This thesis is concerned with the study of flood plains and the flood hazard in England and Wales. Flood plains form an important resource which is only successfully utilised by the reduction of the flood hazard. The extent of the flood hazard in a study area, the problem of assessing flood damage, and the perception of the flood hazard and adjustment to it, are all investigated in order to suggest ways in which floods may be reduced. The flood hazard is a widespread phenomenon affecting most parts of the study area of this dissertation which consists of the Severn, Wye and Usk catchments, and a group of catchments in Glamorgan. Most major settlements extend into flood risk areas, and require flood alleviation programmes. Flood damage assessment is found to be a major problem which adversely affects our ability to optimise flood plain resource use. The assessment of potential flood damages based directly upon actual damage data is found to be impracticable. Instead, standard flood damage information, based upon actual flood damage data, is developed for residences. This allows the computation of potential residential flood damage. The important problem of flood hazard adjustment is considered in a study of the preconditions of flood hazard perception and individual and community adjustment at study sites. The adjustment process is found to be conditioned by flood experience, spatial variations in the hazard, access to information and adjustment evaluation, whilst personality traits do not appear to be directly important. At the community level, unconventional combinations of adjustment are found to be of value, although low levels of public awareness of flood risk pose a serious problem. Flood hazard reduction can be improved in this country by explicit management of flood plains, by improved economic analyses, and by the application of behavioural principles.

Hurricane Katrina of 2005 was responsible for at least 81 billion dollars of property damage. In planning for such emergencies, society must decide whether to invest in the ability to evacuate more speedily or in improved forecasting technology to better predict the timing and intensity of the critical event. To address this need, we use dynamic programming and Markov processes to model the interaction between the emergency response system and the emergency forecasting system. Simulating changes in the speed of evacuation and in the accuracy of forecasting allows the determination of an optimal mix of these two investments. The model shows that the evacuation improvement and the forecast improvement give different patterns of impact to their benefit. In addition, it shows that the optimal investment decision changes by the budget and the feasible range of improvement.

Hurricane Katrina of 2005 was responsible for at least 81 billion dollars of property damage. In planning for such emergencies, society must decide whether to invest in the ability to evacuate more speedily or in improved forecasting technology to better predict the timing and intensity of the critical event. To address this need, we use dynamic programming and Markov processes to model the interaction between the emergency response system and the emergency forecasting system. Simulating changes in the speed of evacuation and in the accuracy of forecasting allows the determination of an optimal mix of these two investments. The model shows that the evacuation improvement and the forecast improvement give different patterns of impact to their benefit. In addition, it shows that the optimal investment decision changes by the budget and the feasible range of improvement.

Human Systems Integration Capstone / Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited / Current ejection seat certified aircrew weight ranges (136 to 213 lbs.), such as for the F/A-18, prohibited over one third (38%) of women and (8%) of men from accessing the naval aviation strike pipeline (carrierbased aviation) between 2008 and 2013. This is deleterious to the Naval Aviation Enterprise to restrict access of otherwise qualified and talented applicants to the strike aviation pipeline due to an outdated anthropometric survey based specification. The acceptable level of risk that was utilized by the Naval Aviation Systems Command was overly conservative and needs to be updated to align with current operational risk management principles, actual ejection seat performance mishap data and the naval aviation anthropometric population. This research is a deep exploration of all aspects of this issue and makes recommendations that can be used by Commander of Naval Air Forces in establishing an operational weight limit for all ejection seat aircraft.

