Includes abstract. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 205-223). / This thesis examines the interrelationship between “water, climate change and small towns”. The research question is framed in three parts: 1) can climate change be integrated into existing planning frameworks? 2) can small towns build resilient strategies against projected climate change impacts? and, 3) is adaptation to climate change an economic issue? It is evident that very little synergy exists between the different sectors dealing with water access. A holistic view of access and the impact of climate change does not exist in the sustainable development, urban planning and water resources management sectors. It is therefore proposed that the successful delivery of accessible water services lies with the integration of the urban planning, water resources management and climate change adaptation responses. In order to achieve this, a planning framework is introduced.

Includes bibliographical references / Wild plants assist in supporting human livelihoods worldwide, both within traditional systems of medicine, and as economically useful plants. Indigenous to the Fynbos biome in the north-western part of the Western Cape, South Africa is the leguminous shrub, A. linearis (rooibos), which is extensively used as ethnomedicine by local communities, while also commercially grown and exported for the herbal tea market. Being a range-restricted species, climate change poses a threat to wild plants and their dependent communities, as well as the sustainability of the rooibos industry. Climate mediated impacts on rooibos are mostly substantiated by anecdotal evidence from commercial growers and local communities and have traditionally been insufficiently addressed. This study integrates predictive modelling and empirical data to provide important insights into rooibos' plant physiological functioning in the presence of climatic and environmental constraints. The aim is to determine whether there is evidence of climate change over the rooibos distribution area, how these climate anomalies are expected to affect the species distribution and to perform experimental studies by testing plant physiological functioning of A. linearis under changing climate conditions. Analysis of climate parameters important for rooibos production (rainfall frequency and intensity, temperature extremes and wind speed) have shown that plants will experience a shorter period of water availability during winter, and prolonged exposure to summer conditions (high temperatures and water stress) in the coming decades. Under these conditions, climate envelope modelling suggests that wild and cultivated rooibos types are at risk to lose between 49.8% and 88.7% in the extent of the bio-climatically suitable localities, most notably along the western and northern periphery of the rooibos production area by 2070. Plant physiological responses (growth analysis, gas exchange parameters and leaf carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios) to the assessed climate anomalies were measured in experimental studies at glasshouse and field scale. Specific adaptation mechanisms (increasing water use efficiency, developing a higher level of sclerophylly and altering the allocation of plant reserves) which helped seedlings to survive short term drought in the glasshouse were not able to offset more severe conditions in field settings. Finally, a comparison of wild and cultivated tea has shown an apparent adaptive advantage of wild tea to tolerate increased aridity with greater water economy, and more reliance on biological nitrogen fixation for N nutrition, indicating a potentially less severe scenario of range contraction for wild types than initially indicated. This study provides a more robust prediction of rooibos plant responses to climate change factors to enable more effective adaptive planning and conservation management in a changing climate.

Includes bibliographical references / Drought is one of the natural hazards that threaten the economy of many nations, especially in Southern Africa, where many socio-economic activities depend on rain-fed agriculture. This study evaluates the capability of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in simulating the Southern African droughts. It uses the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI, computed using rainfall and temperature data) to identify 3-month droughts over Southern Africa, and compares the observed and simulated drought patterns. The observation data are from the Climate Research Unit (CRU), while the simulation data are from 10 RCMs (ARPEGE, CCLM, HIRHAM, RACMO, REMO, PRECIS, RegCM3, RCA, WRF, and CRCM) that participated in the Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. The study also categorizes drought patterns over Southern Africa, examines the persistence and transition of these patterns, and investigates the roles of atmospheric teleconnections on the drought patterns. The results show that the drought patterns can occur in any season, but they have preference for seasons. Some droughts patterns may persist up to three seasons, while others are transient. Only about 20% of the droughts patterns are induced solely by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), other drought patterns are caused by complex interactions among the atmospheric teleconnections. The study also reveals that the Southern Africa drought pattern is generally shifting from a wet condition to a dry condition, and that the shifting can only be captured with a drought monitoring index that accounts for temperature influence on drought. Only few CORDEX RCMs simulate the Southern African droughts as observed. In this regard, the ARPEGE model shows the best simulation. The best performance may be because the stretching capability of ARPEGE helps the model to eliminate boundary condition problems, which are present in other RCMs. In ARPEGE simulations, the stretching capability would allow a better interaction between large and small scale features, and may lead to a better representation of the rain producing systems in Southern Africa. The results of the study may be applied to improve monitoring and prediction of regionally-extensive drought over Southern Africa, and to reduce the socio-economic impacts of drought in the region.

