I use a unique dataset of 1,808 mutual fund manager replacements to study the determinants and the subsequent impact of the choice between hiring the successor from within (internal hire) and outside (external hire) the fund family. I find that fund families prefer to replace their top performers with internal hires and bottom performers with external hires. External hires demonstrate superior ability to turn around bottom performing funds, but exhibit inferior ability to maintain the record of top performing funds. I find no cross-sectional difference in post-replacement performance between internal and external successors, indicating fund families, in general, make their replacement decisions optimally. I do, however, find that funds that deviate from the optimal decision have subsequent sub-par performance. Overall, the evidence suggests that portfolio managers play a pivotal role in determining mutual fund performance.

Master-Arbeit Univ. St. Gallen, 2008.

In this dissertation I examine mutual fund performance from the points of view of three distinct, but interrelated parties: individual investors, financial advisors, and the boards of directors of mutual fund companies. In the first essay, "Comparing Fund Flow Sensitivity for Load and No-Load Funds Under Different Market States," I compare the flow-performance sensitivity of no-load funds and the three main classes of load fund shares, assuming investment advisors are more likely to guide the decision-making process of load fund investors. I find that load investors are more sensitive to raw fund return than are no-load investors. The flow to performance relation increases during good market states, but portfolios formed from the top performing funds after good market years actually tend to underperform during the following three years. In the second essay, "Mutual Fund Performance and Board Characteristics Relating to Manager Terminations," I examine the timing of the decision to replace fund managers. I find that while returns and flows improve for those funds which replace their managers, very similar improvement is found in funds which do not terminate their managers. However, for mutual fund boards which do choose to replace a poorly performing manager, stronger board governance characteristics are associated with a greater probability of early replacement. In the third essay, "Mutual Fund Performance in Extreme Market States," I examine performance of actively managed mutual funds separately for good and bad states of the market to test whether mutual funds perform differently under different market conditions. I find that the sample of funds performs 2.3 percentage points better in good states over bad on a risk adjusted basis. I also analyze the performance of mutual funds by assuming individual funds are part of a larger, more complete portfolio. The performance of the portfolios closely matches that of the individual funds.

Abstract Recently, domestic mutual fund development was rapidly. As widely open door for foreign investment and mutual fund joining stock market, its structure starts slowly changing. Via different kinds of expansion and merger let The properties of companies tend to complex. Investors sometimes hardly make correction decision. Here just focus on mutual funds which are belong to common stock type to observe the existence of herding trade. And then check the relation between performance roll drift and herding trade in mutual funds. Usually known how to select funds is performance roll. And general one likes to choose No. 1 which may be myth. Actually No. 1 fund sometimes put heavy weight on particular stock. So it might temporary catch head. But it does not gain steady return. Then selecting steady head group is more important. Is it true? Investment companies may issue several funds. During inside discuss between funds managers could influence stock holding. Even though information spread speed could have different between crowd and investment com- panies, they are all affected by outside. So call hedging is mean that follows market behavior to cow buy or bear sell. If the choice of funds holding stocks follows other funds, perform- ance roll will random shift. Then using it to judge funds selection would not be reliable. The major are common stock type mutual funds belong to Taiwan mutual fund perform- ance. Draw funds front 20 and rear 20 and define them as winner and loser. Check their stock ownerships correlation, herding coefficient and drift phenomenon in certain period. During time set, find winner and loser have preference to keep some group stocks. In co- mparsion with entire common stocks funds, herding values in winner and loser are not so obviously different with zero. Loser group drift to winner side when values are more different with zero. In certain period, there is high drift ration which change performance roll list. Keyword: hedging¡Bfund performance¡Bwinner¡Bloser

