This thesis contains three empirical essays on the economics of house price dynamics. The first essay derives a forward-looking rational expectations house price model and empirically tests its ability to explain short-run fluctuations in real house prices. A novel approach to proxying imputed rents of owner-occupied housing, as a function of housing market fundamentals, is derived and combined with a housing market arbitrage relation to derive a present value model for real house prices. Tests of the rational expectations, nonlinear cross-equation restrictions reject the joint null hypothesis of rational expectations and the asset-based housing price model for quarterly, single-detached house prices in the city of Vancouver, British Columbia, over the 1979-1991 sample period. The model fails to fully capture observed house price dynamics in two real estate booms but tracks real house prices well in less volatile times, suggesting that prices may temporarily deviate from fundamental values in real estate market upswings. The second essay develops and applies a test of the joint null hypothesis of rational expectations, and no risk premium in the Vancouver condominium apartment market. The results show that, on average, ex post house price changes move in the opposite direction than their rational expectation under risk neutrality. This essay also documents the predictability of excess annual condominium returns using lags of annual returns and the rent/price ratio, and quarterly returns with short-term nominal interest rates. It further shows that deviations of house price changes from their (risk neutral) rational expectation are both stationary and related to the stage of the real estate price cycle. The third essay examines whether a time-varying housing market risk premium can explain deviations in house price fluctuations from those predicted by the rational expectations hypothesis under risk neutrality. If homeowners are risk averse and housing price risk is not completely diversifiable then housing market efficiency implies that re turns to housing investment should be positively correlated with a premium for bearing risk. The first part of the essay shows that, in theory, the finding of negative slope co-efficients in tests of unbiased house price expectations under risk neutrality (in chapter 3) is attributable to omitted risk considerations if two conditions are satisfied: (1) the covariance between the risk premium and expected house price appreciation under risk neutrality is negative, and; (2) the variance of the risk premium is considerably larger than the variance of expected appreciation under risk neutrality. The second part of the essay uses a conditional capital asset pricing model to investigate whether predictable returns in the Vancouver housing market are time-varying risk premia. The empirical results are inconclusive. / Business, Sauder School of / Real Estate Division / Graduate

Yu Qing. / Thesis submitted in: November 2000. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2001. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 65-68). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Acknowledgements --- p.i / Abstract --- p.ii / 摘要 --- p.iii / Table of Contents --- p.iv / List of Tables --- p.vi / List of Figures --- p.vi / Chapter Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter Chapter 2 --- Literature Review --- p.4 / Chapter 2.1 --- Theoretical Model --- p.4 / Chapter 2.2 --- Empirical Investigation --- p.9 / Chapter 2.2.1 --- Choice of The Functional Form --- p.9 / Chapter 2.2.2 --- Choice of Variables --- p.13 / Chapter 2.2.3 --- Estimation of Supply and Demand Functions --- p.16 / Chapter 2.2.4 --- Test of Heteroskedasticity --- p.17 / Chapter 2.2.5 --- Test of Multicollinearity --- p.18 / Chapter 2.2.6 --- Application of The Hedonic Price Model to Developing Countries --- p.20 / Chapter 2.3 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.21 / Chapter Chapter 3 --- Introduction of The Housing Market in Guang Zhou --- p.23 / Chapter 3.1 --- Development and Current Situation --- p.23 / Chapter 3.2 --- Some Caveats --- p.26 / Chapter Chapter 4 --- Empirical Results --- p.30 / Chapter 4.1 --- The Data --- p.30 / Chapter 4.1.1 --- Dependent Variable --- p.34 / Chapter 4.1.2 --- Locational Variables --- p.34 / Chapter 4.1.3 --- Structural Variables --- p.35 / Chapter 4.1.4 --- Neighbourhood Variables --- p.37 / Chapter 4.2 --- The Results --- p.38 / Chapter 4.2.1 --- Regression Results and Possible Interpretation --- p.40 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- Test of Multicollinearity --- p.48 / Chapter 4.2.3 --- Test of Heteroscedasticity --- p.50 / Chapter 4.2.4 --- Test of Alternative Functional Forms --- p.55 / Chapter 4.3 --- Possible Sources of Estimation Bias --- p.57 / Chapter 4.4 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.59 / Chapter Chapter 5 --- Conclusion --- p.61 / References --- p.65

Cheng Wing Yan. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2002. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 115-122). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.i-ii / Acknowledgements --- p.iii / Table of Contents --- p.iv / List of Tables --- p.v / List of Figures --- p.vi-vii / List of Charts --- p.viii / Chapter Chapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter Chapter 2. --- Literature Review --- p.4 / Chapter Chapter 3. --- Methodology --- p.8 / Chapter Chapter 4. --- Data Description --- p.18 / Chapter Chapter 5. --- Empirical Results --- p.29 / Chapter 5.1 --- Simple Regression Results --- p.29 / Chapter 5.2 --- Structural Break Test Results --- p.31 / Chapter 5.3 --- Regression Results for Housing Attributes' Coefficients on Macroeconomic Variables --- p.32 / Chapter Chapter 6. --- Conclusion --- p.34 / Appendix 1. Limitation --- p.35 / Appendix 2. Tables --- p.37 / Appendix 3. Figures --- p.77 / Appendix 4. Charts --- p.107 / Appendix 5. Regression Results for Housing Attributes from Literature --- p.113 / Bibliography --- p.115

published_or_final_version / Real Estate and Construction / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

