Why did a gradualist transition approach achieve different performances among socialist economies in the 1980s? Why did some socialist economies never try a gradualist approach to economic liberalization? This paper develops a model to show that the liberalization of a socialist economy has two opposite effects on the rent captured by government. The initial economic condition determines the relative strength of the two effects, and consequently the transition path and performance. In addition, a gradualist reform strategy adopted by a rent-seeking government cannot finish the transition toward a complete market economy. To achieve that goal, a new constitutional order and the rule of law are necessary.

Over the past thirty years, the presence of naïve notions, or alternate conceptions in a student population, have been consistently identified as playing a key role in the inability for students to understanding evolutionary theory (Brumby, 1979; Greene, 1990; Settlage, 1994; Ferrari and Chi, 1998). Ferrari and Chi (1998) document that most naïve notions associated with evolution education can be linked to mistaken ontological categorizations, where students associated evolutionary concepts with event process (where organisms determine implicitly or explicitly their destiny) instead of equilibration processes (ongoing, nondistinct actions) to which they belong. Research in the remediation of naïve knowledge (Ferrari and Chi, 1998; Bishop and Anderson, 1990) suggest the best way to overcome these “naïve notions” is by utilizing curriculum that (a) assess students misunderstandings, (b) present students with situations that cause them to contrast these misconceptions with current scientific theory, and to (c) gives students the opportunity to reflect on what they have learned, and explore this new information through guided learning activities. Based on this research, a teaching methodology that incorporated constructivist pedagogy with inquiry based methods, and framed the study of evolution within palentological context was tested on a classroom of college freshman during the spring of 2006. This approach was found to successfully identify and remove naïve conceptions from student understanding. Based on these results, this methodology was turned in to a distance-learning tool, consisting of a web based teaching module designed around fossil data from a subset of Kelley’s (1989) study of the molluscan fauna of the Chesapeake Group. The module mimics the classroom experience by replacing the teaching with interactive web pages, photographs, and video media detailing the processes utilized by the scientific community to identify, quantify, and interpret morphologic variation. Web module content is focused on the examination of gradual morphological change documented in two fauna of mollusks, and presented in a cross-disciplinary approach (geology, biology, and statistics) that expands the bounds of traditional science curriculum by bridging the gap between scientific research and science education. In a pilot study conducted to determine the ability for this module to be utilized in a science classroom, naïve notions were reduced by 10% when students utilized web material to examine evolutionary change. These results indicate that while effective at adding to the ability for educators to reduce student’s naïve understandings, the module is not effective at replacing traditional classroom instruction. The website can be found on the University of Vermont’s Perkins Museum of Geology homepage (http://www.uvm.edu/perkins/index.html), where visitors are asked to complete a survey in exchange for content use. The survey is part of an ongoing longitudinal study, the results of which will be quantified and used to improve and expand web content.

In this study, the corallite shapes of three species of the scleractinian genus Undaria from the Yague group, Dominican Republic, were examined through a period of time stretching from 6.4 mya to 3.4 mya, a total of 3.0 ma. Corallite shape was measured using 3 dimensional landmarks and manipulated using the well established procedures of geometric morphometrics. Differences in shape and size through time were examined using a variety of tools, including canonical variates analysis, principal components analysis, least squares regression, partial least squares regression, and a variety of evolutionary model fits. Evolutionary model fits were used to test three models against the shape and size variables: general random walk, which models a directional change through time; unbiased random walk, which models random change through time; and stasis, which models stability through time. Stasis is the most common parameter through time, supported in 9 of 15 (60%) of cases, while the unbiased random walk was supported 6 of 15 times. While there was a significant change in one species associated with environmental variables, those variables were also correlated with time and no causal relationship can be reached.

<p>Throughout the latter half of the 20^th century, many developing economies adopted a set of economic policies in order to transition to market economy. Reforms were introduced either simultaneously or gradually, fuelling the debate over whether the so-called shock-therapy reforms were more beneficial or less beneficial to growth than gradual reforms. This study focuses on the role of the mode of transition in determining the effectiveness of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). FDI is valuable for development in transition economies since it has often been a main source of investment for these types of economies. An empirical analysis was conducted using sixty transitioning countries, examining the growth up to sixteen years after the initial reform. The results indicate that there is some evidence of a difference in the effects of FDI inflows on GDP growth between the shock-therapy and gradual reformers.</p>

Throughout the latter half of the 20th century, many developing economies adopted a set of economic policies in order to transition to market economy. Reforms were introduced either simultaneously or gradually, fuelling the debate over whether the so-called shock-therapy reforms were more beneficial or less beneficial to growth than gradual reforms. This study focuses on the role of the mode of transition in determining the effectiveness of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). FDI is valuable for development in transition economies since it has often been a main source of investment for these types of economies. An empirical analysis was conducted using sixty transitioning countries, examining the growth up to sixteen years after the initial reform. The results indicate that there is some evidence of a difference in the effects of FDI inflows on GDP growth between the shock-therapy and gradual reformers.

