas and other non-marketable values are determined by relative wealth status, seasonality, resource availability and distribution, market outlets and local institutions. The study revealed that the riverine forests and woodland values of the Dighe administrative sub-zone alone have contributed economical values many times greater than US $ 1.43 million per annum for selected quantifiable items only. This would be higher if the other non-marketable forest values were monetised including the livestock grazing and access to watering points. Beyond any doubt, the high local values of forest and woodlands and consequently the contribution to the national economy justify the conservation of the remaining forest. Moreover, the production-consumption analyses showed that the present level of dom scrub leaf harvesting is sustainable. Forest health situation analysis indicates, however, that the entire forest is under immense pressure. Moreover, the findings of this study suggest that conserving forest resource for local values is compatible with the millennium global development agendas.

Thesis (MScFor)--University of Stellenbosch, 2004. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Free-ranging lions (Panthera leo) in the Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park (KTP) have been subject to persecution by farmers following livestock depredation in adjacent grazing areas. In recent years at least one adult female was killed annually from a sub-population of five boundary prides that have home ranges adjoining these livestock grazing areas. While no long-term records of human-caused mortality are available, the impact of current rates of human-caused mortality is uncertain. Female-based, age-structured models were thus used to estimate the long-term viability of the KTP lion sub-population subjected to human-caused mortality under deterministic and stochastic environmental conditions. Population parameters incorporated in the models included age-class specific natural mortality, female fecundity and birth sex ratio. In so doing sustainable threshold rates of persecution were established, so that effective conservation measures can be taken, if required, to ensure the continued survival of boundary prides in the park. Sensitivity analyses of natural survival rates indicated that adult female survivorship is the most important population parameter with respect to maintaining population viability, compared to younger female age-classes, fecundity or birth sex ratio. Hence adults were also the most sensitive age-class with respect to human-caused mortality, as adult survival repeatedly acts upon individuals with the highest reproductive value. In the deterministic model, with the most optimistic survival parameter values, fecundity and birth sex ratio (female-biased) estimates, the sub-population is only able to sustain an annual persecution of three adult females, before the sub-population exhibits a sustained decline. In the worst-case scenario, where fecundity and sex ratio estimates are at their lower extremes, the maximum sustainable age-class specific persecution rate is zero, for all age-classes. Whilst these hypothetical scenarios are unrealistic, they do highlight the extreme thresholds of potentially sustainable persecution rates. Under the most optimistic scenario using the stochastic model, the highest achievable survival probability of the sub-population, when subjected to a persecution rate of one adult annually, was 78%. Although increased fecundity and birth sex ratio biased towards females may increase the survival probability, these parameters are generally at their mean values in the long-term, and may thus not necessarily prevent a sustained population decline. The models therefore suggest that the current persecution rate of one adult annually (or 4% of the adult sub-population), appears unsustainable in the longterm. To ensure the survival of existing boundary prides and to maintain a viable subpopulation, adult lionesses should, as far as possible, be afforded protection from persecution. