PhD / Thesis (PhD (Business Management))--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / The objective of this study is to provide a new approach to assessing fund management and to establish whether there is empirical support for this approach. The new approach will improve investors’ decision making with respect to the management and investment of their assets. We construct equity-only funds from quarterly equity holdings of unit trusts. The funds are ranked each quarter using various performance measures and segmented into winners and losers; firstly according to the median of the ranks and secondly according to quintile rankings. The funds’ rankings are examined for evidence of persistence. Secondly, a performance attribution method is introduced that identifies the static (“buy-and-hold”) portion and the trading portion of a fund. The funds are examined in terms of characteristics that distinguish between funds according to how the manager has chosen to organise (or construct) the fund. These characteristics are the static portion, the trading portion, the size of the static portion and the extent of the overlap between funds’ holdings and the large, mid and small capitalisation indices. Relationships between winners and losers (based on quartiles) and the fund characteristics are examined. Finally, the trading activities of investment managers, for their funds, are examined. This examination begins with the use of traditional measures that focus on a holistic approach to evaluating trading ability. The examination is enhanced with the introduction of a new reductionism approach, where the success of individual trades is examined. The results of the earlier performance attribution are included in the evaluation of investment managers’ abilities to add value to investors’ assets via trading activities.

published_or_final_version / Business Administration / Master / Master of Business Administration

published_or_final_version / Statistics and Actuarial Science / Master / Master of Philosophy

In this study, we examine the predictive power of Morningstar’s new ratings for mutual funds’ future performance and compare its predictive power with four competing predictors. We also examine Morningstar’s new ratings’ predictive power in bull and bear periods. Furthermore, we compare the predictive power of the new and old star-ratings. We perform all these tests for both U.S. and Canadian equity funds. We use a regression model and non-parametric tests in this study. The results suggest Morningstar’s new ratings accurately rank funds and predict out-of-sample performance of only five-star rated complete funds for short- and medium-terms for U.S., and for medium-term only for Canada. Also, predictive power of Morningstar’s new ratings is low compared to four alternative predictors for both countries. Further, the new star ratings accurately predicts for bear period for both markets. The old ratings (new ratings), however relatively predict better for U.S. funds (Canadian funds). / ix, 184 leaves ; 29 cm

Master of Science / Department of Animal Sciences and Industry / Robert L. Weaber / The dynamic environments, varying production practices, and general biological uncertainty associated with bovine reproduction makes informed, strategic decision making regarding the implementation of bovine reproductive technology a great challenge for producers. One might also argue that traditionally, ET’s primary focus of genetic improvement has greatly overshadowed any consideration of short to mid-term financial gain. To accomplish the objective of creating an economic risk analysis tool for user-defined embryo transfer (ET) programs, a circumstantial, stochastic prediction model utilizing @Risk© software to generate comparable economic values as an aid in the ET decision making process has been created. More realistic than the use of means in deterministic models, distributions defining the biological uncertainty for a multitude of reproductive outcomes are estimated through extensive literature review and limited industry sources. Applying the Latin Hypercube variation of Monte Carlo simulation, a sample value from the descriptive distribution associated with each stochastic variable is included in an iteration of the simulation. Through large numbers of iterations with dynamic combinations of variables, the process culminates in a distribution of possible values for the net present value (NPV), annuity equivalent net present value (ANPV), and return on investment (ROI) associated with the model described scenario of in-vivo derived (IVD) or in-vitro produced (IVP). Finally, using the distributions of NPV, ANPV, and ROI a decision maker can assess the economic risk linked to a user-defined ET program. To further complicate matters, cattle producers are now presented with a choice between two primary methods of ET. IVD ET describes the traditional method of ET that involves follicular stimulation and insemination of a donor female followed by the collection of fertilized embryos from the uterus. IVP commonly refers to the method of generating transferable embryos by collecting oocytes by ovarian aspiration; in-vitro fertilization of the collected oocytes; and incubated maturation of the fertilized oocytes. Encompassed within the two methods of ET exist several different sub-techniques, principally regarding the exception or inclusion of follicular synchronization and/or stimulation before ovum pick-up (OPU) in IVP procedures. Ultimately, operators must decide whether ET programs, of any type, serve as an economically viable means to increase rate of genetic improvement or take advantage of marketing opportunities. Although several economic value predictors for ET programs already exist (Beltrame et al. 2010), the opportunity remains to create more applicable models for Bos taurus beef production and varying marketing avenues in the U.S. This circumstantial, stochastic simulation model can serve as an aid in the ET decision making process by generating output that allows for the financial risk and sensitivity analysis of a user-defined ET program.

