We assess the relationship between model size and complexity in the time-varying parameter VAR framework via thorough predictive exercises for the Euro Area, the United Kingdom and the United States. It turns out that sophisticated dynamics through drifting coefficients are important in small data sets while simpler models tend to perform better in sizeable data sets. To combine best of both worlds, novel shrinkage priors help to mitigate the curse of dimensionality, resulting in competitive forecasts for all scenarios considered. Furthermore, we discuss dynamic model selection to improve upon the best performing individual model for each point in time. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

<p>Graphs are a natural choice for understanding the associations between variables, and assuming a probabilistic embedding for the graph structure leads to a variety of graphical models that enable us to understand these associations even further. In the realm of high-dimensional data, where the number of associations between interacting variables is far greater than the available number of data points, the goal is to infer a sparse graph. In this thesis, we make contributions in the domain of Bayesian graphical models, where our prior belief on the graph structure, encoded via uncertainty on the model parameters, enables the estimation of sparse graphs.</p> <p><br></p> <p>We begin with the Gaussian Graphical Model (GGM) in Chapter 2, one of the simplest and most famous graphical models, where the joint distribution of interacting variables is assumed to be Gaussian. In GGMs, the conditional independence among variables is encoded in the inverse of the covariance matrix, also known as the precision matrix. Under a Bayesian framework, we propose a novel prior--penalty dual called the `graphical horseshoe-like' prior and penalty, to estimate precision matrix. We also establish the posterior convergence of the precision matrix estimate and the frequentist consistency of the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimator.</p> <p><br></p> <p>In Chapter 3, we develop a general framework based on local linear approximation for MAP estimation of the precision matrix in GGMs. This general framework holds true for any graphical prior, where the element-wise priors can be written as a Laplace scale mixture. As an application of the framework, we perform MAP estimation of the precision matrix under the graphical horseshoe penalty.</p> <p><br></p> <p>In Chapter 4, we focus on graphical models where the joint distribution of interacting variables cannot be assumed Gaussian. Motivated by the quantile graphical models, where the Gaussian likelihood assumption is relaxed, we draw inspiration from the domain of precision medicine, where personalized inference is crucial to tailor individual-specific treatment plans. With an aim to infer Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs), we propose a novel quantile DAG learning framework, where the DAGs depend on individual-specific covariates, making personalized inference possible. We demonstrate the potential of this framework in the regime of precision medicine by applying it to infer protein-protein interaction networks in Lung adenocarcinoma and Lung squamous cell carcinoma.</p> <p><br></p> <p>Finally, we conclude this thesis in Chapter 5, by developing a novel framework to compute the marginal likelihood in a GGM, addressing a longstanding open problem. Under this framework, we can compute the marginal likelihood for a broad class of priors on the precision matrix, where the element-wise priors on the diagonal entries can be written as gamma or scale mixtures of gamma random variables and those on the off-diagonal terms can be represented as normal or scale mixtures of normal. This result paves new roads for model selection using Bayes factors and tuning of prior hyper-parameters.</p>

Model and variable selection have attracted considerable attention in areas of application where datasets usually contain thousands of variables. Variable selection is a critical step to reduce the dimension of high dimensional data by eliminating irrelevant variables. The general objective of variable selection is not only to obtain a set of cost-effective predictors selected but also to improve prediction and prediction variance. We have made several contributions to this issue through a range of advanced topics: providing a graphical view of Bayesian Variable Selection (BVS), recovering sparsity in multivariate nonparametric models and proposing a testing procedure for evaluating nonlinear interaction effect in a semiparametric model. To address the first topic, we propose a new Bayesian variable selection approach via the graphical model and the Ising model, which we refer to the ``Bayesian Ising Graphical Model'' (BIGM). There are several advantages of our BIGM: it is easy to (1) employ the single-site updating and cluster updating algorithm, both of which are suitable for problems with small sample sizes and a larger number of variables, (2) extend this approach to nonparametric regression models, and (3) incorporate graphical prior information. In the second topic, we propose a Nonnegative Garrote on a Kernel machine (NGK) to recover sparsity of input variables in smoothing functions. We model the smoothing function by a least squares kernel machine and construct a nonnegative garrote on the kernel model as the function of the similarity matrix. An efficient coordinate descent/backfitting algorithm is developed. The third topic involves a specific genetic pathway dataset in which the pathways interact with the environmental variables. We propose a semiparametric method to model the pathway-environment interaction. We then employ a restricted likelihood ratio test and a score test to evaluate the main pathway effect and the pathway-environment interaction. / Ph. D.