In this study, an urban growth model is used to simulate the urban growth in 2025 in the Antalya Metropolitan Area. It is the fastest growing metropolis in Turkey with a population growth of 41,79&amp / #8240 / , although Turkey&amp / #8217 / s growth is 18,28&amp / #8240 / for the last decade. An Urban Growth Model (SLEUTH, Version 3.0) is calibrated with cartographic data. The prediction is based on the archived data trends of the years of the 1987, 1996, and 2002 images, which are extracted from Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper satellite images and the aerial photographs acquired in 1992 and the data are prepared to insert them as input into the model. The urban extent is obtained through supervised classification of the satellite images and visual interpretation of aerial photographs. The model calibration, where a predetermined order of stepping through the coefficient space is used is performed in order to determine the best fit values for the five growth control parameters including the coefficients of diffusion, breed and spread, slope and road gravity with the historical urban extent data. The development trend in Antalya is simulated by slowing down growth by taking into consideration the road development and environmental protection. After the simulation for a period of 23 years, 9824 ha increased in urban areas is obtained for 2025.

Doctor of Philosophy / Precision Agriculture (PA) strives towards holistic production and environmental management. A fundamental research challenge is the continuous expansion of ideas about how PA can contribute to sustainable agriculture. Some associated pragmatic research challenges include quantification of spatio-temporal variation of crop yield; crop growth simulation modelling within a PA context and; evaluating long-term financial and environmental outcomes from site-specific crop management (SSCM). In Chapter 1 literature about managing whole farms with a mind towards sustainability was reviewed. Alternative agricultural systems and concepts including systems thinking, agro-ecology, mosaic farming and PA were investigated. With respect to environmental outcomes it was found that PA research is relatively immature. There is scope to thoroughly evaluate PA from a long-term, whole-farm environmental and financial perspective. Comparatively, the emphasis of PA research on managing spatial variability offers promising and innovative ways forward, particularly in terms of designing new farming systems. It was found that using crop growth simulation modelling in a PA context is potentially very useful. Modelling high-resolution spatial and temporal variability with current simulation models poses a number of immediate research issues. This research focused on three whole farms located in Australia that grow predominantly grains without irrigation. These study sites represent three important grain growing regions within Australia. These are northern NSW, north-east Victoria and South Australia. Note-worthy environmental and climatic differences between these regions such as rainfall timing, soil type and topographic features were outlined in Chapter 2. When considering adoption of SSCM, it is essential to understand the impact of temporal variation on the potential value of managing spatial variation. Quantifying spatiotemporal variation of crop yield serves this purpose; however, this is a conceptually and practically challenging undertaking. A small number of previous studies have found that the magnitude of temporal variation far exceeds that of spatial variation. Chapter 3 of this thesis dealt with existing and new approaches quantifying the relationship between spatial and temporal variability in crop yield. It was found that using pseudo cross variography to obtain spatial and temporal variation ‘equivalents’ is a promising approach to quantitatively comparing spatial and temporal variation. The results from this research indicate that more data in the temporal dimension is required to enable thorough analysis using this approach. This is particularly relevant when questioning the suitability of SSCM. Crop growth simulation modelling offers PA a number of benefits such as the ability to simulate a considerable volume of data in the temporal dimension. A dominant challenge recognised within the PA/modelling literature is the mismatch between the spatial resolution of point-based model output (and therefore input) and the spatial resolution of information demanded by PA. This culminates into questions about the conceptual model underpinning the simulation model and the practicality of using point-based models to simulate spatial variability. iii The ability of point-based models to simulate appropriate spatial and temporal variability of crop yield and the importance of soil available water capacity (AWC) for these simulations were investigated in Chapter 4. The results indicated that simulated spatial variation is low compared to some previously reported spatial variability of real yield data for some climate years. It was found that the structure of spatial yield variation was directly related to the structure of the AWC and interactions between AWC and climate. It is apparent that varying AWC spatially is a reasonable starting point for modelling spatial variation of crop yield. A trade-off between capturing adequate spatio-temporal variation of crop yield and the inclusion of realistically obtainable model inputs is identified. A number of practical solutions to model parameterisation for PA purposes are identified in the literature. A popular approach is to minimise the number of simulations required. Another approach that enables modelling at every desired point across a study area involves taking advantage of high-resolution yield information from a number of years to estimate site-specific soil properties with the inverse use of a crop growth simulation model. Inverse meta-modelling was undertaken in Chapter 5 to estimate AWC on 10- metre grids across each of the study farms. This proved to be an efficient approach to obtaining high-resolution AWC information at the spatial extent of whole farms. The AWC estimates proved useful for yield prediction using simple linear regression as opposed to application within a complex crop growth simulation model. The ability of point-based models to simulate spatial variation was re-visited in Chapter 6 with respect to the exclusion of lateral water movement. The addition of a topographic component into the simple point-based yield prediction models substantially improved yield predictions. The value of these additions was interpreted using coefficients of determination and comparing variograms for each of the yield prediction components. A result consistent with the preceding chapter is the importance of further validating the yield prediction models with further yield data when it becomes available. Finally, some whole-farm management scenarios using SSCM were synthesised in Chapter 7. A framework that enables evaluation of the long-term (50 years) farm outcomes soil carbon sequestration, nitrogen leaching and crop yield was established. The suitability of SSCM across whole-farms over the long term was investigated and it was found that the suitability of SSCM is confined to certain fields. This analysis also enabled identification of parts of the farms that are the least financially and environmentally viable. SSCM in conjunction with other PA management strategies is identified as a promising approach to long-term and whole-farm integrated management.

