A research report submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree M.Com. Masters (Finance) in the School of Economic and Business Sciences at the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg / This study empirically investigates the existence of the Samuelson Hypothesis in South African markets. The Samuelson Hypothesis states that the volatility of futures contracts increase as the expiration of the contracts approaches. It is an important phenomenon to account for when setting margins, creating hedging strategies and valuing options on futures. The study utilizes daily closing prices of agricultural and non-agricultural futures contracts for a period varying from 2002 to 2015. In total, eleven contracts were examined over this period, yet only one (White Maize) consistently shows support for the Samuelson Hypothesis. The Negative Covariance and State Variable Hypothesis were tested, but could not provide an alternative explanation for the lack of relationship between the time to maturity and volatility of futures contracts. / MT2017

Esta pesquisa teve como objetivo estudar a importância dos custos de transação nas operações em mercados futuros no Brasil. Para isso, foi proposta, primeiramente, uma sistematização dos custos de transação, dividindo-os em sete categorias, expostas a seguir: 1) aprendizado e capacitação; 2) taxas da bolsa e corretoras; 3) liquidez do mercado; 4) administração da operação; 5) margem de garantia; 6) necessidade de pagamento de ajustes diários; 7) tributação. O custo relativo à tributação, em particular, face à percepção de que não havia uma clareza quanto às suas características, foi também sistematizado de maneira que pudesse ser compreendido mais claramente. Pessoas físicas e pessoas jurídicas são tributadas diferentemente nas operações em bolsa de futuros, sendo que há diferença também dentro da própria classificação de pessoa jurídica - tributadas com base no lucro real, presumido ou arbitrado. Feita essa caracterização, foram estudados de maneira mais acurada alguns custos em particular, para o caso de pessoa física e com aplicação aos mercados futuros brasileiro da BM&F. Os custos analisados foram: tributação (IRPF e CPMF), taxas da bolsa e corretora, margem de garantia e ajustes diários. O que se propôs foi a aplicação de três métodos distintos e complementares, que possibilitassem sua mensuração. O primeiro método baseou-se em séries históricas de preços; o segundo utilizou-se de técnicas de simulação Monte Carlo, através de modelos ARIMA-GARCH; e o terceiro método também usou a técnica de simulação, porém, através de um modelo teórico mais simples. Os resultados obtidos demonstraram que em certas situações os custos podem ser muito elevados, e que pesquisas relativas aos mercados futuros que admitem ausência de custo, ou que utilizem apenas as taxas cobradas pela bolsa e corretoras, podem estar incorrendo em erros consideráveis. Para evidenciar essa argumentação, na presente pesquisa chegou-se, por exemplo, a valores de custos de transação médios que variaram de 2 a 6,5% do valor inicial do contrato. Os métodos utilizados permitiram analisar a influência de diversos fatores na magnitude dos custos: tempo de operação, grau de capitalização do agente, volatilidade e tipo de operação (compra ou venda de contratos). O que se concluiu foi o alto grau de dependência dos custos de transação analisados com relação às possíveis trajetórias de preço, durante a vida do contrato. Ao considerar que no início do contrato a real trajetória de preços que será verificada é desconhecida (incerta), nota-se a existência de um risco de custo, que pode ser assimétrico entre as partes compradas e vendidas. O risco de custo acaba diminuindo o benefício de administração de risco oferecido pelos mercados futuros, tendo efeito semelhante ao risco de base. Porém, o risco de custo independe de operações no mercado físico, algo que não acontece em se tratando da variável base. / This research had the objective to study the importance of transaction costs in the context of Brazilian futures markets. To do that, it was proposed, primarily, a transaction cost systematization, dividing them into seven categories as follows: 1) learning and qualification; 2) exchange and brokers fees; 3) liquidity of market; 4) operation management; 5) margin; 5) cash settlement; 7) tributes. The tributes cost, that was observed as being not clearly understandable by the agents of the markets, was also systematized in a manner to be better comprehended. Natural person and legal entity are taxed differently in the futures markets exchange, and there are some differences between the proper classifications of legal entity, related with the way it is charged. Done this characterization, it was studied in a more accurately manner, some costs related with natural persons, applied to Brazilian futures markets traded at BM&F. The costs analyzed were: tributes (IRPF and CPMF), exchange and brokers fees, margin and cash settlement. It was proposed three different and complementary methods, to make possible the measurement and the understanding. The first method was based in historical price series; the second one utilized Monte Carlo simulation, based on ARIMA-GARCH models; the last method also used simulation techniques, but with a simpler theoretical model. The results demonstrated that in certain situations the costs can be very large. So, futures markets researches that consider absence of costs, or that use only the exchange and brokers fees in their analyzes, can be incurring in considerable mistakes. To present an evidence of this argument, it was obtained, for example, average transaction costs between 2 and 6,5% of the initial value of the contract. The methods utilized allowed to analyze the influence of the several factors in the transaction cost value: the length of operation, the degree of capitalization of the agent, volatility and type of operation (selling or buying contracts). It was concluded that the transaction costs analyzed is large dependent of the futures price trajectories during the period of the contract. Considering that in the beginning of the operation the real trajectory that will be verified is not known (uncertain), it implies in a risk cost that can be asymetric between the buyer and seller of the contracts. The risk cost diminishes the risk management benefits offered by futures markets, having a similar effect of basis risk. However, the former one does not depend on spot market operations, something that does not happen when the subject is basis.

