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Traditional methods for evaluating investments in state-of-the-art technology are sometimes found lacking in providing equitable recommendations for project selection. The major cause for this is the inability of these methods to handle adequately uncertainty and imprecision, and account for every aspect of the project, economic and non-economic, tangible and intangible. Fuzzy set theory provides an alternative to probability theory for handling uncertainty, while at the same time being able to handle imprecision. It also provides a means of closing the gap between the human thought process and the computer, by enabling the establishment of linguistic quantifiers to describe intangible attributes. Fuzzy set theory has been used successfully in other fields for aiding the decision-making process. The intention of this research has been the application of fuzzy set theory to aid investment decision making. The research has led to the development of a structured model, based on theoretical algorithms developed by Buckley and others. The model looks at a project from three different standpoints- economic, operational, and strategic. It provides recommendations by means of five different values for the project desirability, and results of two sensitivity analyses. The model is tested on a hypothetical case study. The end result is a model that can be used as a basis for promising future development of investment analysis models. / Master of Science / incomplete_metadata

Wang, Yu. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2011. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 33-35). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.ii / 摘要 --- p.iii / Chapter I. --- Introduction and Overview --- p.1 / Chapter II. --- Literature Review --- p.6 / Chapter 1. --- Price Impact Literatures --- p.6 / Chapter 2. --- Cost Measurement Literatures --- p.9 / Chapter 3. --- Trading Friction Literatures --- p.11 / Chapter III. --- Sample Description --- p.13 / Chapter 1. --- Data Source --- p.13 / Chapter 2. --- Selection Criteria for Sample Stocks --- p.14 / Chapter 3. --- Summary of Statistics --- p.15 / Chapter i. --- General Description --- p.15 / Chapter ii. --- Shanghai Stock Exchange versus Shenzhen Stock Exchange --- p.16 / Chapter iii. --- Normality Test --- p.17 / Chapter IV. --- Regression Analysis --- p.19 / Chapter 1. --- Sales Premium Estimation --- p.19 / Chapter 2. --- Statistics of the Estimated Sales Premium --- p.20 / Chapter 3. --- Factors that Impact the Sales Premium --- p.22 / Chapter i. --- Panel Data Regression --- p.22 / Chapter ii. --- Results and Interpretations --- p.23 / Chapter iii. --- Sales Premium versus Economic Events --- p.25 / Chapter IV. --- Robustness Tests. --- p.27 / Chapter 1. --- Common Robustness Tests --- p.27 / Chapter i. --- Validity of Fixed-Effect Model --- p.27 / Chapter ii. --- Autocorrelation Problem: Durbin-Watson tests --- p.27 / Chapter iii. --- Heteroskedasticity --- p.28 / Chapter iv. --- Consistency of Estimators --- p.28 / Chapter 2. --- Additional Variable for Sales Premium Estimation in Shenzhen Stock Exchange --- p.29 / Chapter V. --- Conclusion --- p.30 / Bibliography --- p.33 / Chapter Appendix A. --- Graphs --- p.36 / Chapter Appendix B. --- Tables --- p.41

The project examines the relationship between trade interdependency and correlation of market returns between the United States and the four emerging economies of Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines. The author analyzed statistical data for trade interdependency and market return to determine if there is a pattern that would provide the basis for increasing the return of a security portfolio without increasing the risk to the investor. The project analysis relied on mathematical formulas to measure the trade relationships between the selected countries and to calculate the measure of return and measure of risk of investing in each emergent market.

This dissertation is based on the hypothesis that a third dimension, namely investment time horizon, can add value to the more conventional two-dimensional methodology of assessing the relative risk and return attributes of various assets and portfolios in order to enhance investment decisions. This study shows that time horizons should be considered in the investment decision making process and provides concrete evidence that a methodology that is not cognizant of investment time horizon is prone to extensive long-term opportunity cost risk. In addition to providing evidence of investment time horizon relevance, the study makes suggestions as to how time horizons could be incorporated into the risk return assessments of various asset classes and also presents a framework for the more holistic assessment of asset class properties while incorporating time horizons. / Business Management / Thesis (M. Com. (Business Management))

This dissertation is based on the hypothesis that a third dimension, namely investment time horizon, can add value to the more conventional two-dimensional methodology of assessing the relative risk and return attributes of various assets and portfolios in order to enhance investment decisions. This study shows that time horizons should be considered in the investment decision making process and provides concrete evidence that a methodology that is not cognizant of investment time horizon is prone to extensive long-term opportunity cost risk. In addition to providing evidence of investment time horizon relevance, the study makes suggestions as to how time horizons could be incorporated into the risk return assessments of various asset classes and also presents a framework for the more holistic assessment of asset class properties while incorporating time horizons. / Business Management / Thesis (M. Com. (Business Management))

The purpose of the present research paper was three fold. First, determine if there is a trade interdependence between the United States and Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Sweden, and Baltic States). Second, determine if there is correlation between the respective equity markets. Third, determine if the changes in the trade relations lead to the changes in stock market correlations. The hypothesis of the project was that weaker trade relations between two countries would lead to lower correlation between their stock markets, providing beneficial opportunities for portfolio diversification. The overall objective is to ascertain if Nordic markets are good targets to hedge portfolio risk for U.S. investors, and if the risks of investing in these markets would be rewarded by the higher returns.

The thesis analyzed the performance of 5,987 mutual funds using a database called Steele Mutual Fund Experts and compared the predicting ability of various measures of performance. The measures discussed in the thesis are Treynor Ratio, Sharpe Ratio, Jensen's Alpha, Graham-Harvey-1 (GH-1), and Graham-Harvey-2 (GH-2). The performance measures are mostly used by professional money managers and scholars for literary purposes.

The thesis examined the differences between the Chinese market, a fast-growing emerging market, and that of the United States, a well-known developed market. In order to understand the overall performance of the Chinese stock market, the research compared the risk and returns characteristics of Chinese stock markets using the S & P 500 Index for the 2000-2005 period. Findings show that significant differences exist between the Chinese and the U.S. markets. The thesis also attempted to identify the characteristics of the Chinese markets that hinder their efficiency.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Allen M. Featherstone / The cost of energy is a major concern for the United States and its citizens. With domestic demand at all time highs, the need for renewable fuels has become a key in reducing our countries reliance on imported energy. It is important for the U.S. to examine the feasibility of producing its own energy from renewable resources that can be grown domestically. Along with the potential financial gains from renewable fuels, the ability to control the supply of energy for the U.S. is also very important. With the amount of oil imported by the U.S., the ability to produce more of our nations needs and not be forced to rely on other countries could be important for our country moving forward. With the political unrest in many oil producing areas, the security of energy independence is a goal for the U.S. This study uses United States Department of Agriculture, Pro Exporter, Advance Trading, and other statistical sources to analyze the economic feasibility of an ethanol plant near Des Moines, IA. It looks at the available supply of corn in the area as well as the production of ethanol and distillers grains. An increase in the price of imported oil does not necessarily results in an economically viable ethanol plant. Many variables go into the economic viability of an ethanol plant and consumers will still buy the low cost good, and that may be imported energy. Some of these variables affecting economic viability include corn price and availability, denaturant price, natural gas price, ethanol demand and distillers grains demand. With the push for cleaner air and a cleaner environment, ethanol is also used as a gasoline additive to reduce emissions. As more states regulate a higher inclusion rate of ethanol, this will continue to create greater demand. A 100 million gallon ethanol plant is an economically viable investment in the Des Moines area, but when looking at the sensitivity tests, the better investment option if investors want to enter the ethanol industry, is to buy an existing ethanol plant.