This dissertation presents five research essays evaluating the performance of managed funds in light of the investment strategy and manager characteristics exhibited by institutional investment companies. An analysis of investment performance with respect to a fund managers strategy provides important information in determining whether performance objectives have been achieved. There are a number of different types of investment strategies managed funds may adopt. However, the primary dichotomy is on the basis of whether the portfolio manager implements either an active or index approach. Active managers attempt to outperform the market through the use of price-sensitive information, whereas a passive manager's objective is to replicate the returns and risk of a target benchmark index. The evaluation of investment manager characteristics is also evaluated. This is motivated on the basis that asset management entities place significant emphasis on both the articulation and differentiation of their investment style relative to competitors, and selling the strengths of their portfolio management skills (in terms of past performance) as well identifying the key individuals comprising their investment team and their unique attributes. For active equity managers, the methods used in constructing portfolios and implementing the investment strategy include security selection, in terms of 'top-down' or 'bottom-up' strategies, value-biased, growth-biased or style-neutral strategies, and portfolios exhibiting market capitalisation biases (i.e. preferences to large or small-cap securities). In terms of active bond portfolio management, the most common strategies include duration management and yield curve positioning. Active managers' strategies are likely to extend beyond stock selection, in particular, where the fund manager adjusts the portfolio's composition in anticipation of favourably capitalising on future movements in the market. For index managers, replication of both the returns and risk of the underlying index may be achieved through either full-replication of constituent stocks comprising the index, or through non-replication techniques (stratified sampling and/or optimisation). Each essay provides a unique contribution to the literature with respect to the performance of active and index funds, as well as an analysis of funds that invest specifically in domestic equities, domestic fixed interest, and diversified funds that invest across the broad spectrum of asset classes. The origins of the performance evaluation literature are ascribed to Cowles' (1933) pioneering work, and the literature has given increasing attention to the topic. However the most fundamental issue considered in almost all previous studies of managed fund performance is the extent to which actively managed portfolios have earned superior risk-adjusted excess returns for investors. The literature has overwhelmingly documented (with a small number of exceptions) that active funds have been unable to earn superior returns, either before or after expenses (e.g. Jensen (1968), Elton et al. (1993), Malkiel (1995), Gruber (1996)). While the international evidence is supported by the few Australian managed fund studies available, Australian research remains surprisingly scarce. This is perplexing considering the sheer size of the investment industry in Australia (around $A717 billion as at 30 June 2001) and the importance placed on the sector with respect to successive Federal Governments' retirement income policies. The objectives of this dissertation therefore involve an analysis of managed fund performance with respect to differences in investment strategies (i.e. active and index), as well as providing an analysis of funds invested in equities, bonds and diversified asset classes (or multi-sector portfolios). The first essay evaluates the market timing and security selection capabilities of Australian pooled superannuation funds. These funds provide institutional investors with exposure to securities across many different asset classes, including domestic and international equities, domestic and international fixed interest, property and cash. Surprisingly, the specific analysis of multi-sector funds is scarce in the literature and limited to Brinson et al. (1986, 1991), Sinclair (1990), and Blake et al. (1999). This essay also evaluates performance for the three largest asset classes within diversified superannuation funds and their contribution to overall portfolio return. The importance of an accurately specified market portfolio proxy in the measurement of investment performance is demonstrated, where the essay employs performance benchmarks that account for the multi-sector investment decisions of active investment managers in a manner that is consistent with their unique investment strategy. This approach rectifies Sinclair's (1990) analysis resulting from benchmark misspecification. Consistent with the literature, the empirical results indicate that Australian pooled superannuation funds do not exhibit significantly positive security selection or market timing skill. Given the evidence in the literature surrounding the inability of active funds to deliver superior returns to investors, lower cost index funds have become increasingly popular as an alternative investment strategy. Despite the significant growth in index funds since 1976, when the first index mutual fund was launched in the U.S., research on their performance is sparse in the U.S. and non-existent in Australia. The second essay provides an original analysis of the Australian index fund market, with specific analysis applicable to institutional Australian equity index funds offered by fund managers. While indexing is theoretically straightforward, in practice there exist potential difficulties in exactly matching the return of the underlying index. Therefore the magnitude of tracking error is likely to be of concern to investors. This essay documents the existence of significant tracking error for Australian index funds, where the magnitude of the difference between index fund returns and index returns averages between 7.4 and 22.3 basis points per month for funds operating at least five years. However, there is little evidence of bias in tracking error, implying that these funds neither systematically outperform or underperform their benchmark on a before cost basis. Further analysis documents that the magnitude of tracking error is related to fund cash flows, market volatility, transaction costs and index replication strategies used by passive investment managers. The third essay presents evidence of the performance of U.S. mutual funds, where attention is given to both active and index mutual funds for which the applicable benchmark index is the S&P 500. This essay examines both the magnitude and variation of tracking error over time for S&P 500 index mutual funds. The essay documents seasonality in S&P 500 index mutual fund tracking error, where tracking error is significantly higher in the months of January and May, together with a seasonal trough in the quarters ending March-June-September-December. Statistical evidence indicates tracking error is both positively and significantly correlated with the dividend payments arising from constituent S&P 500 securities. In terms of a performance comparison between actively managed and index funds, active funds on average are found to significantly underperform passive benchmarks. On the other hand, S&P 500 index mutual funds earned higher risk-adjusted excess returns after expenses than large capitalisation-oriented active mutual funds in the period examined. These results suggest the S&P 500 is consistent with capital market efficiency, implying an absence of economic benefit accruing to the average investor utilising actively managed U.S. equity mutual funds. The fourth essay presented in the dissertation examines the performance of Australian investment management organisations with direct reference to their specific characteristics and strategies employed. Using a unique information source, performance is evaluated for actively managed institutional balanced funds (or diversified asset class funds), Australian share funds and Australian bond funds. Performance is evaluated with respect to the investment strategy adopted, the experience and qualifications held by investment professionals, and the tenure of the key investment professionals. This essay also evaluates the performance of senior sector heads to determine the skills of individuals driving the investment process, even though these individuals may migrate to competitor organisations. The essay finds evidence that a significant number of active Australian equity managers earned superior risk-adjusted returns in the period, however active managers perform in line with market indices for balanced funds and Australian bond funds. A number of manager characteristics are also found to predict risk-adjusted excess returns, systematic risk and investment expenses. Of particular note, performance of balanced funds is negatively related to the institution's age and the loyalty of non-senior investment staff. Performance is also found to be significantly higher for managers that predominantly operate their portfolios using a bottom-up, stock selection approach. Interestingly, the human capital of managers, measured as the years of tertiary education undertaken, does not explain risk-adjusted excess returns. Systematic risk is positively related to an institutions age and negatively related to both senior manager loyalty and the implementation of bottom-up portfolio management strategies. In terms of management expenses, fees are directly related to the Australian equities benchmark allocation, the years of tertiary education, the number of years service (loyalty) for non-senior investment professionals and the total years experience of senior money managers. This concluding essay also documents that changes in top management have significant performance effects. In the 12-month period after a change in fixed income director or chief investment officer, performance is significantly lower and significantly higher, respectively. There is no significant difference in performance where changes in top management occur for Australian equities. The years of service (loyalty) provided to asset management firms by equities directors is inversely related to risk-adjusted return. The fifth and final essay examines the investment performance of active Australian bond funds and the impact of investor fund flows on portfolio returns. This essay represents a significant and original analysis in terms of its contribution to the literature, given the absence of Australian bond fund performance analytics and also the limited attention provided in the U.S. Both security selection and market timing performance is evaluated using both unconditional models and conditional performance evaluation techniques, which account for public information and the time-variation in risk. Overall, the results of this essay are consistent with the U.S. and international mutual fund evidence, where performance is found to be consistent with an efficient market. While actively managed institutional funds perform broadly in line with the index before expenses, the paper documents significant underperformance for actively managed retail bond funds after fees. The study also documents that retail fund flows negatively impact on market timing coefficients when flow is not accounted for in unconditional models.

