The Drakensberg Mountains is one of the most valuable natural resources in Southern Africa because precipitation over the mountains is the source of rivers that support socio-economic activities in Lesotho, South Africa, and Namibia. Meanwhile, extreme precipitation events over the Drakensberg are a threat to the communities around the mountains. While several studies have shown that mountains are among the most sensitive regions to climate variability and change, the potential impacts of global warming on precipitation and extreme precipitation occurrences over the Drakensberg are poorly understood. This thesis examines the characteristics of precipitation and extreme precipitation events over the Drakensberg in past climate and investigates how the characteristics might change in future climate at various global warming levels under RCP8.5 future climate scenario. Series of climate datasets were analysed for the study. These include observed precipitation datasets from eight satellite products, reanalysis datasets from National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and climate simulation datasets from the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS), Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX), and the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). All the simulation datasets were evaluated against the observation datasets. Precipitation indices were used to characterize precipitation and extreme precipitation events over the Drakensberg Mountains, with emphasis on widespread extreme events (WEREs). Self-Organizing Map (SOM) technique was employed to group the synoptic patterns over southern Africa, WERE patterns over DMR, and the future climate change projections over the Drakensberg Mountains. Results of this dissertation reveal that the weak synoptic days, which are associated with highpressure systems or the ridging of highs, account for 16 − 20% of weather conditions in MarchAugust and 5% of annual rainfall over the Drakensberg. Wet weak synoptic days can induce widespread extreme rainfall (up to 20mm day−1 ) over the Drakensberg. CFSR underestimates the magnitude of the weak-synoptic-day rainfall but the WRF downscaling of the CFSR dataset enhances the quality of the simulated rainfall. All of the climate simulation datasets (WRF, MPAS, CORDEX, NEX) give realistic simulations of the precipitation indices over Southern Africa, especially over South Africa and DMR. In most cases, the biases in the simulations are within the observation uncertainties. SOM analysis reveals four major patterns of WERE patterns over the Drakensberg. The most prevalent WERE pattern usually occurs on the eastern side of the mountain, stretching from north-east to the south-west along the coastline, and it is usually induced by tropical temperate troughs, cold fronts, and the ridging highs. There is no agreement among simulations ensemble means on the annual precipitation projection over DMR. However, the ensemble means agreed on an increase in the intensity of normal precipitation and a decrease in the number of precipitation days and the number of continuous wet days. They also agreed on a future increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation and widespread extreme events over DMR. SOM analysis, which elucidates the range of projection patterns that lie beneath the simulation ensemble means of the simulations, shows the most probable combination of projected changes in the annual precipitation and extreme precipitation events (intensity and frequency) over DMR: (i) an increase in both annual precipitation and extreme precipitation events; (ii) a decrease in both annual precipitation and extreme precipitation events; (iii) a decrease in annual precipitation but increase in extreme precipitation events. Results of this study can provide a basis for developing climate change adaptation and mitigating strategies over the Drakensberg.

Current efforts from national governments in the fight against global warming are insufficient and studies suggest that reaching the agreed 1.5°C target is unlikely with existing pledges and targets. Transnational climate change governance (TCCG) has become increasingly pervasive and gained significant political, economic and environmental influence over the past years. However, such efforts are still dominated by actors from the Global North and have for a long time predominantly focused on mitigation. Furthermore, little insights exist into how certain factors are beneficial or detrimental to the success of TCCG. This study assesses the effectiveness of 17 transnational adaptation initiatives in the Global South and investigates how various factors contribute to or hinder the achievement of set goals. Based on documentary analysis and primary interview data, the effectiveness of the initiatives was measured on a three-point scale and crucial aspects with regards to actors, process design and meta-governance were identified. The study finds a strong bias towards coordinating actors from the Global North. Furthermore, stark asymmetries exist in information, resources, interests and power, especially between the North and South, which hinder the achievement of goals. A high level of institutionalization and strong internal organization were identified as beneficial for the effectiveness of transnational adaptation initiatives. In contrast to that, a lack of robust monitoring and evaluation (M&E) systems as well as insufficient funding significantly impede goal achievement. Adequate M&E is hampered by lack of standardization as well as low commitment and buy-in from stakeholders, while lack of funding can become problematic if initiatives are too dependent on one donor and an end to funding threatens the sustainability of a programme. Lastly, alignment with and conduciveness to international regimes and related frameworks as well as collaboration with other initiatives can be beneficial. The study concludes that it is important to strengthen the capacities of actors from the Global South in order to enable them to take over coordinating roles. Furthermore, transnational adaptation initiatives are recommended to invest into institutionalization and establishing good governance structures such as a secretariat with full-time staff and steering committee, as well as management measures. A robust M&E system is required that goes beyond the output level and is well communicated to all stakeholders. Multiple funding sources should be considered in order to avoid too much dependency on one donor and international frameworks should be used and transferred to local levels. Lastly, initiatives are recommended to keep a high level of flexibility in their operations and adapt to the local context.