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Vrylewende leeus (Panthera leo) in die Kgalagadi Oorgrenspark (KTP) is onderworpe aan vervolging deur boere as gevolg van predasie op vee in aangrensende weidingsgebiede. In onlangse jare is ten minste een volwasse wyfie uit ‘n subpopulasie van vyf troppe met loopareas wat aan die weidingsgebiede grens, jaarliks uitgewis. Geen langtermyn rekords van vrektes as gevolg van menslike oorsake is beskikbaar nie, en die impak van vrektes wat deur mense veroorsaak word, is dus onseker. Wyfie-gebaseerde, ouderdomgestruktureerde modelle is daarom gebruik om te voorspel wat die langtermyn lewensvatbaarheid is van die KTP leeu subpopulasie wat onderworpe is aan vrektes deur menslike invloede onder deterministiese en stogastiese omgewingsfaktore. Bevolkingsfaktore wat deur die modelle in ag geneem is, sluit ouderdomsgroep-spesifieke natuurlike vrektes, aanwas van wyfies en geboorte geslagsverhouding in. Sodoende is volhoubare uitwissingstempos bepaal sodat, indien nodig, effektiewe bewaringsmeganismes toegepas kan word om die voortbestaan van troppe in die grensgebiede van die park te verseker. Sensitiwiteitsanalises van natuurlike oorlewingstempos het aangetoon dat volwasse wyfies se oorlewing die belangrikste bevolkingsfaktor is om die bevolking se lewensvatbaarheid te volhou vergeleke met jonger wyfie ouderdomsgroepe, aanwas of geslagsverhouding by geboorte. Daarom was volwassenes ook die sensitiefste vir vrektes as gevolg van menslike invloede, omdat die oorlewing van volwassenes herhaaldelik inwerk op individue met die hoogste reproduktiewe waarde. In die deterministiese model met die mees optimistiese oorlewing, aanwas en geboorte verhouding (wyfie-gebasseerde) beramings, is die subpopulasie slegs in staat om ‘n jaarlikse uitwissing van drie volwasse wyfies te onderhou, voordat die sub-populasie ‘n volgehoue afname toon. In die uiterste geval waar aanwas en geslags verhouding skattings op die laagste is, is die maksimum volhoubare ouderdomsklasspesifieke beramings nul vir alle ouderdomsklasse. Terwyl hierdie hipotetiese senario’s onrealisties is, onderstreep dit die uiterste vlakke van potensiële volhoubare uitwissingstempos. Onder die mees optimistiese senario – ‘n uitwissingstempo van een volwassene jaarliks – met die gebruik van die stogastiese model, was die hoogste haalbare oorlewingswaarskynlikheid van die sub-populasie 78%. Alhoewel ‘n toename in aanwas en geboorte geslagsverhouding (met oorhelling na wyfies), ‘n toename in oorlewingswaarskynlikheid tot gevolg kan hê, is hierdie faktore oor die algemeen gemiddeld oor die langtermyn en sal dit nie noodwendig ‘n volgehoue afname in die populasie verhoed nie. Die modelle dui daarop dat die huidige uitwissingstempo van een volwassene (of 4% van die volwasse sub-populasie) op ‘n jaarlikse grondslag onvolhoubaar is oor die langtermyn. Om die oorlewing van bestaande troppe in die grensgebiede, asook ‘n lewensvatbare subpopulasie, te verseker, moet volwasse leeuwyfies so ver as moontlik teen vervolging beskerm word.

Thesis (MScFor)--Stellenbosch University, 2000. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Grobbelaar, F.R. 2000. A methodology to aid in appropriate technology decision-making for developing countries. M.Sc thesis. University of Stellenbosch. In the process of selecting what we believe to be suitable technology for timber harvesting and transport, economics are usually the determining factor, whether in the form of capital investment or personnel cost. Internationally we see a move towards mechanisation in forestry for various reasons: e.g., high wages, labour shortage, and occupational safety. The realities of South Africa highlights other issues requiring attention: e.g., high unemployment, skills' shortage, global competition, rampant AIDS pandemic, and a poor safety and security record. This should focus our attention on finding local solutions to the problem of finding suitable or appropriate technology to support South Africa's quest for sustainable development. This thesis attempts to establish a methodology for the objective evaluation of alternative technologies for a specific timber harvesting situation, considering the economic, social and environmental implications. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Grobbelaar, F.R. 2000. A methodology to aid in appropriate technology decisionmaking for developing countries. M.Sc tesis. Universiteit van Stellenbosch. Tydens die keuse van sogenaamde toepaslike tegnologie vir houtinoesting en -vervoer is ekonomie meestal die deurslaggewende faktor, hetsy verteenwoordig deur kapitaal belegging of personeelkoste. Internasionaal is daar tans In neiging na meganisasie in bosbou vir In verskeidenheid redes: bv., hoë arbeidskoste, arbeidtekort, en beroepsveiligheid. Die werklikhede van Suid-Afrika beklemtoon egter ander sake wat daadwerklike optrede vereis: nl., hoë werkloosheid, gebrek aan vaardighede, internasionale mededinging, ernstige VIGS pandemie, en In swak veiligheid-en sekuriteit rekord. Dit behoort ons aandag te fokus op die vind van plaaslike oplossings tot die probleem met die keuse van geskikte of toepaslike tegnologie ter bevordering van Suid Afrika se strewe na volhoubare ontwikkeling. Hierdie tesis poog om In metodiek te ontwikkel vir die objektiewe beoordeling van alternatiewe tegnologieë vir houtinoesting binne bepaalde omstandighede, met inagneming van ekonomiese, sosiale en omgewings implikasies.