Spelling suggestions: "subject:"marginal likelihood"" "subject:"arginal likelihood""
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On accommodating spatial dependence in bicycle and pedestrian injury counts by severity levelNarayanamoorthy, Sriram 04 March 2013 (has links)
This thesis proposes a new spatial multivariate count model to jointly analyze the traffic crash-related counts of pedestrians and bicyclists by injury severity. The modeling framework is applied to predict injury counts at a Census tract level, based on crash data from Manhattan, New York. The results highlight the need to use a multivariate modeling system for the analysis of injury counts by road-user type and injury severity level, while also accommodating spatial dependence effects in injury counts. / text
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Bayesian Sparse Learning for High Dimensional DataShi, Minghui January 2011 (has links)
<p>In this thesis, we develop some Bayesian sparse learning methods for high dimensional data analysis. There are two important topics that are related to the idea of sparse learning -- variable selection and factor analysis. We start with Bayesian variable selection problem in regression models. One challenge in Bayesian variable selection is to search the huge model space adequately, while identifying high posterior probability regions. In the past decades, the main focus has been on the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for these purposes. In the first part of this thesis, instead of using MCMC, we propose a new computational approach based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), which we refer to as particle stochastic search (PSS). We illustrate PSS through applications to linear regression and probit models.</p><p>Besides the Bayesian stochastic search algorithms, there is a rich literature on shrinkage and variable selection methods for high dimensional regression and classification with vector-valued parameters, such as lasso (Tibshirani, 1996) and the relevance vector machine (Tipping, 2001). Comparing with the Bayesian stochastic search algorithms, these methods does not account for model uncertainty but are more computationally efficient. In the second part of this thesis, we generalize this type of ideas to matrix valued parameters and focus on developing efficient variable selection method for multivariate regression. We propose a Bayesian shrinkage model (BSM) and an efficient algorithm for learning the associated parameters .</p><p>In the third part of this thesis, we focus on the topic of factor analysis which has been widely used in unsupervised learnings. One central problem in factor analysis is related to the determination of the number of latent factors. We propose some Bayesian model selection criteria for selecting the number of latent factors based on a graphical factor model. As it is illustrated in Chapter 4, our proposed method achieves good performance in correctly selecting the number of factors in several different settings. As for application, we implement the graphical factor model for several different purposes, such as covariance matrix estimation, latent factor regression and classification.</p> / Dissertation
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Bayesian Hidden Markov Model in Multiple Testing on Dependent Count DataSu, Weizhe January 2020 (has links)
No description available.
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Studies on Subword-based Low-Resource Neural Machine Translation: Segmentation, Encoding, and Decoding / サブワードに基づく低資源ニューラル機械翻訳に関する研究:分割、符号化、及び復号化Haiyue, Song 25 March 2024 (has links)
京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(情報学) / 甲第25423号 / 情博第861号 / 京都大学大学院情報学研究科知能情報学専攻 / (主査)特定教授 黒橋 禎夫, 教授 河原 達也, 教授 西野 恒 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Informatics / Kyoto University / DFAM
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Advances in Bayesian Modelling and Computation: Spatio-Temporal Processes, Model Assessment and Adaptive MCMCJi, Chunlin January 2009 (has links)
<p>The modelling and analysis of complex stochastic systems with increasingly large data sets, state-spaces and parameters provides major stimulus to research in Bayesian nonparametric methods and Bayesian computation. This dissertation presents advances in both nonparametric modelling and statistical computation stimulated by challenging problems of analysis in complex spatio-temporal systems and core computational issues in model fitting and model assessment. The first part of the thesis, represented by chapters 2 to 4, concerns novel, nonparametric Bayesian mixture models for spatial point processes, with advances in modelling, computation and applications in biological contexts. Chapter 2 describes and develops models for spatial point processes in which the point outcomes are latent, where indirect observations related to the point outcomes are available, and in which the underlying spatial intensity functions are typically highly heterogenous. Spatial intensities of inhomogeneous Poisson processes are represented via flexible nonparametric Bayesian mixture models. Computational approaches are presented for this new class of spatial point process mixtures and extended to the context of unobserved point process outcomes. Two examples drawn from a central, motivating context, that of immunofluorescence histology analysis in biological studies generating high-resolution imaging data, demonstrate the modelling approach and computational methodology. Chapters 3 and 4 extend this framework to define a class of flexible Bayesian nonparametric models for inhomogeneous spatio-temporal point processes, adding dynamic models for underlying intensity patterns. Dependent Dirichlet process mixture models are introduced as core components of this new time-varying spatial model. Utilizing such nonparametric mixture models for the spatial process intensity functions allows the introduction of time variation via dynamic, state-space models for parameters characterizing the intensities. Bayesian inference and model-fitting is addressed via novel particle filtering ideas and methods. Illustrative simulation examples include studies in problems of extended target tracking and substantive data analysis in cell fluorescent microscopic imaging tracking problems.