Depression in mothers is an important risk factor for behavioral and emotional problems in their children (Elgar, McGrath, Waschbusch, Stewart, & Curtis 2004), and disrupted parenting is thought to mediate the influences of maternal depression on children. This 4-year longitudinal study examined whether mothers’ depression predicted parenting of children with behavioral problems across the preschool years. This study attempted to tease apart the correlates of enduring, chronic maternal depressive symptoms from those of transient depressive symptoms on parenting during the preschool years. In particular, it sought to predict both changes in parenting across the preschool years as well as to predict parenting practices as parents and children emerge from the preschool years. Participants were 199 mothers of 3-year-old children, with behavior problems who completed measures of depression and parenting yearly until children were 6 years old. Mothers with higher average depressive symptoms across the preschool years reported more overreactivity and laxness, and showed less warmth when their children were 6 years old. These mothers were also more likely to increase their self-reported overreactivity over time. Increases in depression were associated with increases in overreactivity and laxness, but not in warmth. These results provide stronger evidence than previous cross-sectional studies for a causal relation between depression and parenting, and point to the importance of providing adequate treatment and support to depressed mothers of preschool children.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(理学) / 甲第24440号 / 理博第4939号 / 新制||理||1706(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院理学研究科化学専攻 / (主査)教授 谷村 吉隆, 教授 林 重彦, 教授 鈴木 俊法 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DGAM

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(情報学) / 甲第24744号 / 情博第832号 / 新制||情||139(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院情報学研究科システム科学専攻 / (主査)准教授 深沢 圭一郎, 教授 田中 利幸, 教授 石井 信 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Informatics / Kyoto University / DFAM

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A probability distribution is a statistical function that describes the probability of possible outcomes in an experiment or occurrence. There are many different probability distributions that give the probability of an event happening, given some sample size n. An important question in statistics is to determine the distribution of the sum of independent random variables when the sample size n is fixed. For example, it is known that the sum of n independent Bernoulli random variables with success probability p is a Binomial distribution with parameters n and p: However, this is not true when the sample size is not fixed but a random variable. The goal of this thesis is to determine the distribution of the sum of independent random variables when the sample size is randomly distributed as a Poisson distribution. We will also discuss the mean and the variance of this unconditional distribution.

This project addresses the problem of comparing the offensive abilities of players from different eras in Major League Baseball (MLB). We will study players from the perspective of an overall offensive summary statistic that is highly linked with scoring runs, or the Berry Value. We will build an additive model to estimate the innate ability of the player, the effect of the relative level of competition of each season, and the effect of age on performance using piecewise age curves. Using Hierarchical Bayes methodology with Gibbs sampling, we model each of these effects for each individual. The results of the Hierarchical Bayes model permit us to link players from different eras and to rank the players across the modern era of baseball (1900-2004) on the basis of their innate overall offensive ability. The top of the rankings, of which the top three were Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, and Stan Musial, include many Hall of Famers and some of the most productive offensive players in the history of the game. We also determine that trends in overall offensive ability in Major League Baseball exist based on different rule and cultural changes. Based on the model, MLB is currently at a high level of run production compared to the different levels of run production over the last century.

Increasingly more users are accessing database systems for interactive and exploratory data retrieval. While performing searches on these systems, users are required to use broad queries to get their desired results. Broad queries often result in too many items forcing the user to spend unnecessary time sifting through these items to find the relevant results. This problem, of finding a desired data item within many items, is referred to as "information overload". Most users experience information overload when viewing these database query results. This thesis shows that users information overload can be reduced by clustering database query results. A hierarchical agglomerative clustering algorithm is used to cluster the query results. The reduction of users information overload is evaluated using Chakrabarti et al information overload cost model. Empirical results show that users are able to find more relevant information as well as experiencing a reduction in information overload.

The purposes of this study were to evaluate the effects touches per play, post touches per play, and dribbles to end a play (DEP) have on points per play, field goal percentage, turnovers, and fouls. This was done to provide empirical evidence on anecdotal theories held by coaches concerning ball movement, dribbles, and post touches. The data collected were statistically analyzed using Bayesian hierarchical models. This study reports some intriguing trends. First, exceeding nine passes and three dribbles to end a play results in a decrease in points per play and field goal percentage. Second, up to three dribbles into a shot was more productive and efficient than shooting with no dribbles. Third, post play does not have as big an effect on offensive basketball as previously expected. Lastly, offensive rebounds seem to universally have a positive effect upon offensive basketball. This study supported some anecdotal beliefs about basketball, while not others, supporting the idea for statistically based studies to be conducted on anecdotal beliefs held about basketball.

A main objective of Departments of Transportation is to improve the safety of the roadways over which they have jurisdiction. Safety projects, such as cable barriers and raised medians, are utilized to reduce both crash frequency and crash severity. The efficacy of these projects must be evaluated in order to use resources in the best way possible. Five models are proposed for the evaluation of traffic projects: (1) a Bayesian Poisson regression model; (2) a hierarchical Poisson regression model building on model (1) by adding hyperpriors; (3) a similar model correcting for overdispersion; (4) a dynamic linear model; and (5) a traditional before-after study model. Evaluation of these models is discussed using various metrics including DIC. Using the models selected for analysis, it was determined that cable barriers are quite effective at reducing severe crashes and cross-median crashes on Utah highways. Raised medians are also largely effective at reducing severe crashes. The results of before and after analyses are highly valuable to Departments of Transportation in identifying effective projects and in determining which roadway segments will benefit most from their implementation.