The degree work is focused on analysis of inflation with help of suitable econometric models. Inflation with it's forms and possibilities of measuring is described at the beginning of the paper. There is mentioned an importance of monitoring and analysing inflation in view of Czech national bank. Consequently there are described characteristics of time series, which are important from viewpoint of construction of econometric models. Next part of this paper is focused on characterization of econometrics models. At first there is vector autoregression model, in this connection there is discussed the essence of Granger causality and impulse reaction. There are also noticed both error correction model and vector error correction model. The empirical part of degree work involves the use of these models on selected macroeconomic time series of the Czech republic. The objective is to analyze the relationship between inflation and other individual macroeconomic quantities. There is established the optimal vector autoregressive model and the results of Granger causality and impulse reaction are interpretated. Both error correction model and vector error correction model examining cointegration are also applied.

Aim of this work is to answer question, if inflation targeting as a final goal of monetary policy, is possible in Islamic country with interest free financial system. Firs part of this work compares primer characteristics of Islamic financial system to conventional system of west countries. Second part focuses on possible macroeconomic model changes to correspond to Islamic system. Third part tests previous presumptions for inflation targeting. Final part proposes some measures to monetary policy performance.

The subject of the presented thesis is the relationship between monetary policy executed within inflation targeting, asset prices and financial stability in the broader sense in order to identify key problems of the current approach and draw some conclusions on how inflation targeting could possibly further evolve. Flexible inflation targeting remained the best available monetary policy framework, despite some revisions are apparently needed. It turned out, that changes in the financial sector have much greater impact on economic activity, than previously thought, and which the new approach will need to take into account.

This diploma thesis presents results of analysis of monetary policy transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic employing the vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The responsible authority for monetary policy is Czech National Bank that has been using the inflation targeting regime to conduct its monetary policy since 1998. The inflation rate changes, i.e. the changes in repo rate represent a monetary tool for steering actual inflation rate towards the projected or "target" inflation rate. The linear correlation between 2 weeks repo rate and 1 month PRIBOR rate is confirmed. The transmission mechanism is examined within the VAR framework and the relationships between the 1 month PRIBOR rate, gross domestic product and inflation rate are studied. The VAR model including 1 lag is considered as the best performing model. The relationships among variables are analysed by related approaches -- Granger causality, impulse response functions and cointegration. The ability of model to create forecasts is assessed and the ex ante forecasts are produced for one-year horizon. The effects of alternative monetary policies are the subject of scenario analysis.

The appropriateness of inflation targeting in South Africa is examined. South Africa has adopted flexible inflation targeting, wherein considerations for other macroeconomic variables are prioritized. There is evidence of growing concern regarding South Africa’s monetary policy framework., emerging primarily from the trade union movement and the communist party. The concerns are borne out of the developmental challenges that are still facing South Africa, ranging from high unemployment, high levels of poverty and inequality, and low economic growth. In attempt to understand these concerns, the following key economic variables GDP, Manufacturing Data, Exchange Rate, and Repo Rate were investigated using both Eviews and Stat tool. To eliminate the impact of the recent global recession, the data that has been analyzed is up to 2008. The research compares two periods, namely; the pre inflation targeting period (1990 – 1999) and post inflation targeting period (2000 – 2008). The study has found that despite unemployment, inequality and economic growth having being sluggish over the years, these factors are not as a result of inflation targeting. Evidence indicates that inflation has been reduced and stabilized since the adoption of inflation targeting. This research argues that this methodology is important for South Africa’s economic development, as evident by increased output. This research concludes that the implementation of inflation targeting is appropriate for South Africa. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