This study used protocol analysis to identify key variables in the venture capital investment decision-making process. The study used a fictional business plan which was based on six actual business plans. This fictional business plan was presented to ten venture capitalists who were asked to review it to decide whether to interview the investee. The protocols obtained from these subjects were analyzed to determine patterns within the subjects' review. The sections of the business plan which were commonly reviewed first were the deal structure, the executive summary, and the management section. The management section was used by the greatest number of subjects. The market section was used the greatest number of times. The data were also organized by type of operators used in each subject's protocols. Information Search/Retrieval operators were most common, followed by Task Structuring/Set Goal operators. When classified into the four major categories of Task Structuring/Set Goal, Information Acquisition, Analytical/ Inferential, and Choice operators, Analytical/Inferential operators were used most frequently. Choice operators were least used. The phrases were analyzed by the relevant section in the business plan. The market received the greatest number of references, followed by references to the product and to management. However, when references to the income statement and balance sheet were combined as phrases relevant to the financial statements, the financial statements were referred to more frequently than the product or the people. The subjects appeared to use an unidentified choice program within which certain models could be identified as subroutines. The subjects used an elimination-by-aspects model to screen the business plan. If the business plan met the criteria within the elimination-by-aspects model of the subject, the subject used an additive/nonlinear model for the remainder of the review. The results of this study indicate that financial statements provide information important in the venture capital investment decision-making process. This finding is contrary to the advice usually given to potential venture capital investees.

This thesis includes four essays, of which each comprises two original contributions. Based on this thesis’ eight contributions, we add knowledge or understanding to the literatures on responsible investment, research output analyses and investment performance evaluation. First, we develop the first generic, reliable approach to benchmark research area output (e.g. journal articles or books), which we expect to appeal to governments’ increasing interest in monitoring their research funding investments. Second, we apply this approach to the research area of responsible investment, which is currently backed by an about $ 7 trillion industry. We find that the (quality weighted) quantity of responsible investment’s research output is statistically significantly under-proportional compared with peer research areas. One of several explanations for this result lies in the intransparency of the current responsible investment literature. Third, we develop an approach to research synthesis, which improves a research area’s transparency without experiencing many weaknesses of conventional literature reviews. We title this approach Influential Literature Analysis (ILA). Fourth, we apply ILA to the relatively intransparent responsible investment literature. One of our many findings is that responsible assets with their ceteris paribus under-proportional total risk might appear artificially unattractive when assessed by the most common investment performance measure, the Sharpe ratio, which is biased in favour of high risk assets due to its currently unsolved negative excess return problem. Fifth, we develop a generic, reliable and robust solution to the negative Sharpe ratio problem, which investors can customise according to their specific increasing incremental disutility of risk functions. Six, we generalise our solution to the negative Sharpe ratio problem, which allows us to solve the negative (excess) return problems of over twenty other investment performance measures. Seventh, we develop independent, statistically sophisticated tests of the sufficiency and quality of suggested solutions to the negative Sharpe ratio problem, since all existing tests a-priori assume the superiority of a specific solution. In contrast, our tests are only based on the Sharpe ratio itself and two basic axioms of investment theory. Hence, they are conceptually unrelated to our solutions. Eighth, we apply these tests using two different data samples to all existing solutions to the negative Sharpe ratio problem. We find that investors are best advised to use our solutions, the H⁶-, H⁷- or H⁸-measure, in their evaluation of investment performance from a Sharpe ratio like perspective.