Diss. (sammanfattning) Umeå : Sveriges lantbruksuniv., 2003. / Härtill 5 uppsatser.

Na produção da cana-de-açúcar, a irrigação começa a ser empregada mais intensivamente em novas áreas de expansão onde há insuficiência ou má distribuição temporal de chuvas. No entanto, a realização de experimentos, visando fornecer informações de produtividade na tomada de decisão, são onerosos e demoram muito tempo, por esse motivo, os modelos fisiológicos de simulação tornam-se ferramentas importantes, já que através deles é possível estimar a produtividade de uma cultura, em diferentes condições climáticas, sob diferentes épocas de plantio e colheita e sob diferentes métodos de manejo adotado. Assim, o objetivo do trabalho foi gerar informações sobre a produtividade potencial da cana-de-açúcar nas cidades de Gurupi - TO, Teresina - PI, Petrolina - PE e Paranavaí - PA, com plantio e colheita em diferentes datas, através de estimativas de crescimento da cultura utilizando o CANEGRO/DSSAT e determinar o efeito da irrigação sob a produtividade de sequeiro. Os cenários foram baseados em 4 datas de plantio (15 de janeiro, 15 de março, 15 de setembro e 15 de novembro), 2 épocas de colheita (1 e 1,5 anos) e 2 sistemas de produção (irrigado e sequeiro), totalizando 16 cenários por cidade; assim, foi possível verificar que a irrigação e o aumento da época da cultura no campo possibilitaram aumento da produtividade, as produtividades obtiveram valores extremos entre 102 a 208 Mg.ha-¹, 86 a 174 Mg.ha-¹, 43 a 166 Mg.ha-¹ e 99 a 171 Mg.ha-¹, para Gurupi, Teresina, Petrolina e Paranavaí, respectivamente, sendo que o sistema IRR1 (sistema irrigado com colheita um ano depois) apresentou maior renda bruta em todas as cidades / The irrigation is come to used, in the sugarcane production, in the expansion areas where there is insufficient or poor distribution of rainfall. However, performing experiments in order to yield information in decision making, it are expensive and time-intensive, therefore, the models become important tools, since in it is possible to estimate the yield in different climatic conditions, under different planting, harvesting seasons and under different management practices adopted. Thus, the objective was to generate information about the potential productivity of sugarcane in the cities of Gurupi - TO, Teresina - PI, Petrolina - PE, Paranavaí - PA with planting and harvesting at different dates, through estimates of crop growth using CANEGRO /DSSAT and determine the effect of irrigation on productivity. The scenarios were based on four planting dates (January 15, March 15, September 15 and November 15) x 2 harvest times (1 and 1.5 years) x 2 management systems (irrigated and rainfed), totaling 16 scenarios for the city. The irrigation and increased of culture in the field so it was possible to verify that enabled increased of productivity, and it was possibly verify the yeld obtained extreme values between 102 to 208 Mg ha-¹, 86 to 174 Mg ha-¹, 43 to 166 Mg ha-¹ and 99 to 171 Mg ha-¹, to Gurupi, Teresina, Petrolina and Paranavaí, respectively; the IRR1 system (irrigation system with harvest a year later) had a higher gross income in all cities.

