Submitted by JOSIANE SANTOS DE OLIVEIRA (josianeso) on 2018-12-04T13:24:28Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Fernanda Rocha de Aguiar_.pdf: 1937778 bytes, checksum: 1fc90c40d2895375df76738cdc391205 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-12-04T13:24:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Fernanda Rocha de Aguiar_.pdf: 1937778 bytes, checksum: 1fc90c40d2895375df76738cdc391205 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-08-27 / UNISINOS - Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos / Este trabalho objetiva analisar os possíveis cenários da indústria postal brasileira, em um horizonte até 2028, a partir dos efeitos econômicos, sociais, políticos, tecnológicos e legais decorrentes das transformações desse mercado. É fato que as empresas estão usando canais digitais para emitir contas, declarações e faturas. As pessoas agora usam redes sociais e smartphones para se comunicar com familiares e amigos. Além disso, os consumidores estão mudando gradativamente de lojas físicas para compras online. Ou seja, ambos, a substituição de correspondências físicas por mídias e o comércio eletrônico, estão em alta e resultam em desafios e oportunidades para a indústria postal, além de impulsionarem os esforços para diversificar e aumentar a eficiência e a inovação. Essas considerações motivaram o desenvolvimento de uma pesquisa qualitativa, de natureza exploratória, utilizando o método da análise de cenários a partir de informações fornecidas por especialistas do correio brasileiro, bem como atores do ambiente contextual em que a empresa está inserida. A coleta de dados foi realizada por meio de entrevistas semiestruturadas, em que as informações foram apuradas mediante Análise de Conteúdo. Como resultado, foram construídos quatro cenários baseados em incertezas e tendências da indústria postal brasileira, de forma a indicar de que maneira a distribuição domiciliária pode ser adequada a essas perspectivas. Da análise dos cenários, validada por especialistas, ressalta-se que o correio brasileiro precisa de estratégias que possam preparar a organização para atravessar as diferentes situações que foram desenhadas, especialmente com a necessidade de diversificação do seu modelo de negócio, incluindo remodelagem de produtos, flexibilidade em suas atividades e inovação de suas plataformas. Do contrário, a empresa poderá se direcionar para a realidade da precarização dos serviços, que representa a baixa qualidade e a falta de eficiência operacional, forçando as premissas de privatização ou quebra de monopólio para o correio brasileiro. / This paper aims to analyze the possible scenarios of the Brazilian postal industry in a horizon up to 2028, from the economic, social, political, technological and legal effects resulting from the transformations of this market. It is a fact that companies are using digital channels to issue accounts, statements and invoices. People now use social networks and smartphones to communicate with family and friends. In addition, consumers are gradually shifting from physical stores to shopping online. In other words, both the substitution of physical correspondence by means of e-commerce and e-commerce are on the rise and result in challenges and opportunities for the postal industry, as well as boosting efforts to diversify and increase efficiency and innovation. These considerations motivated the development of a qualitative research of an exploratory nature using the Scenario Analysis method from information provided by Brazilian mail specialists as well as actors from the contextual environment in which the company is inserted. The research was performed through semi-structured interviews in which the information was cleared through Content Analysis. As a result, four scenarios were built based on the uncertainties and trends of the Brazilian postal industry in order to indicate how home delivery may be appropriate to these perspectives. From the analysis of the scenarios, validated by specialists, it is emphasized that Brazilian postal industry needs strategies that can prepare the organization to cross the different situations that were designed, especially with the need to diversify its business model, including product remodeling, flexibility in their activities and innovation of their platforms. Otherwise, the company could be directed to the reality of the precariousness of the services that represents the poor quality and lack of operational efficiency, forcing the premises of privatization or end of the postal monopoly for Brazilian postal service.

Deep decarbonisation of road transportation is challenging. One of the most potentially beneficial approaches is electrification which is the subject of this PhD thesis. A widespread penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) across a large proportion of road transport demand is needed to realise the benefits of an electrified transport sector. However, this is dependent on overcoming significant barriers. This study performs a systematic analysis of how proven power charging technologies could be used to unlock the barriers to widespread electrification of road transportation. Various road transport sectors and type of journeys are explored including aspects of autonomous operations and novel wireless power transfer technologies. For each operation, a framework is proposed that allows the exploitation of current and potential future electrification technologies to enable shifting towards EVs. Based on that, simulation tools and methods are developed to calculate the power requirements of EVs and determine a suitable charging infrastructure. The additional power demand, electric load and the implications for the electricity supply network are explored. The total expenditure needed and the CO2 emission savings are also calculated for each investigated operation. Transitional strategies include the electrification of bus routes, refuse collection functions, home deliveries and aspects of autonomous operations for public transportation within the boundaries of the cities. In the long-term, focus is given on passenger cars and freight vehicles for both urban and inter-urban journeys. A nationwide adoption of all electrification strategies proposed in this thesis would increase the peak power demand of Great Britain by approximately 38 GW (72% of the current peak) and the electricity consumption by 180 TWh per year (45% of current consumption). The total capital cost required is calculated at £225 billion which is similar to the cost of other large infrastructure projects of the country. The impact would be a significant aggregate saving of approximately 2,000 MtCO2 between the numbers calculated for today's norms (2018) and those calculated for 2050.