Investment of mutual fund has always been popular to the common investor. No matter investing at Systematic Investment Plan or One-time Investment, choosing a ¡§good¡¨ mutual fund is expected for every investor. However, how to find a good one among a large number of funds? In the past reports or theses, there are many reasons of influencing mutual fund performance, which include fund¡¦s size among others. The common sense said that ¡§if you want to invest in mutual fund, you should choose the larger size ¡¨ Is that true? Through the past reports we can find out different opinions. This study mainly research into the relationship between performance and size of domestic open-ended mutual funds. Expect to give a simpler data for reference and lower the risk before general investors put money into funds. The logic of Spearman's Rank Correlation coefficient would be applied as the statistical inference in this study, and the domestic open-ended equity fund, balanced fund, and quasi-money market fund will be used as the observed samples. Monthly performance and size is the observed unit of time in this research period from March 2001 to February 2010. Thus via this mode will know whether the correlation between fund¡¦s performance and size is positive, negative or there is no correlation. The conclusions of this study are presented as follows: 1. There is a low positive correlation between performance and size for equity fund and quasi-money market fund. But the balanced fund does not show any correlation for these two variables. 2. Moreover, the study shows there is better performance for investing in over 4 billion NT asset of equity fund in a short term period. But the result of balanced fund and quasi-money market fund can¡¦t highlight the optimal size in a short term period. 3. From the long term point of view, the optimal interval of size for equity and balanced fund is between 1 billion and 2 billion. And the optimal size to quasi-money market fund is over 40 billion.

