The purpose of this study was to investigate the pricing behavior between the Forest Service, the seller of national forest timber, and the firms in the Arizona timber industry, and buyers of this timber. The period of investigation was for the 1974 timber sales and the ultimate purchases of these sales through 1979. The market structure for the sale of national forest timber is one of monopoly on the part of the Forest Service and that of oligopsony for the industry. Two factors beside the market structure affect the behavior of the market participants. One, the interaction of the participants is constrained by several legal and institutional factors. Two, excess capacity exists in the industry and the supply of timber in Arizona is relatively fixed. Three methods were used in the study to analyze the behavior of the participants. First, the appraised value of the timber was compared to the residual value that could be afforded by each mill, using individual mill costs. Second, a linear transportation model was employed to determine the optimal allocation for the 1974 timber sales. The optimal results were then compared to the actual disposal for further analysis of the pricing behavior. Third, estimated profits were determined for the actual purchases of the 1974 sales and the results compared to the estimated profit allowances in the original appraisal. The results of the analysis showed the following. (1) The appraised values for the 1974 timber sales appeared to be overvalued. (2) The actual allocation of the 1974 sales was essentially optimal. The exceptions to the optimal allocations were generally where legal constraints prevented it. (3) Active bidding for the timber was minimal. Bidding among the firms included in the study occurred on slightly over 2% of the volume of the sales. The major conclusions reached from the analysis were that certain adjustments should be made in the appraisal process. These adjustments should be made for the lag effects of costs, the accuracy of imputed costs used, and the concept of profit allowance used. Also, the industry must improve its efficiency, especially in the area of utilizing the waste material from lumber production. The industry should also reduce its capacity to have a better balance between supply and demand, as supply is relatively fixed. Additionally, the behavior of the participants was determined to be as expected in view of the constraints, fixed supply, and locational factors. It is recommended that long-run study of this nature be conducted to offer more conclusive results.

This study first explored the rate of forest deforestation in Shamva resettlement areas. It then identified and estimated the extent to which these resettled farmers depend on forest for their livelihoods. Evaluation of farmer perceptions on management issues and willingness to participate in indigenous forest conservation and the socio-economic and institutional factors which affect their willingness to participate were also done. Finally the study sought to identify incentives for forests conservation. The study was conducted in Shamva district in Mashonaland Central province. And the respondents were stratified into three groups: A1, A2 and Old resettlement models. The three models differ on how they were implemented and supported which might render them to have different deforestation rates, livelihood strategies and forest dependency. A total of 247 respondents were surveyed, consisting of 98 A1 farmers, 50 A2 farmers and 99 Old resettled farmers. The data was collected using GIS and remote sensing, structured questionnaire interviews and direct observation. The data was analysed using descriptive analysis, KAP analytic framework and binary logistic regression analysis. The land cover/changes results revealed that both deforestation and afforestation are taking place in Shamva resettlement. Woodland and bushland were decreasing, croplands were also decreasing. However woodland dense and grasslands were increasing. Deforestation was found to be as a result of the resettled farmers’ livelihood strategies which were found to be diverse and agriculture being dominant in all models. All the farmers depended on the forest but at varying levels of 19 percent for Old and 14 percent forA1 and 0.02 percent for A2 resettle farmers. 84 percent of the interviewed farmers however, indicated that they are willing to conserve forest with A1 farmers being the highest followed by A2 86 percent and lastly Old resettled farmers at 76.8 percent. Results of the binary regression model revealed that the significant factors which explain willingness to participate in indigenous forest conservation are age, marital status, education, gender, institution, culture and belief, employment and household size. The highest preferred incentive was the provision of free seedlings and the lowest was out grower scheme. The study recommends that GIS and remote sensing should be used to monitor deforestation, off farm projects be encouraged, exotic and indigenous trees be promoted and forest conservation education be promoted in resettlement areas.