Bibliography: leaves 128-148. / The impress of history has been particularly profound in the sphere of environmental perception, in that South Africans, both black and white, have had their notions of the environment shaped by the political forces of the past. Accordingly, this study is placed within the context of historical geography, as its open-ended techniques and multi-disciplinary approach is regarded as the most appropriate way of undertaking a study which crosses both historical and environmental boundaries. A contention fundamental to this study, is that South African environmental awareness and knowledge is at a fairly low level and that black environmental interest and concern in particular, ranges from apathy to outright hostility. It is further contended that the attainment of mass environmental literacy is essential for the success of the environmental movement in this country and that this in turn, is dependent on the adoption of a strategy incorporating an integrated historical, social and political perspective. Historico-political factors such as: the impact of the colonizing process; the dispossession of the indigenous peoples; the effect of racial attitudes; discriminatory land legislation and, in particular, the imposition of the apartheid system in 1948, are evaluated in terms of their effect on the development of black environmental attitudes. The culmination of these factors has led to a distortion of environmental perceptions and attitudes, as well as to the alienation of blacks from the environment. Conversely, the initially exploitative white response to the environment gradually incorporated a preservationist element, subsequently evolving into a conservation ideology which generally ignored black interests and perspectives. The policies and activities of the first black environmental organizations are detailed, in an attempt to place their achievements in historical perspective. Research in this area was conducted using primary sources. Interviews with selected environmental and mass democratic organizations in the Greater Cape Town Region were conducted. Using the techniques of the focused interview, their stance on environmental issues was established and their proposals for a future environmental strategy elicited. It was found that, while only one of the nine mass democratic organizations evaluated had an environmental policy, they were all committed to the establishment of a democratic society as well as to the concept of mass participation in environmental politics. Based on the insights gained from the historical aspects of the study, as well as an assessment of the proposals put forward during interviews, it is concluded that certain preconditions .are necessary for the successful implementation of future environmental strategies, if blacks are to become involved in environmental issues. These are: the destruction of apartheid; the establishment of a democratic state and the enhancement of individual quality of life.

Environmental Impact Assessment is a procedure that ensures that the environmental consequences of development proposals are understood and adequately considered in the planning process. This important project planning requirement is often inadequately addressed in many developing countries - especially with regard to dam projects. Lesotho is a small developing country in Southern Africa which is currently engaged in a multi-phased dam project - the Lesotho Highlands Water Project (LHWP) - in order to utilize its most abundant natural resource - water. Planning for the LHWP incurred some irregularities, particularly with regard to environmental implications. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the environmental impact assessment procedures of the LHWP, Phase lA. This includes review of the environmental studies that were carried out and the findings of these studies; assessment of the familiarity of the Lesotho Highlands Development Authority (LHDA) staff with EIA procedures; and examination of the extent to which the communities in the project area were consulted regarding this project. The study is based on two surveys: firstly, within the Environment Division of the Lesotho Highlands Development Authority to assess the familiarity of staff members with proper EIA procedures. In this survey 28 self-administered questionnaires were issued, and 23 were collected. Secondly, structured interviews and unstructured group discussions were carried out in 14 villages to examine the extent to which the communities affected by the LHWP had been involved in the environmental impact assessments of Phase lA; and whether the impacts they experienced and the subsequent. Mitigation efforts had been considered comprehensively by the project proponents. Eighty interviews were conducted in six of the 14 villages selected in the study, in the remaining villages data was collected through group discussions. The groups consisted of 10 - 12 members (usually prominent persons) from the community. The study revealed that EIA for Phase 1 A of the LHWP was not carried out according to recognized standards. Environmental studies that were undertaken were done too late in the EIA process, and did riot facilitate the project planning. The study also found that the majority of LHDA staff members are not familiar with the details of the EIA process, and did not participate in Phase lA project planning. The communities affected by the LHWP were not given the opportunity to raise their concerns about the project. This is manifested by the magnitude and type of impacts which they have incurred because of the LHWP. Members of these communities therefore regard their livelihoods as being worse than before the project. It is thus recommended that LHDA should revise and significantly improve its project planning approaches - especially for the subsequent phases of the project. It is imperative· to incorporate public participation in the EIAs of these phases. Formulation of guideline sand legislation - in Lesotho as a whole - will ensure enforcement and compliance with sound environmental assessment procedures, and improve on LHDA's manpower capabilities with regard to EIA and environmental management. This in turn will enhance an environmentally sustainable development.

