Derivatives markets, in particular futures markets, play an important role in the organization of production in commodity markets. While commodity markets for agricultural and natural resources like live cattle, soybean, oil, gas and minerals are well established, commodity markets for marine resources are very new. Located in Bergen (Norway), Fish Pool is a new derivatives market, where futures contracts written on fresh farmed salmon are traded in large quantities since 2006, continuing a strong upwards trend. Markets for forwards and futures on fresh salmon help companies which use fresh salmon in their production, for example, food processing companies, to hedge their price risk and plan ahead, by fixing the price in advance. In the same way, they help producers, i.e. salmon farmers, to reduce their selling price risk. In fact, according to Fish Pool News Archive released on 20/03/2012, not only consumers, processors and producers, but also speculative investors at Fish Pool play a more and more important role, which in consequence urges the issue of finding appropriate, theoretical well-founded and sound pricing formulas for the futures contracts traded there, as well as examining its effects on participants. In this PhD thesis, we first discuss the valuation of futures on fresh farmed salmon as traded on the Fish Pool exchange and then explore how information reflected in the prices of futures contracts can be used to compute fair prices, i.e., arbitrage free prices, for lease and ownership of fish farms. Specifically, in the first chapter, we give a general background of the study and introduce the estimation methods adopted in the thesis, i.e., Kalman filter combined with the maximum likelihood estimation. In Chapter 2, we connect the popular Schwartz (1997) multi-factor approach, which features a stochastic convenience yield for the salmon spot price, with the classical literature on fish farming and aquaculture. We follow first principles, starting by modeling the aggregate salmon farming production process and modeling the demand using a Cobb-Douglas utility function for a representative consumer. In Chapter 3, we extend the Schwartz (1997) two-factor model by adding a seasonality feature to the mean-level of convenience yield. All models are estimated by means of Kalman filter, using a rich data set of contracts with different maturities traded at Fish Pool. The estimates are also discussed in the context of other commodity markets, specifically live cattle which acts as a substitute. Our results show that the framework presented is able to produce an excellent fit to the actual term structure of salmon futures. A comparison with live cattle futures traded within the same period reveals subtle differences, for example within the level of the convenience yield, the speed of mean reversion of the convenience yield and the convenience yield risk premium. In Chapter 4, we consider the optimal harvesting problem for a fish farmer. We take account of the existence of Fish Pool, which determines risk premia and other relevant variables, that influence the fish farmer in his decision. We assess the optimal strategy, harvesting time and value against two alternative setups. The first alternative involves simple strategies which lack managerial flexibility, the second alternative allows for managerial flexibility and risk aversion as modeled by a constant relative risk aversion utility function, but without access to the salmon futures market. In both cases, the loss in project value can be very significant, and in the second case is only negligible for extremely low levels of risk aversion. In consequence, for a risk-averse fish farmer, the presence of a salmon futures market, as well as managerial flexibility, are highly important.

Ballast water has been identified as a major vector for the translocation of Non- Indigenous Invasive Species (NIS) and pathogens across zoogeographical regions and subsequent discharged into recipient port states/regions. This is bound to increase given factors like the globalization of trade and the economy of scale of the ship size. Established NIS has posed significant threat to the human health, economy, finances and marine bio-diversity of recipient regions and port states. The risks associated with the discharged NIS are uncertain and difficult to assess due to the stochastic nature of species assemblages and dispersal mechanism. The safest control measure advocated by the IMO is the conduct of ballast water exchange at sea while appropriate and effective proto-type treatment technologies are being developed and approved for future application. This study has been conducted while recognizing the inability of probabilistic approaches applied in ballast water risk management to addressing uncertainty and inadequacy of data. A qualitative approach using powerful multi-criteria decision making techniques and the safety principles of the Formal Safety Assessment framework have been utilized in this research to develop three generic models for ballast water hazard estimation, risk evaluation and decision-making analysis respectively. The models are capable of being modified and utilized in the industry to address the problems of uncertainty and inadequacy of data in ballast water management. This is particularly useful as an interim measure for port states in developing economies (with insufficient data and technology) to developed robust ballast water management plans. While recognising the huge impact of ballast water pollution in recipient regions this study recommends that ballast water management programmes be given due recognition as an important element of sustainable development programmes at national and international levels. The non-availability of a benchmark based on previous research on which to fully validate the research outcome was identified as a major limitation of this research study. The models developed will therefore be subject to modifications as new data become available.

No description available.