The practice of sustained-yield forest management requires the formulation of management plans designed to ensure the economic efficiency of the forest enterprise. Consequently a knowledge of the volume and value of timber in forest stands is of the utmost importance to foresters engaged in sustained-yield management. In this thesis an analysis of the quantity and value of the product yield from four natural stands of Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) in British Columbia has been made. Average stand ages were 63, 86, 106 and 145 years with heights at 100 years of 160, 165, 175 and 165 feet, respectively. Logging and milling costs for what is regarded as typical coastal British Columbia operations were derived from the literature and from local sources. Lumber yields and values presented were obtained from the results of four mill studies of sample logs from the above stands. Value and volume of plywood and piling products obtainable were ascertained from the literature and from local sources. Linear programming techniques were used to determine the optimum joint-product yield from each of the stands. Financial rotations at two levels of establishment costs, and three interest rates, were examined and mathematical models of the relationship between tree value, tree volume and biological variables are presented. It was found that the net value per cubic foot of tree increased with tree size because of reduced handling costs per unit volume and better quality yield in the larger trees. At the level of costs and values used, and within limits of grade specifications, it is more profitable to produce piling from small trees, and plywood from large trees, rather than lumber. The linear programming solution to optimum product yield indicated that optimum conversion return for all stands was 5 cents per cubic foot greater than the lumber conversion return. Financial rotations, at 3 per cent compound interest on establishment costs and on the value of the growing stock, are between 60 and 70 years for these sites. At 65 years the margin for profit and risk in these stands varied from $1400 to $2000 per acre, increasing with degree of stocking. An increase in establishment costs did not affect the rotation age but reduced the net value per acre of the stand. Increasing the interest rate reduced both the rotation age and the net value per acre of the stand. Many biological variables were found to be significantly correlated with tree value and volume. However, regression models using only two or three variables were statistically as good as, and, from a practical point of view, much better than more involved models. Combinations of dbh, butt-log grade and crown class were the best two or three variable models for value prediction. Tree dbh and D²H rendered similar estimates of board-and cubic-foot volumes. It is considered that the volume and value of timber from these sites could be substantially increased by intensive forest management and complete utilisation of the productive capacity of the land. / Forestry, Faculty of / Graduate

Estimation of soundwood volume and value is particularly important in British Columbia because nearly half of the forests are overmature or decadent. The objective of this thesis was to develop analytical techniques to define distribution of gross and net volumes within individual standing trees in order that appropriate reductions for decay could be made for estimates of volumes of logs of specified sizes and grades. Relationships of heartrot to stand and tree characteristics and to external abnormalities were analysed for 369 western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla (Rafn.) Sarg.) trees from the Yale Public Sustained Yield Unit in British Columbia. Comprehensive sorting, correlation and regression analyses were carried out on an I. B. M. 7044 electronic computer. One multiple regression equation provided estimates of total decay volume within individual trees from DBH, total height and external indicators of decay. It had a standard error of estimated decay volume of 18.7 cubic feet (19.5 per cent). A second equation estimated decay volume within individual logs in standing trees from the above variables and from section height. It had standard errors of estimate ranging from 13.7 cubic feet (31.6 per cent) in butt logs to 0.1 cubic feet (2.9 per cent) in top logs. The best taper function which could be derived to estimate upper stem diameters inside bark had a standard error of estimate of 1.29 inches using measures of DBH and total height. Combination of the log and tree decay estimating functions and the taper function facilitated complete description of the soundwood volumes in the sample of 369 trees. A graphical analysis was developed whereby percentages of trees in a stand with more or less than specified decay volumes could be estimated. Preliminary chemical studies of western hemlock wood infected with Echinodontium tinetorium E. and E. indicated that cellulose yields were slightly less than those from soundwood. Such partly decayed wood might be used for the manufacture of pulp without serious reductions in yield on a volume or weight basis. Further research is needed to substantiate the possible cyclic nature of decay losses and to determine the influence of bark thickness and natural pruning on the distribution of decay within individual trees. Application of the analytical techniques developed for western hemlock to other species should result in more precise estimates of soundwood volumes and values, thereby contributing to improved management planning and utilization. / Forestry, Faculty of / Graduate

