Environmental degradation of the Chesapeake Bay (CB) and its sub-estuaries has been linked to population growth in the surrounding coastal zone, rapid development in the watershed and resultant nutrient loading into the Bay. Consequently, the federal government and its partners have developed restoration plans to mitigate the effects of eutrophication and improve essential ecosystem functions, though few restoration plans have considered the interactive effects of climate change. Climate change and other anthropogenic drivers are causing changes in ecosystem structure and function, thereby impacting the beneficial services ecosystems provide. While some studies have attempted to quantitatively predict the benefits of ecosystem restoration under current conditions, research is needed to determine whether restored systems will be sustainable and continue to provide ecosystem services under changing conditions. This study examined how climate warming and sea level rise (SLR) might affect the sustainability of ecosystem services resulting from the proposed U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Lynnhaven River Basin Ecosystem Restoration Plan (LRBERP). A system-wide prediction of marsh survival in the Lynnhaven was calculated by estimating the time period when Spartina alterniflora (smooth cordgrass) would submerge based on predicted sea level rise and marsh accretion for the region. In addition, a reduced complexity ecosystem model was applied to the Lynnhaven River to evaluate survival and sustainability of ecosystem services provided by S. alterniflora, Zostera marina (eelgrass), Ruppia maritima (widgeon grass), and Crassostrea virginica (Eastern oyster) reef habitat, under existing conditions as well as predicted climate warming (+1, 2, 3, and 5 °C) and sea level rise (+0.49, 0.99, 1.69, 2.29 m) scenarios for the region. The major findings from the model simulations and marsh analysis indicate that climate warming and SLR will affect the sustainability and capacity of restored submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV), oysters and marsh habitat to provide ecosystem services in the Lynnhaven River. This investigation calls into question the assumption that marshes will accrete indefinitely to keep pace with accelerating rates of sea level rise. Predicted submergence of S. alterniflora marshes by 2100 will limit their capacity to provide ecosystem services. Model predictions of S. alterniflora biomass decreased across the temperature scenarios with complete die-off under the +5°C scenario. Z. marina and R. maritima biomass decreased across the SLR scenarios with complete die-off of R. maritima under the 0.49 m scenario. This modeling result is consistent with the literature that R. maritima is more sensitive to light limitation than Z. marina. Z. marina biomass decreased across the temperature scenarios with complete die-off under the 5°C scenario whereas R. maritima biomass increased under the temperature scenarios. The positive effects of warming on R. maritima were offset by the negative impacts from SLR. There was a complete die-off of Z. marina and R. maritima biomass under the combined SLR/temperature scenario. The combination of stressors will likely have negative effects on Z. marina and R. maritima biomass in the polyhaline section of the Bay.

Many recent studies have sought to understand the response of barrier islands and their attendant marshes to sea level rise. The Mississippi River delta plain, specifically the Chandeleur Islands and associated interior wetlands in eastern Louisiana, serves as an excellent natural laboratory for studying these responses. This region is presently undergoing the highest rates of shoreline erosion (> 15 m yr -1) in North America as wetlands are converted to open water in a regime of subsidence-driven rapid relative sea-level rise (~1 cm yr-1). Three conceptual models were developed based on the geomorphic relationships observed in the marsh that describe and predict shoreline processes as the Chandeleur Islands continue to disintegrate and submerge. These models indicate that shells are the dominant shoreline-forming material in the marsh due to the lack of sand-rich strata in the subsurface of the marsh.