This research has first established that it is based on multiple methodologies developed to tackle the areas of engineering cargo handling systems, both at port and on-board vessels, as well as in the area of organisational self-assessment. It continued in reviewing the current status and future aspects of marine safety assessment together with an examination of a few major accidents. The major problems identified in marine safety assessment in this research are associated with inappropriate treatment of uncertainty in data and human error issues during the risk modelling estimation process and the calculation of failure probabilities. Following the identification of the research needs, this thesis has developed several analytical models for the safety assessment of cargo handling systems and organisational assessment structure. Such models can be effectively integrated into a risk-based framework using the marine formal safety assessment, safety case concepts. Bayesian network (BN) and evidential reasoning (ER) approaches applicable to cargo handling engineering systems have been proposed for systematically and effectively addressing uncertainty due to randomness and vagueness in data respectively. ER test cases for both a vessel selection process and a comparison of the safety maturity of different organisations in terms of self-assessment have been produced within a domain in which main and sub criteria have been developed for assessment reasons a long with the combination of the proposed model with existing organisational models. BN test case for a Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) reliquefaction plant has been produced within a cause-effect domain in which Bayes' theorem is the focal mechanism of inference processing. A methodology aiming in finding the probability of failure when having variables ruled by uncertainty is established using certain variable transformation methods through the First and Second order reliability methodologies. Form/Sorm produces a most likely failure point, which is demonstrated through the application at a port cargo handling crane system. The outcomes have the potential to facilitate the decision-making process in a risk-based framework. Finally, the results of the research are summarised and areas where further research is required to improve the developed methodologies are outlined.

Recent high profile accidents involving environmental damage caused by structural failures in ageing oil tankers and bulk carriers has highlighted the importance of structural integrity issues involving these types of ships. Between 1980 and 1996, there were 186 total losses of bulk and combination carriers and 1,278 lives lost. These events have led to concerns from the public, media and within the international maritime community, about deteriorating ship structural safety standards and the environmental impact. Evidence suggests that structural failure may account for more ship losses than hitherto believed. Industry critics have complained that the quality of designs for new tonnage and effectiveness of the present control mechanisms governing structural condition for vessels in service, are inadequate. Due to the relatively low safety margins inherent in modern commercial ship structural designs, a buyer beware policy prevails in ship procurement. A weakness in current ship design practice appears to be the difficulty of incorporating an owner's individual preferences. Recognising that to be effective, improvements in ship structural design must be implemented at the design stage, this study addresses the challenge of further improving the structural safety and performance of large bulk ships through exercising specific options related to the structural design of the ship within the remit of the buyer. A broad comprehensive literature survey was conducted to cast a wide net around the problem. The complex web of regulatory controls affecting the design and operation of bulk ship hull structures was analysed and problems involving design, construction and maintenance of these vessels were uncovered to build evidence to justify proposing an improved method. An analysis of recent high profile tanker and bulk carrier accidents involving structural failure was performed, to determine root causes. These findings formed the basis for a proposed novel risk-based "design for safety" framework The core of the method is the new evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm developed on the basis of a MCDA evaluation framework and the evidence combination rule of the Dempster-Shafer (D-S) Theory. A number of structural design options focused on the cargo tank mid body area of a typical double hull VLCC were evaluated. A set of quantitative and qualitative criteria were identified and articulated, leading to a structural evaluation framework for eliciting preferences for competing options. The MCDAlER model provides a risk-based, rational, transparent methodology for rapid techno-economic evaluation of alternative structural designs, putting buyers in a stronger position to balance risks and determine the expected structural safety outcomes of different designs. The ER modelling is performed using the Intelligent Decision System (IDS) software program developed by Yang and Xu. The method was tested with an example and validated through a sensitivity study. Finally, the evidence necessary for constructing and demonstrating the MCDAlER structural evaluation framework was used to build the arguments for a safety case approach to hull structures using the Australian Offshore safety case model. The safety case for hull structures is built upon a foundation of existing prescriptive statutory and classification society structural regulatory requirements. The advantages of the safety case applied to oil tankers were explained, including suggestions for a new regulatory approach. The application of new technology and tools was discussed.

No description available.

