This thesis examines the process of urbanization in Malawi, with special reference to the new capital city, Lilongwe. At independence Malawi inherited an extremely underdeveloped urban system. It is argued that colonial Nyasaland's involvement in the migrant labour system and its reluctant membership of the Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland were contributory factors, both of which related to Nyasaland's economically and politically subordinate position in Southern Africa. Analysis of the static and dynamic nature of independent Malawi's urban system shows it to be very simplistic. It is emphasized that the growth of the truly 'urban' population in most of the small centres in the urban hierarchy has been slow, and that institutional hindrances and government perceptions of the urban process may dissipate the impact of policies designed to promote their development. The major aspect of urban policy since 1964 has been the development of Lilongwe, which the government emphasized had two objectives: to create a new capital replacing the colonial creation of Zomba, and to develop a growth centre to promote greater regional equality and act as a counterattraction to the commercial 'capital' of Blantyre. President Banda's key role in the: instigation of this project is empahasized, and it is suggested that the second objective was rhetorically promoted as a justificatory expedient. The results of original research on urban policy implementation and private sector investment in Blantyre and Lilongwe support the contention that government commitment to Lilongwe as a growth centre is weak, and also draws attention to problems inherent in applying such strategies in small, underdeveloped economies such as Malawi's. Lilongwe's economic development has not been in theoretical accordance with that of a growth centre. Nevertheless although it is proposed that a new capital programme per se cannot be used as a surrogate for a regional development policy, major infrastructural developments in Lilongwe have allowed it to provide a degree of economic competition to Blantyre. These are argued to be mainly associated with government commitment to its development as the capital city rather than its weakly developed growth centre role.

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Thesis (Ph.D.) - Carleton University, 2001. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 143-151). Also available in electronic format on the Internet.

nÃo hà / A partir de um painel de dados para 10 paÃses selecionados entre 1982 e 2011, buscou-se avaliar os determinantes do desenvolvimento dos paÃses a partir de uma combinaÃÃo de modelos economÃtricos que simulam como as variÃveis de abertura comercial, produtividade total dos fatores, estoque de capital e crescimento do PIB afetam o Ãndice de Capital Humano (ICH) nos perÃodos subsequentes, bem como quais as chances de se verificar um crescimento extraordinÃrio deste ICH. A primeira modelagem segue o MÃtodo dos MÃnimos Quadrados em Dois EstÃgios (MQ2E) e a segunda consiste em um modelo de variÃvel dependente binÃria, cujo objetivo à determinar a chance de crescimento do ICH acima de sua mÃdia histÃrica. Nesta primeira etapa, os resultados das estimaÃÃes sugerem que a abertura comercial e o crescimento do estoque de capital sÃo variÃveis-chave no incremento do ICH dos paÃses ao passo que o impacto do crescimento econÃmico nÃo à estatisticamente significante para explicar o crescimento deste Ãndice no futuro. Para as simulaÃÃes acerca da chance de um crescimento extraordinÃrio do ICH, o aumento da produtividade total dos fatores merece destaque como determinante desta chance. Em conjunto, os resultados indicam que investimentos no comÃrcio exterior e na infraestrutura, assim como na elevaÃÃo da produtividade total dos fatores, podem ensejar, respectivamente, melhoria da performance do ICH de um paÃs, bem como seu maior crescimento. / From a data panel for 10 countries selected between 1982 and 2011, we sought to assess the determinants of development of such countries departing from a combination of econometric models that simulate how trade openness variables, total factor productivity, inventory capital and GDP growth affect the Human Capital Index (HCI) in subsequent periods, and what are the chances of occurring an extraordinary growth of HCI. The first modeling follows the method of two-stage least-squares (2SLS) and the second consists of a binary dependent variable model in which the goal is to determine the chance of an increase in HCI above its historical average. In this first step, the estimation results suggest that trade liberalization and the stock of capital growth are key variables in increasing HCI of the countries while the impact of economic growth is not statistically significant to explain the growth of such index in the future. For the simulations of the chance of an extraordinary growth of HCI, the increase in total factor productivity should be highlighted as a determinant of this chance. Along with that, the results indicate that investments in foreign trade and infrastructure, as well as the increase in total factor productivity, can trigger, respectively, improved HCI performance of a country and its further growth.

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