Secretion of mucus by epidermal goblet cells is an important first line of defense for teleosts. It protects them against many of the biological, physical and chemical insults they encounter in their environment. This project monitored changes in hemoglobin concentration in epidermal mucus and in the density, diameter and mucus quality of epidermal goblet cells in the mummichog, Fundulus heteroclitus, following exposure to creosote-contaminated sediment. Male fish (200) were exposed for 13 days in flowthough aquaria to either an uncontaminated reference sediment or contaminated sediment containing 30% Elizabeth River sediment. Fish were sampled on Days 0, 3, 7 and 13. The hemoglobin content of their mucus was assessed using a commercial hemoglobin test strip. Their condition index was determined and a portion of their ventral skin was mounted after sequential staining by alcian blue and periodic acid Schiff s reagent. The proportion of the mucin types present in the goblet cells, differentiated by the stains, was determined using light microscopy (600x). The aromatic compound concentrations in test aquaria effluents decreased significantly during the experiment, probably as a result of a reduction in resuspension of the sediment by the fish. The condition index was lower and the mortality rate and occurrence of epidermal lesions were higher in the treated fish than in the control fish. The hemoglobin content in the epidermal mucus of treated fish was significantly higher than in control fish. Significant reductions in both size and density of goblet cells observed in treated fish suggested a mucus secretion rate exceeding its production rate. Significant variations in mucin types occurred in both treatments, most likely as a result of the transfer of the fish from the holding tank to the experimental aquaria. Significant changes in mucin types between treatments did not occur until Day 13 and are not believed to be directly related to the creosote present in the treatment sediment.

Shoreline hardening and construction of restoration oyster reefs are occurring at rapid rates throughout Chesapeake Bay and little research has been conducted to determine whether installment of a hardened shoreline and oyster reef placement has an effect on the surrounding benthic infaunal communities. I investigated the effects of shoreline development and oyster reefs on benthic communities in Lynnhaven, Virginia. Throughout Lynnhaven, I determined the effects of shoreline type (natural marsh, oyster reef, rip-rap and bulkhead), sediment grain size, Total Organic Carbon/Total Nitrogen (TOC/TN) of the sediment, and predation (caging study) on density, biomass, and diversity of benthic infauna. An information-theoretic approach using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) was used. Of the variables measured, shoreline type was the best predictor of benthic infaunal density (highest density at oyster reefs and lowest at bulkheads), while sediment composition (grain size and TOC/TN) and predators were the best predictors of biomass and diversity. Lynnhaven is a polyhaline, shallow, semienclosed, natural marsh-dominated system with high overall productivity, which could be masking any small-scale disturbances due to shoreline hardening at the sites. A Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) study was completed at two sites (Eastern Branch and Linkhorn Bay) in Lynnhaven to examine the benthos before and after placement of oyster reefs. Replicate samples for benthic infauna, sediment grain size, and sediment TOC/TN were taken before and one year after reef placement. Based on the AIC analysis, oyster reefs had a positive effect on infaunal density at the Linkhorn Bay site after one year, mainly attributed to an influx of the bivalve Gemma gemma. The density increase occurred even with a decrease in polychaete density. There was no change in infaunal biomass or diversity at this site. At the Eastern Branch site, there was no effect of oyster reefs on density, biomass, or diversity. To characterize the benthos prior to reef placement, benthic samples were collected at two sites (Eastern Branch and Linkhorn Bay) in Lynnhaven. Four reef types (oyster shell, rip-rap, concrete modules, and reef ball) were deployed at both sites. Oyster production values for existing oyster reefs were used to estimate expected oyster production on each reef type. Biomass estimates and published P:B ratios for each taxa were used to calculate secondary production for benthic infauna and oysters. Lost benthic production due to each reef type at both sites was compared to estimated oyster production on each reef type to determine if each reef compensated for benthic production lost by placing the reefs on top of the benthos. Oyster production on oyster shell and reef ball reefs compensated for benthic production lost due to placement of the reefs at both sites. Oyster productivity on rip-rap and concrete module reefs did not compensate for lost benthic production at the highly productive Eastern Branch site, and barely compensated for lost benthos at the lower productivity Linkhorn Bay site. The preservation of natural marsh and use of the proper types of oyster reefs could help maintain the high productivity of both the benthic community and the Lynnhaven system itself.