This dissertation analyzes the obstacles against further cooperation in international economic relations. The first essay explains the gradual nature of trade liberalization. I show that existence of asymmetric information between governments provides a sufficient reason for gradualism to exist. Governments prefer starting small to reduce the cost of partner’s betrayal when there is sufficient degree of information asymmetry regarding the partner’s type. Learning about partner’s incentive structure enhances expectations, encouraging governments to increase their current level of cooperation. Specifically, the uninformed government’s subjective belief for the trading partner being good is improved as the partner acts cooperatively. This updated belief, in turn, lowers the subjective probability of future betrayal, enabling further progress in cooperation. The second essay analyzes the relationship between two countries facing two policy dilemmas in an environment with two way goods and capital flows. When issues are independent and countries are symmetric, signing separate agreements for tariffs (Free Trade Agreements-FTA) and for taxes (Tax Treaties-TT) provides the identical level of enforcement as signing a linked agreement. However, linkage can still improve the joint welfare by transferring the slack enforcement power in a case of asymmetric issues or countries. I report non-results in two cases where the policy issues are interconnected due to technological spillover effect of FDI. Moreover, I show that linking the agreements actually reduces enforcement when agreements are linked under a limited punishment rule and policy variables are strategic substitutes. The third essay investigates the welfare/enforcement consequences of linking trade and environmental agreements. In the standard literature, linking the agreements generate non-trivial results only when there is structural relation between the issues. I focus on institutional design of the linkage and show that even if environmental aspects of international trade are negligible linking the agreements might still have some interesting welfare implications under current GATT Rules. Specifically, when traded goods are substitutes in consumption, linking the environmental agreement with trade agreement under the Withdrawal of Equivalent Concession Rule (Article XXVIII) will reduce the enforcement. However, enforcement in environmental issue increases when the same rule is implemented in the absence of linkage.

Efter upplösningen av Sovjetunionens starka maktkontroll över sina satellitstater den 9:e november 1989, kunde de Centrala och Östeuropeiska länderna (förkortning CEEC på engelska) påbörja sin övergång till marknadsekonomi. Sättet att närma sig en fri marknad är indelat i två olika tillvägagångssätt – chockterapi och gradualism. Den förstnämda metoden genomförs med fokus på snabbhet och en samverkande engångsförvandling av de ekonomiska sektorerna medan den sistnämnda beaktar en grad- och stegvis omvandling. Omvandlingsprocessen i sig består av flera variabler, exempelvis privatisering av statligt ägd egendom, makroekonomisk stabilitet samt liberalisering av priser och handel. Beroende på vilken metod som valdes genomfördes de ovan nämnda variablerna vid olika tidpunkter och med varierande hastighetsgrad. Åsikterna bland ekonomer rörande vilken metod som uppnått bäst resultat är omdebatterad. Följaktligen är syftet med denna uppsats att undersöka vilken av omvandlingsmetoderna som har uppnått högst BNP per capita tillväxt i de valda CEEC under perioden 1992-2003. Tio CEEC valdes ut för att få en rättvis delning mellan de två tillvägagångssätten, med tillhörande fem länder i varje grupp. Därtill valdes fem referensländer ut, för att i en grafisk analys kunna relatera utvecklingen i omvandlingsländer till redan etablerade marknadsekonomier. De erhållna resultaten visar att val av tillvägagångssätt inom omvandlingsprocessen inte har någon signifikant inverkan på BNP per capita utvecklingen. Ländernas grundförutsättningar samt i vilken ordning variablerna implementerades visar sig troligen ha större inverkan på BNP per capita tillväxten. Dessutom visar de empiriska resultaten klara indikationer på att det finns en skillnad mellan CEEC och referensländerna. / After the resolution of the Soviet Unions strict control over its satellite with beginning on the 9th of November 1989, the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) began their transition towards a market economy. How to approach the economic system of a free market has been divided into two major policies – shock therapy and gradualism. The first policy is implemented with speed and one-shock change within the economic sectors as a focus while the second constitutes of slow and gradual implementations. The transformation process in itself consists of several variables, for e.g. privatization of state-owned properties, macroeconomic stabilization and liberalization of prices and trade. Depending on what policy chosen, the variables were implemented at different times and with different speed. The views among economists regarding which of the two models that achieve the best result when transforming differs widely. Hence, the purpose of this thesis is to investigate which of the two models that have had the best effect upon the GDP per capita growth in the chosen CEEC. Ten CEEC were picked to have a fair representation for each policy, with five countries representing each policy group and the years measured were 1992-2003. In addition, for a graphical analysis to be performed and to distinct CEEC from already established market economies, five reference countries were included. The results obtained indicate that the policy choice has no impact on average GDP per capita growth. Instead we concure with earlier research that claim that preconditions and sequential order of the market reforms have a larger impact on GDP per capita growth. Additionally, empirical results indicated that there is a significant difference in the GDP growth over the last decade between our CEEC and the reference countries.

