This thesis is rooted in the research tradition known as coalition politics, where governments, political parties and political institutions are the central focus. The main emphasis here is on government instability and the question of why governments in modern parliamentary democracies often come to an end before the next regular election. In five distinct but interrelated papers, the thesis explores the issue of early government termination and how it is affected by public support, economic developments and the functioning of the state apparatus. The studies included in this thesis generally take a quantitative approach and make use of a dataset that contains 640 governments in 29 European democracies. Their joint goal is to improve our understanding of when early termination happens by introducing and testing new explanatory factors as well as by improving how previously identified factors are modelled. The first paper focuses on Central and Eastern Europe. It shows that the stability of governments in that region is affected by slightly different factors than those that impact on governments in Western Europe. In particular, ideological factors and political institutions are found to be less important in Central and Eastern Europe while the formal power basis of the government and the country’s economic performance matter more. In the second paper, co-authored with Professor Torbjörn Bergman, the state is brought into government stability research. The paper shows that countries with a lower quality of governance and a less efficient public sector have less stable governments. This is mainly because government parties struggle to achieve their policy goals when the state apparatus is inefficient and corrupt. Paper 3, co-written with Associate Professor Johan Hellström, looks at how different types of governments respond to economic challenges. In particular, this paper demonstrates that the same changes in economic circumstances (e.g. increases in unemployment or inflation) have different effects on cabinet stability depending on which type of government is in charge. Single party governments are better equipped to deal with economic changes, because they are better positioned to devise new policy responses without having to compromise with other parties. Coalition governments, in contrast, become significantly more likely to terminate early when the economy takes a turn for the worse. Finally, over the course of two papers I first explore new techniques for analysing polling data and then use them to empirically test whether governments sometimes choose termination as a way to cope with bad poll numbers. Most of the existing techniques for pooling polls and forecasting elections were explicitly designed with two party systems in mind. In Paper 4, I test some of these techniques to determine their usefulness in complex, multiparty systems, and I develop some improvements that enable us to take advantage of more of the information in the data. In the final paper, I combine the two themes of polling and government stability by looking at how changes in government popularity affect the likelihood of premature dissolution. I find that governments, particularly single party governments, do, in fact, use terminations as a strategic response to changes in their popularity among the public. When support is high, governments tend to opportunistically call an early election, whereas they tend to abandon or reshuffle the government when support is low.

In this doctoral dissertation three proposed approaches were evaluated using two databases of different languages, one American-English and one Greek. The proposed approaches were compared to the state-of-the-art models in the phone duration modelling task. The SVR model outperformed all the other individual models evaluated in this dissertation. Their ability to outperform all the other models is mainly based on their advantage of coping in a better way with high-dimensionality feature spaces in respect to the other models used in phone duration modelling, which makes them appropriate even for the case when the amount of the training data would be small