The Republic of Moldova: The very existence of this country is not widely known around the world, especially in the United States. When mentioning the country in an international context, journalists and political leaders refer to Moldova’s status as Europe’s poorest country, its two-year struggle to elect a president, or its breakaway region of Transnistria. In a reemerging Russia, however, the Republic of Moldova is of considerable strategic importance. Because of Moldova’s geographic location and ethnic make-up, Russia has a genuine interest in ensuring that Moldova maintains the status quo and continues to be a poor, divided, and weak state. Based on the lack of a national identity, an absent economy, and a struggling government; it is questionable whether or not Moldova should be an independent state in the first place. This report will argue that despite attractive prospects for Moldova to unite with Romania or integrate into the European Union, Russia will ensure that it remains an independent, yet divided country. / text

<p>Instability in the administration of municipalities is a particularly serious problem in the Western Cape because of its large number of coalition councils. Coalitions have led to<br /> frequent changes in local governance and to constant changes in political and administrative leadership. Due to the fluidity in local government, the politics of the day have become synonymous with back-stabbing, secret agreements and arrangements between politicians and political parties wishing to align themselves in such a way as to gain control of the councils.1 A municipality is required by the Constitution2 to structure and manage its administration and budgets, budgeting and planning processes so as to give priority to the basic needs of the community and to promote the social and economic development of the community.3 Legislation further prescribes that &ldquo / a municipality must within its administrative and financial capacity establish and organize its administration in a manner that would enable the municipality to establish clear relationships, facilitate coordination, cooperation and communication between (i) its political structures and political office bearers and its administration / (ii) its political structures, political office bearers and administration and the local community&rdquo / .4 It may therefore be argued that a municipality subscribing to the abovementioned prescripts should be functioning effectively. However, in practice continuous administrative and political instability adversely impacts on a municipality‟s capacity to provide service delivery to the community. The 2006 local government elections resulted in only four out of 30 municipalities in the Western Cape having a single party with more than 50% of the seats (outright majority). The remaining 26 municipalities were governed by coalitions of two or more parties. In 2001, Parliament introduced floor-crossing legislation which allowed Members of Parliament, Members of Provincial Legislatures and local government councillors to change their political party (or form a new party) and retains their seats when they did so.5 As a result of the 2007 floor-crossing legislation, the number of municipalities with an outright majority increased to 7. Power changes continued to occur even after the 2007 floor-crossing as a result of by-election outcomes or new internal coalition arrangements. Coalition government in the Western Cape remains a reality following the 18 May 2011 local government elections: the Democratic Alliance won 12 municipalities outright, the African National Congress won 1, and in 12 municipalities there was no outright winner. Of the 12 last-mentioned municipalities, 7 municipalities produced hung municipalities, i.e. Bitou, Witzenberg, Laingsburg, Hessequa, Theewaterskloof, Matzikama and Prince Albert.</p>

<p>Instability in the administration of municipalities is a particularly serious problem in the Western Cape because of its large number of coalition councils. Coalitions have led to<br /> frequent changes in local governance and to constant changes in political and administrative leadership. Due to the fluidity in local government, the politics of the day have become synonymous with back-stabbing, secret agreements and arrangements between politicians and political parties wishing to align themselves in such a way as to gain control of the councils.1 A municipality is required by the Constitution2 to structure and manage its administration and budgets, budgeting and planning processes so as to give priority to the basic needs of the community and to promote the social and economic development of the community.3 Legislation further prescribes that &ldquo / a municipality must within its administrative and financial capacity establish and organize its administration in a manner that would enable the municipality to establish clear relationships, facilitate coordination, cooperation and communication between (i) its political structures and political office bearers and its administration / (ii) its political structures, political office bearers and administration and the local community&rdquo / .4 It may therefore be argued that a municipality subscribing to the abovementioned prescripts should be functioning effectively. However, in practice continuous administrative and political instability adversely impacts on a municipality‟s capacity to provide service delivery to the community. The 2006 local government elections resulted in only four out of 30 municipalities in the Western Cape having a single party with more than 50% of the seats (outright majority). The remaining 26 municipalities were governed by coalitions of two or more parties. In 2001, Parliament introduced floor-crossing legislation which allowed Members of Parliament, Members of Provincial Legislatures and local government councillors to change their political party (or form a new party) and retains their seats when they did so.5 As a result of the 2007 floor-crossing legislation, the number of municipalities with an outright majority increased to 7. Power changes continued to occur even after the 2007 floor-crossing as a result of by-election outcomes or new internal coalition arrangements. Coalition government in the Western Cape remains a reality following the 18 May 2011 local government elections: the Democratic Alliance won 12 municipalities outright, the African National Congress won 1, and in 12 municipalities there was no outright winner. Of the 12 last-mentioned municipalities, 7 municipalities produced hung municipalities, i.e. Bitou, Witzenberg, Laingsburg, Hessequa, Theewaterskloof, Matzikama and Prince Albert.</p>

This thesis is rooted in the research tradition known as coalition politics, where governments, political parties and political institutions are the central focus. The main emphasis here is on government instability and the question of why governments in modern parliamentary democracies often come to an end before the next regular election. In five distinct but interrelated papers, the thesis explores the issue of early government termination and how it is affected by public support, economic developments and the functioning of the state apparatus. The studies included in this thesis generally take a quantitative approach and make use of a dataset that contains 640 governments in 29 European democracies. Their joint goal is to improve our understanding of when early termination happens by introducing and testing new explanatory factors as well as by improving how previously identified factors are modelled. The first paper focuses on Central and Eastern Europe. It shows that the stability of governments in that region is affected by slightly different factors than those that impact on governments in Western Europe. In particular, ideological factors and political institutions are found to be less important in Central and Eastern Europe while the formal power basis of the government and the country’s economic performance matter more. In the second paper, co-authored with Professor Torbjörn Bergman, the state is brought into government stability research. The paper shows that countries with a lower quality of governance and a less efficient public sector have less stable governments. This is mainly because government parties struggle to achieve their policy goals when the state apparatus is inefficient and corrupt. Paper 3, co-written with Associate Professor Johan Hellström, looks at how different types of governments respond to economic challenges. In particular, this paper demonstrates that the same changes in economic circumstances (e.g. increases in unemployment or inflation) have different effects on cabinet stability depending on which type of government is in charge. Single party governments are better equipped to deal with economic changes, because they are better positioned to devise new policy responses without having to compromise with other parties. Coalition governments, in contrast, become significantly more likely to terminate early when the economy takes a turn for the worse. Finally, over the course of two papers I first explore new techniques for analysing polling data and then use them to empirically test whether governments sometimes choose termination as a way to cope with bad poll numbers. Most of the existing techniques for pooling polls and forecasting elections were explicitly designed with two party systems in mind. In Paper 4, I test some of these techniques to determine their usefulness in complex, multiparty systems, and I develop some improvements that enable us to take advantage of more of the information in the data. In the final paper, I combine the two themes of polling and government stability by looking at how changes in government popularity affect the likelihood of premature dissolution. I find that governments, particularly single party governments, do, in fact, use terminations as a strategic response to changes in their popularity among the public. When support is high, governments tend to opportunistically call an early election, whereas they tend to abandon or reshuffle the government when support is low.