Sustained yield forest management has been widely accepted as a major objective of forestry. It implies continuous production of forest crops with the aim of achieving, at the earliest practicable time, an approximate balance between net growth and harvest, either by annual or somewhat longer periods. The concept, introduced to North America by European foresters at the end of the 19th century, has become an important component of public policy for forestry and conservation. History of sustained yield forest management, its role in conservation philosophy, and its economic advantages and disadvantages, as well as alternatives, are discussed. Evolution of sustained yield management and its application in British Columbia are described. Many advantages have been claimed for sustained yield forest management as an alternative to unregulated liquidation of resources. Yet preservation of forests for the benefit of future generations, amelioration of uncertainty in forestry enterprises, protection of social values, stabilisation of communities, and provision of regular incomes, cannot, themselves, justify unconditional acceptance of sustained yield. Sustained yield forest management emphasizes stability and continuity of production but neglects economic values of the resource. It may even retard economic growth and development. By using physical rather than economic criteria to set goals for forest management, sustained yeild often causes the net present worth of the forest resource to fall short of its maximum potential value. Although sustained yield policy aims at stability, the inability of entrepreneurs to respond to cyclical changes in economic activity may actually lead to instability in stumpage prices and forest revenues. The rational forest owner should only practise sustained yield forest management if it will achieve his objectives in the most efficient manner. Forest owners should always consider alternatives to sustained yield. Benefits must be analysed in relation to costs. Forest management planning also can be improved by linear programming and decision theory techniques as illustrated herein. It is suggested that in British Columbia sustained yield forest management has become so firmly established that alternative policies are seldom considered. Rigid application of sustained yield principles forms an effective barrier to maximization of the social value of the Provincial forest resource. Opportunities for expansion of lumber and plywood industries are being curtailed, and inadequate attention has been given to planning of the transition from old growth to second growth stands of Douglas fir. Despite its emphasis on "perpetual yields of wood of commercially usable quality from regional areas in yearly or periodic quantities of equal or increasing volume", forest management in British Columbia has neglected urgent needs for improved reforestation. After a thorough examination of its implications for British Columbia, it is concluded that sustained yield must be rejected as a universal goal of forest management. Sustained yield forest management should always be compared to other alternatives and be fully justified on economic and social grounds before it is accepted. / Forestry, Faculty of / Graduate

Government funding for silviculture in British Columbia has expanded recently, but remains well short of the level recommended by many foresters. This thesis contains a proposal to replace government funding with investment from capital markets. It describes the funding mechanism, analyzes the implications to government, and introduces a method of distributing investment funds through a system of competitive bidding between forest management companies. In return for their participation, investors and forest companies would both receive equity in future timber production. The thesis concludes that at a cost of foregoing 50% of its future stumpage revenue, government might replace its current spending on intensive forest management with a funding level from capital markets of $500 million to $800 million per year. / Forestry, Faculty of / Graduate

