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Abstract In Paper [I], I develop the FOR-DICE model to analyze optimal global forest carbon management. The FOR-DICE is a simple framework for assessing the role of the boreal, tropical, and temperate forests as both a source of renewable energy and a resource to sequester and store carbon. I find that forests play an important role in reducing global emissions, especially under ambitious climate targets. At the global level, efforts should focus on increasing the stock of forest biomass rather than increasing the use of the forest for bioenergy production. The results also highlight the important role of reducing tropical deforestation to reduce climate change. In Paper [II], I develop the FRICE to investigate the role of two key efforts to increase the stock of forest biomass, namely, afforestation and avoided deforestation. FRICE is a multi-regional integrated assessment model that captures the dynamics of forest carbon sequestration in a transparent way and allows me to investigate the allocation of these actions across space and time. I find that global climate policy can benefit considerably from afforestation and avoided deforestation in tropical regions, and in particular in Africa. Avoided deforestation is particularly effective in the short run while afforestation provides the largest emissions reductions in the medium run. This paper also highlights the importance of not solely relying on avoided deforestation as its capacity to reduce emissions is more limited than afforestation, especially under more stringent temperature targets. In Paper [III], we investigate how uncertainties linked to the forest affect the optimal climate policy. We incorporate parameter uncertainty on the intrinsic growth rate and climate effects on the forest by using the state-contingent approach. Our results show that forest uncertainty matters. We find that the importance of including forest in climate policy increases when the forest is subject to uncertainty. This occurs because optimal forest response allows us to reduce the costs associated with uncertainty. In Paper [IV], we explore the implications of asymmetries in climate policy arising from not recognizing forest carbon emissions and sequestration in the decision-making process. We show that not fully including carbon values associated with the forest will have large effects on different forest controls and lead to an increase in emissions, higher carbon prices, and lower welfare.  We further find, by investigating the relative importance of forest emissions compared to sequestration, that recognizing forest emissions from bioenergy and deforestation is especially important for climate policy.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T20:00:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 5313.pdf: 9782065 bytes, checksum: f270ce2e273ed5f7437941eaf648f0cb (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-06-27 / Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos / The intense greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions into the atmosphere, including Carbon Dioxide (CO2), are the main causes intensifying climate changes. According to Brazil s Forest Code, riparian forests are part of the Permanent Preservation Areas (PPAs) of water bodies, and their primary function regards their preservation, thereby contributing to biodiversity. Moreover, they contribute to minimize the greenhouse effect by promoting carbon sequestration (CO2). Thus, their preservation and/or recovery are the focal point of great concern. The objective of this study is to determine the potential for forest carbon sequestration in riparian forests of PPAs under the Unit for Water Resources Management of the Tietê-Jacaré (UGRHI 13) in the city of São Carlos SP, Brazil. The recuperation of the riparian areas was declared as high priority by the Committee of the Watershed UGRHI 13 in its Watershed Plan. Within this plan, forestry projects under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) represent an incentive for reforesting the PPAs of the water bodies of UGRHI 13 and other UGRHIs. The methodology used in this work consisted in the use of visual interpretation of satellite images, field samplings and the development of procedures to classify the degradation levels of the riparian forests into three categories: closed-canopy, open shrubland and predominantly herbaceous. The methodology also included applying a model to determine the Potential Biomass Index (PBI), estimating the carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) density, calculating the financial yield from the income of Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) for the forests in the study area, and determining the tCO2e value. For the closed canopy category, approximately 1.372 ha of PPAs with potential sequestration of 175.43tCO2e/ha were found, which would yield CDM of R$456.10 with the current price per tonne in April 2013; for the open shrubland category, approximately 1.573 ha of the PPAs, with a potential of 212.97tCO2e/ha and yield of R$553.70; and lastly, for the predominantly herbaceous category, 388 ha of PPAs, with a sequestration potential of 243.80tCO2e/ha and yield of R$633.90. This indicates that by restoring the still young and degraded forests of these PPAs, they will sequester significant amounts of carbon until they reach their maximum size. The financial revenues obtained by forest carbon sequestration would bear part of the costs of restoring the riparian forests in the PPAs. With the tCO2e values at R$26.00 for the closed canopy category, R$58.00 for the open shrubland category and R$84.00 for the predominantly herbaceous category, companies interested in offsetting their GHG emissions could buy the RECs at the values stipulated, adding their image to the carbon sequestration projects. / As intensas emissões de gases de efeito estufa (GEEs) para a atmosfera, incluindo o Dióxido de Carbono (CO2), passaram a ser o principal motivo da aceleração das mudanças climáticas. As matas ripárias fazem parte das Áreas de Preservação Permanente (APPs) de corpos d água conforme a legislação brasileira e têm como função primordial protegê-los e contribuir para a biodiversidade. Além disso, contribuem para minimizar o efeito estufa pelo sequestro de carbono (CO2) que promovem. Desse modo, tornaram-se alvo de grande preocupação no sentido da sua conservação ou recuperação. Este trabalho visou determinar o potencial de sequestro florestal de carbono em matas ripárias de APPs da Unidade de Gerenciamento de Recursos Hídricos do Tietê-Jacaré (UGRHI 13) no município de São Carlos SP. O restauro florestal das áreas de mata ripária foi indicado como prioridade maior para o Comitê de Bacia da UGRHI 13 em seu Plano de Bacia. Nesse sentido, projetos florestais no âmbito do Mecanismo de Desenvolvimento Limpo (MDL) podem se constituir em um incentivo para o restauro florestal das APPs dos corpos d água da UGRHI 13 e de outras UGRHIs. A metodologia empregada no trabalho consistiu no uso da interpretação visual de imagens de satélite, amostragens de campo e desenvolvimento de procedimentos para a classificação dos níveis de degradação das matas ripárias em três categorias: arbóreo fechado, arbóreo-arbustivo aberto e herbáceo predominante. A metodologia constituiu também da aplicação de um modelo para determinação do Índice de Biomassa Potencial (IBP), estimativa da densidade de dióxido de carbono equivalente (CO2e), cálculo do rendimento financeiro com a comercialização das Reduções de Emissões Certificadas (RECs) para as matas da área de estudo e determinação do valor da tCO2e. Para a categoria arbóreo fechado foram encontrados aproximadamente 1.372 ha de APPs com um potencial de sequestro de 175,43tCO2e/ha, que renderia pelo MDL R$456,10 com o preço da tonelada vigente em abril de 2013; para a categoria arbóreo-arbustivo aberto, aproximadamente 1.573 ha de APPs, com um potencial de 212,97tCO2e/ha e rendimento de R$553,70; e por último, para a categoria herbáceo predominante, 388 ha de APPs, com um potencial de sequestro de 243,80tCO2e/ha e rendimento de R$633,90. Isso permite concluir que com o restauro florestal dessas APPs as florestas, ainda jovens e degradadas, sequestrarão quantidades significativas de carbono até atingir o porte máximo. O rendimento financeiro obtido com o sequestro florestal de carbono arcaria parcialmente com os custos do restauro florestal das matas ripárias em APPs. Com o valor da tCO2e a R$26,00 para a categoria arbóreo fechado, R$58,00 para a categoria arbóreo-arbustivo aberto e R$84,00 para a categoria herbáceo predominante, empresas com o interesse de compensar suas emissões de GEEs poderiam comprar as RECs a estes valores estipulados, agregando sua imagem aos projetos de sequestro de carbono.