Inflationsmålets historia sträcker sig drygt 30 år tillbaka i tiden. En förutsägbar centralbank skapar möjligheter för marknadsaktörerna att sätta upp inflationsförväntningar i linje med det uppsatta målet som bidrar till att prisstegringstakten följer den önskade nivån. I dag har en stor majoritet av de mest ekonomiskt utvecklade länderna valt att införa ett inflationsmål som ett riktmärke för landets centralbank att rikta penningpolitiken mot. Samtidigt som inflationsnivåerna har sjunkit har också stora delar av länderna idag låga räntenivåer. Det innebär att centralbankens ammunition kan vara förbrukad ifall inflationen skulle behövas tryckas upp om inflationsnivån är under sitt mål. Syftet är att försöka förklara om inflationsmålet har haft någon betydelse avseende att minska inflationsvariansen samt om det även har haft en påverkan på BNP-gapet. För att undersöka inflationsmålets betydelse har vi undersökt flera ekonomiskt välutvecklade länder från inflationsmålets introduktion fram tills nu. Relevansen och legitimiteten i studien grundas på ett flertal tidigare studier. Studien ger en historisk överblick över inflationsnivån och dess stabilitet för länderna sedan 80-talet. Resultaten visar en stadig nedgång samt stabilisering på inflationen för samtliga länder. Däremot finner vi inga stöd för att det enbart skulle vara inflationsmålets förtjänst. Vi kan inte heller observera någon skillnad för BNP-gapet med eller utan inflationsmål. Även om vi inte kan hitta bevis på skillnader av att ha ett inflationsmål eller inte, så tror vi att det har haft en betydelse för de stabiliseringar som inflationen fått tack vare att aktörer lättare kan anpassa sina förväntningar mot målet. / The inflation target's history stretches back over 30 years. A predictable central bank creates opportunities for the market participants to set inflation expectations in line with what is set to be made at the price increase that follows the desired level. Today, a large majority of the most economically well-developed countries have chosen to introduce an inflation target as a benchmark for the country's central bank to target its monetary policy. At the same time as inflation levels have fallen, large proportion of the countries today also have low interest rates. This means that the central bank's ammunition can’t be used in case a rise of inflation is needed if the level of inflation is below its target. The purpose of the thesis is to explain whether the inflation target has had any significance in reducing the inflation variance and whether it has had an impact on the output-gap. To investigate the significance of the inflation target, we have examined several economically well-developed countries from the introduction of the inflation target until now. The relevance and legitimacy of the study is based on a number of previous studies in the field of inflation targeting. The study provides a historical overview of inflation levels and stability for countries since the 1980s. The results show a steady decline and stabilization of inflation for all countries. We find no support for it being solely the merit of the inflation target. Nor can we observe any difference for the GDP gap with or without inflation targets. Although we cannot find evidence of differences in having an inflation target or not, we believe that it has had an impact on the stabilizations that inflation has gained due to the fact that actors can more easily adjust their expectations to the target.

Karel Husník: Economic and Legal Position of the Czech National Bank in the Environment of Inflation and Deflation The aim of this thesis is to analyse the position of the Czech National Bank (CNB) from the legal and economic point of view and to analyse the monetary policy instruments which the central bank can use efficiently in inflation targeting. The primary criterium is macroeconomic environment of inflation, respectively deflation. The thesis newly divides the monetary policy instruments on conventional and non-conventional. The thesis uses multidisciplinary approach, it combines economic and legal point of view. The methodology of this thesis is analysis, description in historical projection and comparation. The laws of the Czech Republic and the documents of CNB, which are available online, are used. Author also worked with data from the Czech Statistical Office and with various economic studies and papers. The first chapter of the thesis analyses position of independent Czech National Bank in its constitutional and lawful position. The Law of the Czech National Bank and the Constitution of the Czech Republic defines the purpose of the CNB and her relationship with other components of state power. The CNB's monetary policy objective is set forth in Article 98 of the Constitution of the...

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Yes / We examine whether the inflation rates of the countries that pursueinflation targeting policies have converged as opposed to the expe-rience of the OECD non-inflation targeters. Using a methodologyintroduced by Pesaran (2007a), we examine the stationarity prop-erties of the inflation differentials. This approach has the advantageof avoiding setting arbitrarily a specific country as the benchmarkeconomy. Our results indicate that the inflation rates converge irre-spective of the monetary policy framework.