The research projects presented in this dissertation used multiple tagging technologies to examine the movements, growth, and mortality rates of summer flounder tagged and released in Chesapeake Bay. In the first two chapters, I used acoustic, archival, and conventional tags to examine the behavior of summer flounder on different spatial scales. Investigating the movement behavior of individuals on different scales is an important step towards understanding how large-scale distributions of a population are established. Based on the observed behaviors of summer flounder, I hypothesize that the movements of these fish are primarily related to foraging behavior while they are resident in Chesapeake Bay. In the third chapter, I use growth models to investigate hypotheses regarding recreational angler noncompliance with minimum size regulations in Virginia. Angler noncompliance with management regulations can severely degrade the ability of fishery managers to prevent overexploitation of fish populations. Using a growth model fit to recreational angler mark-recapture data, I demonstrate that recreational anglers in Virginia responded to changes in summer flounder management regulations, but considerable levels of noncompliance were detected in years when management agencies drastically increased the minimum size regulations. In the final chapter, I attempt to estimate natural and fishing mortality rates of summer flounder using conventional mark-recapture data collected by an angler tagging program. These mortality rates were estimated using a Barker model, which is a generalization of the Cormack-Jolly-Seber tagging model. Results from this study indicated that sublegal summer flounder experience different emigration or mortality processes than do larger fish. Furthermore, handling and tagging mortality rates of summer flounder were much larger than the recreational discard mortality rate currently used in the stock assessment, implying that the recreational discard mortality rate should be reexamined. The research presented in this dissertation provides information that could be used by management agencies to further understand the behavior of summer flounder, and how to most effectively manage this population.

The index-removal method estimates abundance, exploitation and catchability coefficient, given surveys conducted before and after a known removal. The method assumes a closed population between surveys. Index-removal has seldom been applied due to its strong assumption of constant survey catchabilities. This work generalizes the method to allow multiple years of data to be incorporated, and the assumptions of the original model to be relaxed. If catchability is constant across years, precision can be improved by analyzing multi-year data simultaneously. Two multiple-year models were developed: the first, 1qIR, assumes constant catchability within and among years; the second, 2qIR, allows catchability to change between surveys within years, but assumes survey-specific catchability constant across years. The new models were tested by Monte Carlo simulation then applied to data from two southern rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) populations. The 1qIR model produced reasonable estimates in one application, but the 2qIR model was required to produce reasonable estimates for the second population. A likelihood ratio test found 1qIR to be the most parsimonious model, even when, the assumption of constant survey catchability appeared to be violated. In that case, diagnostic plots suggested that the 2qIR model provided the most reliable estimates. However, when the constant catchability assumption is tenable, the 1qIR model offers the greatest precision for parameter estimates. Size- and sex-specific heterogeneity of catchability introduces bias in model estimates. Field experiments were performed to test whether the catchability of small lobster was constant for southern rock lobster during two seasons when fishing occurs. No evidence of heterogeneous catchability was observed during the spring. However, significantly more small lobster were caught in control traps and traps seeded with one large adult male lobster than were caught in traps seeded with one large adult female during the summer, when females are preparing to molt and reproduce in Tasmania. Because heterogeneous catchability occurred during the summer, but not the spring, an index of recruitment based on the catch of lobsters one molt size below legal size might be developed for the spring, however, more sampling is needed to resolve the annual timing of sex- and size-specific catchability changes.

No description available.

