The gold price has a widespread influence on industry practitioners and country reserve managers. The market view on the gold price is also an integral part of the hedging programmes of mining companies and jewellers. Similarly, many studies have explored the roles of gold as an alternative asset for tactical trading or portfolio diversification and as a strategic asset in country reserve. In this thesis, the understanding of the economics of gold's return is advanced by studying the effects of monetary policy stance, macroeconomic, and financial variables on the gold price.;Some empirical studies have investigated the determinants of the gold price by modelling its changes in relation to the changes in macroeconomic and financial variables; these studies have generated mixed results, depending on the variables and sample periods chosen. Their divergence may also suggest the omission of other critical driving factors for the gold price.;Monetary conditions are considered as one of the gold price drivers. Most studies on the relationship between monetary policy and the gold price have used US interest rates as an indicator of monetary policy stance; however, interest rates may not be representative of money supply shocks in the post-crisis period. In the past, central banks that adopted standard monetary policy would increase the money supply by lowering interest rates; the gold price thus reacts positively due to increased market liquidity. However, during the past 9 years, compared with standard monetary policy, "unconventional monetary policy" has applied even greater influence on asset prices. In response to the lingering influence of the global financial crisis, the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) began implementing two unconventional monetary tools, namely forward guidance and quantitative easing (QE). QE is designed to be implemented when overnight interest rates are near zero and involves the US Fed buying long-term assets from commercial banks. This raises the money supply and asset prices and suppresses long-term yield. In the past few years, other major economies such as the United Kingdom, Eurozone, China, and Japan have also undertaken similar QE programmes. Therefore, whether and to what extent these unconventional monetary policy tools which are currently in effect may affect the gold price warrants examination.;The focuses and objectives of empirical studies have been varied; no studies have specifically examined the influence of international money supply. At the macro level, parameters have been heavily focused on data from the United States and European countries. Thus, previous studies may have been prone to a narrow focus on the United States or other factors. This thesis addresses these gaps in the literature.;In this study, an econometric analysis is performed to identify the determinants of the gold price. US dollar exchange rate is identified as the key variable for most of the sample period before the implementation of QE, among other factors. However, after the introduction of the unconventional monetary policy, international money supply became the most dominant factor. This study reveals that at times when there are drivers in force that would lead to a change in inflation or inflation expectation, the store of value property of gold is triggered and these price determinants dominate; as in the case of international money supply in the post-crisis period.

M.Com. (Economics) / The gold sector has historically made an extremely important contribution to the total external revenue earnings of South Africa. Gold is traded on the international markets at a price which is determined daily through supply and demand and quoted in American dollar terms. South Africa is one of the largest producers of gold in the world and despite this it has no control over the international gold price. Local producers get paid in rands for their production. Because the international gold price is determined in American dollar terms and local producers get paid in rands the exchange rate is extremely important to local gold producers. If the dollar/gold price is compared to rand/dollar gold price in the long term there is a definite pattern. From 1980 to 1990 it can clearly be seen that if the gold price rises or declines the exchange rate has depreciated or appreciated. Since 1990 the dollar/gold price declined steadily until 1993 when it recovered somewhat. The rand exchange rate has not in the past depreciated in relation to the decline in the gold price. A sharp depreciation of the rand since 1990 has been experienced. The question that arises is that has the deviation in the long term relation between the rand/dollar exchange rate and the gold price since 1990 just been temporary in nature or was there a fundamental change? Since 1990 the dollar/gold price has declined from American $383.55 to $324.86 in October 1997. Over the same period the rand has depreciated from 258.17 cent to 470.90 cents for a dollar. Over the whole period the rand has hardly shown signs of appreciation whilst there were sporadic increases in the gold price. Government policy changed in 1990 and the focus moved to inflation control. A sharp increase of nett capital from South Africa was noted since 1990.