This research aims to introduce an innovative risk assessment model to Thailand real estate's industry as well as to investigate the risk perception of Thai practitioners. A theoretical framework that was developed from a review of the extant literature was used in the subsequent stages of research design, data collection and analysis. The extensive literature review revealed that the systematic risk assessment methods were too remote from the existing industry practices and these shall be considered as valid approaches by industry. The theoretical frameworks were established based on the requirements of Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, and Political (STEEP) factors. These were well rooted in practice and that individual perception toward risk was a key experiential aspect of risk assessment. The research strategy was designed as a two-phase approach. The first phase was a quantitative approach using the questionnaires survey techniques to gather 210 Thai developers' opinions towards risk assessment practices and the perception towards STEEP factors. The resultant data set was analysed with the statistic tests such as Component Analysis (CA), Explorative Factor Analysis (EF A), etc. The EFA test was applied to 66 risk assessment criteria in order to form the risk assessment model. The phase 1 resulted in a tentative model which was explored in the qualitative phase (phase 2) of the study. TIlls phase adopted the interviews with 13 Thai real estate practitioners, the interview transcripts were analysed using the content analysis and manual coding. The details of risk in this industry, and the requirements/features for the ideal risk assessment model were revealed in this phase. These were expanded and synchronised with the model developed from the EFA theorem in the first phase. In order to validate the tentative risk assessment model, a case study approach was implemented with 4 real estate experts, the results insisted that this model was acceptably developed and this could be used in the real business case because of it covered on the major existing risks in this real estate industry. The final outcome of this research is a validated risk assessment model which forms the basis for assessing risks in the real estate projects which is closely aligned to an industry practice and can lead to an incremental improvement of risk assessment in the property industry.

This PhD focuses on developing a risk-based fire and rescue model for dwelling fires which importantly, is where most fire deaths occur each year. There are a vast number of variables to consider when modelling dwellings, for example variations will arise in terms of geographical location, fire safety arrangements, characteristics of occupants, activities of occupants, among others. As for the occurrence of fire itself, each incident will be unique in terms of time of day, type of fire, state of occupants, fire cues, etc. What all these variations signify is that the potential magnitude of the next fire event and its consequences are generally unpredictable. Because of complicated scenarios, unpredictability of outcomes, and high frequency of incidents, Fire and Rescue Serices (FRS) have to be both capable and flexible in operation; however finding the optimal way of providing emergency cover and minimizing risk is a complicated task which often results in reasoning and decisions taking place under uncertainty. In order to diminish some of this uncertainty and improve confidence in decision making, an extensive four-part Bayesian Network (BN) model is developed focusing on dwelling fires within the UK. The intention is to model the sequence of events which may occur during a fire from ignition through to extinguishment with the objective of assessing, under specified conditions, fire safety at a given location; this should assist in determining what the most important safety issues are for the purpose of improving fire prevention and mitigating consequences in order to reduce fire risk across residential communities. The model itself is broken down into four parts which can function independently or together as an integrated network. The model parts are as follows: Part I - "Initial fire development". Part II - "Occupancy response and further fire development". Part III - "Advanced fire situation and consequences". Part IV - "Fire response time module". Within the project a risk-based fire and rescue operations management framework is also presented to demonstrate how the BN model could fit into the strategic management of FRS's and how it could link up with other tools and data collection programmes. The BN model may prove to be useful for strategic decision making within FRS's.

This research has first reviewed the current status and future aspects of marine and offshore safety assessment. The major problems identified in marine and offshore safety assessment in this research are associated with inappropriate treatment of uncertainty in data and human error issues during the modelling process. Following the identification of the research needs, this thesis has developed several analytical models for the safety assessment of marine and offshore systems/units. Such models can be effectively integrated into a risk-based framework using the marine formal safety assessment and offshore safety case concepts. Bayesian network (BN) and fuzzy logic (FL) approaches applicable to marine and offshore safety assessment have been proposed for systematically and effectively addressing uncertainty due to randomness and vagueness in data respectively. BN test cases for both a ship evacuation process and a collision scenario between the shuttle tanker and Floating, Production, Storage and Offloading unit (FPSO) have been produced within a cause-effect domain in which Bayes' theorem is the focal mechanism of inference processing. The proposed FL model incorporating fuzzy set theory and an evidential reasoning synthesis has been demonstrated on the FPSO-shuttle tanker collision scenario. The FL and BN models have been combined via mass assignment theory into a fuzzy-Bayesian network (FBN) in which the advantages of both are incorporated. This FBN model has then been demonstrated by addressing human error issues in a ship evacuation study using performance-shaping factors. It is concluded that the developed FL, BN and FBN models provide a flexible and transparent way of improving safety knowledge, assessments and practices in the marine and offshore applications. The outcomes have the potential to facilitate the decision-making process in a risk-based framework. Finally, the results of the research are summarised and areas where further research is required to improve the developed methodologies are outlined.

No description available.