Submitted by Edineia Teixeira (edineia.teixeira@unioeste.br) on 2017-09-05T18:20:46Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Juliane_Ruthes2017.pdf: 1463922 bytes, checksum: ec8826d8e498e9d20c267126dd296b8b (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-09-05T18:20:46Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Juliane_Ruthes2017.pdf: 1463922 bytes, checksum: ec8826d8e498e9d20c267126dd296b8b (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-02-08 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / One of the main means from the National Water Resources Policy is the granting of rights to use water resources, which ensures the quantitative control of water and the right of accessing water by different users. The granting criteria are based on water availability indicators or reference flows, whose Q90 and Q95 duration flows are the most used ones by the Brazilian states. Thus, in order to draw flow duration curves, different time units can be adopted, such as the long period curves, which use the whole historical series; the annual flow duration curves created for each year of the recording period; the monthly flow duration curves, drawn for each month of the historical series; or the seasonal flow duration curves, based on the seasons. The unit of time, selected to draw the flow duration curves, will influence on details of flow variation. Therefore, this study aimed at comparing different ways of elaborating flow duration curve and observing its effects on water availability for granting in Parana state. Fluviometric stations were distributed throughout Parana state and, in order to observe the variations in reference flows, some were prepared: a) duration curves of long period; B) annual flow duration curves, obtained by a non-parametric quantile estimator, and confidence intervals were drawn to quantify the uncertainty associated with each estimated quantile; c) monthly flow duration curves, prepared by the equivalent months of the whole historical series. The influence of the selected period got clear to draw the duration curves as this trial was carried out in water availability for granting. And, granting criterion values are more flexible when the interannual and seasonal flows variations are considered / Um dos principais instrumentos da Política Nacional de Recursos Hídricos é a outorga de direito de uso dos recursos hídricos, que assegura o controle qualitativo e quantitativo da água e o direito de acesso à água pelos diferentes usuários. Os critérios de outorga são baseados nos indicadores de disponibilidade hídrica ou vazões de referência, cujas vazões de permanência Q90 e Q95 são as mais utilizadas pelos estados brasileiros. Para a construção das curvas de permanência de vazões, podem ser adotadas diferentes unidades de tempo, como as curvas de longo período, que utilizam toda a série histórica, as curvas de permanência anuais, criadas para cada ano do período de registro, as curvas de permanência mensais, elaboradas para cada mês da série histórica, ou as curvas de permanência sazonais, com base nas estações do ano. A unidade de tempo selecionada para a construção das curvas de permanência influenciará nos detalhes de variação das vazões. Por conseguinte, os objetivos do trabalho foram comparar as diferentes formas de elaboração da curva de permanência e observar seus efeitos sobre a disponibilidade de água para outorga no estado do Paraná. Foram consideradas estações fluviométricas distribuídas por toda a extensão do estado do Paraná. Para a observação das variações nas vazões de referência, foram elaboradas: a) curvas de permanência de longo período; b) curvas de permanência anuais, obtidas por um estimador de quantil não paramétrico, e construídos intervalos de confiança, para quantificação da incerteza associada a cada quantil estimado; c) as curvas de permanência mensais, elaboradas pelos meses equivalentes de toda série histórica. Com o desenvolvimento do trabalho, ficou clara a influência do período selecionado para a construção das curvas de permanência na disponibilidade hídrica para outorga. Os valores do critério de outorga são flexibilizados quando consideradas as variações interanual e sazonal das vazões.

The objective of this research is to investigate the existence of structural changes in unsecured lending time series data and analyse the impact thereof on trends in consumer demand for unsecured credit spanning the years from 2008 to 2015. This is achieved by identifying dates when structural changes occurred over this period. The identified structural break date is linked to an influential economic event or monetary policy change that took place in South Africa of which the impact on three unsecured credit categories are analysed. Unsecured credit growth in South Africa has been subjected to intensive scrutiny since the inception of the National Credit Act (Act No. 34 of 2005) by various regulatory bodies. In 2012 the National Credit Regulator (NCR) commissioned a research study into examining the impact that the National Credit Act (Act No. 34 of 2005) has had on the consumer credit market. The empirical part of this study involved the gathering of time series data on unsecured loans approved, unsecured credit granted per income category and unsecured credit granted from the National Credit Regulator (NCR) database and performing descriptive and econometric analysis. The Zivot-Andrews (1992) and augmented Dickey-Fuller tests determined the break dates which were linked to a significant economic event while the one sample t-test of means compared average loan values before and after the break date. Results of the study indicate that the break dates determined coincided with economic events and monetary policy changes in South Africa, such as the collapse of African Bank, the implementation of the National Credit Amendment Act, prime interest rate movements and the introduction of a debt counselling program by the government. These events, coupled with stricter lending criteria and no further loans being granted to customers already more than three months in arrears, restrained the uptake of unsecured loans to lower and middle income groups. The introduction of new affordability criteria and increasing interest rates in 2014 further negatively impacted demand for unsecured loans. However, higher income earners had the advantage of being able to apply for higher loan amounts. Findings could be used by monetary policymakers and financial institutions to constantly monitor credit trends, improve credit assessment techniques and review lending criteria. / Business Management / M. Com. (Financial Management)