M.Com. / Please refer to full text to view abstract

Lu, Chenxi. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2009. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 53-60). / Abstract also in Chinese. / Chapter Chapter 1: --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter Chapter 2: --- Methodology --- p.5 / Chapter 2.1: --- Modified Rescaled Range Statistic R/S --- p.5 / Chapter 2.2: --- Fractionally Integrated GARCH (FIGARCH) Model --- p.7 / Chapter Chapter 3: --- Long memory in gold returns and volatility --- p.9 / Chapter 3.1: --- Data --- p.9 / Chapter 3.2: --- Empirical results of the modified R/S statistic and FIGARCH model --- p.11 / Chapter 3.3 --- Self-similarity of long memory in the gold market --- p.15 / Chapter Chapter 4: --- Structural break of long memory in the gold market --- p.18 / Chapter 4.1: --- Structural break in long memory feature --- p.18 / Chapter 4.2: --- Forward rolling and backward rolling methodology and empirical evidence --- p.20 / Chapter 4.3: --- Evidence for the structural break using the FIGARCH model --- p.31 / Chapter Chapter 5: --- Long memory in the international diamond market --- p.40 / Chapter 5.1: --- International diamond cartel --- p.40 / Chapter 5.2: --- Data --- p.43 / Chapter 5.3: --- Empirical results --- p.45 / Chapter Chapter 6: --- Conclusions --- p.51 / Reference --- p.53 / Appendix 1 --- p.61

References appear at the end of each chapter / The importance of gold in the development of South Africa as an industrialised economy cannot be over - emphasised. Towards the end of the 19th century the economy depended almost entirely on the production of gold and diamonds which laid the foundation for a highly - developed national economy. With gold still continuing to play an important role coupled with the recent price increases, a need was felt to investigate the potential effect of higher prices on gold production in South Africa. For reasons set out in the study, it was decided to compare potential out put for five different gold prices. A gold price received by the mines of 050 per ounce was used as abase. Further calculations were made at 060, 070, 0100 and 0150 per ounce. The calculations for all the cases were done duri ng the period when the Rand was floating with the Pound Sterling and a Rand : Dollar parity of 1:1, 2 4 was used. Since then two parity changes occured : the Rand was pegged to the Dollar on the 25th October, 1972 to give a Rand : Dollar parity of 1:1,27732, and the Dollar was devalued on the 13th February, 1973 by 1 1,1 % to give the present Rand : Dollar parity of 1:1, 4192. The e ffect of the above two parity changes is that revenue in Dollar terms is overstated by 14,45 5%. It is suggested that for purposes of this study the Rand figures be accepted and wherever Dollars are used in future estimates these be increased by the afore-mentioned 14, 455%. In Dollar terms the five Cases analised will change as follows: Case A : 5350 becomes 057, 23 per ounce Case B : 260 becomes 068, 67 per ounce Case C : 270 becomes 080,12 per ounce Case D : 0100 becomes 0114 ,46 per ounce Case E : 0150 becomes 0171, 68 per ounce To do an in-depth investigation into the effects of higher gold prices on each individual mine, it was necessary to analyse the various parameters required in the determination of gold p r oduction, revenue, lease and tax payments , and dividends. For each mine the pay limits at the various gold prices and at estimated working cost levels, were determined . Graphs of the estimated tonnages at various pay limits as well as the average grade of ore mineable at these limits were determined. From these graphs it is possible to obtain the total tonnage mi neable at various pay limits. Once the foregoing parameters were obtained for each mine, it was possible to determine annual gold production, revenue, lease and tax payments and amounts available to share holders which are then summarised in tables and illustrated in graphs. For ease of reference the mines were divided up into geographica l areas. Gold production revenue, lease and tax payments to the State and the amounts available to shareholders are summarised and compared for the various gold prices. The summaries show bold production remaining fairly constant at or just below the present level of about 900 000 kilograms per year until 1978 for Case A, 1979 for Cases B and C, 1983 for Case D, and 1984 for Case E. before declining progressively thereafter. Revenue following the same pattern as gold production for Case A , as is to be expected, but increasing to a peak of R1 466 million in 1977 for Case B before progressively declining, increasing to a peak of R2 434 million in 1982 for Case D before progressively declining, increasing to a peak of R3 478 million in 1983 for Case E but remaining above the 1973 level of R1 254 million until the year 2005. Lease and tax payments and amounts available to share-holders following the same pattern as that indicated by revenue reaching peaks of respectively R390 million and R268 million for Case B R485 million and R339 million for Case C R756 million and R536 million for Case D R1 000 million and R779 million for Case E. Following the recent monetary unrest, gold prices assumed for 1973 are too conservative. Should the present gold price of about $80 and the 1972 level of production of 909 000 kilograms continue for the remainder of 1973, then gold production, revenue, lease and tax payments and dividends as shown for Case C for the year 1975 will be applicable for 1973. This shams gold production of 919 520 kilograms, gold revenue of R 1690 million, lease and tax payments of R465 million, and dividends of R339 million. The effect of the higher gold price can be clearly seen when the fore-going figures are compared with the 1971 totals of gold production of 97 6,600 kilogr ams , revenue of R396 million from gold, lease and tax payments of approximately R139 million, and dividends of R142 million . Despite a decline in gold production, revenue is expected to be up by 8 9 % whilst lease and tax payments increase by 2 35% compared with a dividend increase of 139%. Finally certain tax concessions to increase productivity and the rebuy alleviate the labour shortage, prolong the li ves of the mines by mining lower grade ore, and encourage exploration was investigated and suggestions made. / Business Management / D. Com.

