Fuzzy logic is based on the theory of fuzzy sets, where an object’s membership of a set is gradual rather than just member or not a member. Fuzzy logic uses the whole interval of real numbers between zero (False) and one (True) to develop a logic as a basis for rules of inference. Particularly the fuzzified version of the modus ponens rule of inference enables computers to make decisions using fuzzy reasoning rather than exact. We study decision making problem under uncertainty. we analyze Max-Min method and Minimization of regret method originally developed by Savage and further developed by Yager. We generalize The MMR method by creating the parameterized family of minimum regret methods by using the ordered weighted averaging OWA operators.

Thesis (M.S.)--University of Missouri-Columbia, 2003. / Typescript. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 70-74). Also available on the Internet.

Thesis (M.S.)--University of Missouri-Columbia, 2003. / Typescript. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 70-74). Also available on the Internet.

Bi-level programming techniques are developed for decentralized decision problems with decision makers located in a two-level decision making system; the upper decision maker is termed the leader while the lower is the follower. Both the leader and the follower try to optimise their own objective functions and the corresponding decisions do not control but do affect those of the other level. This research aims at solving bi-level decision problems with five extensions, i.e. multiple leaders/followers/objectives, fuzzy coefficients and goals. By using particle swarm optimisation and/or cut set and/or goal programming and/or Nash equilibrium concept, related mathematical models and corresponding algorithms are developed to solve fuzzy linear bi-level decision problems, fuzzy linear multi-objective bi-level decision problems, fuzzy linear multi-follower multi-objective bi-level decision problems, fuzzy linear goal bi-level decision problems, multi-leader one-follower bi-level decision problems, one-leader multi-follower bi-level decision problems, and multileader multi-follower bi-level decision problems. A fuzzy bi-level decision support system is then developed which implements all the algorithms to support bi-level decision making with different features. Finally, by using these bi-level models and algorithms, we explore possible applications in the fields of railway train set organisation, railway wagon flow management, strategic bidding in the electricity market, and supply chains to solve real world bi-level decision problems. The results of experiments show that the models and algorithms are effective for solving real world bi-level decision problems.

Bi-level programming techniques are developed for decentralized decision problems with decision makers located in a two-level decision making system; the upper decision maker is termed the leader while the lower is the follower. Both the leader and the follower try to optimise their own objective functions and the corresponding decisions do not control but do affect those of the other level. This research aims at solving bi-level decision problems with five extensions, i.e. multiple leaders/followers/objectives, fuzzy coefficients and goals. By using particle swarm optimisation and/or cut set and/or goal programming and/or Nash equilibrium concept, related mathematical models and corresponding algorithms are developed to solve fuzzy linear bi-level decision problems, fuzzy linear multi-objective bi-level decision problems, fuzzy linear multi-follower multi-objective bi-level decision problems, fuzzy linear goal bi-level decision problems, multi-leader one-follower bi-level decision problems, one-leader multi-follower bi-level decision problems, and multileader multi-follower bi-level decision problems. A fuzzy bi-level decision support system is then developed which implements all the algorithms to support bi-level decision making with different features. Finally, by using these bi-level models and algorithms, we explore possible applications in the fields of railway train set organisation, railway wagon flow management, strategic bidding in the electricity market, and supply chains to solve real world bi-level decision problems. The results of experiments show that the models and algorithms are effective for solving real world bi-level decision problems.

Providing healthcare to the ever-rising elderly population has become a severe challenge and a top priority. Emerging innovations in healthcare, such as remote health monitoring technologies, promise to provide a better quality of care and reduce the cost of healthcare. However, many elderly people reject healthcare innovations. This lack of adoption constitutes a big practical problem because it keeps the elderly from benefiting from technology advances. The phenomenon is even more pronounced among elderly women, who represent the majority of the elderly population. A plethora of studies in the field of technology adoption resulted in sound, but highly generalized theories that are too parsimonious to provide practical insight into the phenomenon of elderly healthcare technology adoption (EHTA). There is a call to arms for novel approaches that facilitate the creation of models that expand technology adoption theories to the specifics of EHTA. This dissertation is a response to this call to arms, and it contributes to modeling practice in the EHTA field. It uses fuzzy cognitive mapping to design a novel mixed-methods modeling approach. Since elderly women constitute the majority of the elderly population, this dissertation treats elderly women's health technology adoption (EWHTA) as the case-in-point.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Missouri-Columbia, 2004. / Typescript. Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves [184]-190). Also available on the Internet.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Missouri-Columbia, 2004. / Typescript. Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves [184]-190). Also available on the Internet.