This thesis examines the indirect impact of natural hazards on infrastructure networks. It addresses several key themes and issues for hazard assessment, network modelling and risk assessment using the case study of landslides impacting the national road network in Scotland, United Kingdom. The research follows four distinct stages. First, a landslide susceptibility model is developed using a database of landslide occurrences, spatial data sets and logistic regression. The model outputs indicate the terrain characteristics that are associated with increased landslide potential, including critical slope angles and south westerly aspects associated with increased rates of solar irradiance and precipitation. The results identify the hillslopes and road segments that are most prone to disruption by landslides and these indicate that 40 % (1,700 / 4,300 km) of Scotland s motorways and arterial roads (i.e. strategic road network) are susceptible to landslides and this is above previous assessments. Second, a novel user-equilibrium traffic model is developed using UK Census origin-destination tables. The traffic model calculates the additional travel time and cost (i.e. indirect impacts) caused by network disruptions due to landslide events. The model is applied to calculate the impact of historic scenarios and for sets of plausible landslide events generated using the landslide susceptibility model. Impact assessments for historic scenarios are 29 to 83 % greater than previous, including £1.2 million of indirect impacts over 15 days of disruption at the A83 Rest and Be Thankful landslide October 2007. The model results indicate that the average impact of landslides is £64 k per day of disruption, and up to £130 k per day on the most critical road segments in Scotland. In addition to identifying critical road segments with both high impact and high susceptibility to landslides, the study indicates that the impact of landslides is concentrated away from urban centres to the central and north-west regions of Scotland that are heavily reliant on road and haulage-based industries such as seasonal tourism, agriculture and craft distilling. The third research element is the development of landslide initiation thresholds using weather radar data. The thresholds classify the rainfall conditions that are most commonly associated with landslide occurrence in Scotland, improving knowledge of the physical initiation processes and their likelihood. The thresholds are developed using a novel optimal-point threshold selection technique, high resolution radar and new rain variables that provide spatio-temporally normalised thresholds. The thresholds highlight the role of the 12-day antecedent hydrological condition of soils as a precursory factor in controlling the rain conditions that trigger landslides. The new results also support the observation that landslides occur more frequently in the UK during the early autumn and winter seasons when sequences or clustering of multiple cyclonic-storm systems is common in periods lasting 5 to 15 days. Fourth, the three previous elements are combined to evaluate the landslide hazard of the strategic road segments and a prototype risk assessment model is produced - a catastrophe model. The catastrophe model calculates the annual average loss and aggregated exceedance probability of losses due to the indirect impact of landslides in Scotland. Beyond application to cost-benefit analyses for landslide mitigation efforts, the catastrophe model framework is applicable to the study of other natural hazards (e.g. flooding), combinations of hazards, and other infrastructure networks.

Recent events such as the New Orleans floods and the Japanese tsunami of 2011 have highlighted the uncertainty in the quantification of the magnitude of natural hazards. The research undertaken here has focussed on the uncertainty in evaluating storm surge magnitudes based on a range of statistical techniques including the Generalised Extreme Value distribution, Joint Probability and Monte Carlo simulations. To support the evaluation of storm surge frequency magnitude relationships a unique hard copy observed sea level data set, recording hourly observations, was acquired and digitised for Devonport, Plymouth, creating a 40 year data set. In conjunction with Devonport data, Newlyn (1915-2012) tide gauge records were analysed, creating a data set of 2 million data points. The different statistical techniques analysed led to an uncertainty range of 0.4 m for a 1 in 250 year storm surge event, and 0.7 m for a 1 in 1000 storm surge event. This compares to a 0.5 m uncertainty range between the low and high prediction for sea level rise by 2100. The Geographical Information system modelling of the uncertainty indicated that for a 1 in 1000 year event the level uncertainty (0.7 m) led to an increase of 100% of buildings and 50% of total land affect. Within the study area of south-west England there are several critical structures including a nuclear licensed site. Incorporating the uncertainty in storm surge and wave height predictions indicated that the site would be potentially affected today with the combination of a 1 in 1000 year storm surge event coincident with a 1 in 1000 wave. In addition to the evaluation of frequency magnitude relations this study has identified several trends in the data set. Over the data period sea level rise is modelled as an exponential growth (0.0001mm/yr2), indicating the modelled sea level rise of 1.9 mm/yr and 2.2 mm/yr for Newlyn and Devonport, will potentially increase over the next century by a minimum of 0.2 m by 2100.The increase in storm frequency identified as part of this analysis has been equated to the rise in sea level, rather than an increase in the severity of storms, with decadal variations in the observed frequency, potentially linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation. The identification as part of this study of a significant uncertainty in the evaluation of storm surge frequency magnitude relationships has global significance in the evaluation of natural hazards. Guidance on the evaluation of external hazards currently does not adequately consider the effect of uncertainty; an uncertainty of 0.7 m identified within this study could potentially affect in the region of 500 million people worldwide living close to the coast.

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This diploma work deal with proposition of insurance portfolio for chosen bussines subjekt. In contains risk analysis and insurance portfolio proposition for pourposes of niminizing significant risk of the company by means of commercial insurance companies, so the risk jeopardizes the business activities of the company.