published_or_final_version / Real Estate and Construction / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

經歷十三年風雨，香港樓價再創歷史新高。有云：「禍兮福所倚」，業主得益於財富增長的同時，亦擔心高速增長埋下泡沫爆破的伏線。因樓價高企，年青人置業困難，社會不滿亦日漸升溫。 / 在國際貨幣基金組織出言警告後，香港金融管理局連同財政司相繼推出措施如額外印花稅，以及收緊不同物業種類的按揭上限，希望保持樓市健康及穩定發展。一石激起千重浪，政策推出後輿論不絶，但至今仍未有人以嚴謹的邏輯推論分析新政策的影響。本文以Stein (1995)的模型作藍本，稍作修改，以分析新政對樓價的影響。 / 按照文中模型計算，於當前經濟環境下，新措施確能維持樓市健康及穩定發展。額外印花稅能壓抑樓價時，收緊不同物業種類的按揭上限能保持樓價平穩。理論模型同時指出，兩樣政策都不是萬能丹，政府於調控樓市時應先評估當前經濟基礎，否則有機會事與願違。 / House price in Hong Kong is reaching its historical high. People start to worry a sudden drop of house price as what they had experienced in year 1997. Social disputes emerged and the Hong Kong government has taken several measures in reaction. Policies such as the Multi-down payment constraint by the HKMA and special stamp duty by the Financial Secretary are implemented in response to the soaring house price. The Media and the general public are keen to explore the effects and the consequences of the policies. However, little effort has been done to study the impact of the enacted policy in a systematic way. / This thesis augmented the model developed by Stein (1995) to examine the housing price behavior of Hong Kong. Simulation results justified the government’s policies. SSD helps to lower the house price while multi-down payment policy helps to stabilize the house price. However, for the policies to be effective, the government needs to spend a lot of efforts to examine the underlying economic fundamentals to avoid unintended results. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Wong, Long Ho. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 53-54). / Abstracts also in Chinese. / Abstract --- p.i / 擇要 --- p.ii / Acknowledgement --- p.iii / Chapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2. --- Hong Kong’s Post-Tsunami Economic Background --- p.4 / Chapter 3. --- Characteristics of the Hong Kong Residential Property Market --- p.7 / Chapter 3.1. --- Price and Transactions --- p.8 / Chapter 3.2. --- Market Structure --- p.10 / Chapter 3.3. --- Mortgage Financing --- p.11 / Chapter 4. --- Policies Launched --- p.11 / Chapter 4.1. --- Increasing supply --- p.12 / Chapter 4.2. --- Combating speculation --- p.12 / Chapter 4.3. --- Preventing excessive expansion in mortgage lending --- p.13 / Chapter 4.1. --- To enhance the transparency in the market --- p.13 / Chapter 5. --- Literature Review --- p.14 / Chapter 6. --- Choice of Model --- p.17 / Chapter 7. --- The Stein’s Benchmark Case --- p.19 / Chapter 7.1. --- General Form --- p.20 / Chapter 7.2. --- The Log Linear Form Utility --- p.22 / Chapter 8. --- The SSD Case --- p.23 / Chapter 8.1. --- General Form --- p.23 / Chapter 9. --- The Multi-Down Payment Case --- p.25 / Chapter 9.1. --- General Form --- p.25 / Chapter 9.2. --- The Stone-Geary Form log Utility --- p.29 / Chapter 9.3. --- The CES Utility --- p.29 / Chapter 10. --- Simulation and Results --- p.30 / Chapter 10.1. --- Choosing the parameter --- p.30 / Chapter 10.2. --- Results using Log Linear Utility --- p.32 / Chapter 10.2.1. --- Changing the SSD --- p.32 / Chapter 10.2.1. --- Changing the down payment requirement γ --- p.33 / Chapter 10.2.3. --- Changing the threshold in multi-down payment case --- p.35 / Chapter 10.2.4. --- Changing ý --- p.36 / Chapter 10.2.1. --- Changing the fundamental --- p.37 / Chapter 10.3. --- Results using Stone-Geary form Utility --- p.38 / Chapter 10.3.1. --- Changing the degree of necessity --- p.38 / Chapter 10.3.2. --- Changing SSD --- p.39 / Chapter 10.3.3. --- Changing the down payment portion γ --- p.39 / Chapter 10.3.4. --- Changing the down payment portion ý --- p.40 / Chapter 10.3.5. --- Changing the fundamental --- p.41 / Chapter 10.4. --- Results using CES form Utility --- p.41 / Chapter 10.4.1. --- Changing the elasticity of substitution by --- p.42 / Chapter 10.4.2. --- Changing SSD --- p.42 / Chapter 10.4.3. --- Changing the down payment portion --- p.43 / Chapter 10.4.4. --- Changing the down payment portion --- p.44 / Chapter 10.4.5. --- Changing the fundamental --- p.45 / Chapter 10.5. --- Summary of the results and policy implications --- p.45 / Chapter 11. --- Conclusion --- p.48 / Chapter 12. --- Tables and Charts --- p.49 / Chapter 13. --- References --- p.53 / Chapter 14. --- Appendix --- p.54