<p>Efter upplösningen av Sovjetunionens starka maktkontroll över sina satellitstater den 9:e november 1989, kunde de Centrala och Östeuropeiska länderna (förkortning CEEC på engelska) påbörja sin övergång till marknadsekonomi. Sättet att närma sig en fri marknad är indelat i två olika tillvägagångssätt – chockterapi och gradualism. Den förstnämda metoden genomförs med fokus på snabbhet och en samverkande engångsförvandling av de ekonomiska sektorerna medan den sistnämnda beaktar en grad- och stegvis omvandling. Omvandlingsprocessen i sig består av flera variabler, exempelvis privatisering av statligt ägd egendom, makroekonomisk stabilitet samt liberalisering av priser och handel. Beroende på vilken metod som valdes genomfördes de ovan nämnda variablerna vid olika tidpunkter och med varierande hastighetsgrad. Åsikterna bland ekonomer rörande vilken metod som uppnått bäst resultat är omdebatterad. Följaktligen är syftet med denna uppsats att undersöka vilken av omvandlingsmetoderna som har uppnått högst BNP per capita tillväxt i de valda CEEC under perioden 1992-2003. Tio CEEC valdes ut för att få en rättvis delning mellan de två tillvägagångssätten, med tillhörande fem länder i varje grupp. Därtill valdes fem referensländer ut, för att i en grafisk analys kunna relatera utvecklingen i omvandlingsländer till redan etablerade marknadsekonomier. De erhållna resultaten visar att val av tillvägagångssätt inom omvandlingsprocessen inte har någon signifikant inverkan på BNP per capita utvecklingen. Ländernas grundförutsättningar samt i vilken ordning variablerna implementerades visar sig troligen ha större inverkan på BNP per capita tillväxten. Dessutom visar de empiriska resultaten klara indikationer på att det finns en skillnad mellan CEEC och referensländerna.</p> / <p>After the resolution of the Soviet Unions strict control over its satellite with beginning on the 9th of November 1989, the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) began their transition towards a market economy. How to approach the economic system of a free market has been divided into two major policies – shock therapy and gradualism. The first policy is implemented with speed and one-shock change within the economic sectors as a focus while the second constitutes of slow and gradual implementations. The transformation process in itself consists of several variables, for e.g. privatization of state-owned properties, macroeconomic stabilization and liberalization of prices and trade. Depending on what policy chosen, the variables were implemented at different times and with different speed. The views among economists regarding which of the two models that achieve the best result when transforming differs widely. Hence, the purpose of this thesis is to investigate which of the two models that have had the best effect upon the GDP per capita growth in the chosen CEEC. Ten CEEC were picked to have a fair representation for each policy, with five countries representing each policy group and the years measured were 1992-2003. In addition, for a graphical analysis to be performed and to distinct CEEC from already established market economies, five reference countries were included. The results obtained indicate that the policy choice has no impact on average GDP per capita growth. Instead we concure with earlier research that claim that preconditions and sequential order of the market reforms have a larger impact on GDP per capita growth. Additionally, empirical results indicated that there is a significant difference in the GDP growth over the last decade between our CEEC and the reference countries.</p>

Coordination and cooperation on public projects, as well as trust among society members are important for economic, social and political activities. This dissertation presents essays on the role of gradualism - increasing the stakes of projects slowly over time rather than starting with large-stake projects immediately - in coordination and trust building under various settings. The first two essays are on simultaneous coordination games when there are multiple equilibria in the one-shot game; the third essay is on sequential trust games when the only subgame perfect equilibrium in the one-shot game predicts that no cooperation occurs at all. The first essay, One Step at A Time: Does Gradualism Build Coordination? (joint with Sam Asher, Lorenzo Casaburi, and Plamen Nikolov), uses a multiple-period binarychoice weakest-link coordination experiment and finds that gradualism leads to better coordination in high-stake projects. The findings point to a voluntary mechanism to promote coordination when the capacity to impose sanctions is limited. This second essay, Gradualism, Weakest Link and Information: Theory and Coordination Experiments, extends the first essay and compares the effects of gradualism under various information and payoff structures. It proposes a belief-based learning framework to explore why and when gradualism may help coordination. It compares the role of gradualism in two weakest-link games under two different information structures: a limited information structure when subjects are only informed whether all group members contribute, and a richer information structure when they are informed exactly how many group members contribute. It finds that richer information feedback facilitates later coordination for the big-bang approach when a group is close to success, thus shrinking the advantage of gradualism. Finally, in a third experiment it finds that allowing free riding worsens coordination in all treatments, and gradualism with imperfect monitoring does not perform better. The third essay, Does Gradualism Build Trust? Evidence from A Multi-round Experiment, examines the effect of gradualism in trust building using a multi-round binarychoice trust (investment) experiment. It finds that gradualism leads to higher trustworthiness at the beginning and higher subsequent trust. However, trustworthiness and trust for all treatments sharply decrease in the end; even gradualism cannot avoid this end-of-game effect.

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