Rapid population growth, rising urbanisation, globalisation and technological progress have fundamentally changed how we produce and consume food. The majority of urban diets are now dominated by low intakes of fruit and vegetables and high intakes of highly processed, energy-dense and nutritionally poor foods. In Cape Town, South Africa, the impacts of this nutritional transition manifest themselves not only with hunger and undernutrition but also with overnutrition. Due to structural barriers in cities limiting access to healthy food, the urban poor are disproportionally affected by nutrition-related diseases. In addition to the impacts on human health, modern dietary patterns and food production significantly contribute to climate change, land-use change, deforestation and biodiversity loss, all of which threaten food and nutrition security. Considering these severe impacts on planetary health, urgent action enabling access to sustainable and healthy diets becomes imperative on both global and local scales. Local governments are at the forefront of the urban food challenge and can intervene through urban food governance; however, in South Africa, the food mandate is held by the national and provincial governments. This study reveals the strategic role the City of Cape Town can play when leveraging its constitutional powers, especially through mainstreaming food considerations into all municipal policies and processes, sustainable and healthy public procurement, regulating the private sector and supporting informal trade, encouraging sustainable local small-scale production of healthy food and the establishment of food gardens, expanding the local market structure, as well as through providing nutrition education. This research finds that despite the absence of an urban food mandate, there is great momentum for food to become a priority in the City of Cape Town. Remaining institutional challenges such as the lack of understanding of food security and the food system, political will, funding, capacity, and policy coherence must be overcome to tackle the urban food challenge. Multi-stakeholder collaboration was identified as a key element of effective urban food governance and should therefore be strengthened.

The Western Cape Province in South Africa recently experienced below-average rainfall during the period 2015−2017, this resulted in a three-year compound hydro-meteorological drought event in the Province. The 2015−2017 Western Cape hydro-meteorological drought was the worst drought event since 1904 and caused severe unprecedented water shortages throughout the Western Cape region, with many municipal water supply systems close to failure by the first quarter of 2018; most especially the Western Cape Water Supply System that serves Cape Town. The drought gained a lot of interest from the public, media and climate scientists alike. The main aim of this study was to assess the extent to which human influence on climate from fossil fuel emissions has changed the likelihood of a hydrometeorological drought event with the magnitude of that experienced in 2015−2017 in the SouthWestern Cape. The Pitman hydrological model was set up for the Berg River catchment in a way that enabled multiple simulations with different rainfall inputs so that attribution experiments could be undertaken. The key differences to the standard Pitman model set up included: (i) constant abstractions, return flows, and land use conditions; (ii) reservoir and dam storages were set to reflect current storage volumes; and (iii) extending the observed rainfall inputs to include the drought period. A hydrological model evaluation was then undertaken, using updated streamflow gauging station data, to assess the ability of the Pitman model to realistically simulate runoff in the Berg River catchment. The model was deemed suitable for the purposes of this study in simulating runoff. To generate the climate attribution experiments, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 historical simulations (1861−2010) were merged with the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 greenhouse gas scenario simulations (2011−2100) of rainfall from 77 simulations From 42 models to create a long-term (150 years) time series. Attribution experiments were constructed by considering the average conditions in the 31 year period centred on the years of the event, i.e. 2002−2031 to represent current climate conditions and the period 1861−1890 to represent pre-industrial climate conditions. Five 150-year long stochastic time series of rainfall for each individual simulation were then generated conditioned on observed rainfall characteristics this was done to increase the sample size of the models available. These stochastic rainfall time series were then used as input to the Pitman model to generate outputs/realisations of runoff for a pre-industrial and current world; thus generating impact attribution experiments. To determine the role of anthropogenic climate change on the 2015−2017 hydro-meteorological drought in the South-Western Cape the risk-based approach was applied to the rainfall and runoff attribution outputs. The 2015−2017 meteorological/hydrological drought event was defined in terms of three-year mean annual rainfall/runoff received in the Berg River catchment and its individual 12 quaternary catchments. This event definition was used as a rainfall/runoff threshold in the attribution analysis for the 2015−2017 meteorological/hydrological drought in the South-Western Cape. The three-year minimum averages of rainfall/runoff were identified in each of the 150-yearstochastic time series generated from the 77 simulations; resulting in 385 values for both current and pre-industrial climates for rainfall and runoff. A normal distribution was then fitted to the 385 values of the current and pre-industrial rainfall/runoff. From this distribution, the probability of the current rainfall/runoff occurring, based on the defined threshold, was identified and compared to the pre-industrial time series to calculate the risk ratios of the Berg River catchment and its 12 quaternary catchments. Results show that the risk of the meteorological drought event occurring in the Berg River catchment was increased by a factor of 28.5, 95% confidence interval: 26.0−32.4, (but ranged from 11.5−41.0 in the individual quaternary catchments) due to anthropogenic climate change. The occurrence of the hydrological drought event in the Berg River catchment was found to be increased by a factor of 12.9, 95% confidence interval: 11.3−13.5 (2.7−61.0 in the quaternary catchments) due to anthropogenic climate change. The risk ratio for runoff was higher than for rainfall in the wetter southern quaternary catchments, while it was lower than for rainfall in the drier more northern quaternary catchments. Thus, the human influence on meteorological drought appears to have been amplified in those catchments most important to the Western Cape Water Supply System.