In the early stages of new product development, project selection is dominantly based on managerial intuition, rather than on analytic approaches. As much as 90% of all product ideas are rejected before they are formally assessed. However, to date, little is known about the product screening heuristics and screening criteria managers use: it has been suggested that their decision process resembles the "fast and frugal" heuristics identified in recent psychological research, but no empirical research exists. A major part of the product innovation pipeline is thus poorly understood. This research contributes to closing this gap. It uses cognitive task analysis for an in-depth analysis of the new product screening heuristics of twelve experienced decision makers in 66 decision cases. Based on the emerging data, an integrated model of their project screening heuristics is created. Results show that experts adapt their heuristics to the decision at hand. In doing so, they use a much smaller set of decision criteria than discussed in the product development literature. They also combine heuristics into decision approaches that are simple, but more complex than "fast and frugal" strategies. By opening the black box of project screening this research enables improved project selection practices.

Neste trabalho é proposta uma nova técnica de solução para resolver o problema de planejamento da expansão de sistemas de transmissão estático através da introdução da tomada de decisão fuzzy. Na técnica apresentada neste trabalho, a tomada de decisão fuzzy é aplicada para o desenvolvimento de um algoritmo heurístico construtivo. O sistema fuzzy é utilizado para contornar alguns problemas críticos das heurísticas que utilizam o índice de sensibilidade como guia para inserção de novas linhas. A heurística apresentada nesse trabalho é baseada na técnica dividir para conquistar. Verificou-se que a deficiência das heurísticas construtivas é decorrente da decisão de inserir novas linhas baseada em valores não seguros encontrados através da solução do modelo utilizado. Para contornar tal deficiência, sempre que surgirem valores não seguros divide-se o problema original em dois subproblemas, um que analisa a qualidade da resposta para o caso em que a linha é inserida e outro para verificar a qualidade da resposta para o caso em que a linha não é inserida. A tomada de decisão fuzzy é utilizada para decidir sobre quando dividir o problema em dois novos subproblemas. Utilizou-se o modelo cc com a estratégia de Villasana-Garver-Salon para realizar a modelagem da rede elétrica para os problemas da expansão de sistemas de transmissão aqui propostos. Ao serem realizados testes em sistemas de pequeno, médio e grande portes certificou-se que o método pode encontrar a solução ótima de sistemas de pequeno e médio portes. Porém, a solução ótima dos sistemas de grande porte testados não foi encontrada. Para melhorar a qualidade da solução encontrada utilizou, em uma segunda fase, a metaheurística busca tabu. A busca tabu utiliza o modelo cc. Os resultados se mostraram bastante promissores. Os testes foram realizados em alguns sistemas reais brasileiros e com o sistema real colombiano. / A new solution technique to solve the long-term static transmission expansion planning (TEP) problem based on fuzzy decision making is proposed. The technique applies the concepts of fuzzy decision making in a constructive heuristic algorithm. The fuzzy system is used to circumvent some critical problems of heuristics that use sentivity indices as a guide for insertion and construction of new lines. The heuristic algorithm proposed in this work is based on the divide and conquer technique. It has been verified that the deficiency of the constructive heuristics is due to the decision of inserting new lines based only on information given by the index, which usually is calculated from a relaxed mathematical representation of the problem and can become less accurate during the solution process. In order to be able to deal with such problem, whenever the quality of the index decreases, the original problem is divided into two sub-problems: one examines the quality of the solution when the transmission line indicated by the sensitivity index is inserted and the other subproblem checks the opposite. Fuzzy decision-making is used to decide the moment to divide the problem into two subproblems based on other information. The hybrid linear model is used to model the long-term transmission expansion planning problem and is used in the proposed algorithm. Tests was done with systems of small-term, medium-term and long-term. The optimal solution of small-term and medium-term was foundo using just the construtive heuristic algorithm with fuzzy decision-making. To deal with long-term systems was used the solutions of the construtive heuristic algorithm with fuzzy decision-making to init a tabu search. The tabu search uses the dc model. The results are very promising. The test was done with some real brazilian systems and with the real colombian system.