References appear at the end of each chapter / The importance of gold in the development of South Africa as an industrialised economy cannot be over - emphasised. Towards the end of the 19th century the economy depended almost entirely on the production of gold and diamonds which laid the foundation for a highly - developed national economy. With gold still continuing to play an important role coupled with the recent price increases, a need was felt to investigate the potential effect of higher prices on gold production in South Africa. For reasons set out in the study, it was decided to compare potential out put for five different gold prices. A gold price received by the mines of 050 per ounce was used as abase. Further calculations were made at 060, 070, 0100 and 0150 per ounce. The calculations for all the cases were done duri ng the period when the Rand was floating with the Pound Sterling and a Rand : Dollar parity of 1:1, 2 4 was used. Since then two parity changes occured : the Rand was pegged to the Dollar on the 25th October, 1972 to give a Rand : Dollar parity of 1:1,27732, and the Dollar was devalued on the 13th February, 1973 by 1 1,1 % to give the present Rand : Dollar parity of 1:1, 4192. The e ffect of the above two parity changes is that revenue in Dollar terms is overstated by 14,45 5%. It is suggested that for purposes of this study the Rand figures be accepted and wherever Dollars are used in future estimates these be increased by the afore-mentioned 14, 455%. In Dollar terms the five Cases analised will change as follows: Case A : 5350 becomes 057, 23 per ounce Case B : 260 becomes 068, 67 per ounce Case C : 270 becomes 080,12 per ounce Case D : 0100 becomes 0114 ,46 per ounce Case E : 0150 becomes 0171, 68 per ounce To do an in-depth investigation into the effects of higher gold prices on each individual mine, it was necessary to analyse the various parameters required in the determination of gold p r oduction, revenue, lease and tax payments , and dividends. For each mine the pay limits at the various gold prices and at estimated working cost levels, were determined . Graphs of the estimated tonnages at various pay limits as well as the average grade of ore mineable at these limits were determined. From these graphs it is possible to obtain the total tonnage mi neable at various pay limits. Once the foregoing parameters were obtained for each mine, it was possible to determine annual gold production, revenue, lease and tax payments and amounts available to share holders which are then summarised in tables and illustrated in graphs. For ease of reference the mines were divided up into geographica l areas. Gold production revenue, lease and tax payments to the State and the amounts available to shareholders are summarised and compared for the various gold prices. The summaries show bold production remaining fairly constant at or just below the present level of about 900 000 kilograms per year until 1978 for Case A, 1979 for Cases B and C, 1983 for Case D, and 1984 for Case E. before declining progressively thereafter. Revenue following the same pattern as gold production for Case A , as is to be expected, but increasing to a peak of R1 466 million in 1977 for Case B before progressively declining, increasing to a peak of R2 434 million in 1982 for Case D before progressively declining, increasing to a peak of R3 478 million in 1983 for Case E but remaining above the 1973 level of R1 254 million until the year 2005. Lease and tax payments and amounts available to share-holders following the same pattern as that indicated by revenue reaching peaks of respectively R390 million and R268 million for Case B R485 million and R339 million for Case C R756 million and R536 million for Case D R1 000 million and R779 million for Case E. Following the recent monetary unrest, gold prices assumed for 1973 are too conservative. Should the present gold price of about $80 and the 1972 level of production of 909 000 kilograms continue for the remainder of 1973, then gold production, revenue, lease and tax payments and dividends as shown for Case C for the year 1975 will be applicable for 1973. This shams gold production of 919 520 kilograms, gold revenue of R 1690 million, lease and tax payments of R465 million, and dividends of R339 million. The effect of the higher gold price can be clearly seen when the fore-going figures are compared with the 1971 totals of gold production of 97 6,600 kilogr ams , revenue of R396 million from gold, lease and tax payments of approximately R139 million, and dividends of R142 million . Despite a decline in gold production, revenue is expected to be up by 8 9 % whilst lease and tax payments increase by 2 35% compared with a dividend increase of 139%. Finally certain tax concessions to increase productivity and the rebuy alleviate the labour shortage, prolong the li ves of the mines by mining lower grade ore, and encourage exploration was investigated and suggestions made. / Business Management / D. Com.