</p><p>The second part of the thesis, consisting of chapters 5 and chapter 6, concerns advances in computational methods for some core and generic Bayesian inferential problems. Chapter 5 develops a novel approach to estimation of upper and lower bounds for marginal likelihoods in Bayesian modelling using refinements of existing variational methods. Traditional variational approaches only provide lower bound estimation; this new lower/upper bound analysis is able to provide accurate and tight bounds in many problems, so facilitates more reliable computation for Bayesian model comparison while also providing a way to assess adequacy of variational densities as approximations to exact, intractable posteriors. The advances also include demonstration of the significant improvements that may be achieved in marginal likelihood estimation by marginalizing some parameters in the model. A distinct contribution to Bayesian computation is covered in Chapter 6. This concerns a generic framework for designing adaptive MCMC algorithms, emphasizing the adaptive Metropolized independence sampler and an effective adaptation strategy using a family of mixture distribution proposals. This work is coupled with development of a novel adaptive approach to computation in nonparametric modelling with large data sets; here a sequential learning approach is defined that iteratively utilizes smaller data subsets. Under the general framework of importance sampling based marginal likelihood computation, the proposed adaptive Monte Carlo method and sequential learning approach can facilitate improved accuracy in marginal likelihood computation. The approaches are exemplified in studies of both synthetic data examples, and in a real data analysis arising in astro-statistics.</p><p>Finally, chapter 7 summarizes the dissertation and discusses possible extensions of the specific modelling and computational innovations, as well as potential future work.</p> / Dissertation
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Parental attitudes toward children walking and bicycling to school : a multivariate ordered response analysisSeraj, Saamiya 16 February 2012 (has links)
Recent research suggests that, besides traditional socio-demographic and built environment attributes, the attitudes and perceptions of parents toward walking and bicycling play a crucial role in deciding their children’s mode choice to school. However, very little is known about the factors that shape these parental attitudes toward their children actively commuting to school. The current study aims to investigate this unexplored avenue of research and identify the influences on parental attitudes toward their children walking and bicycling to school, as part of a larger nationwide effort to make children more physically active and combat rising trends of childhood obesity in the US. Through the use of a multivariate ordered response model (a model structure that allows different attitudes to be correlated), the current study analyses five different parental attitudes toward their children walking and bicycling to school, based on data drawn from the California add-on sample of the 2009 National Household Travel Survey. In particular, the subsample from the Los Angeles – Riverside – Orange County area is used in this study to take advantage of a rich set of micro-accessibility measures that is available for this region. It is found that school accessibility, work patterns, current mode use in the household, and socio-demographic characteristics shape parental attitudes toward children walking and bicycling to school. The study findings provide insights on policies, strategies, and campaigns that may help shift parental attitudes to be more favourable toward their children walking and bicycling to school. / text
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Accommodating flexible spatial and social dependency structures in discrete choice models of activity-based travel demand modelingSener, Ipek N. 09 November 2010 (has links)
Spatial and social dependence shape human activity-travel pattern decisions and their antecedent choices. Although the transportation literature has long recognized the importance of considering spatial and social dependencies in modeling individuals’ choice behavior, there has been less research on techniques to accommodate these dependencies in discrete choice models, mainly because of the modeling complexities introduced by such interdependencies. The main goal of this dissertation, therefore, is to propose new modeling approaches for accommodating flexible spatial and social dependency structures in discrete choice models within the broader context of activity-based travel demand modeling. The primary objectives of this dissertation research are three-fold. The first objective is to develop a discrete choice modeling methodology that explicitly incorporates spatial dependency (or correlation) across location choice alternatives (whether the choice alternatives are contiguous or non-contiguous). This is achieved by incorporating flexible spatial correlations and patterns using a closed-form Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) structure. The second objective is to propose new approaches to accommodate spatial dependency (or correlation) across observational units for different aspatial discrete choice models, including binary choice and ordered-response choice models. This is achieved by adopting different copula-based methodologies, which offer flexible dependency structures to test for different forms of dependencies. Further, simple and practical approaches are proposed, obviating the need for any kind of simulation machinery and methods for estimation. Finally, the third objective is to formulate an enhanced methodology to capture the social dependency (or correlation) across observational units. In particular, a clustered copula-based approach is formulated to recognize the potential dependence due to cluster effects (such as family-related effects) in an ordered-response context. The proposed approaches are empirically applied in the context of both spatial and aspatial choice situations, including residential location and activity participation choices. In particular, the results show that ignoring spatial and social dependencies, when present, can lead to inconsistent and inefficient parameter estimates that, in turn, can result in misinformed policy actions and recommendations. The approaches proposed in this research are simple, flexible and easy-to-implement, applicable to data sets of any size, do not require any simulation machinery, and do not impose any restrictive assumptions on the dependency structure. / text
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Analysis of price transmission and asymmetric adjustment using Bayesian econometric methodologyAcquah, Henry de-Graft 31 January 2008 (has links)
No description available.