Bibliography: pages 111-113. / The continued growth of the South African tourist industry was assumed and projections up to year 2020 were made to establish the corresponding growth in employment opportunities in the hotel industry. Overseas tourism is sensitive to and dependent on many factors. These were identified and the performance over the past two decades for bona fide overseas visitors, excluding mere border crossings, were extrapolated, accepting that oscillations about the suggested trend line will become greater in the future. In order to predict the growth of domestic tourism, cognisance had to be taken of the demographic development of the various population groups. The distribution of wealth among the various groups was estimated in the short, medium and long terms. On it depends the choice of accommodation when going on holiday. An evaluation was made of the employment pattern in the South African hotel industry. Published data from the Central Statistical Services and the Bureau of Financial Analysis (BFA) of the University of Pretoria were used. The 1982 Manpower Survey of the BFA proved particularly useful in establishing the present distribution of skilled staff in the industry by hotel grading and by geographical area. Performance ratios were calculated relative to capital invested and to revenue earned. The lowest staff to room ratios were used as criterion for optimal and most efficient usage of staff. The model thus developed with the aid of the Hewlett Packard STATP computer program, was based on actual present performance of a certain category of hotels. Unlike other approaches reported in the literature, a clear distinction was here made between skilled and unskilled labour. This distinction is considered to be of prime importance to any developing country where a shortage of skilled staff generally prevails, in contrast to a vast supply of untrained labour.

Bibliography: p. 182-190. / The Kaapsehoop Cycad (Encephalartos laevifolius Stapf and Burtt Davy) has the international, national, and provincial status of "endangered" by virtue of a number of factors which threaten it with extinction. It occurs in only three disjunct populations in southern Africa, of which two are very small and have only adult plants. This situation suggested the need for specific action to ensure the conservation of the plant within its natural habitat. This study was initiated in an attempt to respond to this call for action. The aims of the study were set at gaining an understanding of the ecology of the cycad, establishing the exact nature and extent of the factors threatening it with extinction, and presenting management guidelines as to how the plant and its habitat may be managed to ensure their conservation. Chapter One includes a background to the botanical significance of cycads in general, the reasons for the endangered status of E. laevifolius and a list of aims and objectives. The latter are briefly; to develop. an understanding of the ecology of this cycad, determine the nature and extent of the threats which have placed it in the ''endangered" category, and establish means of managing the plants and their habitat so as to mitigate these threats . The methodology followed to achieve the latter is presented in Chapter Two. The results achieved from work carried out by the author are presented In Chapter Three, and they are then discussed in Chapter Four, together with those obtained from other researchers and experts in the field of cycad ecology and management. From this it becomes apparent that the major factor threatening the plants continued existence in nature, is its illegal removal by unscrupulous collectors. The use of fire as a management tool may cause the loss of sexually propagated off-spring if not based on ecological principals. This would be tragic as the percentage of fertile seed being produced at present is extremely low. Besides the latter two abiotic threats, there are two biotic threats which are also .cause for concern. They are the rotting of the female cones and seed by a pathogenic infection, and the destruction of newly growing tissue by the caterpillars of the Leopard Moth. The insights gained from the study are drawn together as conclusions in Chapter Five. Where these indicate specific management measures or directions for further research, recommendations are made. It must be emphasized that although this study has been used for the enhancement of the author's academic qualification, it is vitally important that the recommendations made be seriously reviewed by those responsible for the conservation of this cycad. If this study is simply put on the shelf after it has achieved its academic goal, the possibility of E. laevifolius becoming extinct is very real.