A set of elementary building blocks undergoes self-assembly if local interactions govern how this set forms intricate structures. Self-assembly has been widely observed in nature, ranging from the field of crystallography to the study of viruses and multicellular organisms. A natural question is whether a model of self-assembly can capture the hierarchical growth seen in nature or in other fields of mathematics. In this work, we consider hierarchical growth in substitution rules; informally, a substitution rule describes the iterated process by which the polygons of a given set are individually enlarged and dissected. We develop the Polygonal Two-Handed Assembly Model (p-2HAM) where building blocks, or tiles, are polygons and growth occurs when tiles bind to one another via matching, complementary bonds on adjacent sides; the resulting assemblies can then be used to construct new, larger structures. The p-2HAM is based on a handful of well-studied models, notably the Two-Handed Assembly Model and the polygonal free-body Tile Assembly Model. The primary focus of our work is to provide conditions which are either necessary or sufficient for the ``bordered simulation'' substitution rules. By this, we mean that a border made up of tiles is allowed to form around an assembly which then coordinates how the assembly interacts with other assemblies. In our main result, we provide a construction which gives a sufficient condition for bordered simulation. This condition is presented in graph theoretic terms and considers the adjacency of the polygons in the tilings associated to a given substitution rule. Alongside our results, we consider a collection of over one hundred substitution rules from various sources. We show that only the substitution rules in this collection which satisfy our sufficient condition admit bordered simulation. We conclude by considering open questions related to simulating substitution rules and to hierarchical growth in general.

A technique for designing and optimizing the next generation of smart process controllers has been developed in this dissertation. The literature review indicated that neural networks held the most promise for this application, yet fundamental limitations have prevented their introduction to commercial settings thus far. This fundamental limitation has been overcome through the enhancement of neural network theory. The approach taken in this research was to produce highly intelligent process control systems by accurately modeling the nervous structures of higher biological organisms. The mammalian cerebral cortex was selected as the primary model since it is the only computational element capable of interpreting and complex patterns that develop over time. However the choice of the mammalian cerebral cortex as the model introduced two new levels of network complexity. First, the cerebral cortex is a three dimensional structure with extremely complicated patterns of interconnectivity. Second, the structure of the cerebral cortex can only be realized when thousands or millions of neurons are integrated into a massive scale neural network. The neural networks developed in this research were designed around the Hebbian adaptation, the only training technique proven by the literature review to be applicable to massive scale networks. These design difficulties were resolved by not only modeling the cerebral cortex, but the process by which it develops and evolves in biological systems. To complete this model, an advanced genetic algorithm was produced, and a technique was developed to encode all functional and structural parameters that define the cerebral cortex into the artificial chromosome. The neural networks were designed by a cell growth simulation program that decoded the structural and functional information on the chromosome. The cell growth simulation program is capable of producing patterns of differentiation unique for any slight variations in the genetic parameters. These growth patterns are similar to patterns of cellular differentiation seen in biological systems. While the computational resources needed to implement a massive scale neural network are beyond that available in existing computer systems, the technique has produced output lists which fully define the interconnections and functional characteristic of the neurons, thereby laying the foundation for their future use in process control. / Ph. D.

Stem profile models which allow for both taper and form changes (Gray 1956) were constructed and evaluated. Gray defined form to be the basic shape of the tree, e.g. cone or parabolid, and taper to be the rate of narrowing in diameter given a tree form. Ormerod's stem profile model was selected as the basic model since its parameters were readily interpretable in terms of Gray's taper and form definitions. Two stage modeling procedures were used to relate individual tree taper and form parameters to tree and stand characteristics. Two second-stage parameter estimation alternatives were evaluated. Parameter estimates for both techniques, ordinary least squares and random function analysis, were similar. Characteristics used to predict stem form were total tree height, crown ratio, height to the live crown, site index, and tree age. The taper parameter was related to diameter at breast height, crown ratio and site index. Error evaluations suggest that substantial gains in predicting stem diameters were not made using the variable taper and form stem profile models. Two methods were proposed for modeling whole stem inside-bark diameter or cross-sectional area increment. Whole stem increment models were derived from several stem profile models and Presseler's hypothesis on the vertical distribution of cross-sectional area growth. Stem profile models evaluated for constructing compatible increment models were Kozak and others (1969), Ormerod (1973), Goulding and Murray (1976), Max and Burkhart (1976), Cao and others (1980), and Amidon (1984). The increment model based on Presseler's hypothesis was derived as a generalization of the work of Mitchell (1975). Evaluations, with limited increment data, consistently showed that the models based on Presseler's hypothesis predict inside-bark diameter increment with less error than do the profile model compatible increment models. This may be due to the lack of crown information currently used in stem profile models. / Ph. D.