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Esta pesquisa teve como objetivo estudar a importância dos custos de transação nas operações em mercados futuros no Brasil. Para isso, foi proposta, primeiramente, uma sistematização dos custos de transação, dividindo-os em sete categorias, expostas a seguir: 1) aprendizado e capacitação; 2) taxas da bolsa e corretoras; 3) liquidez do mercado; 4) administração da operação; 5) margem de garantia; 6) necessidade de pagamento de ajustes diários; 7) tributação. O custo relativo à tributação, em particular, face à percepção de que não havia uma clareza quanto às suas características, foi também sistematizado de maneira que pudesse ser compreendido mais claramente. Pessoas físicas e pessoas jurídicas são tributadas diferentemente nas operações em bolsa de futuros, sendo que há diferença também dentro da própria classificação de pessoa jurídica – tributadas com base no lucro real, presumido ou arbitrado. Feita essa caracterização, foram estudados de maneira mais acurada alguns custos em particular, para o caso de pessoa física e com aplicação aos mercados futuros brasileiro da BM&F. Os custos analisados foram: tributação (IRPF e CPMF), taxas da bolsa e corretora, margem de garantia e ajustes diários. O que se propôs foi a aplicação de três métodos distintos e complementares, que possibilitassem sua mensuração. O primeiro método baseou-se em séries históricas de preços; o segundo utilizou-se de técnicas de simulação Monte Carlo, através de modelos ARIMA-GARCH; e o terceiro método também usou a técnica de simulação, porém, através de um modelo teórico mais simples. Os resultados obtidos demonstraram que em certas situações os custos podem ser muito elevados, e que pesquisas relativas aos mercados futuros que admitem ausência de custo, ou que utilizem apenas as taxas cobradas pela bolsa e corretoras, podem estar incorrendo em erros consideráveis. Para evidenciar essa argumentação, na presente pesquisa chegou-se, por exemplo, a valores de custos de transação médios que variaram de 2 a 6,5% do valor inicial do contrato. Os métodos utilizados permitiram analisar a influência de diversos fatores na magnitude dos custos: tempo de operação, grau de capitalização do agente, volatilidade e tipo de operação (compra ou venda de contratos). O que se concluiu foi o alto grau de dependência dos custos de transação analisados com relação às possíveis trajetórias de preço, durante a vida do contrato. Ao considerar que no início do contrato a real trajetória de preços que será verificada é desconhecida (incerta), nota-se a existência de um risco de custo, que pode ser assimétrico entre as partes compradas e vendidas. O risco de custo acaba diminuindo o benefício de administração de risco oferecido pelos mercados futuros, tendo efeito semelhante ao risco de base. Porém, o risco de custo independe de operações no mercado físico, algo que não acontece em se tratando da variável base. / This research had the objective to study the importance of transaction costs in the context of Brazilian futures markets. To do that, it was proposed, primarily, a transaction cost systematization, dividing them into seven categories as follows: 1) learning and qualification; 2) exchange and brokers fees; 3) liquidity of market; 4) operation management; 5) margin; 5) cash settlement; 7) tributes. The tributes cost, that was observed as being not clearly understandable by the agents of the markets, was also systematized in a manner to be better comprehended. Natural person and legal entity are taxed differently in the futures markets exchange, and there are some differences between the proper classifications of legal entity, related with the way it is charged. Done this characterization, it was studied in a more accurately manner, some costs related with natural persons, applied to Brazilian futures markets traded at BM&F. The costs analyzed were: tributes (IRPF and CPMF), exchange and brokers fees, margin and cash settlement. It was proposed three different and complementary methods, to make possible the measurement and the understanding. The first method was based in historical price series; the second one utilized Monte Carlo simulation, based on ARIMA-GARCH models; the last method also used simulation techniques, but with a simpler theoretical model. The results demonstrated that in certain situations the costs can be very large. So, futures markets researches that consider absence of costs, or that use only the exchange and brokers fees in their analyzes, can be incurring in considerable mistakes. To present an evidence of this argument, it was obtained, for example, average transaction costs between 2 and 6,5% of the initial value of the contract. The methods utilized allowed to analyze the influence of the several factors in the transaction cost value: the length of operation, the degree of capitalization of the agent, volatility and type of operation (selling or buying contracts). It was concluded that the transaction costs analyzed is large dependent of the futures price trajectories during the period of the contract. Considering that in the beginning of the operation the real trajectory that will be verified is not known (uncertain), it implies in a risk cost that can be asymetric between the buyer and seller of the contracts. The risk cost diminishes the risk management benefits offered by futures markets, having a similar effect of basis risk. However, the former one does not depend on spot market operations, something that does not happen when the subject is basis.