Many studies have projected a future warming over Southern Africa without including the influence of on - going vegetation changes in the region. This study investigates how the vegetation changes may alter the projected warming. For the study, two regional climate models (RegCM and WRF) were applied to simulate the present day (1970 - 2005) and the future (2030 - 2065; IPCC RCP 4.5) climate, with and without vegetation change. The study considers two scenarios of vegetation change: the first accounts for the potential impacts of natural bush encroachment and commercial forestation in the eastern part of South Africa, while the second accounts for the expansion of grass cover along the western region of the Grassland Biome in South Africa. The result s of this study agree with that of previous studies in that elevated greenhouse emissions will induce warming over Southern Africa in the future , but further indicate that the ongoing vegetation change s may considerably alter the magnitude of the warming. Forestation may enhance the warming over the forested area and induce cooling elsewhere. It may also produce wet conditions locally and induce dry conditions over other area within the region. In contrast, the expansion of grass cover may reduce the projected warming over the grass covered area and induce warming elsewhere. It may also induce dry conditions locally and produce wet conditions over other areas in the sub-continent. Both vegetation change scenarios ( i.e. forestation and expansion of grass cover ) alter the projected future climate changes through their influence s on local surface albedo ; while forestation decreases the surface albedo, the expansion of grass cover increase s it . However, the changes in rainfall and temperature from the vegetation changes could enhance the frequency drought over some areas and reduce it over other areas with in Southern Africa. This study, therefore, suggests that the vegetation changes may produce unexpected impacts on future climate. It also suggests that before using vegetation changes to mitigate climate change in Southern Africa, the biogeochemical benefits (i.e. carbon sequestration) should be carefully weighed against biogeophysical effects (i.e. changes in albedo).

In an increasingly urbanised world, addressing the need for access to urban green space has become a pertinent topic of interest. In Cape Town, South Africa, a city of immense biodiversity and unique spatial development, the issue of accessing urban green spaces is particularly important. Environmental and ecological advocates call for conservation of green space, to preserve the rare biodiversity of the region, while pressures for continued development to accommodate the City's growing population override land conservation policy aspirations. The legacy of post-apartheid development is still strongly entrenched in Cape Town, resulting in an inequitable and in efficient city form. Access to quality green space remains problematic in Cape Town. This research seeks to discover how accessible urban green spaces are in Cape Town, and, if barriers exist, whether they are physical, economic, or socially driven. The author has undertaken a case study method approach to conduct this research, focusing on eight nature reserves or conservation areas managed by the City of Cape Town in the southern and eastern suburbs of the City. Key informant interviews (n= 6) were conducted, as well as qualitative and quantitative surveys of park users and the general public. Park users (n= 672) were surveyed on site, at one of the eight green spaces, while the public (n= 317) were surveyed at the nearest commercial shopping area adjacent to the green space. Outcome measures included demographic information, suburb of residence, mode of transport, reasons for choosing mode of transport, frequency of green space visits, and reasons for visiting. Results show the majority of park users accessed the green space by personal vehicle, and very few park users took public transport (n= 3). The majority of users resided in suburbs within two kilometre s of the green space. Park users varied in age, yet young adults aged 16-19 and elderly over the age of 80 accounted for only 2.8% and 1.8% of those surveyed, respectively. The ethnic breakdown of those surveyed was not indicative of Cape Town's ethnic breakdown, according to the 2011 Census, with white South Africans and coloured South Africans accounting for 50% and 39%, respectively. Over a quarter of the public surveyed identified 'lack of information' or 'unaware of what park offers' as the reason for not visiting the green space. Safety and security was a common concern among both park users and the public; many expressed concern about visiting the green space alone, or traveling alone due to issues of security in the adjacent neighbourhoods. From the data gathered in this research, the author concludes that barriers exist in the access of quality green spaces within Cape Town, and include, but are not limited to, issues of proximity, public transport, safety and security, spatial development of the City, varied green space interests, and information barriers. These issues vastly alter how users engage in these eight different green spaces. Further research may be conducted in a more expansive study on Cape Town's green spaces, including small local green spaces in neighbourhoods throughout the City, which may yield interesting results on the access and barriers to access of urban green spaces.

Bibliography: pages 158-178. / Over the years, recreation opportunities in South Africa have been subject to increasing visitor use and pressure from widespread environmental changes. There has been growing imbalance between recreation opportunities in more and less developed environments. As a result conflicts have arisen between different user groups. The "Cederberg Controversy" demonstrates the need for a redefined, comprehensive recreation planning framework to resolve such conflicts. Traditional recreation planning approaches have not provided a suitable framework. By comparison, the Recreation Opportunity Spectrum concept has considerable potential for aiding recreation planners in South Africa. An application of principles of the Recreation Opportunity Spectrum concept, and closer analysis, reveal that the concept is limited. An extension to the concept is proposed whereby the goal of visitor satisfaction is supplemented by a policy declaration to maintain diverse recreation opportunities. Whenever the consequences of a decision affecting the supply of recreation opportunities are irreversible, the maintenance of diversity should take precedence over visitor demand.