Presented in this thesis is a case study of two study watersheds located in south central Virginia. For each, a HEC-HMS event-based hydrologic model was constructed to simulate the rainfall-runoff response from the Probable Maximum Storm (PMS), the theoretical worst-case meteorological event that is capable of occurring over a particular region. The primary goal of these simulations was to obtain discharge hydrographs associated with the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) at key locations in each of the watersheds. These hydrographs were subsequently used to develop flood inundation maps of the study areas and to characterize sediment transport phenomena in the study reaches under severe flooding conditions. To build the hydrologic basin models, ArcHydro, HEC-GeoHMS and ArcGIS were employed to assimilate the substantial amount of input data and to extract the pertinent modeling parameters required for the selected simulation methods. In this, the SCS Loss and Transform Methods, along with the Muskingum Routing Method, were adopted for the HEC-HMS simulations. Once completed, the basin models were calibrated through a comparison of simulated design storm flows to frequency discharge estimates obtained with regional regression techniques and a flood frequency analysis. The models were then used to simulate their respective PMS events, which were developed following recommendations from the Hydrometeorological Branch of the National Weather Service and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Descriptions of each of the study sites, explanations of the modeling theory and development methodologies, and discussions of the modeling results are all detailed within. / Master of Science

In this study, Yuvacik Basin, which is located in southeastern part of Marmara Region of T&uuml / rkiye, is selected as the application basin and hydrologic modeling studies are performed for the basin. Basin is divided into three subbasins such as: Kirazdere, Kazandere, and Serindere and each subbasin is modeled with its own parameters. In subbasin and stream network delineation HEC-GeoHMS software is used and for the hydrologic modeling studies the new version of HEC-HMS hydrologic modeling software released in April 2006 is used. Modeling studies consist of four items: event-based hourly simulations, snow period daily simulations, daily runoff forecast using numerical weather prediction data, and runoff scenarios using intensity-duration-frequency curves. As a result of modeling studies, infiltration loss and baseflow parameters of each subbasin are calibrated with both hourly and daily simulations. Hourly parameters are used in spring, summer and fall seasons / daily parameters are used in late fall, winter and early spring (snowfall and snowmelt period) to predict runoff. Observed runoffs are compared with the forecasted runoffs that are obtained using MM5 grid data (precipitation and temperature) in the model. Goodness-of-fit between forecasted and observed runoffs is promising. Hence, the model can be used in real time runoff forecast studies. At last, runoffs that correspond to different return periods and probable maximum precipitation are predicted using intensity-duration-frequency data as input and frequency storm method of HEC-HMS. These runoffs can be used for flood control and flood damage estimation studies.

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