Call number: LD2668 .T4 1978 R62 / Master of Regional and Community Planning

L’objectif de ce travail est de déterminer expérimentalement les paramètres d’entrée des logiciels de simulation, puis de comparer les résultats expérimentaux et numériques pour différents métaux ainsi que pour leurs oxydes. La configuration GLAD a été volontairement choisie pour les structures inclinées particulières qu’elle permet.Le processus de formation de dépôt en phase vapeur (PVD) peut être divisé en trois étapes : l'éjection d'atomes de la cible, le transport vers le substrat et la croissance des couches minces. Chacune est simulée par un logiciel : SRIM pour l’éjection de matière de la cible suite à l’impact avec un ion, SIMTRA pour le transport des atomes de la cible jusqu’au substrat et Simul3D pour la croissance des dépôts. L’évolution des propriétés des couches inclinées (angle d’inclinaison des colonnes β, épaisseur de la couche, contraintes résiduelles, etc) en fonction de la position et de l’angle d’orientation du substrat est étudiée.Les résultats expérimentaux et numériques se complètent mutuellement et permettent une meilleure compréhension des nombreux aspects de l’étude. / The objective of the present work is to determine experimentally the input parameters of the modelling software and then to compare experimental and numerical results in the case of different metals and their oxides. The GLAD configuration was deliberately chosen for the particular angled structures it allows.The Physical Vapor Deposition (PVD) process can be divided in three steps: ejection of atoms from the target, transport to the substrate and growth of the thin films. Different softwares have been developed for each step: SRIM is a computer program that calculates the interactions of energetic ions; SIMTRA simulates the transport of the atoms from the target to the substrate and Simul3D simulates the growth of the film. The evolution of the thin angled films’ properties (column tilt angles β, thickness, residual stress, etc.) versus the orientation of the substrate is studied.The experimental and numerical results complement each other and allow a better understanding of the many aspects of the study.

A análise da vida em fadiga em amplitude variável associada à corrosão é bastante complexa, devido a combinações entre as interações eletroquímicas ocorridas, tendo em vista a exposição da frente da trinca à névoa salina somada aos efeitos deletérios do carregamento de amplitude variável. Esta combinação de efeitos ainda não é modelada matematicamente, e os dados experimentais observados em outros trabalhos ainda geram hipóteses inconclusivas. Neste contexto, este estudo tem como objetivo avaliar a vida em fadiga da liga 7475 T7351, utilizando carregamento de voos simulados TWIST e FALSTAFF e submetida a névoa salina a 3,5 e 5%. Foram executados ensaios eletroquímicos, para verificar o potencial de corrosão dessa liga e análise microestrutural para verificar a formação de pites. O crescimento de trinca por fadiga com carregamento de voo foi simulado, sem considerar os efeitos do meio, nos programas NASGRO 4.0, AFGROW e CRACK 2000, com parâmetros calibrados no NASGRO 4.0, no intuito de verificar quais modelos matemáticos e programas descrevem a curva experimental em ar com menor erro. Os resultados mostraram que os programas NASGRO 4.0 e AFGROW se aproximaram com menor erro à curva experimental em ar. Os ensaios de crescimento de trinca por fadiga foram executados com carregamento de voos simulados e os parâmetros para o sistema de geração de névoa salina foram determinados experimentalmente. As curvas de crescimento de trinca e taxa de propagação em névoa salina foram comparadas às curvas em ar, as quais também foram obtidas sob as mesmas condições de carregamento. Observou-se que para os ensaios em névoa salina, a trinca rompeu com maior número de voos em relação às curvas em ar. / The corrosion fatigue life analysis under variable amplitude loading is very complex due electrochemistry effects in crack tip exposed to salt spray matched to harmful effects of amplitude variable loading. This effects combination is not modeling mathematically actually, and the experimentally data observed in other research generates inconclusive theories. In this context, the main aim of this research to evaluate the corrosion fatigue life of 7475 T7351 under spectrum loading TWIST and FALSTAFF and exposed to 3.5% and 5% NaCl. Electrochemistry test were performed to verify the corrosion potential followed of microstructural analysis by SEM, to verify the pitting on 7475 T7351 alloy. The fatigue crack growth was simulated, without environmental effects, using the codes NASGRO, AFGROW and CRACK 2000, the simulation parameters was fit on NASGRO 4.0, to analyze whether the crack growth models and codes are able to represent properly the air experimental crack growth data. The results showed that NASGRO 4.0 and AFGROW codes described the fatigue crack growth in air with less error. The fatigue crack growth tests were performed under spectrum loadings and the parameters to obtain salt spray were determined experimentally. The corrosion fatigue crack growth and rate data were compared to air data, under the same loading conditions. The corrosion fatigue tests showed that the specimens cracked under a larger number of flights than specimens in air.