A research report submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree M.Com. Masters (Finance) in the School of Economic and Business Sciences at the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg / This study empirically investigates the existence of the Samuelson Hypothesis in South African markets. The Samuelson Hypothesis states that the volatility of futures contracts increase as the expiration of the contracts approaches. It is an important phenomenon to account for when setting margins, creating hedging strategies and valuing options on futures. The study utilizes daily closing prices of agricultural and non-agricultural futures contracts for a period varying from 2002 to 2015. In total, eleven contracts were examined over this period, yet only one (White Maize) consistently shows support for the Samuelson Hypothesis. The Negative Covariance and State Variable Hypothesis were tested, but could not provide an alternative explanation for the lack of relationship between the time to maturity and volatility of futures contracts. / MT2017

A research report submitted to the Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment, University of the Witwatersrand, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Engineering. Johannesburg, 2017 / The period from 2006 to 2015 was a turbulent one for mining companies. The end of the 2000s commodity super cycle resulted in all-time high market values for most commodity based companies, followed by a rapid decline in value with the onset of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 and a similar rapid recovery following this. Whilst much of this change in value was driven by commodity prices, the inconsistent performance between companies suggests that there are other factors affecting mining company value. To determine the key drivers of company value, four diversified and international mining companies which represent close to 50% of the 2006 industry revenue were selected for analysis. These were Anglo American, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and CVRD-Vale. Financial and production data was collected to analyse different potential value drivers. Because of its suitability for comparison of company value, the market based valuation approach was selected as the company valuation technique. Enterprise value (EV) was the metric used for company value since this provides a measure of the real market value of a firm as a whole business. Eight potential value drivers, which include production output, commodity price, revenue, EBITDA margin, EBITDA multiple, gearing ratio, net debt to EBITDA ratio and ROCE, were selected for analysis. Each potential value driver was tracked against EV to determine if there was any correlation between the value driver and EV. Also, the Pearson correlation method was used to determine correlation between each potential value driver and EV. Production output and commodity price in isolation were found not to drive company value. However, when combined to calculate revenue, had a very high correlation to EV with an average Pearson coefficient of 0.8. EBITDA multiple was also found to be a key driver of company value, with this metric closely aligned to revenue (Pearson coefficient of 0.6). The two debt metrics, gearing ratio and net debt to EBITDA were found to only have a correlation to EV in times of declining commodity prices and revenue. EBITDA margin and ROCE were found to have no correlation to EV and as such were not considered to be key drivers of company value. Mining companies must ensure that they focus on the correct value drivers to ensure those they influence do impact the company value. / MT 2017

A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand, in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D), September 2016 / This study considers momentum in share prices, per Jegadeesh and Titman (1993, 2001), on the cross-section of shares listed on the JSE. The key research objective is to define whether momentum is significant, independent and priced. ‘Significant’ implies that momentum produces significantly positive nominal and risk-adjusted profits, ‘independent’ means that momentum is independent of other non-momentum stylistic factor premiums and finally, ‘priced’ suggests that momentum is a priced factor on the JSE and thereby contributes to the cross-sectional variation in share returns. In order to determine the significance of the momentum premium on the JSE, univariate momentum sorts are conducted that consider variation in portfolio estimation and holding periods, weighting methodologies as well as liquidity constraints, price impact and microstructure effects. The results of the univariate sorts clearly indicate that momentum on the JSE is both significant and profitable assuming estimation and holding periods between three and twelve months. Furthermore, consistent with international and local literature, momentum profits reverse assuming holding periods in excess of 24 months. In order to determine whether momentum is independent, bivariate sorts and time-series attribution regressions are conducted using momentum and six non-momentum factors, namely: Size, Value, Liquidity, Market Beta, Idiosyncratic Risk and Currency Risk. The results of the bivariate sorts and time-series attribution regressions clearly indicate that momentum on the JSE is largely independent of the nonmomentum stylistic factors considered. Lastly, cross-sectional panel regressions are conducted where momentum is applied, in conjunction with the considered non-momentum factors, as an independent variable in order assess the relationship between the factors and expected returns on a share-by-share basis. The results of the panel data cross-sectional regressions clearly indicate that momentum produces a consistently significant and independent premium, conclusively proving that momentum is a priced factor that contributes to the cross-sectional variation in share returns listed on the JSE. / XL2018