No description available.

Dominant or western imaginations of ‘nature' have been historically imposed on Southern landscapes, resulting in processes of disruption of socio-ecological relations. By using the Quirimbas National Park in Mozambique as a case study, this thesis seeks to understand how nature has been used as an instrument for the social and political stratification of society. The thesis engages with the social construction of nature and nature assemblage theories to explore how binary approaches to conservation dichotomise ‘nature' and ‘culture' and, in the process, force the reconfiguration of society. It draws on examples of wildlife conservation approaches, territorial planning tools and protected area management policies as separation mechanisms which have been applied to the Quirimbas archipelago (and Mozambique) over the longue durée. Besides redefining the physical environment by turning socio-cultural landscapes into ‘nature blocks' or ‘prisons', separation mechanisms also framed the indígena in relation to how nature was perceived and manipulated by powerful groups. To explore how dominant imaginations of nature have been historically projected onto Mozambican landscapes and what that meant for the Quirimba National Park residents, the research adopted an interpretivist approach which relies on qualitative data. The study primarily draws from participant observation, archival research, interviews and focus group discussions with ‘external' actors including conservationists, historians, researchers, government authorities, NGOs, park authorities, conservation organisations and the private tourism sector, as well as ‘internal' ones which comprised park residents. To understand processes of disruption, the thesis analysed qualitative data from the historical periods covering Portuguese colonial rule from the late 1800s up to Mozambique's independence in 1975, and the post-independence period until the 2020s. The three key findings of the study are that, first, mechanisms used to separate or disrupt the links between ‘nature' and ‘culture' in Mozambique tended to fluctuate over time, but essentially maintained the same goal, which was to interrupt the connectivity between people and the environment. Second, the disruption of ‘nature' and ‘culture' led to the placing of locals into different categories that changed over time, in function of Portuguese colonial interests/perceptions of nature, and/or external conservation narratives. In line with this, locals were either perceived as belonging in the wilderness (i.e. part of the local flora and fauna), excluded from it for being primitive and irresponsible towards nature, or reintroduced back in nature to serve the interests of external actors (i.e. native life used as a product for consumption by tourists). Third, when mechanisms of separation disrupt the links people have with the environment, society is forced to reorganise itself and essential socio-ecological relations are disturbed. That is, while people's lives are not necessarily stopped in the process of separation, they are reconfigured in the process or forced to reorganise themselves and/or their livelihoods every time there is a disruption.

Since the inception of the Impact Assessment (IA) tool in the late 4567s, a pivotal role has been assigned to science and expert knowledge, in a rational scientific approach to anticipating the environmental effects of proposed projects. Embedded in this philosophy is a realist interpretation of risk, such that measurable properties are allocated that can be determined based on probabilities. The intention is to reduce uncertainty and improve the accuracy of forecasting. Whilst this approach adds value to IA, it has limitations in respect of the human dimensions of risk which influence the process and outcomes of the assessment. This research responds to this problem with an exploration into competing constructions of risk for the IA discipline. I begin this thesis by highlighting how IA has been affected by the passage of risk, over several decades, from the domain of science to a wider public discourse linked to fear and anxiety about living in a “Runaway World” (Giddens, L77L). Relevant in this context, are espoused sustainability principles for IA relating to inclusivity and equity. Underscored by numerous critics are associated challenges, particularly when it comes to incorporating social values and acknowledging the role of power in IA. I propose that these challenges can be linked to interpretations of risk - realist on one hand, and societal, cultural and cognitive on the other. The approach to uncovering the implications of competing constructions of risk for IA relies on the method of critical discourse analysis (CDA), and a Foucauldian notion of discourse linked to power. I describe three distinct theories focusing on the social, psychological, and cultural dimensions of risk. These include risk society theory, the psychometric paradigm and cultural theory. To demonstrate their relevance, each theory is applied in a discourse analysis of three South African case studies: a specialist study for a fuel storage facility, an environmental impact assessment (EIA) for a nuclear power plant, and a strategic environmental assessment (SEA) for proposed hydrofracking for shale gas in the Karoo. The studies highlight limitations to the realist interpretation of risk, particularly in morally and politically contested circumstances. My argument is for a richer understanding of risk for IA, along a continuum which accommodates pluralism. I conclude that alternative risk theories provide deeper insight into social values and power dynamics, with a view to advancing the IA discipline to meet the challenges posed by increasing levels of uncertainty in an everchanging world.