M. S.

Systematic conservation planning (SCP) relies fundamentally on spatial information about the distribution of biodiversity, and applying the principles of conserving a representative sample of biodiversity pattern that can persist over time, and the translation of conservation objectives into explicit quantitative targets. My thesis focuses on the development of appropriate data sets to include Mpumalanga Province’s indigenous forests (South Africa) within a regional SCP. My aim is to investigate and describe forest pattern and ecological processes at appropriate scales to inform a provincial SCP assessment. A large data set consisting of 506 plots of 20 m x 20 m sampled the indigenous forests in and around Mpumalanga to inform the identification of SCP forest features and conservation targets. The current National Forest Classification (NFC) identifies forest types at a national scale, inappropriate for a regional assessment. I identified a hierarchy of forest subtypes, nested within the NFC based on Flexible beta (β = –0.25) clustering and Bray-Curtis resemblance measure. This classification procedure is selected after a detailed evaluation of available methods to identify a robust numerical classification technique, optimising on statistically identified faithful species. Fourteen forest subtypes are distinguished within three national forest types. I propose that the Wakkerstroom Midlands Forest Subtype be embedded within the Northern Highveld Forest Type, and not the Low Escarpment Mistbelt Forest Type as is currently recognised in the NFC. The proposed forest subtypes are described in terms of dominant plant families and genera, growth forms, seasonality or leaf retention characteristics, and the proportion of forest dependant species. A total of 125 plant families, 375 genera and 619 species are identified to occur in the Mpumalanga forests, with the most abundant species per family being Rubiaceae (33 plant species), Fabaceae (26), Celastraceae (25), Orchidaceae (23), Euphorbiaceae (22), Aspleniaceae (21) and Apocynaceae (20). 76% of all forest plant species are obligate forest species and 80% of all tree cover is evergreen. The identification and understanding of underlying ecological processes is informed by the analysis of three scales of environmental variables and geographic space on forest composition using variation partitioning and ordination. I propose the application of semivariogram analysis to categorise environmental variables into three scales of influence (local, regional and supra-regional scales). The largest fraction of variation is explained by the regional variables (45%), followed by the effects of supra-regional (21%) and local variables (19%). Using the full floristic data, both the environmental and geographic variable matrices accounted for 55% of observed variation. Geographic space (23%) partially explains the important role of dispersal in influencing variation in species patterns across all forest strata, even in the herbaceous stratum where the substantial contribution of dispersal is unexpected. My analysis provides insight into the relative contributions of environmental variables and the scale of their influence, and highlights the importance of dispersal in explaining forest vegetation patterns in Mpumalanga. The use of ecological processes within SCP is still in its infancy, particularly in light of the threat of climate change. I propose a new method based on graph theory that incorporates dispersal distance to identify connectivity importance values for each forest patch based on their contribution towards landscape connectivity. Minimum patch distance is informed through a dispersal range ensuring 75% of flora can disperse between patches. The connectivity analysis supports resilience and persistence in SCP scenarios. Finally I needed to set quantitative targets for the pattern and process features for their inclusion within a SCP. With an overarching goal of ensuring that at least 75% of all species are represented by at least one individual within each forest subtype in a SCP, I utilised the Species Area Relationship (SAR) to determine the slope of the relationship and to estimate the proportion of area required to represent 75% of species. The number of plots in my data set was low for certain forest subtypes, which necessitated an approach of utilising highest values from estimators of species richness and integrating forest subtype targets with those for forest types of a higher level in the NFC. I integrate forest connectivity into pattern targets as a precautionary approach given the vulnerability of naturally disconnected forest patches and the importance of emigration and immigration of plant diaspores in maintaining forest composition across a network of small forest patches. The resulting forest pattern targets ranged between 24.9% and 49.7% for forest subtypes, with a mean value of 34.8%. I also propose forest process targets for more spatially fixed processes, such as the important forest patches supporting connectivity, as well as the spatially flexible buffers around each priority forest patch. Spatially fixed forest process targets are set at 100% and for spatially flexible forest processes the targets are set at 60% of original extent. Consideration also needs to be given to design criteria that can assist in developing a framework for prioritising conservation actions based on vulnerability and irreplaceability.

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Transportation costs of commercial forestry farms in South Africa are generally very high, causing great economic concern. The current roads of the majority of commercial farms, used to transport timber from the compartments to the market (mill), form part of a 'cob-web', high density network. In order to optimise transportation, it is beneficial to eradicate such a high density of road, achieved by adopting the most effective methods and technology. Such methods include that of Route Network Analysis (RNA) which designs a minimalist, yet cost-effective road pattern of a forestry farm. The aim of the study was to determine what data are required to optimise economic and timber transportation, based on the commercial forestry farm of Ntonjaneni, located in Zululand, KwaZulu-Natal. Route Network Analysis, which incorporates Geographical Information Systems (GIS) in addition to the current information pertaining to a network, was applied to the Ntonjaneni Farm. The existing data consisted of cadastral shapefile data containing relative attribute data, as well as Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), which were manipulated in order to create a realistic spatial representation of the farm's current transportation network. In addition, the development of project management guidelines to assist the efficient implementation and completion of the analysis was undertaken. The most ideal route from the plantations to the mill was created, avoiding the environmentally buffered rivers and those slopes which were too steep. As a result, the network was greatly improved. The irrelevant roads were removed, and replaced with a less dense route for timber transportation. The results of the RNA reveal that RNA, completed by the project management guidelines, is an effective and environmentally sound means of optimising commercial forestry transportation. However, data relating to the rivers and road slope need to be updated in order for RNA to be effectively performed during future studies. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, 2005.