That Ghana derives her foreign exchange earnings mainly from cocoa and gold exports cannot be over emphasised. There is therefore the need to forecast these commodities prices as accurately as possible for proper planning and execution of major policies, since the prices have been notoriously volatile during the past two decades and attempts to stabilize especially the price of the beans (which contributes about 60% of the country's foreign exchange) through the system of buffer stock and export restrictions have not been successful. In this regard, autoregressive integrated moving averages models are built and used to generate short run forecasts for the beans and the precious metal price series. These models are simple to build and appear not only to describe the behaviour of the series but provide good forecasts of the prices.

No description available.

Thesis (M.A. Commerce (Economics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2019 / South Africa had targeted the oil and gas sector for investment through the industrial action plan as a special economic zone. However, certain economic fundamentals might negate the anticipated sector financial development. This study investigate how economic risk exposure influence oil & gas sector stock market returns from 2007 to 2015 on a monthly basis. The four macroeconomic variables used to measure economic risk exposure are Brent crude oil prices, the USD/ZAR exchange rate, broad money supply and gold prices. The adopted techniques include the GARCH model to incorporate volatility, the Johansen cointegration and Granger causality techniques. The results of the study found that change in Brent crude oil prices and broad money supply had a positive and significant impact on changes in oil & gas sector stock returns. Changes in exchange rate and gold prices had a negative and significant impact on the sector returns. The long-run relationship established one cointegrating equation in the series. Only Brent crude oil prices indicated a bi-directional Granger causality on the sector returns. Based on the findings, it is recommended that government may use exchange rate as a policy tool to attract interest in the sector. Regarding money supply, the reserve bank should further preserve its effective regulatory infrastructure including the laws, regulations and standards towards the achievement and maintenance of a stable financial system. Portfolio managers, risk managers and investors should monitor the gold price to mitigate losses due to its strength as a safe haven asset.

This master thesis, Analysis and Influences of Fundamental news on Gold Prices deals with macroeconomic variables that drive the price of gold. This paper is divided into three chapters: Possible investment forms in gold, Fundamental analysis of commodities, and lastly Analysis of impact of strong economies and their influence on gold prices. In the first chapter, emphasis is put on the Efficient Market Theory that plays an important role in success or failure of investment strategies such as technical and fundamental analysis. The second chapter illustrates the Commitment of Traders (COT) report and how it is used as a tool to predict the movement of gold prices. This chapter also discusses other large drivers effecting gold prices such as financial and geopolitical stability, inflation, interest rates, Central Banking operations, the value of the US dollar, and other influences. The final chapter analyzes the impact of announced fundamental news in the United States, China, and Europe on the price of gold. The empirical part of this paper analysis the impact of announced fundamental news in United States, China and Europe on gold prices. With the use of the linear regression method, we can test whether the macroeconomic variables significantly influence the return on gold investments immediately after their announcement, or over long periods of time. If this new public data was calculated into gold prices directly, investors would not be able to achieve additional returns by using fundamental analysis. The major findings are summed up at the end of the last chapter.