abstract: 中国商品期货市场经历30年发展，已初备协调资源分配、对冲经营风险的功能。但受产业自身和期货市场发展的制约，各期货品种市场有效性参差不齐。随着我国经济从增量阶段过渡到存量阶段，期货作为企业的价格管理和风险控制工具的重要性日益凸显，因此研究我国商品期货市场有效性具有非常好的现实意义。 本文开创性的从期货的基本功能——资源配置的角度出发，提出有效市场是指其期货价格能够对本行业社会资源起到合理的调配作用的市场。在内容安排上，本文首先总结了现有国际成熟期货品种的特点并找出能够反映期货对资源配置能力的四个指标假说，分别为期现回归性、利润波动性、库存波动性以及现金流变化，然后通过数学模型证明指标数据和品种成熟度的关联，最后应用该套指标对我国商品市场有效性进行检验。数学方法上，本文先采用Bai-Perron内生多重结构突变模型对时间序列进行突变点检验，然后对断点时间序列分别进行多元回归，并在剔除季节性和周期性后，通过平稳性检验、ARCH效应检验结果来确定相应的Garch模型，并用Garch模型来描述时间序列的波动性。 通过数学验证，我们认为期现回归性、利润波动性、库存波动性以及现金流变化这四个指标可以作为反映期货成熟度的检验指标，用该套方法对国内部分活跃品种检验后发现大连豆粕期货已经具备成熟品种的特征，本文认为豆粕期货市场是有效的；PTA、玉米淀粉期货的四个检验指标在近年来表现出时间序列优化的特点，但因时间较短尚不稳定，可以认为是接近成熟的品种；而螺纹钢和铝期货在多数指标上表现不佳，表明他们对社会资源配置能力较差，因此本文认为螺纹钢和铝期货市场是活跃但非有效的。通过进一步分析，本文认为品种的期现回归性差是制约其资源配置能力发挥的关键因素，而交易标的不明确、 仓单制作难度大、产业参与度低以及期货设计中的其他限制因素又是导致期现回归性差的重要原因。 / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Business Administration 2019

This dissertation is in the form of one survey paper and three essays on the topic of volatility. The unifying feature that permeates the entire thesis is the focus on the measurement and use of conditional second moment of equities and currencies as a measure of risk for asset pricing and policy purposes in the context of international markets. / The survey examines selected papers from the international finance literature and from the volatility literature with a focus on the theoretical and empirical relationship between first and second unconditional and conditional moments of domestic and international asset returns. It then specifically proposes several areas for investigation related to international finance topics. The first essay investigates the importance of asymmetric volatility when computing the risk premium of international assets. The results indicate that conditional second moment asymmetry is significant and time-varying. They also show that, if the price of risk is time-varying, the world market and foreign exchange risk premia estimated without allowing for time-varying asymmetry are less consistent with the data. Furthermore, they imply that asymmetry is more pronounced when the business condition is such that investors require higher compensation to bear risk. / In the second essay we start from the consideration that financial decision makers often consider the information in currency option valuations when making assessments about future exchange rates. The purpose of this essay is then to systematically assess the quality of option based volatility, interval and density forecasts. We use a unique dataset consisting of over 10 years of daily data on over-the-counter currency option prices. We find that the implied volatilities explain a large share of the variation in realized volatility. Finally, we find that wide-range interval and density forecasts are often misspecified whereas narrow-range interval forecasts are well specified. / In the third essay we examine whether the information contained in various measures of correlation among exchange rates can be used to assess future currency co-movement. We compare option-implied correlation forecasts from a dataset consisting of over 10 years of daily data on over-the-counter currency option prices to a set of return-based correlation measures and assess the relative quality of the correlation forecasts. We find that while the predictive power of implied correlation is not always superior to that of returns based correlations measures, it tends to provide the most consistent results across currencies. Predictions that use both implied and returns-based correlations generate the highest adjusted R2's, explaining up to 42 per cent of the realized correlations.

This thesis investigates the pricing relationship between the FTSE 100 Stock Index and the FTSE 100 Stock Index futures market. We develop and apply a framework in which it is possible to evaluate whether or not markets can be said to function effectively and efficiently. The framework is applied to both the daily and intra-daily pricing relationship between the aforementioned markets. In order to analyse the pricing relationship within days, we develop a new method to remove the effects of nonsynchronous trading from the FTSE 100 Index. We find that on a daily basis the markets generally function effectively, although this does not carryover to the intra-daily pricing relationship. This is especially true during the October 1987 stock market crash, where it is argued that a possible cause of the breakdown lies with the stock market. If this is the case, then any regulation should be aimed at the stock market, not the stock index futures market.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Wollongong, 2007. / Typescript. Includes bibliographical references: leaf 168-189.