This dissertation presents five research essays evaluating the performance of managed funds in light of the investment strategy and manager characteristics exhibited by institutional investment companies. An analysis of investment performance with respect to a fund managers strategy provides important information in determining whether performance objectives have been achieved. There are a number of different types of investment strategies managed funds may adopt. However, the primary dichotomy is on the basis of whether the portfolio manager implements either an active or index approach. Active managers attempt to outperform the market through the use of price-sensitive information, whereas a passive manager's objective is to replicate the returns and risk of a target benchmark index. The evaluation of investment manager characteristics is also evaluated. This is motivated on the basis that asset management entities place significant emphasis on both the articulation and differentiation of their investment style relative to competitors, and selling the strengths of their portfolio management skills (in terms of past performance) as well identifying the key individuals comprising their investment team and their unique attributes. For active equity managers, the methods used in constructing portfolios and implementing the investment strategy include security selection, in terms of 'top-down' or 'bottom-up' strategies, value-biased, growth-biased or style-neutral strategies, and portfolios exhibiting market capitalisation biases (i.e. preferences to large or small-cap securities). In terms of active bond portfolio management, the most common strategies include duration management and yield curve positioning. Active managers' strategies are likely to extend beyond stock selection, in particular, where the fund manager adjusts the portfolio's composition in anticipation of favourably capitalising on future movements in the market. For index managers, replication of both the returns and risk of the underlying index may be achieved through either full-replication of constituent stocks comprising the index, or through non-replication techniques (stratified sampling and/or optimisation). Each essay provides a unique contribution to the literature with respect to the performance of active and index funds, as well as an analysis of funds that invest specifically in domestic equities, domestic fixed interest, and diversified funds that invest across the broad spectrum of asset classes. The origins of the performance evaluation literature are ascribed to Cowles' (1933) pioneering work, and the literature has given increasing attention to the topic. However the most fundamental issue considered in almost all previous studies of managed fund performance is the extent to which actively managed portfolios have earned superior risk-adjusted excess returns for investors. The literature has overwhelmingly documented (with a small number of exceptions) that active funds have been unable to earn superior returns, either before or after expenses (e.g. Jensen (1968), Elton et al. (1993), Malkiel (1995), Gruber (1996)). While the international evidence is supported by the few Australian managed fund studies available, Australian research remains surprisingly scarce. This is perplexing considering the sheer size of the investment industry in Australia (around $A717 billion as at 30 June 2001) and the importance placed on the sector with respect to successive Federal Governments' retirement income policies. The objectives of this dissertation therefore involve an analysis of managed fund performance with respect to differences in investment strategies (i.e. active and index), as well as providing an analysis of funds invested in equities, bonds and diversified asset classes (or multi-sector portfolios). The first essay evaluates the market timing and security selection capabilities of Australian pooled superannuation funds. These funds provide institutional investors with exposure to securities across many different asset classes, including domestic and international equities, domestic and international fixed interest, property and cash. Surprisingly, the specific analysis of multi-sector funds is scarce in the literature and limited to Brinson et al. (1986, 1991), Sinclair (1990), and Blake et al. (1999). This essay also evaluates performance for the three largest asset classes within diversified superannuation funds and their contribution to overall portfolio return. The importance of an accurately specified market portfolio proxy in the measurement of investment performance is demonstrated, where the essay employs performance benchmarks that account for the multi-sector investment decisions of active investment managers in a manner that is consistent with their unique investment strategy. This approach rectifies Sinclair's (1990) analysis resulting from benchmark misspecification. Consistent with the literature, the empirical results indicate that Australian pooled superannuation funds do not exhibit significantly positive security selection or market timing skill. Given the evidence in the literature surrounding the inability of active funds to deliver superior returns to investors, lower cost index funds have become increasingly popular as an alternative investment strategy. Despite the significant growth in index funds since 1976, when the first index mutual fund was launched in the U.S., research on their performance is sparse in the U.S. and non-existent in Australia. The second essay provides an original analysis of the Australian index fund market, with specific analysis applicable to institutional Australian equity index funds offered by fund managers. While indexing is theoretically straightforward, in practice there exist potential difficulties in exactly matching the return of the underlying index. Therefore the magnitude of tracking error is likely to be of concern to investors. This essay documents the existence of significant tracking error for Australian index funds, where the magnitude of the