An investigation into the carbon dynamics and weathering processes occurring in Icelandic glacial-fed streams was conducted during the spring to summer seasonal transition in June of 2017. Four major outlet rives were sampled from the glaciers of Gígjökull, Steinsholtsjökull, Sólheimajökull, and Falljökull. Markarfljót, the major river that Gígjökull, Steinsholtsjökull, and many other glaciers drain into, was also sampled. Longitudinal sampling occurred at all sites to capture downstream trends in the hydrogeochemistry and carbon dynamics. Distinct differences in geochemistry between glacier surface meltwater, sub-glacial waters, pro-glacial lake water, and post-mixed downstream samples were evident in the data. Glacier surface streams were characterized by relatively colder water temperatures, lower specific conductivity, lower total dissolved solids (TDS) and ion concentrations, and more enriched δ13CDIC values than downstream samples. The THINCARB model was used to calculate the total dissolved inorganic carbon (TDIC), excess partial pressure of carbon dioxide (EpCO2), and percent contribution to TDIC by bicarbonate (HCO3), carbonate (CO3), and carbonic acid and dissolved CO2 (H2CO3). All sites showed a slight decreasing trend in DIC and EpCO2 downstream. The calculated CO2 flux ranged from 1.14 × 107 g/yr to 2.80 × 109 g/yr. The DIC flux ranged from 6.81 × 107 g/yr to 8.44 × 109 g/yr. The average carbon within the CO2 fluxing in these rivers accounts for 0.0004% of the annual, global flux of carbon. The δ13C values were the most variable throughout the study and indicate there are multiple sources influencing the river downstream. This study suggests that, despite previous assumptions and estimations, these glacial-fed rivers act as sources of CO2; however, the samples from this study only provide a snapshot into the carbon flux dynamics during the Spring to Summer seasonal transition. In most samples, HCO3 was the dominant species contributing to DIC content within the rivers, suggesting that DIC is being transported to the ocean as HCO3 but sourced to the atmosphere as CO2. By acting as sources of CO2 to the atmosphere, the process of glaciers melting, which drive geochemical processes within the rivers, are contributing to a positive feedback loop with respect to global warming.

The Sierra Nevada snowpack is vital to the water supply of California, the world’s sixth largest economy. Though tree ring and instrumental records show the dramatic influence of environmental change on California’s hydroclimate over the last millennium, few proxy archives assess winter precipitation variability farther back in time. Here, we use diatoms from a ~3,200 yr. old sediment core to reconstruct the paleolimnology of June Lake, a hydrologically closed glacial lake in the eastern Sierra Nevada. We test the hypothesis that limnologic and climatic changes control diatom assemblages at June Lake. Fossil diatom assemblages from June Lake sediments chiefly consist of the planktic genera Stephanodiscus and Lindavia; their relative abundances in sediments are controlled by lake response to changes in the length of the winter season. We establish a Lindavia:Stephanodiscus index to infer winter length; our results indicate three periods where winter seasons are longer than average: ~3.2-2.9 ka, ~2.2-1.7 ka, and ~0.6 ka-0.05 ka. Over the last ~100 yrs., June Lake has experienced stronger water column stratification and an expansion of the available benthic diatom habitat, indicating significantly warmer winters and lower lake levels. It is possible that this change is the result of anthropogenic climate warming.

Water managers throughout the world are challenged with managing scarce resources and therefore rely heavily on forecasts to allocate and meet various water demands. The need for improved streamflow and snowpack forecast models is of the utmost importance. In this research, the use of oceanic and atmospheric variables as predictors was investigated to improve the long lead-time (three to nine months) forecast of streamflow and snowpack. Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis was used to identify a region of Pacific and Atlantic Ocean SSTs and a region of 500 mbar geopotential height (Z500mb) that were teleconnected with streamflow and snowpack. The resulting Pacific and Atlantic Ocean SSTs and Z500mb regions were used to create indices that were then used as predictors in a non-parametric forecasting model. The majority of forecasts resulted in positive statistical skill, which indicated an improvement of the forecast over the climatology or no-skill forecast. The results indicated that derived indices from SSTs were better suited for long lead-time (six to nine month) forecasts of streamflow and snowpack while the indices derived from Z500mb improved short lead-time (3 month) forecasts. In all, the results of the forecast model indicated that incorporating oceanic-atmospheric climatic variability in forecast models can lead to improved forecasts for both streamflow and snowpack.