A rapid urbanization process facilitated an enormous expansion of the cities and stimulated the development of the urban housing markets in China. The primary purpose of this thesis is to find factors influencing the urban housing prices. Based on the supply and demand theory, I examine housing prices in 95 cities in 2010 related to population growth, wages, manufacturing employment, human capital, pollution, and housing investment using a cross section data analysis. The empirical results indicate that all those factors are significantly related to the housing prices. I focus on population growth, a proxy for the urbanization process, as the core determinant to analyze housing prices in China. In addition, the results also find that cities located in the eastern area have averagely a higher productivity than the ones located in the mid-west, and the higher housing prices in the eastern area are explained by the higher level of population growth and wages.

It is observed that there are many different models about housing price. Yet, this is relatively smaller number of studies about housing starts. This thesis is an empirical study to work out the relationship between housing starts, housing price and other economic and policy instrumental factors. To achieve this objective, a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model is built since there is inter-relationship between housing starts and housing price. By applying previous models filled with the research gaps, a new VAR model about the housing starts and housing price in Hong Kong is built. Four hypotheses are tested in the thesis. The first and second hypotheses are if housing starts and housing price are affected by the given exogenous variables. The third hypothesis is if the past movement of economic variables reliable in predicting future values of that variable. The last hypothesis is to test if the “high-land-price” policy really pushes up the housing price. The empirical results found in this thesis are a little bit different to previous studies in Hong Kong and overseas. Factors which are frequently proved to be statistically significant are not significant in this study (e.g. interest rate and tender price index). Developers in Hong Kong are found to care more about the future market rather than the current market conditions. Many factors do not exert an influence directly on housing starts but indirectly through their impact to the change of the change of the housing price. It is interesting to know that housing starts react negatively to a change in housing price. An increase in the change of housing price is a bullish signal for the developers. They will hold the land for a while until they expect the peak is coming upon the completion of a project. Therefore, the empirical results suggest the government has to introduce some policies which will lead to a fall in housing price in case that she wants to increase the supply of new private residential housing. Developers will accelerate the applications to commence construction when they expect there will be a downward trend in the housing price (which is shown by a negative change of the housing price.. / published_or_final_version / Real Estate and Construction / Master / Master of Philosophy

In Japan, the turning point for its housing and stock prices at the beginning of the 1990s coincided with the turning point for its middle-aged-to-younger population ratio. In the United States, the financial crisis in 2007 also coincided with the turning point for the same ratio. Were these mere coincidences or was there a causal relationship between the middle-aged-to-younger population ratios and asset prices? In this study, the author proposed two models, namely the income and investment channels, and six hypotheses. The empirical evidence from 18 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries from 1970 to 2010 showed that the middle-aged-to-younger population ratio influenced stock prices through both the income and investment channels and the housing prices mainly through the income channel. The income model suggested that the growth in the middle-aged-to-younger population ratio increased the average national income and, hence, asset prices. The investment model allowed individuals to take advantage of this trend in asset appreciation by saving and investing. As a result, asset prices went up. These discoveries might help us understand the causal relationship between the middle-aged-to-younger population ratio and asset prices and, in the long run, the co-movement of stock and housing prices. / published_or_final_version / Real Estate and Construction / Master / Master of Philosophy

No description available.

published_or_final_version / Real Estate and Construction / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

by Tse Tin-leung, Raymond. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1993. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 84-85). / ABSTRACT --- p.ii / TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.iii / LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS --- p.v / CHAPTERS / Chapter I. --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Scope of This Project --- p.1 / Chapter II. --- METHODOLOGY --- p.4 / Chapter III. --- THE SYSTEM OF LAND & PROPERTY SUPPLY IN HONG KONG --- p.5 / Supply by Hong Kong Government --- p.5 / Supply by Private Sectors --- p.5 / Chapter VI. --- BUYING & SELLING ： THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS --- p.7 / Buying Properties --- p.7 / Selling Properties --- p.9 / Chapter V. --- FACTORS AFFECTING THE PRICE MOVEMENT --- p.11 / The Price Movement --- p.11 / Factors Affecting Price Movement --- p.11 / Chapter VI. --- THE FINDINGS --- p.18 / Chapter VII. --- APPLYING PRICE EQUATION TO WHAMPOA GARDEN --- p.21 / Choice of District --- p.21 / The Data Collection for Whampoa Garden --- p.22 / The Findings --- p.23 / Chapter VIII. --- CONCLUSION --- p.25 / Chapter IX. --- LIMITATION --- p.27 / APPENDIX --- p.28 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.84