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Advanced Monte Carlo Methods with Applications in FinanceJoshua Chi Chun Chan Unknown Date (has links)
The main objective of this thesis is to develop novel Monte Carlo techniques with emphasis on various applications in finance and economics, particularly in the fields of risk management and asset returns modeling. New stochastic algorithms are developed for rare-event probability estimation, combinatorial optimization, parameter estimation and model selection. The contributions of this thesis are fourfold. Firstly, we study an NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem, the Winner Determination Problem (WDP) in combinatorial auctions, where buyers can bid on bundles of items rather than bidding on them sequentially. We present two randomized algorithms, namely, the cross-entropy (CE) method and the ADAptive Mulitilevel splitting (ADAM) algorithm, to solve two versions of the WDP. Although an efficient deterministic algorithm has been developed for one version of the WDP, it is not applicable for the other version considered. In addition, the proposed algorithms are straightforward and easy to program, and do not require specialized software. Secondly, two major applications of conditional Monte Carlo for estimating rare-event probabilities are presented: a complex bridge network reliability model and several generalizations of the widely popular normal copula model used in managing portfolio credit risk. We show how certain efficient conditional Monte Carlo estimators developed for simple settings can be extended to handle complex models involving hundreds or thousands of random variables. In particular, by utilizing an asymptotic description on how the rare event occurs, we derive algorithms that are not only easy to implement, but also compare favorably to existing estimators. Thirdly, we make a contribution at the methodological front by proposing an improvement of the standard CE method for estimation. The improved method is relevant, as recent research has shown that in some high-dimensional settings the likelihood ratio degeneracy problem becomes severe and the importance sampling estimator obtained from the CE algorithm becomes unreliable. In contrast, the performance of the improved variant does not deteriorate as the dimension of the problem increases. Its utility is demonstrated via a high-dimensional estimation problem in risk management, namely, a recently proposed t-copula model for credit risk. We show that even in this high-dimensional model that involves hundreds of random variables, the proposed method performs remarkably well, and compares favorably to existing importance sampling estimators. Furthermore, the improved CE algorithm is then applied to estimating the marginal likelihood, a quantity that is fundamental in Bayesian model comparison and Bayesian model averaging. We present two empirical examples to demonstrate the proposed approach. The first example involves women's labor market participation and we compare three different binary response models in order to find the one best fits the data. The second example utilizes two vector autoregressive (VAR) models to analyze the interdependence and structural stability of four U.S. macroeconomic time series: GDP growth, unemployment rate, interest rate, and inflation. Lastly, we contribute to the growing literature of asset returns modeling by proposing several novel models that explicitly take into account various recent findings in the empirical finance literature. Specifically, two classes of stylized facts are particularly important. The first set is concerned with the marginal distributions of asset returns. One prominent feature of asset returns is that the tails of their distributions are heavier than those of the normal---large returns (in absolute value) occur much more frequently than one might expect from a normally distributed random variable. Another robust empirical feature of asset returns is skewness, where the tails of the distributions are not symmetric---losses are observed more frequently than large gains. The second set of stylized facts is concerned with the dependence structure among asset returns. Recent empirical studies have cast doubts on the adequacy of the linear dependence structure implied by the multivariate normal specification. For example, data from various asset markets, including equities, currencies and commodities markets, indicate the presence of extreme co-movement in asset returns, and this observation is again incompatible with the usual assumption that asset returns are jointly normally distributed. In light of the aforementioned empirical findings, we consider various novel models that generalize the usual normal specification. We develop efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to estimate the proposed models. Moreover, since the number of plausible models is large, we perform a formal Bayesian model comparison to determine the model that best fits the data. In this way, we can directly compare the two approaches of modeling asset returns: copula models and the joint modeling of returns.
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MCMC estimation of panel gravity models in the presence of network dependenceLeSage, James P., Fischer, Manfred M. 02 October 2018 (has links) (PDF)
Past focus in the panel gravity literature has been on multidimensional fixed effects specifications in an effort to accommodate heterogeneity. After introducing fixed effects for each origin-
destination dyad and time-period speciffic effects, we find evidence of cross-sectional dependence in flows.
We propose a simultaneous dependence gravity model that allows for network dependence in flows, along with computationally efficient MCMC estimation methods that produce a Monte Carlo integration estimate of log-marginal likelihood useful for model comparison.
Application of the model to a panel of trade flows points to network spillover effects, suggesting
the presence of network dependence and biased estimates from conventional trade flow specifications. / Series: Working Papers in Regional Science
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