Property is a concept that gained traction by the ways in which it organises human relations and access and ownership resources. Research in legal geography has shown that property is mobilised to justify or resist dispossession. Colonial powers invoked problematic ideas of the property rights of indigenous people to justify land dispossession through trusts. The British empire was particularly well-versed in this, adopting a trusteeship model whereby indigenous land was held in trust. Placing indigenous land in trust enabled the empire to appropriate indigenous land without the moral hazard of violent land dispossession. The empire used trusts under the pretext that it sought to protect indigenous people and their land from increased competition for land triggered by settler influx. However, the trusteeship model fundamentally altered the property rights of indigenous people by redefining historical owners of the land as beneficiaries with no decision-making powers over property. This study shows that the trusteeship model that was instrumental for land dispossession in South Africa re-emerged in the democratic era in the form of community development trusts. These trusts are not community-driven but are instead designed and created by the state to serve as an avenue for the state to exercise control over natural resources and to manage the relations between communities and the state. This study locates these dual roles within the broader political history of South Africa to demonstrate that the democratic state has maintained the symbiotic relationship between trusts and the state and that this enables the state to manage contestations over property.

Land degradation and invasion by alien plants are interconnecting issues that span both natural and socio-economic systems. As a result, addressing the complexity and severity of these pressures requires the use of a multidisciplinary approach. This study aims to assess land degradation and invasive alien plants distribution and their impacts on the ecosystem services within the WBR. An area outside the reserve was designated as a control to compare how degradation processes have evolved over the last few decades. Landsat images captured in 1989, 2000, 2013, and 2017 were used to analyse and map the land use/cover change. The images were classified into the following classes: water bodies, woody vegetation, grasslands, cultivated fields, bare lands, and settlements. Change detection performed between the years showed that the area outside the WBR has been losing grasslands and woody vegetation and gained more bare lands, cultivated fields, and settlements. On the contrary, the area within the WBR lost a significant amount of bare land and gained grasslands, woody vegetation, and a small amount of cultivated fields and settlements. The roadside survey was used to assess the distribution of invasive alien plants along the main roads in the selected areas. A single observer drive-by method was used to record the alien plants present at an interval of 5 km. To understand how the communities are being influenced by land degradation and alien plants invasion, focus group discussions were held to understand how their livelihoods are affected. Four important indicators, namely vegetation loss, land-use intensity, alien plants distribution, and population pressure, were overlaid using ArcMap 10.1 to determine the land degradation severity in both study areas. The results revealed that land degradation was severe outside the WBR, where most human activities occur, regardless of population pressure and alien plant distribution. These issues were intensifying with profound, severe implications for people's livelihoods, as land is the leading resource from which communities, both within and outside the WBR, eke their living. The WBR experienced land recovery following the proclamation of the area as a formal biosphere reserve by UNESCO, which has constrained the harmful impact of human activities. Reversing degradation and invasion by alien plant species requires sustainable land use and planning based on the current land-use practices and landscape attributes. Therefore, integrating local and scientific knowledge is helpful in the planning of sustainable and efficient land management.

This study addresses the problem of predicting suitable burning weather for the south-western Cape Province by means of synoptic analysis. Weather which is suitable for veld burning is defined in terms of maximum hourly windspeed (< 16 km/hr), maximum daily temperature (18° - 28°C) and minimum daily humidity (15 - 45%). Synoptic conditions which are associated with favourable burning weather are outlined. Burning weather in the study area was found to be associated with weak anticyclonic air flow. The pressure configuration which gives rise to the required anticyclonic flow consists of a high pressure cell over the eastern part of the subcontinent, a trough of low pressure along the north-western interior and the location of the climatological high pressure system of the South Atlantic Ocean to the south-west of the subcontinent. A model five-day sequence of pressure charts was developed for use as an analogue consultation system for predicting burning weather. During a test application of the model five-day sequence it could be shown that the system is useful for alerting catchment managers three days in advance, when to expect weather suitable for controlled burning.