The rapid urbanization of modern cities poses several economic challenges and questions, such as energy efficiency, environmental sustainability, and the distribution of businesses. These elements significantly shape the dynamics of housing markets and urban migration patterns. My dissertation explores the causal impacts of environmental amenities and informational transparency on housing market valuations and the interactions within business sectors. In the first chapter of this thesis, we study the equilibrium effects of building energy efficiency information on the housing market. Building energy efficiency is crucial for identifying energy-saving potential, yet such information was not publicly available in the past. We examine the equilibrium effects of a regulation in New York City that mandates increased public access to information on building energy efficiency. We find that the effectiveness of disclosure policies in achieving desired market outcomes hinges significantly on the salience of the information disclosed. Our findings suggest that enhancing the salience of building energy efficiency disclosures leads to the emergence of energy efficiency premiums and incentivizes buildings to make energy efficiency improvements. Particularly, luxury buildings exhibit more pronounced responses. We develop and estimate an equilibrium model of demand for homes and building energy efficiency, as well as buildings' choices of energy efficiency levels. The results indicate that the increase in housing prices attributable to energy efficiency improvements significantly exceeds the savings in energy bills. In the second chapter of this thesis, we the strengths of agglomeration spillovers in the local non-tradable service sector using a comprehensive list of grocery store openings in the U.S. in 2018 -- 2019. We combine deep learning tools with propensity score estimation to find counterfactual opening sites and compare business outcomes surrounding actual and counterfactual sites. We find openings of grocery stores lead to significant growth in foot traffic to their opening locations and a 39 percent increase in foot traffic to businesses within 0.1 miles. The spillovers of demand are strongest between new grocery stores and businesses in wholesale and retail and hospitality services. We also find that grocery store openings lead to a 6.9 percentage point higher growth in the number of businesses within 0.1 miles of the openings 0--3 years later. My third chapter investigates the economic impacts of cleaning up heavily polluted waterways in urban neighborhoods. We leverage the Black-and-Odorous Water Program, a major urban environmental campaign in China, as a natural experiment to identify the causal impact of cleaner waterways on local housing prices, housing supply, and business growth. Implemented in 2016, the program remediated heavily polluted waterways in China's 36 most developed cities. Using a difference-in-differences estimator, we find that the program mainly benefits properties within 1 mile of cleaned-up waterways: These properties saw a 2.3% appreciation in market value after the program. Beyond the impacts on the housing market, we identify two novel mechanisms associated with community revitalization following pollution management and examine their implications for housing prices. First, new real estate developments near treated waterways are more likely to offer high-end units after the program. Second, service businesses flourish in neighborhoods near cleaned waterways, indicating a commercial rejuvenation of these areas.

This dissertation consists of three essays in applied microeconomics.The first chapter investigates the effect of coroner partisanship on COVID-19 death reporting. The politicization of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States has raised questions about the integrity and accuracy of death reporting, particularly in jurisdictions with elected, partisan coroners. Using mortality data from the CDC and manually collected data on county-level death certification systems and coroner party affiliation where applicable, I examine the parallel systems of appointed medical examiners and elected coroners and analyze the effect of partisanship on reported COVID-19 deaths. Cross-sectional comparisons do not seem to suggest counties with coroners report fewer deaths than those with medical examiners, and difference-in-differences specifications reveal limited evidence of a statistically significant but not economically meaningful effect of partisanship on reported COVID death counts. The second chapter examines the effect of new information on lead water pipes on housing prices. In 2016, the Water and Sewer Authority of Washington, DC released an online map that contains information on lead service lines (LSLs) for all properties in the district. Using the release as a natural experiment, I estimate the effect of the new information on prices of properties with and without LSLs. Recent literature has found that housing lead reduction policies such as remediation mandates have significant price effects. In DC, while the map’s release was followed by a marked increase in requests for water lead tests, neither a difference-in-differences model nor a repeat sales model captures a significant divergence between housing prices of the two types of properties after the release, implying the housing market response to the information was limited. The second chapter considers the effect of the marriage tax subsidy on the marriage decision of same-sex couples. The U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on United States v. Windsor in June 2013 compelled the federal government to recognize state-sanctioned same-sex marriages, including for tax purposes. The switch in the income tax filing status for same-sex couples meant that the marriage penalty or subsidy as a result of joint filing became a relevant factor that may enter couples’ marriage decisions. I construct a sample of married and cohabiting same-sex couples in 2012 and 2014 from public-use data of the American Community Survey. Using a difference-in-differences methodology, I do not find evidence that same-sex couples who would earn a higher marriage subsidy became more likely to marry after the Supreme Court ruling.