difference between index fund returns and index returns averages between 7.4 and 22.3 basis points per month for funds operating at least five years. However, there is little evidence of bias in tracking error, implying that these funds neither systematically outperform or underperform their benchmark on a before cost basis. Further analysis documents that the magnitude of tracking error is related to fund cash flows, market volatility, transaction costs and index replication strategies used by passive investment managers. The third essay presents evidence of the performance of U.S. mutual funds, where attention is given to both active and index mutual funds for which the applicable benchmark index is the S&P 500. This essay examines both the magnitude and variation of tracking error over time for S&P 500 index mutual funds. The essay documents seasonality in S&P 500 index mutual fund tracking error, where tracking error is significantly higher in the months of January and May, together with a seasonal trough in the quarters ending March-June-September-December. Statistical evidence indicates tracking error is both positively and significantly correlated with the dividend payments arising from constituent S&P 500 securities. In terms of a performance comparison between actively managed and index funds, active funds on average are found to significantly underperform passive benchmarks. On the other hand, S&P 500 index mutual funds earned higher risk-adjusted excess returns after expenses than large capitalisation-oriented active mutual funds in the period examined. These results suggest the S&P 500 is consistent with capital market efficiency, implying an absence of economic benefit accruing to the average investor utilising actively managed U.S. equity mutual funds. The fourth essay presented in the dissertation examines the performance of Australian investment management organisations with direct reference to their specific characteristics and strategies employed. Using a unique information source, performance is evaluated for actively managed institutional balanced funds (or diversified asset class funds), Australian share funds and Australian bond funds. Performance is evaluated with respect to the investment strategy adopted, the experience and qualifications held by investment professionals, and the tenure of the key investment professionals. This essay also evaluates the performance of senior sector heads to determine the skills of individuals driving the investment process, even though these individuals may migrate to competitor organisations. The essay finds evidence that a significant number of active Australian equity managers earned superior risk-adjusted returns in the period, however active managers perform in line with market indices for balanced funds and Australian bond funds. A number of manager characteristics are also found to predict risk-adjusted excess returns, systematic risk and investment expenses. Of particular note, performance of balanced funds is negatively related to the institution's age and the loyalty of non-senior investment staff. Performance is also found to be significantly higher for managers that predominantly operate their portfolios using a bottom-up, stock selection approach. Interestingly, the human capital of managers, measured as the years of tertiary education undertaken, does not explain risk-adjusted excess returns. Systematic risk is positively related to an institutions age and negatively related to both senior manager loyalty and the implementation of bottom-up portfolio management strategies. In terms of management expenses, fees are directly related to the Australian equities benchmark allocation, the years of tertiary education, the number of years service (loyalty) for non-senior investment professionals and the total years experience of senior money managers. This concluding essay also documents that changes in top management have significant performance effects. In the 12-month period after a change in fixed income director or chief investment officer, performance is significantly lower and significantly higher, respectively. There is no significant difference in performance where changes in top management occur for Australian equities. The years of service (loyalty) provided to asset management firms by equities directors is inversely related to risk-adjusted return. The fifth and final essay examines the investment performance of active Australian bond funds and the impact of investor fund flows on portfolio returns. This essay represents a significant and original analysis in terms of its contribution to the literature, given the absence of Australian bond fund performance analytics and also the limited attention provided in the U.S. Both security selection and market timing performance is evaluated using both unconditional models and conditional performance evaluation techniques, which account for public information and the time-variation in risk. Overall, the results of this essay are consistent with the U.S. and international mutual fund evidence, where performance is found to be consistent with an efficient market. While actively managed institutional funds perform broadly in line with the index before expenses, the paper documents significant underperformance for actively managed retail bond funds after fees. The study also documents that retail fund flows negatively impact on market timing coefficients when flow is not accounted for in unconditional models.

Zugl.: Mannheim, Universiẗat, Diss., 2008.

Master-Arbeit Univ. St. Gallen, 2008.

Classical decision-making theory suggests that decisions made by an individual or a team of decision makers should lead to the same performance outcome. Conversely, behavioral decision-making theory argues that decisions made by teams result in superior micro or macro forecasts and performance outcomes. Our tests using mutual funds support the classical decision-making theory. The empirical results are time invariant and robust with respect to the selected index or model specification.