respectively to the number of the feature set used. The proposed fusion scheme, taking advantage of the observation that different prediction algorithms perform better in different conditions, when implemented with SVR (SVR-fusion), contributed to the improvement of the phone duration prediction accuracy over that of the best individual model (SVR). Furthermore the SVR-fusion model managed to reduce the outliers in respect to the best individual model (SVR). Moreover, the proposed two-stage scheme using individual phone duration models as feature constructors in the first stage and feature vector extension (FVE) in the second stage, implemented with SVR (SVR-FVE), improved the prediction accuracy over the best individual predictor (SVR), and the SVR-fusion scheme and moreover managed to reduce the outliers in respect to the other two proposed schemes (SVR and SVR-fusion). The SVR two-stage scheme confirms in this way their advantage over all the other algorithms of coping well with high-dimensionality feature sets. The improved accuracy of phone duration modelling contributes to a better control of the prosody, and thus quality of synthetic speech. Furthermore, the first proposed method (SVR) was also evaluated on the phone duration modelling task in emotional speech, outperforming all the state-of-the-art models in all the emotional categories. Finally, perceptual tests were performed evaluating the impact of the proposed phone duration models to synthetic speech. The perceptual test for both the databases confirmed the results of objective tests showing the improvement achieved by the proposed models in the naturalness of synthesized speech. / Η παρούσα διδακτορική διατριβή πραγματεύεται προβλήματα που αφορούν στο χώρο της τεχνολογίας ομιλίας, με στόχο την μοντελοποίηση προσωδίας με χρήση τεχνικών μηχανικής μάθησης στα πλαίσια ουδέτερης και συναισθηματικής συνθετικής ομιλίας. Μελετήθηκαν τρεις καινοτόμες μέθοδοι μοντελοποίησης προσωδίας, οι οποίες αξιολογήθηκαν με αντικειμενικά τεστ και με υποκειμενικά τεστ ποιότητας ομιλίας για την συνεισφορά τους στην βελτίωση της ποιότητα της συνθετικής ομιλίας: Η πρώτη τεχνική μοντελοποίησης διάρκειας φωνημάτων, βασίζεται στην μοντελοποίηση με χρήση Μηχανών Υποστήριξης Διανυσμάτων (Support Vector Regression – SVR). Η μέθοδος αυτή δεν έχει χρησιμοποιηθεί έως σήμερα στην πρόβλεψη διάρκειας φωνημάτων. Η μέθοδος αυτή συγκρίθηκε και ξεπέρασε σε απόδοση όλες τις μεθόδους της επικρατούσας τεχνολογίας (state-of-the-art) στη μοντελοποίηση της διάρκειας φωνημάτων. Η δεύτερη τεχνική, βασίζεται στην μοντελοποίηση διάρκειας φωνημάτων με συνδυαστικό μοντέλο πολλαπλών προβλέψεων. Συγκεκριμένα, οι προβλέψεις διάρκειας φωνημάτων από ένα σύνολο ανεξάρτητων μοντέλων πρόβλεψης διάρκειας φωνημάτων χρησιμοποιούνται ως είσοδος σε ένα μοντέλο μηχανικής μάθησης, το οποίο συνδυάζει τις εξόδους από τα ανεξάρτητα μοντέλα πρόβλεψης και επιτυγχάνει μοντελοποίηση της διάρκειας φωνημάτων με μεγαλύτερη ακρίβεια, μειώνοντας επιπλέον και τα μεγάλα σφάλματα (outliers), δηλαδή τα σφάλματα που βρίσκονται μακριά από το μέσο όρο των σφαλμάτων. Η τρίτη τεχνική, είναι μια μέθοδος μοντελοποίησης διάρκειας φωνημάτων δύο σταδίων με κατασκευή νέων χαρακτηριστικών και επέκταση του διανύσματος χαρακτηριστικών. Συγκεκριμένα, στο πρώτο στάδιο, ένα σύνολο ανεξάρτητων μοντέλων πρόβλεψης διάρκειας φωνημάτων που χρησιμοποιούνται ως παραγωγοί νέων χαρακτηριστικών εμπλουτίζουν το διάνυσμα χαρακτηριστικών. Στο δεύτερο στάδιο, το εμπλουτισμένο διάνυσμα χρησιμοποιείται για να εκπαιδευτεί ένα μοντέλο πρόβλεψης διάρκειας φωνημάτων το οποίο επιτυγχάνει υψηλότερη απόδοση σε σχέση με όλες τις προηγούμενες μεθόδους, και μειώνει τα μεγάλα σφάλματα. Επιπλέον εφαρμόστηκε η πρώτη μέθοδος σε συναισθηματική ομιλία. Το προτεινόμενο SVR μοντέλο επιτυγχάνει την υψηλότερη απόδοση συγκρινόμενο με όλα τα state-of-the-art μοντέλα. Τέλος, πραγματοποιήθηκαν υποκειμενικά τεστ ποιότητας ομιλίας ώστε να αξιολογηθεί η συνεισφορά των τριών προτεινόμενων μεθόδων στη βελτίωση της ποιότητας της συνθετικής ομιλίας. Τα τεστ αυτά επιβεβαίωσαν την αξία των προτεινόμενων μεθόδων και τη συνεισφορά τους στη βελτίωση της ποιότητας στην συνθετική ομιλία.